49ers vs. Packers Preview: Odds, Betting Picks and Prediction
49ers vs. Packers Odds
| 49ers Odds | +5.5 |
| Packers Odds | -5.5 |
| Over/Under | 47 |
| Date | Saturday, Jan. 22 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
On Saturday evening, the San Francisco 49ers and the Green Bay Packers will battle at Lambeau Field in a rematch of the 2019 NFC Championship Game. San Francisco was arguably the best team in the NFL during the second half of the season, winning seven of their final nine regular season contests to secure a playoff berth. Green Bay was embarrassed in their season opener against the New Orleans Saints, but won 13 of their subsequent 15 games to earn the top seed in the NFC playoffs. In this matchup of elite teams, oddsmakers are anticipating a relatively easy Green Bay victory–pricing the Packers as 5.5-point home favorites on the spread. Let’s take a deeper dive into the data before revealing our free play on the game.
49ers +5.5
San Francisco’s ability to compete in this game comes down to how well they will be able to run the football. The offensive line features four elite members–Trent Williams, Laken Tomlinson, Alex Mack, and Tom Compton–who will be tasked with creating room on the ground for Elijah Mitchell. Mitchell was outstanding during the regular season, averaging 4.7 yards-per-carry. Bettors can expect a heavy dose of Mitchell in frigid temperatures, facing a Green Bay run defense that has struggled mightily to slow down opponents on the ground this year.
Both defensive lineman Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner were forced to exit last week’s game against the Dallas Cowboys early, due to injury. Fortunately for San Francisco fans, both players logged a full practice on Thursday and are trending towards playing on Saturday. Since Week 10, the 49ers have allowed only 3.6 yards-per-attempt on the ground, and only 6.1 yards-per-attempt through the air. In that span, opposing quarterbacks have struggled to a 15-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and only Joe Burrow (in overtime) has managed to throw for 300 passing yards against this secondary unit.
Packers -5.5
Aaron Rodgers led the NFL in QBR during the regular season, posting a sterling 37-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Since Week 11, Rodgers has posted a sensational 13-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio, averaging 298.5 passing yards per game (excluding Week 18 in which he played only until halftime). The offensive line remains a concern for this group, but it is difficult to argue that an offensive attack featuring Rodgers, Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, and A.J. Dillon is, in any way, disadvantaged on a football field. Expect the Packers to move the ball effectively once again this weekend.
If there is one team that is particularly well-equipped to exploit Green Bay’s defensive deficiencies, it is San Francisco. Since Week 10, the 49ers have averaged 32.6 rush attempts per game, averaging 4.4 yards-per-carry during that stretch. On the year, only the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers allowed more yards-per-carry than the Packers. Green Bay also struggled against capable quarterbacks during the latter half of the campaign, allowing 341 passing yards to Kirk Cousins and 302 passing yards to Matthew Stafford.
Divisional Round Pick and Prediction
On Saturday, the temperature is forecasted to be near zero degrees at Lambeau Field. The media narrative unsurprisingly has bettors expecting a lower-scoring affair in this one, due to that fact alone. Yet, the cold weather is nothing new for Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay passing attack. San Francisco has an elite running attack, facing a pedestrian Green Bay run defense. Despite the frigid temperatures, both teams should be able to move the ball with relative ease in this one. Take the over.
- PICK: Over 47
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