2025 NCAA Tournament Betting Preview: Tips & Predictions From Our Experts
March is here! The stakes are high and the drama is about to unfold. RotoGrinders and ScoresAndOdds have you covered every step of the way.
The SAO experts already have plenty of premium picks for the opening round. Let’s bring in our guys Erik Beimfohr, Jon Schiller, and Jourdan Case to take a deeper dive into the field of 68!
What surprised you the most about the tournament seeding?
Beimfohr: Although not technically “seeding,” I would be remiss if I did not mention how hilarious it is that North Carolina got into the field over West Virginia and Indiana. But in terms of seeding, Gonzaga sticking on the 8 line is surprising. The resume metrics are what get you in the field, and that’s where the Zags belong around that spot.
However, the predictive metrics are supposed to play into seeding, and the Zags are top 10 in the country in predictions like KenPom (9th) and BartTorvik (11th). This is not only a challenging draw for Georgia in the first round, but also for a Houston team that is grappling with a J’Wan Roberts ankle injury.
Schiller: I was surprised (although I probably shouldn’t be) by the complete lack of consideration of the conference tournaments. Most people were expecting Michigan to be a 4, and I even heard thoughts of a 3, after their Big Ten tournament run, but they got a 5. Purdue, after a rough end to the season and losing to Michigan in their one game, still got a 4.
In addition, the 8 seeds this year are incredibly strong. Louisville, Gonzaga, and UConn all have robust analytical profiles across all models, while the 5 seeds in Michigan, Oregon, Clemson, and Memphis all have extremely weak analytical profiles. The 1 seeds have a difficult road if those strong 8s can break through.
Case: It’s incredibly minor, and doesn’t actually matter, but Auburn getting the top overall seed over Duke surprised me. Auburn lost 3 of their last 4 games and fell all the way down to 4th in KenPom, while Duke, without Cooper Flagg, won their conference tournament, albeit in a much weaker conference, and hasn’t lost in over a month.
An actual surprise is Michigan landing on the 5 line. I thought they had a chance at a 3 seed, with the 4 line being the floor after winning the Big Ten tournament, but the committee clearly doesn’t put much stock into the conference tourney for seeding.
Which First Four team has the best odds at making a Cinderella run?
Beimfohr: Oof, this is a tough group from an upside perspective, but I will say Texas. The biggest factor there is in the draw, as I think Illinois is incredibly vulnerable, and Kentucky is pretty similar with the injuries to Lamont Butler and Jaxson Robinson. Houston and Tennessee are obviously tough, but they can go through some offensive droughts.
Texas has been battle-tested in the SEC, and they have one of the best shot-makers in the country in star freshman Tre Johnson alongside a talented roster that could theoretically overcome an uninspiring coach in Rodney Terry.
Schiller: People are angry about the UNC inclusion, but to me, they have the best chance of making a run. They have great guard play with the ever-so-experienced RJ Davis alongside Elliot Cadeau, Seth Trimble, Drake Powell, and Ian Jackson, and their interior guys found something down the stretch—this is a hot team.
They have won 8 of their 10 games (albeit in a down ACC), with their only 2 losses coming to Duke, 2 games they were in in the second half and maybe should have won (the last game especially after the lane violation). They have the best efficiency metrics of any of the first four teams at 33rd in KenPom, would likely be a 1-2 point dog vs. Ole Miss in the second round, and then would feasibly get a winnable game against Iowa State without Keshon Gilbert in the 3rd round.
Case: I don’t think this is a great group of teams this year, but I like San Diego State, assuming they get Magoon Gwath back. Brian Dutcher has a history of success in the tournament, and this team can play defense with the best. Nick Boyd can get hot enough to carry a team that plays in the mud like SDSU, and Gwath is an elite rim protector.
They aren’t a great rebounding team, but they should be able to force enough turnovers to make up for the deficiencies on the glass. Ole Miss isn’t inspiring, and Iowa State is without their best player. I like the path on the Xavier/Texas side a bit better, but Xavier creates no second chances, and I don’t trust Rodney Terry to do anything at all, so SDSU it is!
What is your favorite Round 1 pick against the spread?
Beimfohr: Yale + 7.5 vs. Texas A&M – A&M is a very specific team in terms of what you need to be able to do to beat/compete with them. You better take care of the basketball and compete on the boards because they are the best offensive rebounding team in the country and want to turn you over and win the extras to help their super-inefficient offense. They need to do that because they absolutely cannot shoot from the outside.
Yale, who upset Auburn in the first round last year and brought back multiple top players from that team, checks basically all of those boxes. Granted, that was against weaker competition, but they do not turn the ball over (top 20 in turnover rate), they are a good defensive rebounding team (22nd), and they force their opponents to take a TON of 3-pointers. Combine that with an outstanding two-way senior guard in Bez Mbeng, an offensive stud on the wing in John Poulakidas, and one of the most productive and efficient bigs in the country in Nick Townsend, and Yale has all the pieces to compete.
Schiller: Bryant vs. Michigan State – I hate to do this against my team, but when the brackets were coming out, I just wanted to not see Bryant in MSU’s 15 slot. Bryant is a very strong team, loaded with former 5-star talent in Earl Timberlake and a high-major player in Rafael Pinzon. They have immense size, ranking 6th in effective height in the nation.
Their shortest starter is 6 feet and 6 inches tall, and they also play at a high tempo, so they aren’t going to be fazed by MSU trying to run fast breaks on them. This is a very, very tricky matchup for the Spartans.
Case: Wisconsin -16.5 – Montana isn’t an incredibly threatening underdog. They don’t cause much havoc, only forcing a turnover on 15.5% of possessions, and they are one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country. While they are an efficient 3-point shooting team, they only take 36.8% of their shot attempts from 3, with the bulk of their shot attempts (42.7%) coming at the rim. While Wisconsin does allow a high 58% FG% at the rim, they allow the 11th-fewest attempts at just 29.1% of opponent shots.
Defensively, I don’t think Montana stands much of a chance at all. They sit 250th in KenPom defense and have been dominated by every high-level offense they have faced, allowing 79 points on just 65 possessions to Oregon and 92 and 95 points to Tennessee and Utah State, respectively. This one has all the makings of an ugly blowout, assuming Wisconsin doesn’t go ice cold from deep.
What is your favorite Round 1 game total pick?
Beimfohr: High Point/Purdue Over 153.5 – This is my favorite total of the opening round here, as I really think both offenses have monster advantages over each opposing defense. The Purdue defense has been a sieve for essentially the entire season, as they’re unable to stay in front of athletic perimeter players, and they do not have rim protection when they get there. High Point brings a super-deep team loaded with Power 5 talent, and they have a top-25 offense in the country, but the 227th-ranked defense. Purdue should be able to take advantage of that defense, with the Braden Smith + Trey Kaufman-Renn pairing in the pick-and-roll leading the 7th-ranked offense.
Schiller: Alabama/RMU Over 165.5 – I have been hammering ‘Bama Overs all season with great success, and I will again in this spot against a decent offensive RMU team. The Tide do not slow down, ever—it’s run, run, run for them, and that will obviously not stop against a team in RMU, who is outclassed talent-wise. Alabama will go over 100, so we have to determine if RMU can get 66, and I think they can.
Alvaro Folgueiras, Josh Omojafo, and DJ Smith all shoot the 3 at 38% or above, and Kam Woods is a relentless attacker of the ball. This is a solid offensive RMU team even though the metrics might not indicate it, and I think that they can score enough to get this one over. Generally, in blowouts, we want unders, but Alabama isn’t going to stop pushing the pace, even when it’s up 30.
Case: Yale/Texas A&M Under 141 – As Eric laid out, this isn’t a great matchup for A&M. If they aren’t able to dominate on the glass and wreak havoc defensively, I don’t think they can create a ton of offense against the Yale defensive scheme. Both teams are pretty content playing half-court basketball, with both sitting around the national median or slightly below it in offensive transition rate.
These teams force a TON of 3-point attempts defensively and really prevent action at the rim. Texas A&M can’t shoot, and Yale is capable, but they only take 32% of their shots from deep. I’ll gladly take an under in any game that Texas A&M has to play half-court basketball and can’t dominate with their offensive rebounding and turnover creation.
Do you have a favorite statistic to weigh in handicapping tournament matchups/predictions?
Beimfohr: This is maybe cheating a little bit, but I am a huge proponent of the unique statistical nuances within each individual matchup. Particularly in college basketball, each team is extremely unique in their schematics and talent, and thus in their statistical profile. For example, Texas A&M always jumps off the screen in terms of what you need in an opponent in order to either back them or fade them. They win what we call “the extras,” meaning offensive rebounding and turnovers, but they HAVE to do so because they are poor on offense due to being a horrible outside shooting team.
They are the best offensive rebounding team in the country, and they turn opponents over at a high clip, but they are 317th in 3-point percentage, 293rd in 2-point percentage, and even 274th in free-throw percentage on offense. If you can limit their dominance in the extras and force them into jump shots, you can be successful. If not, you’re in trouble. Those kinds of extremes don’t exist in every single matchup, but those are the types of statistical nuances I hone in on the most during the tournament.
Schiller: I’ll stick to my regular season plan in attempting to exploit strengths and weaknesses of the matchup. If a team excels in 3-point shooting but struggles with 2-point shooting, and their opponent consistently blocks 2-pointers, sags on 3-pointers, or is in a zone, I will almost always choose the 3-point shooting team. I also take a lot of stock in DBPR at EvanMiya.com, a rating system for how good a player’s defensive performance is.
If Team A has poor defensive guards and Team B has high-usage, solid-efficiency guards, I will like Team B offensively. All factors need to be considered as well, and if there are conflicting statistical advantages, I will usually pass on that game and focus on games where I can find a team with multiple statistical advantages.
Case: Shot volume, which is essentially a product of turnover rate and offensive rebounding. Teams that don’t turn the ball over and grab a high rate of offensive boards get more shots than the other team. Similarly, teams that force a lot of turnovers and don’t get beat on the offensive glass take away shot opportunities from their opponent. High shot volume can make up for inefficient shooting and extend dominance or spark a Cinderella run.
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What long shot has the best odds to win the title?
Beimfohr: Clemson (100-1 on FanDuel, 19-1 to win the region) – Clemson is a tick under-seeded as a 5 (they’re one spot ahead of Purdue in KenPom, who is the 4 seed in their region), and they check a lot of boxes for a sneaky tournament run. They shocked many just last season by making it all the way to the Elite Eight when they were a popular Round 1 upset pick, and this team is quite a bit better in my opinion. They’re incredibly experienced, with an elite frontcourt duo that can control the paint against just about anyone.
They also have a veteran and underrated backcourt with a strong coach in Brad Brownell. They are top 25 in both offense and defense in KenPom, and they have already shown truly elite upside, as one of only three teams to beat Duke this season. In that game, they largely bullied the Blue Devils, which shows how physical and tough this team can be. I love their draw against Purdue or High Point in the 2nd round, and while Houston and Tennessee are very tough, they can go toe-to-toe with physical teams like those two and pull off the upset.
Schiller: Gonzaga is the pick, but Case already has them, so I’ll go with another 8 seed in Louisville (80-1). We’ve seen Auburn punt off games left and right over the last 2 weeks, so at this point I have to believe they are the weakest 1 seed. If Louisville can somehow get past that, they have the bottom half of their quarter in poor 3-point shooting: Michigan State, Iowa State without Keshon Gilbert, and Marquette, I guess? I could reasonably see Louisville in the Final Four from the South, as they have experienced guard play in Chucky Hepburn, Terrence Edwards, and J’Vonne Hadley and a competent interior. They should also get Reyne Smith back, and we saw what a guy like Jack Gohlke can do if a pure 3-point shooter lights fire.
Case: Gonzaga (+850 to win region, 50-1 to win it all) – It might be cheating as they’re a top 10 team in KenPom, but they missed Duke, Florida, and Auburn in their region. While Houston and Tennessee are both great basketball teams, they also go on long scoring droughts (Houston is shooting 49% on 2-point shots, and Tennessee has just one player shooting more than 32% from 3-point range) and rely on their havoc creation to rattle teams, which shouldn’t bother the incredibly experienced Zags team. The Zags rebound well, protect the basketball, and are dominant in transition on both ends of the floor, which adds fuel to the fire and extends mini runs into killshots.
Which #12 seed or higher has the best chance for an opening-round upset?
Beimfohr: High Point +8.5 vs. Purdue – Since I highlighted Yale above as my best bet, I’ll pick another upset candidate here. Hopefully you got the opening number I posted on ScoresAndOdds at +9.5, but I still like Panthers at +8.5 against Purdue. A trend you’ll see from me in my 1st-round bets is “teams I am looking to fade,” and Purdue is near the top of that list. Purdue is extremely vulnerable, really struggling down the stretch to the tune of a 3-6 close to Big Ten play, including the conference tournament.
They are also horrific away from home, sitting 3rd-worst in the nation in Haslametrics’ Away From Home metric. They cannot get stops on the defensive end with guards who struggle to stay in front of drivers paired with no rim protection. On offense, they’re just a two-man show (it’s a good two-man show, to be fair), but High Point is deep with big-time talent that can just wear down Purdue and go toe-to-toe with the Boilermakers. It’s just too many points.
Schiller: I will cheat here and say Colorado State, as they are actually favored in this game. The line is -3.5 for CSU right now, so by odds they are the answer. They have a better analytics profile and are hitting 3-point shots from everywhere. They also have Nique Clifford, who is one of the best players in the country that casuals have never heard of.
Case: UC San Diego – It wouldn’t be a massive upset as they are only 2.5-point underdogs, but the matchup with Michigan is incredibly enticing. While they don’t have the size to match up with the Wolverines, that is about the only thing working against them here. Michigan has serious turnover issues. They have a -3.8% turnover margin on the season, and that will be exacerbated by the UCSD defense that is second in the country in turnover rate at 23.2% and 4th in steal rate at 14.2%.
Michigan will own the glass, but UCSD may own the shot volume on turnover differential alone. Michigan is also very reliant on transition opportunities on offense, which they won’t get in this one, as UCSD prevents transition at a top-45 rate and defends it well, sitting 25th nationally and allowing just 1.03 PPP.
Which #1 seed has the toughest draw and why?
Beimfohr: Oddly enough, it’s everyone’s new favorite title favorite, Florida. First, they have to travel all the way out west. I’m extremely high on St. John’s, the 2 seed in the west, with elite defense and toughness, elite coaching with Rick Pitino, and high-end talent on the roster. Texas Tech as the 3 seed on that side of the bracket is brutal as well.
They’re up to 7th in KenPom, and they have everything you want in a roster to make a title run with elite shooting, great depth, a superstar in JT Toppin, and excellent coaching. They get Maryland, a sneaky good 4 seed that would be dangerous in the Sweet 16 with one of the best starting lineups in the entire sport. And to top it off, you have programs or coaches like UConn, Kansas, and Arkansas with Calipari acting as “Cinderellas.” It’s a brutal region.
Schiller: Florida could have been the overall #1 but ended up getting slotted in what should be the toughest region. Both St. John’s and Texas Tech would be very difficult matchups for the Gators in the Elite Eight, as they are 7th and 11th in KenPom, respectively, and are both playing very well. Texas Tech is expected to have both Darrion Williams and Chance McMillian back, so there’s no concern there with injuries.
Florida could get the back-to-back national title holders in UConn in the 2nd round. Despite their poor efficiency metrics, you cannot say that is a comfortable matchup. Their only potential “easy” game outside of the Round of 64 is the Sweet 16 matchup against CSU/Memphis/Maryland/GCU, but Maryland is 12th in KenPom and hasn’t lost a game by more than 6 points all season. Unless chaos ensues, the Gators face a challenging journey.
Case: It probably won’t matter, but I think it’s Duke. Alabama is elite offensively and is much better defensively than last year’s Final Four team. Wisconsin can shoot themselves into any game. Arizona has two national champions who have similar profiles on BartTorvik.
Saint Mary’s is a top 10 defense and a truly elite rebounding team. VCU was my favorite Final Four sleeper until they got stuck in this region, as they are good at everything and have high-major talent on the wings and elite rim protection inside. It’s an absolutely brutal region, but Duke might go down as the best college basketball team of all time if Cooper Flagg comes back healthy.
Who’s your favorite “contrarian” team to send to the Final Four (or championship) in a bracket contest?
Beimfohr: Clemson – I am a huge Houston fan, and the draw shook out wonderfully for the 2 seed Tennessee, but Clemson has a real shot at a deep run in back-to-back years here. Assuming they get by a talented McNeese team, Purdue is incredibly vulnerable (and Clemson would be an auto bet against them for me if they were to matchup). Clemson has the toughness to go to battle with Houston, and that J’Wan Roberts injury does keep the door open for an upset.
Then, you likely have Tennessee from the bottom of the bracket thanks to teams like Illinois and Kentucky having some serious flaws (and in UK’s case, injuries). As good as Tennessee is, we know the offense can be hit or miss in the tournament. Clemson has already shown high-end upside in knocking off Duke; they’re tough as nails and extremely experienced, led by 4 seniors, including 6th-year point guard Chase Hunter.
Schiller: Texas Tech – They are 7th in KenPom, 7th in BartTorvik, and 10th in EvanMiya, yet no one is taking them because they have Saint John’s and Florida in their region. They are an elite offensive team under a defensive specialist coach, Grant McCasland, and have a roster that would make any team jealous. They can play small if they have to with JT Toppin at the 5 (5th in the KenPom Player of the Year race with a 120 offensive rating and a 33% shot rate), or if they need to match up bigger, Fede Federiko is a competent center who can provide rim protection.
Both Darrion Williams and Chance McMillian (due to spontaneously combusting from behind the arc at any moment) should be back for the tournament, and they have a point guard in Elijah Hawkins who doesn’t turn it over. They have Christian Anderson, a lightning-in-a-bottle 40% 3-point shooter off the bench if they need a jolt. This team has everything, and the analytics to back it up, but they aren’t getting selected because they are in the Florida region.
Case: Iowa State – Sure, they will be without Keshon Gilbert, but that just means more Curtis Jones, who isn’t the defender that Gilbert is but is lightning in a bottle on offense. They should also have Tamin Lipsey back. The matchup with Lipscomb can actually be a bit scary as they shoot the 3 at a high level and don’t turn the ball over, but ISU should still have their way with them. While I chose SDSU as my favorite out of the First Four, I don’t think SDSU will be able to score enough to give the Cyclones real problems.
ISU can turn Michigan State into a half-court offense and force them to make jump shots, which they can’t do. Auburn, while the number one overall seed, has sputtered of late, which hasn’t generally boded well for long-term success in the tournament, and the first iteration of this game was tied with one minute to go. This team spent several weeks ranked as high as 4th in KenPom, and I believe TJ Otzelberger can make it happen even without Keshon Gilbert.
Final Four prediction?
Beimfohr: Auburn, Texas Tech, Duke, Tennessee
Schiller: Michigan State, Florida, Duke, Houston
Case: Duke, Florida, Houston, Iowa State
Championship game and winner prediction?
Beimfohr: Duke over Auburn – Assuming Cooper Flagg’s ankle is fine, I think Duke’s conference tournament title run will actually do wonders for the Blue Devils in this tournament. The rest of the team received valuable experience in elevated roles without Flagg against good competition, and I think they’ve officially cemented themselves as the best team in the country from start to finish.
Auburn has seemingly become an afterthought despite being the No. 1 overall seed, and I think their losses down the stretch motivate this team to a run to the title game, where they ultimately come up short in a rematch with the Blue Devils.
Schiller: Duke over Florida – Florida gets revenge on MSU for 2000, but Cooper Flagg cements his legacy in college basketball lore with a 25-12 and 5-block performance in a very close, high-scoring title game. Duke has been much maligned this season for playing in the ACC and being a “one-man show,” but we have two data points that argue the opposite—Duke’s 50-point obliteration of Illinois in late February and their relatively easy conference title without Flagg.
Analytically, Duke is the best team in the country; they have the best player and could potentially be under-owned in brackets because Florida is America’s darling.
Case: I’ll go with Florida over Duke in an instant classic. Walter Clayton Jr. is about to go on a magical run, and Todd Golden, possibly the best coach in the country, has an absolutely stacked roster at his disposal. UF is top 10 on both ends of the floor, a top-10 offensive rebounding unit, and shoots 35% from 3. Also, once again, Walter Clayton Jr. is going on a magical run; I just want to make that clear.
As a fan, which game or storyline are you most excited to watch unfold?
Beimfohr: I think this is the best overall tournament field we have had, at least in recent memory, but possibly ever. Nearly all of the best teams from the mid- to low-major conferences got in by winning their conference tournament, so the quality of the lower-seeded teams is at a truly elite level. Gonzaga is top 10 in KenPom as an 8 seed; UC San Diego is 36th as a 12; Colorado State is a 12 seed and favored over Memphis, etc.
That’s before we get to the fact that traditional powers in UConn, Kansas, Creighton, and even a John Calipari team are all 7 seeds or worse. So as good as the top seeds are in this tournament, the path for just about every team is going to be extremely tough, and I’m excited to see the inevitable upsets that come from this.
Schiller: Two things: first, do the best group of 1 seeds we have ever seen survive the analytical anomaly 8 seeds this year? Second—this feels like one of the most loaded groups of 12-to-14 seeds we have ever had. Almost all the auto-qualifiers were a top-2 team in their conference, which generally never happens. A lot of times, we have poor teams stealing bids, but almost ALL of the best teams in their conference won the AQ. This could potentially cause some chaos in the early rounds, but I expect the top seeds to dominate this year as they are just significantly better than the other group of top teams from years past.
Case: This is the most loaded it’s been at the top of college basketball, possibly ever. There are four teams with a KenPom net rating of 35 or higher. In the last 20 years, there have been a total of four other teams that had a net rating of 35. That isn’t even including Tennessee, the 5th-highest-rated team this year, which would be the highest-rated team in 6 of the last 20 seasons. The party is always fun, but I’m really looking forward to watching how the Final Four pans out and if this elite talent all wins out.
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