Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 14
With the growing popularity of daily fantasy football and more new users arriving by the day, simply looking at the basic information and statistics available to everyone will not give you the edge you need to consistently submit winning lineups. Using data from Pro Football Focus provides a unique way to look at player statistics and participation not found anywhere else.
I’ve gone with some less obvious and contrarian picks worth using in large field tournaments with a lower ownership percentage. That doesn’t mean there won’t be chalk players listed – there are still players that need to be in your lineup.
The home stretch. While many fantasy footballers prepare for their season-long playoff matchups, DFS players have been grinding profits all season. It does feel like this week is different though. Maybe it is the sharp pricing across the industry with few obvious bargains to be had. Maybe it is the large tournaments kicking off this week and next. Regardless, we need to be as on point as we were last week. Each running back recommendation came through big time (but pay no attention to the QB duds) and were among the leaders at the position in Week 13.
We often preach about going contrarian in large field tournaments. This week, without the obvious bargains, it is worth paying up for some of the stud players in less than ideal matchups. Let’s get to it.
Here are the recommended FanDuel picks this week:
QB Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos, $10,000
Time to try a new approach. The quarterback picks have stunk in recent weeks. In an effort to find good value plays – no one really panned out. And Colin Kaepernick shall never be mentioned here again (OK, maybe not). Time to break out the big guns and there is no one bigger than Peyton Manning this week. Tough pass defense with a good run defense? No problem. Top salary without recent production to warrant it? No biggie.
Buffalo has one of the top defenses this year on paper. They have been the eighth toughest on opposing quarterbacks in the last three weeks allowing an average of just 220 yards and 0.7 touchdowns. Of course they faced a murders row in that stretch of Ryan Tannehill and then two quarterbacks who were benched mid-game in Michael Vick and Brian Hoyer. It is odd that through 13 weeks we don’t know how good Buffalo is on defense. For arguments sake – let’s say they are better than league average. They still allowed Philip Rivers to throw for 256 yards and two touchdowns in Week 3 and then Tom Brady racked up 361 yards and four touchdowns in Week 6. Buffalo has been able to be disruptive with an average of 4.4 sacks and 1.3 interceptions but that shouldn’t bother Manning. Per Pro Football Focus, he leads all quarterbacks in average time to throw at 2.25 seconds – a full tenth higher than the second place Brady.
Even though C.J. Anderson has been cutting through defenses like a hot knife through butter this is setting up as a pass heavy approach for Denver. As of press time, it looks like there will be seasonably warm temperatures without any wind concerns. Pat Thorman of PFF Fantasy noted in his column this week that Denver runs up-tempo on 52.2% of their snaps when playing at home. He notes that Denver will utilize this to keep Buffalo’s pass rushers tired in the thin mountain air. Don’t let Manning’s recent play deter you from paying a premium this week. He will be under owned because of the perceived tough matchup and we should see a vintage Manning performance of 350+ yards passing with multiple touchdown passes.
Peyton Manning Projection
Att: 39.7
Comp: 27.8
Yards: 355.6
PTD: 3.6
Int: 0.7
RYards: 1.0
RTD: 0.1
QB Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks, $8,500
Seattle heads east for a late afternoon contest with Philadelphia in what should be one of the best matchups of Week 14. Russell Wilson has rebounded in recent weeks after his mini slump and looks primed to take advantage of the Eagles defense. In their last three games, Philadelphia has allowed an average of 303.7 yards passing and 1.67 touchdowns. That’s a plus for Wilson. However, they have also been one of the worst defenses at allowing quarterback scrambles with an average of 17.1 yards per game. They have allowed a scramble on 4.5 percent of their pass drop backs faced for a total of 21 attempts for 182 yards (8.7 YPC).
We know Wilson likes to run the ball. He recently snapped a streak of three games with at least 70 yards rushing but 35 last week isn’t anything to sneeze at. He has been scrambling more frequently the last two weeks 12.8% than he has on the entire season (10.5%) and eight of his 17 rushing attempts in that span have been scrambles. Philadelphia is bound to flush him from the pocket based on the pressure their defense line generates in addition to the 3.6 sacks they average per game. Wilson hasn’t needed a heavy volume of drop backs in recent weeks though that could change if this turns into a shootout. He has quietly completed 72.8% of his passes the last two weeks – he will be up to the challenge.
Russell Wilson Projection
Att: 26.4
Comp: 18.1
Yards: 230.4
PTD: 1.5
Int: 0.5
RYards: 60.8
RTD: 0.5
RB Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks, $8,600
Marshawn Lynch doesn’t have many things going for him that he screams must-start on the surface and he will be under-owned as a result. Seemingly something new comes out in the media regarding Seattle’s star runner. This week the report is that Lynch could retire at the end of the season. Who cares? We just need him this week and he is coming off a good game against a tough 49ers run defense on the road. Furthermore, Lynch missed practice on Wednesday with his back injury and the team is just limiting his work mid-week. Despite all this turmoil, Lynch is having a better season than he did last season even with the reduced workload. He has seen 72% of the snaps the past two weeks as the Seahawks limit his workload yet he is averaging 20 touches per week. He is leading Pro Football Focus’ Elusive Rating signature stat with 70 forced missed tackles on 240 touches (29%) with 2.8 yards after contact per attempt.
This contest versus Philadelphia should result in plenty of fantasy goodness for Lynch. Seattle is one of the most deliberate offenses in the NFL while the Eagles are known for their up-tempo style and running plays with plenty of time left on the game clock. The Eagles’ defense has been stout against the run this year allowing just 89.2 yards and 0.6 touchdowns on the ground this year to running backs. However, they are susceptible to the screen game by allowing 4.7 catches for 49 yards and 0.5 touchdowns to runners as well. Lynch is not asked to make this a large part of his game but in a close contest projected to be high scoring – it would not be shocking to see Lynch haul in over three receptions. Do not be scared off Lynch’s well-documented home and road splits. Use that to your advantage – Lynch will be under-owned and is one of the few runners this week with multi-touchdown upside.
Marshawn Lynch Projection
Car: 20.1
Yards: 98.2
TD: 1.5
Rec: 3.6
ReYards: 37.6
ReTD: 0.4
RB Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers, $8,500
Speaking of PFF’s elusive rating, Eddie Lacy checks in at third overall behind Lynch in their signature stat. The Packers’ big running back has 49 forced missed tackles on 205 total touches (24%) and is making across the board improvements from his rookie year despite the slow start. His yards per carry, yards after contact and targets are up incrementally yet his red zone carries are down nearly one per game from last year. The easiest way to chalk that up is the frequency that Green Bay is throwing the ball in the red zone in Aaron Rodgers’ MVP caliber season. Lacy should see some positive regression in that aspect soon – especially in a prime cut matchup like this week at home against Atlanta.
We targeted Atlanta’s rush defense heavily earlier this season with great results. However, as year to date statistics have normalized – some previous cupcake matches don’t look as appealing on the surface. The Falcons fall under that category. Using some fun with arbitrary numbers, Atlanta allowed an average of 126.6 rushing yards and 1.7 touchdowns in the first seven games of 2014. In their last five, they have given up just 70.6 yards and 0.4 touchdowns. Did they seemingly improve leaps and bounds one week prior to their bye week? No, they haven’t faced anyone of consequence since their Week 8 contest in London. Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West (150 yards and 2 TD) are the closest to what Atlanta faced before their bye week. I would take Lacy over either of them any day of the week. With Las Vegas projecting Green Bay to win by almost two touchdowns, Lacy will get his fair share and should be the Monday Night hammer you need to put an exclamation point on your Week 14 roster.
Eddie Lacy Projection
Car: 17.6
Yards: 84.6
TD: 1.0
Rec: 4.2
ReYards: 33.2
ReTD: 0.3
RB Joique Bell, Detroit Lions, $6,800
Joique Bell was the value of the day hero for those that played the Thanksgiving-only slate last week with a second helping of 11 carries for 58 yards and a touchdown in the fourth quarter alone. Reggie Bush missing the contest gave him a late boost in value, however, Bell has been just as effective and productive with Bush in the lineup and not. Because he is not used as the every down back, the Lions will mix in a player like Theo Riddick to divide up the touches. So if Reggie Bush does return this week – the outlook doesn’t change much for Bell other than it could lead to more premium scoring chances in the red zone.
Tampa Bay is graded as the second-worst rush defense in the NFL and they have severely missed linebacker Lavonte David the last two weeks. Their defense against running backs has ranked in the bottom 12 this season with over 143 total yards and over a touchdown a game allowed. With Detroit being such large home favorites – look for another feast by Joique Bell this week.
Joique Bell Projection
Car: 16.4
Yards: 84.3
TD: 0.4
Rec: 3.4
ReYards: 24.6
ReTD: 0.1
RB Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers, $5,200
If there is one value contrarian play this weekend, Jonathan Stewart is probably our guy. With DeAngelo Williams’ status in doubt – Stewart could be in line for feature back duties against the Saints’ “air quotes” defense. Carolina is going to need to take the air out of the football to keep pace with New Orleans as 10 point underdogs on the road and Stewart could help them flip the script and keep the game competitive. Given the way New Orleans has performed in recent weeks it is not as much of as stretch as you would think.
The Saints have allowed opposing runners to run for 160 yards and a touchdown with another 81 yards through the air in the last three games alone. Most of it is poor tackling and bad angles that matches up well for Stewart. He doesn’t have the minimum requirements to meet the PFF Elusive Rating threshold but he has 42 forced missed tackles of his own on 116 total touches (36%!) and 2.8 yards after first contact per attempt. It shouldn’t surprise us to see Stewart turn back the clock and display his early career form.
Jonathan Stewart Projection
Car: 14.3
Yards: 57.3
TD: 0.8
Rec: 3.2
ReYards: 28.3
ReTD: 0.1
WR Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos, $9,400
As we mentioned above, we shouldn’t necessarily consider Buffalo an elite pass defense so it makes sense to pair Demaryius Thomas up with Peyton Manning this week. The defense against wide receivers on paper looks stout with just 13.2 receptions for 159.1 yards and a touchdown given up each week. Both starting cornerbacks (Stephon Gilmore and Corey Graham) both rank inside the top-40 cornerbacks according to PFF. Graham ranks inside the top-8 while Gilmore checks in at 38th. Thomas moves around the formation plenty (LWR 42%, Slot 16%, RWR 40%, HB 2%) but his primary matchup will be against Gilmore. Gilmore hasn’t been torched in any given week per say, however, has given up a total of five touchdowns and a QB rating of 117.3 in coverage. A deeper dive into the stats shows some top level wide receivers have had excellent days against Buffalo: Brandon Marshall (8-71-1), DeAndre Hopkins (5-64-1), Brandon LaFell (4-97-2) and Golden Tate (7-134-1).
The status of Julius Thomas is up in the air as of press time, so Thomas should continue to see a large volume of targets. His target rate on pass routes run in the last two games is 34.5% and he is averaging 12 targets, eight receptions for 75 yards and two touchdowns in that span. There is potential for another huge yardage game despite his recent run of sub-100 yard games. His price tag and perceived tough matchup with scare most DFS players off Thomas this week. Use that to your advantage
Demaryius Thomas Projection
Rec: 8.0
ReYards: 127.4
ReTD: 1.1
RuYards: 0.3
TD: 0.0
WR Odell Beckham Jr, New York Giants, $8,200
So maybe it was going to be tough following up 10 catches for 146 yards and two touchdowns (including THE Catch) but Beckham still turned in a respectable seven catches for 90 yards against Jacksonville last week. The rookie from LSU is playing like a veteran at this point. In just his last two games, he has accounted for a 28% market share of the Giants’ passing attack and he’s caught 89.2% of his targets. Last week because of the Giants’ struggles, Eli Manning threw to Beckham with an aDOT of just 8.1 yards downfield (his season average is 13.2). Beckham had 61 yards after the catch and had more yards after the catch than he did in his breakout game the week before (58).
This week Beckham and the Giants face the dynamic duo of Blidi Wreh-Wilson and Jason McCourty. NFL Grind Down scribe ohnjz should be getting ready to do the Gronk spike now that his favorite wide receiver is facing quite possibly the worst cover corner in the NFL in Wreh-Wilson (116th of 117 cornerbacks at PFF). Actually, Beckham should see both but more of McCourty (63rd of 117 at PFF) at the end of the day. Both were huge culprits in Houston’s big passing output last week. Wilson was burned by DeAndre Hopkins (5-163-1) and McCourty let up a touchdown to Andre Johnson on six catches for 36 yards. Both the Giants and Titans are struggling at this time, but that won’t stop Manning from feeding Beckham the football early and often. The rookie will be worth every penny this week.
Odell Beckham Projection
Rec: 6.7
ReYards: 101.8
ReTD: 0.8
RuYards: 2.8
TD: 0.0
WR Brandon LaFell, New England Patriots, $7,100
As a Patriots fan, I’m finally warming up to the fact that Brandon LaFell might be the split end they have been looking for the last few years. It’s been fairly obvious to most, however, one of my biggest faults as a DFS player is that I am entirely too cynical about my hometown team. That aside, LaFell’s recent production doesn’t matchup up with his industry salary. In his last two games he has averaged 9.5 targets for a total of 14 catches for 136 yards and two touchdowns while accounting for a 23% target market share. His usage the last two weeks is interesting because against tougher pass defenses in Detroit and Green Bay the Patriots threw him more passes inside 10 yards. His aDOT in that stretch was just 8.1 yard downfield though it helped his catch rate (73.2%) improve on the season.
This week his primary opposing for San Diego is 5-foot-11 cornerback Shareece Wright. Wright ranks 112th out of 117 cornerbacks according to Pro Football Focus. In his last four games, he has allowed 14 catches for 166 yards and a touchdown (Torrey Smith) including 44 yards after the catch. Based on his four inch height advantage, LaFell should continue to see plenty of yards after catch opportunities. There is some concern with Brandon Flowers playing at such a high level on the opposite side of the field, though it would make sense for the Patriots to scheme around him if at all possible. LaFell’s yardage will bounce back this week.
Brandon LaFell Projection
Rec: 6.4
ReYards: 108.1
ReTD: 1.0
RuYards: 0.0
TD: 0.0
WR Jarvis Landry, Miami Dolphins, $6,900
Jarvis Landry is quickly making a name for himself like his ex-college teammate Odell Beckham Jr. has. The rookie slot receiver is becoming the top target on a team that already has Mike Wallace and the numbers back that up. In his last two games, Landry has played 75% of the snaps and has seen a 29% market share of the team targets. He is averaging 10 targets in that span and an elite level 32.5% target rate on pass routes run – and he is operating almost exclusively from the slot (88%).
This week should be a high-scoring affair between Miami and Baltimore. The Ravens’ pass defense has been non-existent in recent weeks. In their last three games they have allowed an average of 19.5 catches for 285.5 yards and 2 touchdowns to opposing wide outs. Landry should see the majority of converted safety Matt Elam in the slot. Elam has allowed 22 catches for 336 yards and two touchdowns on the season, but most importantly, he has given up 145 yards after the catch (or 43% of his total yards). This is key for Landry’s matchup this week because his aDOT for the season is just 5.6 yards downfield. Landry has gained 61% of his 515 yards receiving this year after the catch. Mike Wallace also has a great matchup with Lardarius Webb but the Ravens are more apt to roll cover to the big play weapon leaving Landry to work one on one with Elam from the slot. This could be the week he goes over 100 yards receiving with a touchdown.
Jarvis Landry Projection
Rec: 7.2
ReYards: 83.8
ReTD: 0.7
RuYards: 0.3
TD: 0.0
TE Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers, $6,500
The tight end position looks like a dumpster fire this week outside of Gronkowksi and Graham. Luckily we won’t have to dive into the dumpster to find a quality pivot off the big guns this week. Greg Olsen makes the most sense if you are not going to roster one of the big two. He has been as consistent as you can find with 5.3 catches for 79.7 yards in his last three games. New Orleans has been a bottom-10 defense against tight ends the last three weeks allowing an average of 4 catches for 34 yards and 0.7 touchdowns. It would look much worse than that if Baltimore could involve Owen Daniels more (2-7) because Jermaine Gresham (2-13-2) and Heath Miller (8-82) did plenty of damage.
Rob Ryan couldn’t get the proper mix of defenders to slow Miller last week. Slot cornerback Corey White (3-35), linebackers Curtis Lofton (2-13) and David Hawthorne (2-22) and safety Kenny Vaccaro (1-12) all took a turn with Miller in coverage. Olsen is better equipped to find the holes in this defense even with his current knee injury. He went without a red zone target last week but only has seven on the season. Last year he had 16 red zone targets with six touchdowns. He already has five touchdowns this year but that should have positive regression with additional opportunities.
Greg Olsen Projection
Rec: 6.5
ReYards: 83.4
ReTD: 0.4
TE Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati Bengals, $5,200
Sometimes recommendations do not seem to me make a lot of sense. Recommending Jermaine Gresham would normally fall under that category. But that is what we are left with if we want to skip the big two this week. Heck, even Gresham’s Week 14 opponent, the Pittsburgh Steelers, just blanked one of the game’s best last week. Pittsburgh held Jimmy Graham to zero catches on zero targets with just 56% snaps played and 18 pass routes. Graham later told the media that the Steelers undercut his routes and made their purpose in stopping him – which makes sense given that Drew Brees threw for 257 yards and five touchdowns without him.
Gresham has quietly seen 19% of Cincinnati’s targets the past two weeks with an aDOT of 4.7 yards downfield and two red zone targets. Despite blanking Graham last week, Pittsburgh still ranks as a bottom-10 defense against the tight end position allowing an average of 3.9 catches for 49.8 yards and 0.8 touchdowns. That bodes well for Gresham. He again should sneak up on most as a solid punt option in a divisional game that projects to be close and higher scoring.
Jermaine Gresham Projection
Rec: 4.3
ReYards: 49.1
ReTD: 0.7