33 Things Learned From The First Week of MLB
Every Sunday, I will be providing you with an article that tracks some of the trends we are seeing in baseball, and that gives you some thoughts on how you can take advantage of these trends in the week ahead. This week, this article is taking the form of a list of 33 things we learned during this first week of games. Some of these “things we learned” will not help you at all. Most of them will.
Ready?
Let’s roll!
1) I still remember how to play MLB DFS! As I mentioned in my Tuesday article, I was a bit concerned that it might take me a week or two to get back in the swing of things after all the time off, but that has not at all been the case. This is good for me, of course…but if you are listening to my advice each week (in these Sunday articles, and in the Tuesday/Friday articles that are specific to those slates of games!), it is also good for you!
2) Speaking of my articles: My articles are, frankly, TOO long. Yes, you heard it here first. (Well, actually, you probably heard it in your own mind first, but now you’re hearing it here as well.) My article on Friday was pushing 9,000 words. My first freaking novel was only about 48,000 words! If that were the length of one of these Sunday articles (as these articles are designed to help you throughout the week), that would be somewhat justifiable. Not truly justifiable. But somewhat justifiable. But for an article that is specific to that day’s slate of games, and that disappears from the site by evening? Yeah. I need to cut down on the ol’ word count.
3) I’m not 100% certain I know, just yet, how to cut down the word count. Why? Because, honestly, those Tuesday/Friday articles were RIDICULOUSLY helpful this last week. I’m saying that so emphatically because the content in those articles helped me a ton – and I’m the one who wrote them! Those articles were super in-depth and packed with tremendously valuable information, and if you paid attention to them, you probably had no trouble putting together an ace cash game team each day, with some solid GPP offerings as well. This Tuesday, I’ll be shaking things up a bit in the actual structure/format (as I tend to always do in my articles!). We’ll see what that looks like. (Hopefully, it will look not-quite-so-lengthy, while still being just as awesomely helpful.)
4) You should be following me on Twitter. Seriously. I don’t tweet much, but I try to ship out thoughts that will be genuinely helpful whenever I do tweet. I made three total suggestions on Twitter this week. The first one was on Tuesday, when I reiterated what I said in my article that day: Jake Lamb was a great play at 3B that night, and while he would have lower ownership than Longoria (making him riskier in cash and a better play in GPP), I felt it was a coin flip between them as to which was the better play – and Lamb was $700 cheaper. That night, Lamb notched a home run, a walk, and 4 RBI. The second suggestion I made was on Wednesday, when I said: “Kevin Kiermaier is a beast. I don’t get this “bat him 9th” thing. Maddon did it last year too. Any nights he moves up, use him!” He moved up in the lineup on Friday night and went 2-4 with a walk, a home run, 2 RBI, and 2 runs scored. And finally, on Thursday, I said “Given the price, K potential, available arms, & likelihood of a win, I see Bauer as a very viable 2nd pitcher on DraftKings.” Bauer threw up 36 DraftKings points that day at only $7200 – notching 11 Ks in 6 innings, with 0 runs, 0 hits, and 5 walks.
5) Even when I try to cut down on word count, I get myself in trouble. This is something we are finding out right now. Hold on. Let me go stick my fingers in the freezer to cool them off a bit; they’re on fire!
6) When cheap batters move up in the order for a night, use them! I am starting work on this article on Friday night (as I watch the Sox and Yankees go into the bottom of the 13th – which almost makes you like a time traveler as you read this, because I do not yet know what will happen in this game, but you know, as you read this, what DID happen; whoa!), and not only did Kiermaier move up in the lineup tonight at a cheap price, but three other hitters did as well: John Mayberry on the Mets, Mark Canha on the A’s, and Cameron Maybin on the Braves. All three guys matched Kiermaier with a home run of their own.
7) Baseball is not as predictable as it sometimes seems! For most of us, this is not a lesson that has smacked us in the face just yet this season, but give it time. It will. Just because a cheap hitter moves up in the order does not necessarily mean he’ll produce at all. (Oh yeah Jose Ramirez moved up in the order the other night, too, when Brantley was out, and put up a MASSIVE game: a home run, a walk, a single, two stolen bases, and two runs scored. Sheesh!) There will be plenty of times when a cheap hitter moves up to #2 or #3 in the order and does nothing. It is a +EV strategy to always use the hitter in this situation, however, as it enables you to save a lot of money that you can use elsewhere, and to have a chance at huge production for a low price (while a bad game from that hitter will not hurt you nearly as much as a bad game would from an expensive guy).
8) People love paying up for names. Start paying attention to the ownership percentages of some of the top hitters in baseball. You’ll notice that most of them are highly-owned every night, almost regardless of matchup (the only time ownership gets suppressed is when these guys are facing an elite pitcher – and they still tend to be highly-owned then). If a top hitter is in a poor matchup, and a very good hitter is in an excellent matchup, this very good hitter will cost less, and will have a better night than that top hitter more times than not. By realizing this, you can gain an edge on the field. Sure, there may be days when that top hitter has a huge game you miss out on, but over time, you will win more often than you would win trying to pay up for the top hitter in a difficult matchup.
9) Spring Training matters. Sort of. While hitting performance is not necessarily predictive from one day to the next, pitching performance tends to be far more predictive. Jeff Samardzija and Bud Norris both looked atrocious in Spring Training. They each carried that over into the season. With that said, I went as far as using this knowledge to stay away from these pitchers…but I did not trust this knowledge enough to go out and target these pitchers with hitters. To me, that’s a bit too much “guesswork.”
10) BvP matters. Sort of. (But not really…) Every once in a while, you come across truly extreme BvP stats, such as Pablo Sandoval being 8 for 11 vs Nathan Eovaldi in his career. He tacked on 2 more hits vs Eovaldi on Friday night, to move up to 10 for 14 against him lifetime. While I never use BvP as the basis of my research, I do feel that extreme numbers such as this are an easy indication that it’s a good matchup for the hitter. And, of course, we always want to target good matchups.
11) Roster top pitchers. It’s something that will always be the case in MLB DFS: pitching is far easier to predict than hitting. As such, you need to be willing to take values with bats if you have to, in order to make sure you are not taking on too much risk with pitchers. Why? Well, frankly, you take on risk no matter what hitters you roster, as even the best hitters will fail to get a hit about 70% of the time. But when you roster a top pitcher, you have a much greater chance of adding a top performance to your roster.
11) “Top pitchers” does not always mean “most expensive pitchers.” Oftentimes, you can find pitchers who are priced too high for their expected production (either because they have been pitching poorly lately and this is likely to continue, or because they are in a tough matchup, or because their name is bigger than their actual game), and you can usually find lower-priced pitchers who will have a shot to pass even the high-priced guys (typically, these are either young pitchers with electric stuff who have not yet had enough performances for the pricing to catch up, or it is inconsistent pitchers who have high-strikeout stuff and are facing a high-strikeout lineup).
12) Lineups that strike out a lot are going to strike out a lot! As we get another couple weeks into the season, we will start collecting reliable K% data on rosters. Once that happens, realize that a lineup that strikes out at, say, a 23% rate has recorded that rate against ALL pitchers – even non-strikeout guys. And pitchers who have, say, a 27% K-rate have recorded those strikeouts against ALL lineups they face – even lineups that don’t strike out a lot. When a high-K pitcher matches up with a high-K lineup, we are likely to see a lot of strikeouts!
13) Some of last year’s high-K teams seem to have stayed the same. The Reds, Cubs, and Astros are once again among the strikeout leaders so far this year. So are the Padres, but they had to deal with several high-strikeout guys to start the year, so we’ll see how that shakes out.
14) Some of last year’s high-K teams may have corrected their issues. The Mariners, Braves, and White Sox, in particular, have greatly improved on last year’s strikeout numbers so far. So have the Rangers, to a slightly lesser extent. Keep an eye on these teams throughout the week to see if this remains the case, but they may end up being teams you don’t necessarily want to target for Ks.
15) The Royals still do not strike out. Like…they practically don’t strike out at all. It’s ridiculous.
16) Some of last year’s low-strikeout teams have been striking out a lot to start the year. Particularly, the Cardinals have been striking out a lot. Once again, however, give this some time to see how it shakes out before targeting them with pitchers. More than likely, this is a situation of “small sample size,” and this early trend will correct itself. Also, the Nationals have struck out a lot to start the year, but they are missing Denard Span, Jayson Werth, and Anthony Rendon. This is one reason why paying attention to recent strikeout numbers will be important later in the year; you don’t want to look at the Nats’ high-K numbers a month from now and assume that’s still the case!
17) People are always wondering where to research stuff. The answer? Fangraphs and Baseball Reference are the two best places to start!
18) Weather matters! Listen: it is a -EV proposition to target players in your cash game lineups who are playing in games that are likely to be postponed. Makes sense, doesn’t it? But the other day, when the Twins and Tigers were delayed almost four hours, there was still shockingly high ownership numbers for Tigers hitters, as well as for Shane Greene. Not just in tournaments (where that would be a smart way to try to capture low ownership). But in cash games, too! Remember: in cash games, you want the safest possible plays. Differentiation does not matter. And yes, I know it was an afternoon game, so “It makes sense they’ll wait as long as they can for the weather to clear so they can play the game.” But all the beat writers before the game started (and even an hour into the rain delay) were very much convinced the game would be postponed. I was particularly annoyed by that, on that day, because that is the one day so far on which I have failed to cash in cash games…and I just barely fell out of the money, when all that Tigers ownership passed me late! But seriously: in the long run, you’re going to lose more money than you are going to win in that scenario, as a bunch of zeroes in your hitter slots (or in your pitcher slot!) is not going to put you in position to win money.
19) Sometimes, I get worked up about things that annoyed me, and I try to pretend they are problems that pertain to all of us. See #18 for an example of this. Because, really, if you want to target players on your cash game lineups who are in a game that is expected to be postponed, be my guest.
20) I am inundated with tasks, work, and general business at the moment. I probably owe about 15 people responses to private messages or emails they have sent me with questions about MLB DFS thoughts and research. If you are among these people, I apologize! I do always try to respond to any questions people have for me. Over the last week, however (and bleeding into this upcoming week), I have had pretty much zero downtime (and have gotten far too little sleep!) because my DFS study, my RotoGrinders articles, my fiction writing, and my freelance work have combined to take up more time than I actually have in my days! Once things slow down in a week or so, I will get back to anyone who has sent me any questions!
21) People will inevitably overreact to small sample sizes. This one is pretty self-explanatory. When you research your stats, look at numbers from last year, or better yet from the last two years, or better yet from the last three years. This is far more predictive than the stats a hitter or pitcher has put together through the first week of a season.
22) People will inevitably overestimate the value of a “hot” hitter. And I don’t mean the way the hitter looks (if I meant that, we’d all be using Ryan Hanigan every game… am I right?). What I mean, instead, is that people like to target hitters who are “hitting the ball well lately.” Because this is absolutely non-predictive, however, what these people end up doing is simply overpaying for past production (an approach Bill Belichick would be ashamed of!).
23) People will inevitably overestimate the importance of a hitter being “cold.” If a hitter has had a few bad games, this does not mean they are a poor play “until they turn it around.” Instead (unless there is an underlying injury, or there is something mechanically wrong with their swing – which, let’s face it, none of us are going to be able to accurately spot from our couches!), a few days of “cold” hitting really just means we have a chance to buy low on a guy.
24) There are exceptions to the whole “streakiness” thing. Namely, there are two exceptions that I have noticed over the last couple years: Adrian Gonzalez, and Justin Upton. Each of them seem to get their home runs in bunches, where they will have several in a few short days, then none for weeks. I mentioned this to a buddy the other day (Wednesday – the day I took the day off), as Gonzales had homered in back-to-back games. My buddy employed Gonzalez that night, and – at around 5% ownership – Gonzalez hit three solo blasts. Now, his price is up, and people are excited to use him. Next time, pay attention and wait for a game in which one of these two guys hits a homer, then use them the next day before their price has gone up. It won’t work every time, but it sure can’t hurt to try!
25) Injuries really do matter! I said we cannot identify injuries from our couches. We can, however, pay attention to beat writer reports to find players who are playing hurt. For example: last year, if you followed the Red Sox, you would know Pedroia and Buchholz were fighting through injuries all year. You would also then know that they were underpriced coming into this season. You would also then have used Buch on Opening Day against the Phillies, and you would have used Pedroia in a lefty/righty matchup on Opening Day as well (even though that lefty was Cole Hamels – as Pedroia’s price was just too low to justify not using him). You would also have profited that day as a result! Pay attention to beat writer reports around the league! If you are wondering whether a guy is simply “cold” (which really means nothing) or is instead actually playing through injuries, take a few minutes to discover whether or not you can find any reports (or even rumors) that answer this question.
26) Just because you are “definitely not” using a pitcher on your lineup does not automatically mean they are a strong pitcher to use hitters against! I see this one all the time: people heavily target a pitcher simply because there is “no way” they would use that pitcher on their roster. When picking a pitcher for your team, however, you want strikeouts. When targeting a pitcher with hitters, you want runs (preferably home runs!). Just because a pitcher does not rack up strikeouts does not automatically mean he gives up a bunch of runs and homers. In fact, the opposite is often the case, as there are a lot of good pitchers who make a living by inducing weak contact and ground balls because they can’t get strikeouts; you don’t want to use hitters against these guys, and you need to know what pitchers’ strengths and weaknesses are in order to know who to target with hitters. (More specifically: you need to know a pitcher’s “wOBA splits allowed” before you go using hitters against him!)
27) Just because a game is at Coors Field does not mean you should automatically load up on players in that game! I’ve said it time and again in these articles already (and I’ll continue to say it all season) – predicting pitching is the most important element of MLB DFS. This goes for picking the pitchers on your team as well as for picking hitters. And when you learn to properly project pitching performance, you will also realize that there are a lot of times when the game being played at Coors Field is not likely to be as high-scoring as everyone always imagines Coors Field games will be! On these days, you can gain a big GPP edge by stacking teams away from Coors Field. On those days when Coors Field is heavily stacked, that game is low scoring, and your stacks do well, you are going to make a lot of money. On Friday, I ended up using Tyler Matzek as one of my two cash game pitchers on DraftKings. Of course, that’s not something I would ever WANT to do (it was something, instead, I did because there were so few pitching options in that early slate!), but still, Matzek was a solid enough play that he was, in my opinion, the second-best option available on that weak slate of pitchers, even with his game being at Coors Field. And yet, ownership of Cubs bats against Matzek was super high in cash games! If you read my article on Friday, you would have known the reasons why I was wary of taking Cubs bats that day, even with the game in Coors Field. But most people ignore research when there is a game at Coors Field, instead assuming that using a bunch of hitters from that game is automatically the safest option. Always dig a bit deeper! Understanding how to use Coors Field to your advantage can be massively beneficial – and it all starts (of course!) with being able to recognize those times when a pitcher is actually likelier to succeed at Coors Field than to get knocked around.
28) This Red Sox – Yankees game is still going on. Ortiz gave the Red Sox the lead in the 16th inning. Then Teixeira tied it up again in the bottom of the inning. It is now the top of 17th. Wow!
29) You should pay attention to things like super long games, followed by an afternoon game the next day! Baseball players are human beings, too, believe it or not, and when they have to play six hours of baseball, get only a few hours of sleep, then come out in the harsh sunlight of afternoon and play again, there is a good chance they will be a bit sluggish (like waking up with a hangover and going to work outdoors). In such situations, pitchers against such lineups become far more appealing (as pitchers leave the ballpark early the day before a start). And hitters become less appealing. Consider the human element when building your teams.
30) But don’t put TOO much stock in the human element. Baseball is more of a statistics-driven sport than any other sport, and this means that we can use statistics in building our teams more than we can in other sports. As such, try to stay away from “narrative street” and from “gut calls” as much as possible. Instead, come up with a research strategy, pay attention to predictive statistics, and make +EV decisions that will lead to consistent profit over the long run.
31) We’ve cut the word count from Friday’s epic-length article in half! That’s a good thing…
32) This is not an article specific to a slate of games. Yeah. It’s going to be a bit harder to limit the word count when we get back to those. Not to say that those longer articles are filled with fluff or anything; as I said earlier, the Tuesday and Friday “MLB Edge” articles this last week were absolutely loaded with tremendously valuable information! But it’s just that, you know, that article is not the extent of your research! Do you really have time to read a 9,000 word article (about 35-45 minutes of reading) and still do your other research and build your team? An article of that length is fine during NFL when you have all week to prepare. Not so much during MLB!
33) I’ll do what I can do each day, and I’ll continue to improve. If you read the Friday article, you know what I mean! That’s how you climb a mountain, right? One foot in front of the other, one step at a time. And that’s how you improve at DFS – one step at a time. That’s how you build your bankroll. Do what you can do each day, and you will keep improving and moving toward your goals and accomplishing the things you hope to accomplish.
Bonus) Man, I love MLB DFS! Nothing in DFS beats MLB. Let’s keep enjoying this journey together – and let’s keep racking up positive days along the way!
See you on Tuesday, my friends. And best of luck this week!
(Oh, and yeah. Follow me on Twitter – JMToWin – if you want. I don’t tweet often, but when I do, it usually focuses on a play I feel strongly about.)