2024 NFL Player Props: 5 Season-Long Bets to Make Right Now
Using his experience as a former scout and staff member at Central Florida under Josh Heupel, Jordan Vanek discusses five of his favorite season-long props for the upcoming NFL season. Formerly of The 33rd Team and 4for4 Fantasy Football, Jordan will be bringing his football expertise to RotoGrinders this season, offering a weekly article for NFL Premium subscribers.
As the NFL season approaches, anticipation is growing among fans and bettors alike. Each year presents fresh opportunities to profit from player props, often ignored by casual bettors but offering significant value with the right analysis.
The 2024 season is no exception, with several players expected to exceed expectations due to changes in coaching, team dynamics, and personal development. By concentrating on crucial elements like offensive strategies and player roles, bettors can discover exploitable lines that yield returns.
And if you’re looking for some NFL Best Ball and season-long content, check out FantasyLabs NFL for rankings and projections provided by Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon of the Action Network.
Best 2024 NFL Prop Bets
Chris Olave Over 1,025.5 Receiving Yards (-110, DraftKings)
The Saints have a new offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak, who is known for targeting top receivers heavily. In 2021 with the Vikings, he fed Justin Jefferson 167 targets. With Olave as the clear top option and having little competition for targets, he is poised for a career high in targets. Plus, with 13 games in domes, Olave is set for a standout season in this upgraded scheme. He has been over this 1,025 mark in his first 2 seasons and is poised to have another year over it if he plays in at least 14 games.
Diontae Johnson Over 775.5 Receiving Yards (-112, FanDuel)
The Panthers traded for Johnson to provide Bryce Young with a reliable target. According to ESPN analytics, no WR has a better open rate over the last 3 years than Johnson. Head coach Dave Canales has praised Johnson, who is set to be a focal point in the offense. Given the Panthers’ weak pass rush, they are unlikely to play with many leads this season. This benefits Johnson, as Canales had a 72.5% dropback rate with the Buccaneers when trailing by 7 points. This line is at the 800-yard mark on other books.
Jaylen Waddle Over 1,000.5 Receiving Yards (-110, DraftKings)
Despite injuries limiting his snaps, Waddle has consistently surpassed 1,000 receiving yards each season. According to Sports Info Solutions, Waddle boasted a 30.5% target per route run rate with Tua Tagovailoa, ranking 9th among all duos. Given this strong connection, I’d confidently expect Waddle to exceed 1,100 yards this season.
DK Metcalf Over 950.5 Yards Receiving (-112, FanDuel)
Metcalf has hit this over in 4 straight seasons, and I believe this upcoming season will be the best setup for him to have even more. The Seahawks are getting Ryan Grubb as their new offensive coordinator, and his passing game concepts are extremely creative. Grubb will look to isolate Metcalf and get him in situations that will have him in man-coverage situations similar to the way Rome Odunze was utilized at Washington. This line should be in the 1,000 range and is too low at 950.
Chris Godwin Over 850.5 Yards Receiving (-110, DraftKings)
With Liam Coen, a Sean McVay disciple, as the new offensive coordinator in Tampa, Chris Godwin is set to exceed 850 receiving yards this season. Godwin has surpassed this mark in 4 of the last 5 seasons, with the only season he didn’t reach it being due to injury. Last season, he had a strong connection with Baker Mayfield, achieving a 27% target per route run rate and 2.40 yards per route run. Returning to a full-time slot role this season, Godwin is poised for even more targets and greater success.
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