2026 Masters Betting Trends: Four Picks to Win at Augusta This Year
For golf fans, this is the best week of the year. I’ve had a lot of fun compiling trends and writing this article for every Masters over the last several years. It has actually helped us identify each of the last three winners, which has been the icing on the cake. Let’s hope it can point us in the right direction again in 2026.
For a full course preview of Augusta National Golf Club, check out my PGA First Look. It has everything you need to know for this year’s Masters.
Trends are made to be broken and are often misused. When analyzing trends, causation does not always mean correlation. For instance, you’ll hear trends like “the Lakers are 20-6 against the spread on Tuesdays in December.” That’s not a trend – that’s a coincidence. You have to use common sense with a lot of trends.
I like to go through each trend and eliminate golfers along the way. I have carefully selected 8 trends to help us spot a winner for the 2026 Masters at Augusta National.
2026 Masters Betting Trends
- No debutant has won the Masters since 1979
- 11 of the last 12 winners had a finish of T22 or better at a previous Masters
- 27 of the last 28 winners made the cut at the previous Masters
- The last 12 winners were in the top 25 in OWGR
- 9 of the last 10 winners had a top 10 in one of their last three starts
- 11 of last 13 winners gained at least 1.65 strokes T2G per round in the previous 3 months
- There hasn’t been a repeat winner here since Tiger Woods in 2001 and 2002
- 9 of the last 14 winners had a win in the previous 6 months
Trend #1: No debutant has won the Masters since 1979
We’ve seen a few contend over the years, but it’s been 47 years since we’ve seen a debutant win the Masters. I’m not expecting a first-timer to don the green jacket in 2026. As we always do, let’s start crossing names off on our list of potential winners.
We bid adieu to the following golfers:
Chris Gotterup
Ben Griffin
Jacob Bridgeman
Ryan Gerard
Harry Hall
Sam Stevens
Hao-Tong Li
Casey Jarvis
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
John Keefer
Marco Penge
Michael Brennan
Kristoffer Reitan
Andrew Novak
Sami Valimaki
Tom McKibbin
Mason Howell
Ethan Fang
Naoyuki Kataoka
Jackson Herrington
Brandon Holtz
Fifa Laopakdee
Mateo Pulcini
Trend #2: 11 of the last 12 winners had a finish of T22 or better at a previous Masters
Course history is more predictive at Augusta National Golf Club than at any other course in professional golf. It stands to reason that the winner would have some success at this course before winning.
The following golfers will now be escorted down Magnolia Lane — in the wrong direction:
Aaron Rai
Michael Kim
Ryan Fox
Maverick McNealy
Rasmus Hojgaard
Max Greyserman
Brian Campbell
J.J. Spaun
Akshay Bhatia
Sam Burns
Wyndham Clark
Nico Echavarria
Nick Taylor
Aldrich Potgieter
Alex Noren
Carlos Ortiz
Trend #3: 27 of the last 28 winners made the cut at the previous Masters
As noted above, course history is imperative at Augusta National Golf Club. It’s telling that 27 of the last 28 winners made the cut at their previous Masters.
The patrons applaud politely as the following golfers exit the premises:
Sergio Garcia
Cameron Smith
Russell Henley
Keegan Bradley
Robert MacIntyre
Brooks Koepka
Sepp Straka
Cameron Young
Dustin Johnson
Adam Scott
Mike Weir
Fred Couples
Trend #4: The last 12 winners were in the top 25 in OWGR
Random winners rarely happen at the Masters. Each of the last 12 winners was in the top 25 in the OWGR (Official World Golf Ranking) the week leading into the event.
The following golfers can go touch some grass and smell some azaleas:
Sungjae Im
Corey Conners
Jason Day
Zach Johnson
Max Homa
Jordan Spieth
Tyrrell Hatton
Bubba Watson
Si Woo Kim
Kurt Kitayama
Vijay Singh
Davis Riley
Patrick Cantlay
Charl Schwartzel
Brian Harman
Shane Lowry
Danny Willett
Jose Maria Olazabal
(Note: Jon Rahm is currently outside the top 25 in the OWGR, but I’m keeping him in since he’s a top 5 player in the world.)
Trend #5: 9 of the last 10 winners had a top 10 in one of their last three starts
Augusta National Golf Club is going to expose any weakness in a golfer’s game. This isn’t a course where you can show up and just find your game. A recent top 10 has been important for finding a winner.
Don’t worry guys, you still have the Par 3 Contest to look forward to. This trend knocks out some extremely talented golfers:
Scottie Scheffler
Hideki Matsuyama
Viktor Hovland
Justin Rose
Harris English
Trend #6: 11 of last 13 winners gained at least 1.67 strokes T2G per round in the previous 3 months
To succeed at Augusta National Golf Club, you have to be one of the best when it comes to tee-to-green play. The following golfers didn’t quite make the +1.65 per round cutoff point:
Collin Morikawa
Tommy Fleetwood
Min Woo Lee
Ludvig Aberg
Xander Schauffele
Justin Thomas
(Note: Once again, we have to make an exception for the LIV golfers. Given their elite results on LIV, I am going to assume that Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm have gained at least 1.65 strokes tee to green per round so far this year.)
Trend #7: There hasn’t been a repeat winner here since Tiger Woods in 2001 and 2002
Sorry, Rory McIlroy. At least you get to plan the Champions Dinner.
Trend #8: 9 of the last 14 winners had a win in the previous 6 months
A recent win has been a great signal for success at the Masters.
We are officially down to 4 golfers on our list of potential winners, and all of them have won in the last 6 months.
Best Bets Based on Masters Trends
Drumroll, please….
Jon Rahm (+1100, BetMGM)
Rahm is a previous winner of the Masters. He comes into the week in tremendous form on LIV. In 5 starts this year, he has a win, 3 runner-up finishes, and a T5. We haven’t seen him contend at many majors since joining LIV, but he’s one of the best golfers in the world. Not only that, but he’s been motivated to prove how good he is ever since he left the PGA TOUR.
Bryson DeChambeau (+1300, FanDuel)
DeChambeau is coming off back-to-back wins on LIV, so he’s in as good of form as anyone in the field. He’s already won 2 majors (both U.S. Opens), and he’s coming off of his best two finishes at the Masters. He finished T5 here last year and T6 the year before. The greens here have always given him issues, but he seems to have finally figured them out. I slightly prefer DeChambeau (+1300) over Rahm (+1100).
Matt Fitzpatrick (+2350, DraftKings)
I love that all 4 of the trend finalists are major winners. Fitzpatrick won the 2022 U.S. Open. He has struggled a bit with his game over the last few years, but he has clearly found something over the last 9 months. During that stretch, he’s been extremely consistent and has picked up 2 wins. He’s gaining strokes in all facets of his game, which bodes well for his chances this week.
Patrick Reed (+4300, DraftKings)
Last but not least, we have former Masters winner, Mr. Reed. He decided to leave LIV Golf and try to return to the PGA TOUR. He’s been playing on the DP World Tour this year and has already racked up 2 wins. His tee-to-green game has been truly elite (+2.17 per round), and you know he’s excited to tee it up with the best in the world again. On a per-dollar basis, he’s my favorite bet on the board.
As always, it was a blast sifting through all of the trends for this year’s Masters. Enjoy the best golf tournament in the universe, and good luck this week!
Image Credit: Imagn