2024 Open Championship Betting Trends: Four Golf Picks to Win at Royal Troon
It’s sad that the year’s final major is already upon us, but we are a glass-half-full bunch here at RotoGrinders. The way I see it, we have one more opportunity to take advantage of all the promos in the betting space and all of the big contests in DFS. This year’s Open Championship will be held at Royal Troon, which is a Par 71 that measures 7,385 yards. The last time the Old Course at Royal Troon held The Open was in 2016 when Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson ran away from the field and put on an epic battle over the weekend.
While I’m a firm believer that trends are made to be broken, this is one of my favorite articles to put together for each of the four majors. It’s always fun to sift through the betting trends and see which golfers check all of the boxes. We haven’t correctly picked the winner at all of the majors, but we have identified the potential winner quite a few times over the years. My favorite part is going through each trend and eliminating some of the field along the way.
2024 Open Championship Golf Betting Trends
- Each of the last 10 winners were inside the top 40 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR)
- 17 of the last 23 winners had a previous top 10 at The Open
- Winners of The Open and winners at Royal Troon have had a win earlier in the season
- Each of the last 10 winners had a top 2 at a previous major
- 9 of the last 10 winners had a top 10 in 1 of their previous 3 starts
- 8 of the last 10 winners had a top 20 in 1 of their previous 2 majors
- Each of the last 5 winners of The Open were in the top 5 in scrambling that week
Trend #1: Each of the last 10 winners were inside the top 40 in the OWGR
While there have certainly been some surprise winners and contenders at The Open Championship over the years, we rarely see a true dark horse become the Champion Golfer of the Year. Each of the last 10 winners of The Open were ranked inside the top 40 in the OWGR. This has become one of the trickier trends over the last couple of years, as golfers on LIV are unable to earn OWGR points in anything other than majors. For that reason, we’ll take the top 40 in the OWGR as well as the next two best LIV golfers in the field.
Top 40 in OWGR
Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy
Xander Schauffele
Ludvig Aberg
Wyndham Clark
Collin Morikawa
Viktor Hovland
Patrick Cantlay
Bryson DeChambeau
Jon Rahm
Sahith Theegala
Tommy Fleetwood
Brian Harman
Hideki Matsuyama
Max Homa
Robert MacIntyre
Tom Kim
Tony Finau
Keegan Bradley
Russell Henley
Matt Fitzpatrick
Matthieu Pavon
Tyrrell Hatton
Sungjae Im
Cameron Young
Akshay Bhatia
Sepp Straka
Sam Burns
Justin Thomas
Jason Day
Min Woo Lee
Byeong Hun An
Shane Lowry
Denny McCarthy
Adam Scott
Jordan Spieth
Chris Kirk
Corey Conners
Nick Taylor
Davis Thompson
Next best LIV golfers (according to DataGolf)
Joaquin Niemann
Louis Oosthuizen
Dean Burmester
We have cut the potential winner down to 43 golfers. We have a long way to go, but at least it’s a start. It’s a bit surprising to see Louis Oosthuizen so high up in the DataGolf rankings. I’m certainly not upset, as he’s always been one of my favorite golfers. It’s good seeing him back in the field at a major.
Trend #2: 17 of the last 23 winners had a previous top 10 at The Open
This is arguably the most logical Open Championship betting trend for the week. Links golf is a different style of test than most of the PGA TOUR regulars are used to, and the majors require a certain level of mental fortitude. It makes complete sense that 17 of the last 23 winners had a previous top 10 at The Open. Of the 43 golfers remaining, here are the ones without a top 10 at The Open:
Ludvig Aberg
Sahith Theegala
Keegan Bradley
Russell Henley
Matt Fitzpatrick
Matthieu Pavon
Sungjae Im
Akshay Bhatia
Sam Burns
Justin Thomas
Min Woo Lee
Byeong Hun An
Denny McCarthy
Chris Kirk
Corey Conners
Nick Taylor
Davis Thompson
Dean Burmester
Joaquin Niemann
The second trend was a good one for our purposes, as 19 golfers in our remaining pool didn’t have a previous top 10 at The Open. Two trends in and we are already down to 24 potential winners for this year’s Claret Jug.
Trend #3: Winners of The Open and winners at Royal Troon have had a win earlier in the season
Every past winner of The Open Championship at Royal Troon had a win earlier that season. Additionally, 8 of the last 10 winners of The Open Championship had a win earlier that season. Essentially, showing winning upside has been critical for success at this course and at this event. Of the remaining golfers, here are the ones with a win on their résumé this year:
Bryson DeChambeau
Dean Burmester
Hideki Matsuyama
Joaquin Niemann
Robert MacIntyre
Rory McIlroy
Scottie Scheffler
Tyrrell Hatton
Shane Lowry (team event, but we’ll give it to him)
This is an interesting list, as there are some names you might not expect. Even more surprising is the fact that we have to cross off the likes of Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Tommy Fleetwood, and Patrick Cantlay. Honestly, ruling out Fleetwood should be good for my wallet.
Trend #4: Each of the last 10 winners had a top 2 at a previous major
We typically see experience win out on links courses and at The Open Championship. It’s not a major surprise that each of the last 10 winners had a top 2 finish at a previous major before winning The Open. Here are the best finishes at a major for our final 11:
Bryson DeChambeau – win
Dean Burmester – T11
Robert MacIntyre – T6
Joaquin Niemann – T16
Rory McIlroy – win
Scottie Scheffler – win
Hideki Matsuyama – win
Shane Lowry – win
Tyrrell Hatton – T5
Wyndham Clark – win
Xander Schauffele – win
I was hoping to whittle down the pool a little more than we did, but we can officially say sayonara to Dean Burmester and Joaquin Niemann.
Trend #5: 9 of the last 10 winners had a top 10 in 1 of their previous 3 starts
Recent form is important at every major championship. For the record, 9 of the last 10 winners of The Open Championship had a top 10 finish in 1 of their previous 3 starts. Let’s see what the final 9 golfers have been up to recently:
Bryson DeChambeau – T9, T6, win
Robert MacIntyre – win, MC, T15
Rory McIlroy – T4, 2, T15
Scottie Scheffler – win, T41, win
Hideki Matsuyama – 75, T22, T6
Shane Lowry – T12, T19, T49
Tyrrell Hatton – T3, win, T26
Wyndham Clark – T10, T8, T56
Xander Schauffele – 15, T12, T7
This is proving to be more difficult than expected. The only cut we could make with this trend was Shane Lowry.
Trend #6: 8 of the last 10 winners had a top 20 in 1 of their previous 2 majors
We are starting to get in the weeds a bit with these trends, but we have to narrow down our list a little more. Success at a recent major has been important, as 8 of the last 10 winners of The Open Championship had a top 20 in 1 of their previous 2 major starts. Here’s how the final 8 have performed in their last 2 majors:
Bryson DeChambeau – win, 2nd
Robert MacIntyre – MC, T8
Rory McIlroy – 2nd, T12
Scottie Scheffler – T41, T8
Hideki Matsuyama – T6, T35
Tyrrell Hatton – T26, T63
Wyndham Clark – T56, MC
Xander Schauffele – T7, win
We are officially down to 6 golfers, as Tyrrell Hatton and Wyndham Clark have hit the chopping block.
Trend #7: Each of the last 5 winners of The Open were in the top 5 in scrambling that week
I typically wouldn’t include something like this in the trends since we have to make an arbitrary cut-off point, but I am officially out of trends. Like the high school basketball team, not everyone can make the cut. For our purposes, let’s set the cut-off point at the top 20 in scrambling on the PGA TOUR and the top 8 in scrambling on LIV. Here are the scrambling ranks this year for the final 6 golfers:
Bryson DeChambeau – 11th (LIV)
Robert MacIntyre – 24th
Rory McIlroy – 12th
Scottie Scheffler – 4th
Hideki Matsuyama – 2nd
Xander Schauffele – 1st
2024 Open Championship Betting Trends Finalists
Scottie Scheffler +500 (BetMGM)
Rory McIlroy +1100 (DraftKings)
Xander Schauffele +1800 (DraftKings)
Hideki Matsuyama +2800 (bet365)
I wouldn’t blame anyone for betting Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy this week. I do have slight concerns with both golfers though. When it comes to Scheffler, we are getting such short odds (+500) that it becomes hard to build out a betting card. You essentially have to roll Scheffler and maybe one other outright. Additionally, he talked about his struggles at Pinehurst given the unknowns of where his ball would end up. You get a lot of that on links courses, and Royal Troon has several blind tee shots. As for McIlroy, how many more heartbreaks can one man endure? Cam Smith ripped his heart out at The Open a few years ago, and then he ripped his own heart out at the last two U.S. Opens. Believe it or not, it has been over 10 years since McIlroy’s last major win.
Personally, I see more value in betting Xander Schauffele and/or Hideki Matsuyama. Schauffele doesn’t have a single weakness in his game, he got the monkey off his back earlier this year by winning his first major, and he rates out slightly better than both Scheffler and McIlroy in my model. He has an excellent track record on both links courses and at The Open Championship. He’s also finished T8 or better in 7 of his last 10 starts. Matsuyama missed the cut last week at the Scottish Open, but he gained 4.7 strokes tee to green. He had an uncharacteristically bad couple of days on the greens (-4.8 strokes putting). He’s won a major before, he’s an elite scrambler, and he has 3 top 15 finishes at The Open in his career.
Good luck this week, and enjoy the final major of the year!
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