2026 NCAA Tournament Betting Preview: Tips & Predictions From Our Experts
March is here! The stakes are high, and the drama is about to unfold. RotoGrinders and ScoresAndOdds have you covered every step of the way. The SAO experts already have plenty of premium picks posted for the opening round, and you can get 50% off your first month by signing up here.
Let’s bring in our guys Erik Beimfohr, Jon Schiller, and Jourdan Case to take a deeper dive into the field of 68!
What surprised you the most about the tournament seeding?
Beimfohr: Very little surprised me, which is, in and of itself, a nice surprise. The 68-team field looks exactly as all reasonable minds expected it to look, but there are at least a couple of small seeding issues to quibble with—mainly Vanderbilt for me. St. John’s was probably a smidge underseeded, but Vandy sits at 13th overall in KenPom and received a 5 seed. They are analytically essentially the same as UConn, Virginia, and Gonzaga. They even laid the smackdown on Florida in the SEC Tournament, but they weren’t particularly rewarded for any of this.
Schiller: After many years of the committee not taking into account the Saturday-Sunday tournament games, it seems that they actually did this year. Purdue moved up to the 2 line with the win over Michigan, which bumped Michigan State to the 3. It seems Arkansas also avoided the 5 line after beating Vanderbilt in the final of the SEC Tournament. There were a couple of teams, like St. John’s and Vanderbilt, that I thought might be a seed line higher, but honestly, it seemed like quality work this year.
Case: I think the committee did a pretty good job with seeding. The one that stands out the most is Vanderbilt as a 5 seed. I thought they could end up as high as a 3 seed. Haslametrics had them as “deserving” a 4 seed. They’re 9th in WAB and 12th in KenPom. Their only loss to a non-tournament team was a 1-point loss to Oklahoma, and they made the SEC Tournament championship game. I guess the lack of top-tier wins in the regular season was enough to knock them down to the 5 line.
Which First Four team has the best odds at making a Cinderella run?
Beimfohr: Texas – They limped to the finish line, losing 5 of their last 6, but their absolute peak ceiling is simply higher than all of these other play-in teams. They have wins over 6 tournament teams (including NC State), and they took down Alabama and Vanderbilt in back-to-back January meetings.
Schiller: I’m looking at NC State (again) if I want to get a team from the First Four to the Elite Eight or longer—their path is the easiest of all the play-in games, and they have exactly what we want in a high-variance team that can get hot and make upsets. They are 10th in the country in 3-point shooting percentage at 38.8%, and they force a decent amount of turnovers at 18.2%. They take care of the ball, and their general deficiency on defense is allowing too many easy 3s. However, 3s are naturally high-variance, and you could run into a couple of higher seeds who have an off shooting night. Will Wade, love him or hate him, won a game in last year’s tournament with Quadir Copeland, and I am sure he is looking to make it deeper this year.
Case: Texas – They are struggling coming into the tournament, but they are still elite offensively, sitting at 13th in KenPom offensive efficiency. Dailyn Swain can take over a game and make all the big shots. Matas Vokietaitis can dominate the paint, and the backcourt combo of Pope and Mark is solid. Gonzaga is the only team in their path before Arizona that has a defense inside the KenPom top 30, and we know Gonzaga is not to be trusted in the Big Dance.
What is your favorite Round 1 pick against the spread?
Beimfohr: Utah State -1.5 – This Villanova team is one of the more fraudulent top-ish seeds in this tournament. They have zero regulation wins over top-50 KenPom teams in the entire season. They feasted on the horrible Big East—never beating the top two squads in the conference—and wrapped up with a pathetic loss to Georgetown in the Big East Tournament. Nova is also without a fairly important role player in Matt Hodge. Utah State, meanwhile, rolled through the Mountain West Tournament, showing top-level form heading into the NCAA Tournament.
Schiller: Arkansas -15.5 – Hawaii made its hay in the Big West this year with an elite mid-major defense. They dominated teams by forcing them off the 3-point line and making things difficult inside with 7’0” Isaac Johnson. This is going to be a whole other level of issue for the Rainbow Warriors though. Arkansas has a team full of pros who are big, strong, and athletic. With potentially three guys to defend Johnson on the offensive end—Malique Ewin, Trevon Brazile, and Nick Pringle. John Calipari is going to have options at his disposal. Good luck to the Hawaii backcourt trying to defend Darius Acuff, who can take you off the bounce or pull up from the logo, as guys like Billy Richmond and Meleek Thomas are rim runners the likes of which Hawaii hasn’t seen all year. Arkansas is playing its best basketball of the season right now with Acuff being “en fuego,” and I think the Hogs have a shot to make it deep in this tournament.
Case: Illinois -24.5 – I have fallen for this Illinois team, and the 1st-round matchup is about as good as it gets for the Illini. They enter this game 2nd in KenPom offense and 28th in defense. Not only is Penn completely outmatched in every facet, but they have a profile ripe for regression and a 1st-round dud. While shooting 38% from 3, they are only shooting 46% from 2 on the season. Such a small discrepancy between the two generally points to unsustainable 3-point shooting and incoming regression, especially against a team as long and athletic as Illinois. Defensively, more regression is incoming, as opponents have shot a measly 31% from deep against the Quakers but 54.4% from 2. Eventually, the dam will break. Penn’s shots won’t fall, and their opponents’ will. I think that time is now against arguably the best offensive team in the country. Penn doesn’t do enough defensively to make Illinois uncomfortable, and they will get exposed at the rim and, really, all over. Illinois should win in a massive blowout.
What is your favorite Round 1 game total pick?
Beimfohr: Clemson/Iowa u130.5 – I am not sure they could set this total low enough not to like the under here. The pace is going to be an absolute slog, with Clemson sitting 333rd in pace and Iowa at 357th. Iowa is 30th in defensive efficiency, while Clemson is 20th. Bennett Stirtz should have some advantages in the pick-and-roll, but that’s about the only offensive advantage here. Clemson also lost key cog Carter Welling to a torn ACL in the Conference Tournament. He was their highest-usage offensive player and best offensive rebounder.
Schiller: Clemson/Iowa u130.5 – If you follow college basketball and you hear Ben McCollum vs. Brad Brownell, you immediately know it is likely to be a low-scoring game. I think this game might take it to another level. Despite Clemson’s defense suffering a little without Carter Welling, they still play extremely slow basketball and have a very strong defense, holding Duke to 73 points in the ACC Tournament and 67 points in the regular season—two of the lowest numbers of the year for the Blue Devils. Iowa is 357th in tempo in the nation (meaning only 8 teams played fewer possessions per game this year), and they are likely to use all of the shot clock to get good shots. Both teams are decent at offensive rebounding, so unless it’s a putback, we could have some “use-all-clock, missed-shot, offensive-rebound, use-all-clock” possessions. Both teams have better defense than offense, and with this being a 1st-round tournament game, I expect both teams to be a bit tentative.
Case: I’ll dip into the First Four for my total, going over 159 in the Texas and NC State game. Defense will be completely optional in this game, as both teams rank outside the top 80 in KenPom over the full season and both sported an adjusted defensive efficiency over 113 throughout conference play. Matching up with the nonexistent defense are two top-20 offenses; with NC State willing to push the tempo a little bit, we could be in line for fireworks. I think both teams get into the 80s, and I’ll be looking to bet an over between the winner of this game and BYU in the Round of 64 as well, assuming the number doesn’t get overly adjusted.
Do you have a favorite statistic to weigh in handicapping tournament matchups/predictions?
Beimfohr: I would not say I have any particular statistic or metric I look for in every matchup, but I think different metrics from each matchup can give you helpful insight. For instance, if a particular defense forces or allows opponents to take specific kinds of shots at a higher volume (e.g., 3-pointers, shots at the rim, etc.) and that is an area where the opponent thrives, it can be a major turning point in the matchup. I am also a particularly big fan of digging into the impacts of injuries and lineup changes. Teams can perform better or worse than their overall analytical profile based on these types of changes, and these shifts may not be perfectly priced into the market.
Schiller: I will split this into two answers—for matchups, I typically look at what teams WANT to do offensively and then check if the defensive team can stop what the offensive team wants to do or force them into what they are not good at, and then look at the reverse. Typically, with matchups and spreads, this is the easiest way for me to find an edge. For picking a Cinderella team, you really want to up the variance—they are likely to be dogs in every game and have the athleticism and size disadvantage (for mid-majors, at least), so you want the great equalizer: the 3-point shot. Turnover rate is also big for these mid-majors. I have seen a grand number of higher-seed teams choke games away because they cannot stop a press. An ideal “giant-killer” is going to be good at shooting 3s and be able to turn you over. For the title winner, the team needs to be extremely solid on both sides of the floor and have elite guard play.
Case: Offensive rebounds and turnover margins are vital. Teams that dominate the offensive glass and win the turnover battle have extra possessions, which can help overcome a bad shooting night. Volume is greater than efficiency—until you face a team of destiny, and then nothing matters.
What long shot has the best odds to win the title?
Beimfohr: Kansas is currently 60-1 on DraftKings. It’s been a roller-coaster season for KU, especially with Darryn Peterson, but their peak performance can beat anyone in the country, as evidenced by wins over Iowa State, Houston, and Arizona. Peterson is playing 30+ minutes per night now, and the potential No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft can be the best player on the court in any game. KU also has one of the best coaches in the country in Bill Self, arguably the best defender in the country in big-man anchor Flory Bidunga, and talented role players with both experience and high upside among Melvin Council, Tre White, and Bryson Tiller.
Schiller: This is tough because, to me, there are 3 teams better than the rest of the field: Michigan, Arizona, and Duke. If we are looking around the +2500 line, I would say UConn. Betting against Danny Hurley has been futile in March in recent years, and they nearly took out the champion Gators last year in the 2nd round as an 8 seed. This team has oodles of talent, and despite their middling advanced metrics, I think they shouldn’t be overlooked. If we are going 50-1 or longer, it’s hard not to like Arkansas. They are playing the best basketball of the season and have an absolute alpha in Darius Acuff, who can get any bucket when needed. I don’t like the potential draw against Arizona in the Sweet 16, but they do shoot the 3 well and can get hot when needed, and the bottom of that region is the worst of all of them.
Case: Illinois – They are currently 22-1 on FanDuel, which I believe is depressed too much due to the team being in the toughest region. Over the last 10 full seasons (2020 not included), there are 3 boxes a team needs to check to win the national title. First, they need a bare minimum of 2 NBA Draft picks in the rotation (10 of the last 10 champions). Depending on the mock draft or big board you look at, Illinois has anywhere from 2 to 5 NBA players in the rotation, including a lottery pick in Keaton Wagler. Second, they need to have a KenPom offensive efficiency in the top 6. 9 of the last 10 champions checked this box, with only 2016 Villanova not meeting that requirement, coming into the tournament at 15th. Illinois is currently No. 2. Finally, but less important, they need a KenPom defensive efficiency in the top 30, which 8 of the last 10 champions have had. Only 2021 Baylor, who was 3rd in offense, and 2015 Duke, who was also 3rd in offense, have failed to meet that criteria. The last little bonus piece for Illinois is luck. They come into the tournament ranked 305th in KenPom’s luck metric, meaning they have been incredibly unlucky thus far. They’ve lost 5 of their last 9 games, but 4 of those have been one-possession losses in OT. They aren’t a perfect team, but they have all the makings of a national champion, and I’ll fire on 22-1.
Which #12 seed or higher has the best chance for an opening-round upset?
Beimfohr: Troy – One of the teams I was most excited to fade in the 1st round of the tournament was Nebraska. They are the rare Power 4 team that never has an athleticism or physicality advantage over these mid-majors, and they rely on turning every game into a shooting contest to win. After starting 20-0, they finished just 6-6 in their final 12 games, and they allow opponents to take the 4th-most 3-pointers in the country on a per-attempt basis. Troy is incredibly well-coached by Scott Cross. While they are a mediocre shooting team, they are used to a high-volume, 3-point shooting game and have solid, rangy athletes to cause matchup nightmares for Nebraska.
Schiller: I have Akron moneyline on our plays over at ScoresAndOdds, and that would be my pick. Texas Tech tried to silence the doubters after JT Toppin’s ACL tear by beating Iowa State but fell flat in the final 4 games of the season, losing all of them. They are extremely reliant on the 3-point shot without Toppin, and they get relatively very few points inside the 3-point line. John Groce is a very experienced coach and will likely know this and game-plan for tough 3s. If Texas Tech cannot make the 3s, they are likely to have an issue with an Akron team that also shoots the 3 well and has a positive turnover rate.
Case: Northern Iowa – This year, we are seeing unprecedented weaknesses among the lower seeds. In the KenPom era, this year’s 12 seeds are the 5th-worst group ever per KenPom adjusted efficiency margin, and they’re the strongest group of the bunch. The 13, 14, and 15 seeds are all the weakest seed groups by AdjEM in the KenPom era, while the 1–5 seeds are all the strongest they’ve been. However, I think Northern Iowa has the best path to an upset. They play the 3rd-slowest tempo in the country, which will naturally ramp up the variance. They have no interest in offensive rebounds, as they prefer to prevent any form of transition offense. If successful, this will be a huge problem for the Johnnies, as they are heavily reliant on transition buckets, coming into this game in the 95th percentile in transition frequency. Saint John’s doesn’t have much in terms of shot creators, with Zuby Ejiofor being their highest-usage player as more of a traditional post-up big man. Bryce Hopkins and Ian Jackson are also high-usage players but are incredibly inefficient, with a 49% and 50% eFG%, respectively. Defensively, UNI is going to force SJU to make jump shots, which is something I don’t have faith in them to do. A little good variance for UNI in a low-possession game, and they are very live to pull off the upset.
Which #1 seed has the toughest draw and why?
Beimfohr: Florida – What a brutal draw. They drew the best (via KenPom) team at each of the 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-seed lines in any region, and they may even run into a Vandy team in the Sweet 16 who just beat them in the conference tournament and nearly beat them in the regular season. Houston is their 2 seed, which is almost identically rated to Florida in KenPom, and even the lower-seeded teams in their region are some of the strongest on their seed lines in the field.
Schiller: It is easily Florida. While they should breeze through the Round of 32 game, they have (per analytics) the best 2 seed, the best 3 seed, the best 4 seed, and the best 5 seed in their bracket. It’s unlikely that Houston, Illinois, Nebraska, and Vanderbilt will all fall before facing them—it really is the “region of death.”
Case: Florida – Vandy is underseeded, and they just beat the Gators and kept the regular-season meeting incredibly close. Houston and Illinois are the strongest teams on their respective seed lines. Houston’s defense is relentless. They have an elite backcourt with Kingston Flemings, Emanuel Sharp, and Milos Uzan, and Chris Cenac has crazy upside. Illinois has the size to match Florida, and the Keaton Wagler / Andrej Stojakovic combo can completely take over a game.
Who’s your favorite “contrarian” team to send to the Final Four (or championship) in a bracket contest?
Beimfohr: Kansas – I mentioned Kansas above in the futures market, but they would be my answer here as well. Certainly, all the reasons for them as a strong futures bet ring true here too, but the reason they’re the best contrarian pick also lies in their potential Sweet-16 opponent. Duke is going to be extremely chalky in all your bracket pools, but they showed some real cracks in the conference tournament without Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba. Foster will be out for a while, at least, which is a killer for their guard depth. As great as Cam Boozer and the Duke defense are, we often talk about the need for great guard play in March, and the Blue Devils are severely lacking in that area. Therefore, selecting Kansas to take them down can get you major leverage in your pool on a flawed Duke team.
Schiller: In most of my brackets, I am likely taking Duke, Arizona, and Michigan and diversifying with the Florida region, but that seems like the chalk way to play. So, I likely will have some other contrarian brackets with Florida making it out of the tough region and throwing another team in—UConn. I think people are overlooking them after they got worked by St. John’s in the Big East Championship game, and with Duke’s pedigree and their current odds, I think this is a way to be different. People are seemingly forgetting that Caleb Foster is unlikely to play until the Final Four, and Patrick Ngongba is dealing with “foot soreness,” which could certainly linger. While most of the players on the Blue Devils have a low turnover rate, Foster is really the guy who settles the offense and gets them into the half-court with Cam Boozer. I think the loss is likely to be bigger than people realize, especially with Danny Hurley being such an elite tactician—he will know exactly how to pressure the Duke offense to take advantage of that absence.
Case: Illinois – They are currently picked in only 1.1% of ESPN brackets to win it all. They are elite offensively and good enough to get the job done on defense. I mentioned the Keaton Wagler / Andrej Stojakovic combo and the height, but they also have a 4th-year senior point guard in Kylan Boswell and four guys shooting 35% or better from 3-point range. While they don’t force many (if any) turnovers, they don’t turn the ball over much themselves, and they’re a top-level rebounding team. They’re in a tough region with Houston and Florida, but they have all the tools to make a deep run.
Final Four prediction?
Beimfohr: Kansas, Houston, Arizona, Michigan
Schiller: UConn, Florida, Arizona, Iowa State
Case: UConn, Illinois, Arizona, Michigan
Championship game and winner prediction?
Beimfohr: Arizona over Houston
Schiller: Arizona over Florida
Case: Arizona over Illinois
As a fan, which game or storyline are you most excited to watch unfold?
Beimfohr: I’m a die-hard St. Louis Billikens fan, so I’m most excited to see if my squad (and specifically Robbie Avila) can get a win in the tournament in Robbie’s final college season. But outside of SLU, I’m particularly fascinated to see if the overwhelming consensus of “chalk” comes to fruition. Due to the NIL and portal era, everyone under the sun is of the opinion that we are very unlikely to see many upsets or any Cinderella runs in college hoops. While I agree, I’m looking forward to seeing what surprising results we inevitably get in the first couple of rounds.
Schiller: The “official prediction” of the Final Four is kind of an interesting question, as one could just go with the most likely outcome and try to gain brownie points. I will go with a contrarian “official prediction” here, as I do think UConn has a chance to beat Duke, and I think LJ Cason’s injury has hurt Michigan a little bit more than expected (they have played some extremely close games lately, a stark contrast to them obliterating every team they faced early in the season). Iowa State has played some elite basketball down the stretch and has the best 3-point shooter in the country in Milan Momcilovic, who is likely a matchup problem for the Wolverines. That being said, I will be a bit diversified in the brackets that I do enter. This will be a Final Four that I use. That leads me into the actual question here, which is the storyline. I am interested to see how the lower seeds do in the first few rounds with this new portal and NIL landscape. I am fairly certain we are going to see a boring first couple of rounds with the chalk holding pretty well. It likely makes the tournament a bit boring, but it should give us some elite matchups down the stretch. That being said, as a college basketball fan, I would LOVE to see 1st-round upsets, as that is the main focal point for me in the first couple of rounds.
Case: The Kansas/Darryn Peterson saga has been the focal point of every discussion all year long for me as a Kansas fan. With the new story about his hospital stay due to cramps and his ability to stay on the court recently, I have renewed hope. He has the potential to be the best player in the country if he can stay healthy and avoid the cramps. Peterson and Bidunga make one of the best duos in the country, and Melvin Council is a DAWG. The defense is still phenomenal, and Bill Self is still Bill Self. However, the roster isn’t well-constructed. They are a poor-rebounding team, and, as shown in the Houston game over the weekend, the offense can disappear entirely at times. Their range of outcomes spans from getting beat by double digits in the 1st round to making a Final Four run. Fingers crossed!
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