49ers vs. Rams NFC Championship Preview: Odds, Picks and Prediction

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2022-01-29 16:23:29

49ers vs. Rams Odds

On Sunday evening, the San Francisco 49ers and the Los Angeles Rams will battle at Sofi Stadium with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Following a regular season sweep for the 49ers, the Rams will be looking to defend home-field in the NFC Championship Game–looking for their first win against San Francisco since 2018. In this matchup between two elite teams, oddsmakers are expecting a tightly-contested affair, pricing the Rams as 3.5 point favorites on the spread. Let’s take a deeper dive into the data before revealing our free play on the game.

49ers +3.5

When these two teams met on Monday Night Football in Week 10, the 49ers dominated the game from the opening kickoff–eventually securing a 31-10 victory. In that game, Jimmy Garoppolo completed 15-of-19 pass attempts for 182 yards and two touchdowns. Elijah Mitchell carried the ball 27 times for 91 yards. In the Week 18 rematch, Garoppolo was far less effective, completing 23-of-32 passes for 316 yards, but also throwing two interceptions. Mitchell totaled 85 rushing yards on 21 carries.

Both defensive lineman Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner were forced to exit San Francisco’s Wild Card matchup against the Dallas Cowboys early, due to injury. Fortunately for San Francisco fans, both players returned to the field for last week’s battle against the Green Bay Packers and looked fully healthy. Warner led the team with six tackles, including a tackle for loss. Bosa recorded two sacks in the winning effort. Since Week 10, the 49ers have allowed only 3.6 yards-per-carry on the ground and 6.2 yards-per-attempt through the air. Bettors would be hard-pressed to find a more dominant defense during the latter half of the season. This is also a defense that matches up extremely well with their opponent in this one. In two games against the Rams in 2021, the 49ers allowed only 3.1 yards-per-attempt on the ground, and 5.8 yards-per-attempt through the air.

Rams -3.5

In Week 10, Los Angeles was playing their first game without Robert Woods on the field. They were also trying to integrate “(player-popup #odell-beckham)Odell Beckham Jr into the game plan, which necessitated a slower pace and less no-huddle. The result was an abysmal offensive performance, both on the ground and through the air. In Week 18, Stafford struggled again–throwing two interceptions and throwing for only 238 yards. The running game failed to get going, totaling only 64 yards on 27 attempts. Following a two fumble outing last week for Cam Akers against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it is unclear how the backfield responsibilities will be split between him and Sony Michel. The only thing we know for sure is that it is going to be difficult for this offense to generate much success on the ground against an elite run defense.

In two games against San Francisco during the regular season, Los Angeles permitted 3.9 yards-per-carry on the ground, but a dreadful 9.8 yards-per-attempt through the air. The secondary unit remains a concern for this unit heading into this weekend, especially if Jalen Ramsey struggles. Against the Buccaneers, Ramsey allowed seven catches for 65 yards, including three first downs, per Pro Football Focus. Aaron Donald had a field day against an injury-plagued Tampa Bay offensive line, but he is likely to find life far more difficult against San Francisco on Sunday.

NFC Championship Prediction

In Week 10, the final game total between these two teams was 41 points. In Week 18, regulation ended tied with 48 total points on the board. In a playoff matchup between two teams at full strength on the defensive side of the ball, bettors should expect a relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under in this one.

PICK: Under 46

Image Credit: Imagn