Primetime Parlay: 49ers vs. Broncos Same Game Parlay Picks and Props
Throughout the NFL season, this article will use ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool to examine building same game parlays across various sports betting sites for primetime NFL matchups. We will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props and betting odds across sportsbooks to pick the most profitable combination of outcomes for primetime games. Now let’s build our 49ers vs. Broncos same game parlay for Sunday Night Football.
Happy Sunday, Grinders! Likely already sweating some NFL action while you read this, we have an interesting game on tap for Sunday Night Football. The Russell Wilson-led Denver Broncos will host the new look but actually throwback version of the San Francisco 49ers. Trey Lance was lost for the season, so Jimmy Garoppolo retakes the reins for a team with high expectations.
Let’s use the ParlayIQ tool from ScoresAndOdds to come up with the best possible expected value on a fun ticket to sweat this evening.
49ers vs. Broncos Same Game Parlay Preview
The big story going into tonight’s game will surely be the loss of Trey Lance. The 49ers brought headlines all offseason revolving around what the fate of Jimmy Garoppolo would be with the shift to the young, dynamic quarterback. The 49ers chose to hang on to Jimmy G and in the most unfortunate set of circumstances, that decision proved to be very helpful. The expectations don’t get any lower as Jimmy G nearly led this team to the Super Bowl a season ago.
Returning tonight will be George Kittle for his first game of 2022. The dynamic tight end will make a big impact in the passing game but also in the blocking game as he is by far one of the league’s best in protection and run-blocking. For the Broncos, a trio of players are questionable for the game with their status likely taking us up to kickoff. Jerry Jeudy left last week’s game and is questionable to play tonight. Reports seem to point to Jeudy getting tested during warmups before officially making a decision on his status. Patrick Surtain II and KJ Hamler are also questionable, but both seem likely in for the primetime affair.
So far, both defenses rest in the top 10 against both passing and rushing attacks. San Francisco has allowed the fewest passing yards thus far, with Denver sitting in fifth. On the rushing front, both teams have allowed less than 80 yards per game. Of course, the caveat is the schedule for both of these teams. The 49ers lost to the Bears and then defeated the Seahawks, while the Broncos lost to the Seahawks and then narrowly defeated the Texans at home. For both teams, tonight’s opposing offenses is the stiffest test they will have faced so far in 2022.
Sports betting sites opened with the 49ers as +3 underdogs. Tickets and money have poured in for the visiting 49ers, as the line now rests at -1.5 for San Francisco. The game total opened at or around 46 points and is down to 44.5 in most spots. Given the track record of both defenses, we might be looking at a sloppy game. Let’s get to our favorite parlay legs for tonight’s same game parlay.
49ers-Broncos Same Game Parlay Picks
Under 43.5 Points
At the time of this writing, FanDuel Sportsbook posts a 43.5 game total with a little less juice on the under (-106). While we are aware that this isn’t the best of the number, I can’t help but think this game is heading towards being a low scoring affair. Both football teams want to run the football and the Broncos, led (sort of) by Nathaniel Hackett, don’t really seem to know what the heck they are doing. Russell Wilson has not looked great thus far in orange — a matchup against the 49ers’ defense can’t be the spot we think Wilson will snap out of his funk.
With Jimmy G at the helm, the Niners might throw the ball a bit more but will surely look to get the ball in the hands of Jeff Wilson and Deebo Samuel on the ground. The addition of George Kittle gives me belief that the Niners will find more running holes and happily grind the game out. Three touchdowns per side seems unlikely. Therefore, we open with the under.
Having the under in pocket, let’s look to correlate some player props with ParlayIQ.
Jeff Wilson Under 58.5 Rushing Yards
With the under, I do want to consider where I can go under with player props. This under feels a bit counterintuitive, as Jeff Wilson should get the lion’s share of the work in a game that I project to be a slog. That said, against a tougher front, Wilson shouldn’t find as much room to breathe as he did against the Seahawks. Also, in a more competitive game, how much more frequently will Kyle Shanahan call the number of Deebo Samuel?
Samuel took four carries for more than 50 yards last week. With that game in hand, the 49ers likely had no reason to keep putting their best offensive player in harm’s way. I expect this game to be closer, which increases the likelihood that Deebo sees an additional carry or two. With that said, those couple of carries eat into Wilson, especially if they go for big plays.
I am going under here and hoping to build some correlation with my next play.
Deebo Samuel Over 32.5 Rushing Yards
You guessed it. Most projection systems can’t project Deebo for this many rushing yards because he isn’t a running back. The volume is volatile. That said, when he totes the rock, explosive things tend to happen.
This number feels just low enough for one carry to get the job done. Of course, that isn’t the game plan, but it is nice to know that Samuel has the potential to leap over this number with one touch. In primetime, I expect the 49ers to make use of their star with Jimmy G back under center.
Our two rushing plays work together. With these three props in ParlayIQ, we are already gaining EV ground on what the simulations are posting as the price.
Javonte Williams Over 22.5 Receiving Yards
Finally, on the Denver side, I want to find a prop that is easily accessible with one touch and sticks with a tightly contested game. When the Broncos were behind but within reach of Seattle in Week 1, Javonte Williams saw 12 targets in the receiving game. Last week, Williams saw 4 targets for only one catch. What the heck is going on here?
I don’t think we can deny that Williams is surely one of the better playmakers on the Denver side. Hackett and Russell Wilson need to get the ball in their playmakers’ hands, especially against a stiffer test against this Niners defense. I expect Williams to be very involved in a big primetime game. If we split the difference on his targets, Williams should have no issue exceeding this receiving number.
SNF Same Game Parlay Review
- Under 43.5 Points
- Jeff Wilson Under 58.5 Rushing Yards
- Deebo Samuel Over 32.5 Rushing Yards
- Javonte Williams Over 22.5 Receiving Yards
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With the ParlayIQ tool, we are able to again find a better price than our simulations suggest should exist for this parlay. Obviously, that doesn’t matter if we lose our bet, but we should be taking care to get the best possible odds and expected value on our bets — even if they are fun primetime tickets. ParlayIQ offers this recommendation for odds with our parlay…
FanDuel Sportsbook offers the following odds…
Yahtzee! Let’s hope we can take advantage of the boost tonight.
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Parlay Price: +1450
Risk: 1/2 unit to win 7.25 units
Good luck with all of your bets and plays this evening. Share your parlays with me on Twitter and any other plays you are making for the game. First touchdown scorers? Touchdowns? DFS lineups? I want to hear it all. Thanks for reading.
Image Credit: Imagn
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