2024 NCAA Tournament Betting Preview: Tips & Predictions From Our Experts
March is here! The stakes are high and the drama is about to unfold. RotoGrinders and ScoresAndOdds have you covered every step of the way.
The SAO experts already have plenty of premium picks for the opening round. Let’s bring in our guys Erik Beimfohr, Jon Schiller, Jourdan Case, and Justin Carlucci to take a deeper dive into the field of 68!
What surprised you the most about the tournament seeding?
Beimfohr: A lot. This feels like the wildest bracket that I can remember. The committee basically admitted their laziness by giving Duquesne an #11 seed, which was reserved for VCU. New Mexico is an #11 seed from the Mountain West, but they are the 2nd-best Mountain West team via KenPom and would be favored over all other Mountain West teams besides San Diego State (and they’re 2.5-point favorites over #6 seed Clemson).
There are over-seedings and under-seedings galore, but a couple of regions really stuck out. UConn, the number #1 overall seed, somehow got the toughest region by far in the East with the 4th overall KenPom team as a #4 seed (Auburn). Plus, they’ll have to deal with Iowa State, Illinois, BYU, San Diego State, or even a potential matchup with FAU in the 2nd Round. Meanwhile, the worst #1 seed, UNC, draws the weakest region with a vulnerable Arizona as the #2 seed and some very flawed squads all across the West bracket.
Schiller: Two things. First, the entire Mountain West was given no respect. Just about every team was one seed off their projected lines from BracketMatrix (despite getting all the teams in?). It was a bit surprising to see them all seeded so low.
Second, the BYU/Duquesne matchup made me laugh. Duquesne profiled as a #13 seed, but I guess the committee gave one spot for the winner of the A-10 final and was too lazy to make a contingency bracket in case Duquesne won. On the other side, it ended up working out, as BYU profiled as a #4 seed or a #5 seed. But because they cannot play on Sundays, they ended up getting a #6 seed. So, we effectively have 5 games between 4/13 seeds this year.
Case: Auburn, a #4 seed?! The Tigers were a top-8 team in KenPom for most of the year, 5th in NET, and rolled through the SEC tournament just to get banished to the #4 seed in UConn’s region. Bruce Pearl must have ruffled some feathers within the committee.
Carlucci: I’m with Jourdan regarding Auburn as a #4 seed, but I also really thought Iowa State was going to grab one of the top seeds. North Carolina is ranked 9th on both KenPom and BartTorvik. ISU had a boatload of quality wins since the end of February and ran through Kansas State, Baylor, and Houston in the conference tournament.
Which First Four team has the best odds at making a Cinderella run?
Beimfohr: Colorado – I have already bet on the Buffs in the First Four, and they are a legit sneaky option to make a run. They are “underseeded” not relative to their resume but relative to their talent. They were not healthy for much of the year, but they are now, and the Buffs have as much talent as many of the big boys in the dance. They have an elite guard in KJ Simpson (who is up to 10th in KenPom player of the year rankings), size inside, and versatile NBA-caliber wings in Cody Williams and Tristan da Silva.
Schiller: Colorado – They are the best analytical team in the First Four by a wide margin and got a very soft draw with the weakest #2 seed in Marquette, who might not have Tyler Kolek at full strength, if at all.
Case: Colorado – The path for Colorado State is very enticing in that incredibly soft Midwest region, but Colorado is a very talented team, sitting at 15th overall over the last month (per BartTorvik). KJ Simpson is the type of player that can carry a team deep in March. Florida doesn’t play any defense and will be without Micah Handlogten. Marquette has Shaka Smart on the sideline, who hasn’t had a relevant team in March since the 2011 VCU Cinderella run, and Tyler Kolek’s status is also unclear at this point. The next in line of Kentucky/NC State/Texas Tech all have issues of their own. I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see this Colorado team playing in the Elite 8.
Carlucci: Colorado – I’m betting on the Buffaloes (moneyline) to beat Boise State. They have plenty of advantages in this matchup, and they’re one of the most efficient teams in the country. The big thing that stuck out to me was that the Buffaloes are the highest-ranked adjusted offense that Boise State will see this season. I think it’ll be just a bit overwhelming for them to try and handle the Buffs.
What is your favorite Round 1 pick against the spread?
Beimfohr: Mississippi State +1.5 – Getting right down to it with the first game on Thursday. In my opinion, Michigan State has been massively overrated all season, from the very first preseason poll all the way until now. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills, but they only beat three tournament teams all season (Baylor in December, Illinois at home, and Northwestern without Ty Berry and Matthew Nicholson at home). I do not trust AJ Hoggard against a tough, physical Mississippi State team that struggled down the stretch but took Tennessee to the woodshed in the SEC Tournament (and beat them in January). Maybe most importantly, Sparty can really struggle on the interior, which is where Mississippi State can feast with their dominant big, Tolu Smith, and they have a tough, shot-making guard in Josh Hubbard.
Schiller: Auburn -12.5 – Yale got the worst possible draw in the 1st Round. While Auburn had a resume that reflected a #3 seed, they got a #4 seed but have a #1 seed analytical profile. When the Tigers are clicking, they’re arguably the best team in the nation. Yale has one of the worst statistical profiles to pull off an upset. They do not turn you over, and they don’t shoot 3-pointers particularly well (which is surprising for an Ivy squad). Yale loves to try to score inside with Matt Knowling and Danny Wolf, but those two beating up on Ivy teams is going to be a lot different than trying to go up against Broome/Williams/Cardwell/CBM. This is one of the worst matchups for any team in the 1st Round. Like Auburn has done many times this season, I expect them to win by at least 20 points.
Case: James Madison +5.5 – JMU finally gets to prove that beating Michigan State way back in November wasn’t a fluke. They have the length and athleticism to match up with Wisconsin on the perimeter and a whole arsenal of shooters to burn Wisconsin’s inability to prevent wide open 3s. The Dukes should be able to do enough to keep this one close and have a chance to extend the nation’s longest win streak.
Carlucci: Baylor -13.5 – I can’t say that I’m Baylor’s biggest fan, and they have surely disappointed early in the tournament at times across the last decade. But I’m just not so sure that Colgate belongs in this one. The Raiders haven’t played anyone in the KenPom top 100 rankings since 2023 (Dec. 17th)!
The Bears are by far their toughest task in months, and I think the physicality is going to overwhelm them. Colgate is terrible on the offensive glass and doesn’t draw any fouls. A lot of one-and-dones and no source of points from the line is bad news Bears! Again, I’m not even a Baylor truther by any stretch of the imagination, but a game like this could snowball quickly for Colgate. Baylor has absolutely thumped most of the teams it played outside of the KP top 100, and there’s a good chance you could add the Raiders to that list in a few days.
What is your favorite Round 1 game total pick?
Beimfohr: Oregon vs. South Carolina Under 133.5 points – South Carolina got fat on some of the bad SEC, and this matchup is a tough one for its offense. Oregon head coach Dana Altman is a March wizard with his mixing-and-matching defensively, and he used that to confuse the Pac 12 en route to a shocking tournament win.
South Carolina plays at the 8th-slowest tempo in the country, and the Gamecocks certainly aren’t going to speed up in the tournament against a team morphing between zone and man. The Ducks haven’t allowed more than 68 points in their last 4 games, including holding high-powered Arizona to just 59 in the Pac 12 semis. They’re also playing much slower now thanks to some limited depth and heavy burden on their backcourt of Jermaine Couisnard and Jackson Shelstad.
Schiller: Morehead State vs. Illinois Over 146.5 Points – Many times I stray from taking the overs in blowout games, as the losing team could end up getting blown out and causing the game to go way under the total. I don’t think that happens here, as Illinois is one of the best offenses in the country. But they are also apathetic on defense and cannot be bothered to stop other teams at times. Morehead State has a go-to player in Riley Minix (who matches up well against Illinois) and a couple of 3-point shooters in Jordan Lathon and Kalil Thomas. They can keep up in this one, as KenPom has this at 152 and BartTorvik predicts 150. I would play it up to 149.
Case: Northwestern vs. FAU Over 141.5 Points – Northwestern tries to grind out a slow-paced, half-court game. But the Wildcats also foul like crazy on defense (39.4 FTA/FGA allowed) and can score with the best of them on offense (30th in KenPom ADJOE, 21st in BT last month). We all know FAU wants to run-and-gun offensively and have already dropped 80+ points on other snails like Texas A&M, Liberty, and North Texas. Both teams should be able to get their offenses going here, and there should be no shortage of points. KenPom has this at 147, and BartTorvik is at 145.
Carlucci: James Madison vs. Wisconsin Over 145 Points – Not sure exactly what we’ll get out of JMU, as they have had quite the cupcake schedule despite an incredible season. One thing for sure is that JMU will play with some pace, as they rank top 75 in KenPom’s tempo. They don’t use much of the shot clock, and opponents are scoring fairly quickly against them on the other side. That helps against Wisconsin’s sluggish pace. But the pros of the Badgers outweigh the cons, as they rank 13th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Their defense is also atrocious, which isn’t good for their title aspirations, but great for this over. Wisco ranks 275th in defensive eFG%, 345th in defensive 3P%, and almost dead last in block percentage. Two good offenses, one fast team, and one bad defense. I’ll take the over.
Do you have a favorite statistic to weigh in handicapping tournament matchups/predictions?
Beimfohr: It sort of changes on a matchup-by-matchup basis. Most teams have specific strengths, weaknesses, or styles of play, and those lend themselves better to specific matchups. If underdog mid/low-majors play a physical, bruising style, it is tough for them to match up with the same style against one of the best teams in the country. You’d rather see them face a more finesse team. And with shooting variance being so tough to predict, I’m a big fan of trying to gain an edge in possessions via offensive rebounding and turnovers.
Schiller: When looking for upsets from smaller conference teams, I am looking for the great equalizers to being a less athletic team – forcing turnovers, 3-point shooting, and great guard play.
Case: Guard play – The old cliche lives on. I don’t care how good your 7’4” center is (and if he has a cool mustache) or how dominant he is in the paint. If you don’t have guards that can control the game on both ends of the floor, you aren’t winning anything. Bonus points, however, if you have guard play AND a big that can stretch the floor. Big men that can step out on the perimeter opens up more space for elite guards to do their thing.
Carlucci: I like to look at the pace and the tendencies of each team. The stars can align when weaknesses and strengths of two teams clash with each other.
What long shot has the best odds to win the title?
Beimfohr: FAU (150-1, FanDuel) – It has clearly been a rather disappointing regular season for last year’s Final Four Cinderella, but I feel like it’s swung too far the other way on the Owls. Clearly, the draw is tough. A 2nd Round matchup with UConn and the toughest region makes this an extremely difficult path. But despite their ups and downs, this team can beat anyone in the country when they play their best. They have the guard play and a great big in Vlad Goldin to contend with the big boys. They beat Arizona and Texas A&M this season and had Illinois beat before a 2nd-half collapse.
Schiller: Alabama (40-1, DraftKings) – Yes, Alabama could lose in the 1st Round, as their defense is very bad. This would also be a bucking of the trend of the KenPom 20/20 rule, as there’s zero chance they would get inside 20th in defensive efficiency, even with a tournament run. That being said, they get the easiest region by far, as UNC is the worst #1 seed, and we all know how Arizona has been in the tournament under both Tommy Lloyd and Sean Miller in the last 15 years. That being said, this is the #2 offense in the country and a team that can beat anyone when it’s clicking. They have experienced guard play and are elite free throw shooters (something that’s imperative when playing close games down the stretch). When taking a long shot, we need upside, and Alabama certainly provides that if they can figure out how to play a lick of defense.
Case: Duke (40-1, FanDuel) – We’re getting a huge discount thanks to Houston standing in the way of their Sweet 16 hopes. While Houston is a great basketball team, they are very reliant on jump shots and aren’t a highly effective jump-shooting team overall (as evidenced by their 49.7% eFG%, which sits at 229th in the country). Duke is a definitive top-10 offensive team, with four full-time players shooting at least 35% from 3, and they have the possibility of getting Caleb Foster back at some point. There is an argument to be made that Kyle Filipowski is the best player in the country, and the backcourt of Roach/McCain/Proctor is as good as anyone. They’re also right on the cusp of the legendary KenPom 20/20 rule, with their defense currently sitting at 26th.
Carlucci: Wisconsin (80-1, BetMGM) – The Badgers’ defense isn’t very good. But Wisco plays methodically slow and has KenPom’s 13th-ranked efficient offensive. Their star, AJ Storr, is playing his best basketball of the season at just the right time. The Badgers also do not turn the ball over, which is critical this time of the year.
Let’s take a look at their path. JMU – the advanced numbers look good, but they’ve played nobody. A miserable Duke team (for its standard) in the 2nd Round. And then a potential matchup with Houston? The Cougars play incredible defense but clearly they’re vulnerable, as evident by getting dismantled by Iowa State a few days ago. The Badgers have wins against many tournament teams and looked great in the conference tournament after beating Maryland, Northwestern, and Purdue before dropping a close one to Illinois in the championship. This number is just a little long.
Which #12 seed or higher has the best chance for an opening-round upset?
Beimfohr: James Madison over Wisconsin – It feels a little like Wisconsin is getting a pass for its horrible play across an extended stretch, much thanks to a miracle win against Purdue in the Big Ten tourney where Edey was in foul trouble. Prior to the Big Ten tourney, they had lost 8 of 11 games, which included losses to Michigan, Rutgers, and Indiana. They do not have a dominant talent, and I definitely do not trust AJ Storr to shoot well or Chucky Hepburn to play well in a do-or-die game, especially against a really strong James Madison squad. Terrence Edwards and TJ Bickerstaff are big-time athletes who can give Wisconsin fits, and we know they can knock off overrated Big Ten teams since they did so in the opening game of their season against Michigan State.
Schiller: Samford over Kansas – This is not a typical Kansas team, and I am very concerned about the health of both Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar. I imagine that Dickinson is going to be fine, but McCullar has been dealing with nagging injuries almost the entire season. Kansas looked horrendous against Cincinnati in the Big 12 Tournament, and they had lost 4 of 5 games coming into it. On the other side, Samford profiles well in KenPom (83rd), and they have the three characteristics of an upset pick. The Bulldogs have experienced guard play (Rylan Jones, Jaden Campbell, and Dallas Graziani), elite 3-point shooting (39.3%, good for 8th in the nation), and an elite turnover rate (21.6%, 16th in the nation).
Dajuan Harris is susceptible to pressure as well, having a 21% turnover rate this season. I am a little bit concerned that Samford ended up losing by 53 to Purdue in their opener, but that was a LONG time ago. Purdue shot nearly 60% from downtown in that game, as Samford sold out to stop Edey, while shooting just 16% when it was their turn. This game is going to be a lot closer.
Case: Charleston over Alabama – These teams actually have very similar profiles in that they shoot a ton of 3-pointers and don’t really play defense. Bama has not played great basketball down the stretch (mostly due to complete ineptitude on the defensive end), as they sit at 61st overall in BartTorvik’s ratings over the last month. Charleston actually sits higher at 44th. Even more drastic are the defensive metrics over that span, where Bama sits at 213th (!!) with Charleston coming in at 67th. This game has an incredibly wide range of outcomes due to the nature of both teams, but I think Charleston has a significantly higher chance than the 20% probability implied by the oddsmakers at +400.
Carlucci: Samford over Kansas – Samford hasn’t had much of a strength of schedule to speak of, but its offensive approach fits into what the Kansas defense typically allows. The Bulldogs like to bomb 3-pointers, ranking top 100 in 3PA/FGA in the country, but they also shoot it at the 8th-best clip (39.3%). The Jayhawks yield an above-average number of 3PA per game and are outside the top 150 in 3P% defense. Kansas stars Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar were dinged up for the conference tourney, but they are apparently good to go for the big dance. But who really knows if they’re truly close to 100%?
Which #1 seed has the toughest draw and why?
Beimfohr: UConn – It’s truly insane what the committee did to the #1 overall seed. Auburn profiles more like a #2 or #3 seed. Iowa St. was closer to a #1 seed than the worst #2 seed. Illinois has as much upside as anyone, while San Diego State and BYU are dangerous mid-seeds. Heck, UConn might draw a Final Four team last year, FAU, in the 2nd Round. If UConn goes back-to-back, it will be an incredibly impressive feat.
Schiller: UConn – Auburn is slightly under-seeded for its resume, but the Tigers are well under-seeded compared to their analytical profile. They are 4th in KenPom and 5th in BartTorvik. This is a likely Sweet 16 game where UConn could be favored by just a basket or two. Not only that, but the the Huskies get the #5 KenPom and #4 BartTorvik team, Iowa State, on the opposite side of their bracket. BYU has been an analytical darling all season, while Illinois and Northwestern can score the ball from anywhere. This is a tough region, and it shows why the #1 overall seed has almost no meaning when you get down to it.
Case: UConn – Having to go through a consensus top-5 team in the country (Auburn) just to get past the Sweet 16 is a brutal draw for the overall #1 seed. Not only that, but we all know what Dusty May and Florida Atlantic are capable of doing with this roster. If the Huskies get through the Sweet 16, they will be rewarded with the best defensive team in the country, Iowa State, or an Illinois team that can outscore anybody. Maybe even a BYU team that might decide to go 17-of-30 from deep. UConn might make it look simple, but there isn’t going to be an easy game on this path…except Stetson. They might score 150 on them.
Carlucci: UConn – Just a brutal draw for a #1 overall seed. The committee botching Auburn does not help them, as the Tigers landed a #4 seed in the same region. Not much else to say that hasn’t already been mentioned. UConn is the best team in the country pre-tournament. And if they’re cutting down the nets in a few weeks, it will certainly be well deserved.
Who’s your favorite “contrarian” team to send to the Final Four (or championship) in a bracket contest?
Beimfohr: Colorado – Getting very hot take-y with this one, but I outlined the reasons why CU is undervalued earlier. This is a high-level talented team with just about everything you need in March. The Buffaloes have an elite lead guard, NBA talent, a big post presence, and veteran depth.
If they beat Boise, they’ll draw a talented Florida team who just lost center Micah Handlogten to a gruesome injury in the SEC Tournament and is shockingly thin with Riley Kugel forgetting how to play basketball this season. Marquette is a tough draw in the 2nd Round, but not unbeatable, especially if Tyler Kolek is a bit rusty. Kentucky seems to be everyone’s pick for the Elite 8, but you do eventually have to stop your opponent from scoring at least a few times to win in March. And Houston is excellent, but we saw what happened last season when they went cold on offense in the tournament (they lost to Miami).
Schiller: Auburn – I’m not sure how contrarian the Tigers will end up being as the #4 KenPom-rated team, but from what I’ve seen so far, all of the talking heads are writing UConn into the Final Four in pen.
I imagine UConn is likely the chalkiest team, but they are by no means a shoe-in. I have Auburn +2 on a neutral floor against UConn, and I think their 1st-ranked interior defense can cause the Huskies some problems. If you get the Auburn over UConn upset in the Sweet 16, that’s likely huge leverage on most of the field in these bracket contests, who just click the #1 overall seed into the Final Four. Not only that, but Auburn would be a favorite in its Elite 8 game as well, no matter who comes through.
Case: Kansas – I’m not just being a homer, so hear me out. The Midwest is by far the weakest region, and Purdue remains the most overrated team in the country (in my opinion). Zach Edey is good, but the Boilermakers don’t get enough out of the rest of the team. Matt Painter hasn’t really given us much of a reason to trust him in March, with more first-weekend exits than Sweet 16 appearances. Tennessee’s offense disappears for stretches almost nightly, and Rick Barnes in March? Ha, ok. One bad shooting night from Creighton and they’re toast. Gonzaga has a ton of talent but might lay down and die at the slightest inconvenience. The list goes on.
The Jayhawks’ biggest challenge might be against Samford, as the run-and-gun style could knock them out quickly. However, KU has the best coach in the country, Bill Self, who has made it to at least the Elite 8 on nine occasions during his tenure at Kansas. We know the depth is an issue, but this is still a talented team, with the Big 12’s leading scorer and rebounder, who both should be back to nearly full health.
They also have the experience of KJ Adams and Dajuan Harris, who have already won a championship. And the potential that we all know is there in Johnny Furphy, who has played himself into a potential NBA lottery pick. Nick Timberlake was one of the best shooters in the country for the last two seasons at Towson. Despite all of that, Kansas has a realistic chance of going home on Thursday, but if they can put it all together, the Jayhawks can make a deep run.
Carlucci: Auburn – Not only are the Tigers an undervalued #4 seed, but the committee put them in the same pod with the Huskies! Here’s the simplest way to be contrarian and break the chalk in any bracket contest – have Auburn defeat UConn in the Sweet 16. That would be an incredible game and a total contrast of styles and pace. The Tigers are about as inconsistent as they come, so that can either be a really bad thing…or a very good thing! The ceiling is high, but the floor is low. A wide range of outcomes here, but I love this idea, especially if you are in a contest with a ton of entries.
Final Four prediction?
Beimfohr: UConn, Arizona, Marquette, Tennessee
Schiller: Auburn, Arizona, Houston, Purdue
Case: UConn, Arizona, Duke, Tennessee
Carlucci: UConn, UNC, Houston, Tennessee
Championship game and winner prediction?
Beimfohr: Tennessee over UConn, 77-75
Schiller: Purdue over Auburn, 80-75
Case: Duke over UConn, 72-70
Carlucci: UConn over Houston, 70-68
As a fan, which game or storyline are you most excited to watch unfold?
Beimfohr: I really, really liked a bunch of the mid-major/lower-seeded teams prior to the bracket reveal, but they essentially all drew horrible matchups. McNeese, Morehead State, and Grand Canyon are really sneaky Cinderella-type profiles, but I don’t love the matchups. Meanwhile, some of the top-seeded teams that I don’t love (and have been looking to fade) are in matchups that they should dominate. I am looking forward to seeing which sides of those two coins will turn out to be true. That…and how the East region plays out.
Schiller: I’m liking the parallels to Virginia’s national title run for Purdue after they lost to a #16 seed last season. While that doesn’t mean anything in itself, I think the pure embarrassment of that outcome can light a fire under a team that you cannot replicate. It likely depends on if Braden Smith’s leg is fully healthy. But Purdue also has the biggest mismatch of anyone in the country in Zach Edey and more experienced guards in Lance Jones, Fletcher Loyer, and Smith. We’ve seen plenty of coaches maligned for their March failures win titles lately, such as Jay Wright, Tony Bennett, and Scott Drew. Is it Painter’s turn to join that club?
I also think a lot of people are expecting this to be a wild first couple of rounds due to parity, but my guess is this is one of the most boring 1st rounds in recent memory. The lack of strong teams coming from the auto-bids and the amount of bid-stealers has weakened the lower-seed pool to where I think there will be very few upsets. I hope I am wrong, however.
Case: Can Kansas figure it out? Will the committee be justified with the low seeding of the Mountain West teams? Can UConn repeat? Does Purdue lose to another #16 seed? Is it FINALLY the Zags’ year when nobody is talking about them? I’m too excited, and there are too many good storylines to pick just one.
Carlucci: I feel like most of the public already wrote Houston off after they were destroyed by Iowa State a few days ago. So, they aren’t allowed one bad game? I don’t see much buzz about them at all or many experts predicting them to have a Final Four run. This seems like some crazy recency bias for a team with one blip on the radar at a bizarre time. The Cougars are unbelievable defensively, haven’t lost a home game, and are 5-1 on a neutral court this season.
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