Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 16
With the growing popularity of daily fantasy football and more new users arriving by the day, simply looking at the basic information and statistics available to everyone will not give you the edge you need to consistently submit winning lineups. Using data from Pro Football Focus provides a unique way to look at player statistics and participation not found anywhere else.
I’ve gone with some less obvious and contrarian picks worth using in large field tournaments with a lower ownership percentage. That doesn’t mean there won’t be chalk players listed – there are still players that need to be in your lineup.
The large tournaments have come and gone last week, but there is still plenty of money to be won in the final two weeks of the regular season. Navigating the potential minefields becomes exponentially harder with coaching staffs giving younger players an extended look, benching of high profile players (goodbye Jay Cutler), and playoff scenarios yet to be determined. On a side note, it’s a sad day for the AMP. For the first time that I can remember (and I have a bad memory), Odell Beckham Jr. will not be a recommendation this week. He’s uber-talented, yet with his industry price tag, tough matchup and seemingly the entire country chasing his points from last week, he is a fade. Here’s to hoping he struggles this week and sees a price drop going into Week 17.
Anyways, let’s get to it. Here are the FanDuel picks this week:
QB Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions, $8,200
As we have preached week after week in this space, the time to strike with a high-profile option is when he’s coming off a poor performance. Taking advantage of recency bias and variance is an underutilized tool for DFS players. Matthew Stafford fits the bill this week. He had an efficient performance last week with over a 60% completion percentage, zero interceptions and zero sacks. However, he only threw for 153 yards and a lone touchdown with a pedestrian 5.3 aDOT (average depth of throw) in the Lions’ 16-14 win over Minnesota. That caused his FanDuel price to drop $300 this week.
On paper, this matchup doesn’t look that appealing, with the Lions installed as 7-point road favorites (with a modest team total) over a Chicago team in turmoil that is turning to Jimmy Clausen at quarterback. With the Bears likely unable to sustain any consistent scoring drives, Stafford will have plenty of opportunities to take advantage of the Bears’ pitiful defense against opposing quarterbacks. Through 15 weeks, they have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in the league. Somehow they have gotten even worse in the last three weeks, allowing an average of 323.3 passing yards and 2.7 touchdowns. This game sets up as a potential rout, with the Lions getting out to a big lead with the passing game and then running out the clock in the second half with the game in hand. Stafford’s receivers also have plus individual matchups that can be exploited. The Lions go for the kill with their divisional opponent circling the porcelain throne while solidifying their playoff berth in the process.
Matthew Stafford Projection
Att: 35.5
Comp: 24.4
Yards: 313.6
PTD: 2.3
Int: 0.6
RYards: 4.0
RTD: 0.1
QB Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks, $8,600
Most people will look at the projected total of the Seahawks and Cardinals game and skip it over for the remainder of the options this week. That would be a mistake. Seattle is a heavy road favorite against a team that is starting previous castoff quarterback Ryan Lindley. That should firmly put Russell Wilson on our radars. Like Stafford, Wilson is coming off a subpar fantasy output versus San Francisco. The last time out for Wilson against Arizona in Week 12, he efficiently passed for 211 yards and a touchdown while rushing 10 times for 73 yards. Three of those 10 attempts were scrambles for 29 yards and included two kneel downs for -2 yards. The noteworthy item is that he ran 40 yards off a left end on a designed run without being touched.
Arizona has been a surprisingly tough defense for opposing quarterbacks this year, though they have showed some weaknesses in recent weeks. In their last three games, they have allowed 294.3 yards and a touchdown with 13.7 yards rushing to opposing quarterbacks. As we noted with Lindley starting for the Cardinals, Wilson could see favorable field position for the majority of the day. Using the RotoViz Game Splits app, we are able to see that Wilson performs better on the road than at home. He averages almost 10 fantasy points more on the road, including 40 more passing yards, 16 more rushing yards and 0.9 more passing touchdowns. Wilson should star in this contest that most players will overlook, and he has 25-point upside at a discounted salary across the industry.
Russell Wilson Projection
Att: 31.1
Comp: 19.8
Yards: 238.6
PTD: 1.6
Int: 0.4
RYards: 52.6
RTD: 0.5
RB C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos, $7,800
Whatever is wrong with Peyton Manning is C.J. Anderson’s gain. Anderson has over 20 carries in his last four games and appears to be over the ankle injury that plagued him two weeks ago. Whether this shift to a run-first philosophy is by design or necessity, Anderson stands to benefit down the stretch, especially with a great matchup against a struggling Bengals’ run defense. By any measure, the Bengals have struggled against the run to varying degrees. Per Football Outsiders, Cincinnati has the 30th ranked run defense, while Pro Football Focus grades the run defense as the 10th worst in the entire league.
It helps our cause that Anderson “struggled” last week against San Diego in the sense that he didn’t have 100 yards rushing, failed to score a touchdown, and was limited in the passing game. Those looking at his box scores the past two weeks will see a runner with less than three yards per carry, however, he held his own against two of the stingiest run defenses in the league. His yards after contact dipped slightly as well, but there’s nothing that should alarm us that a decline is imminent. As we mentioned previously, the Bengals are struggling with the run defense, allowing an average of 103 yards rushing and a touchdown with an additional 5.0 receptions for 51.0 yards and 0.3 touchdowns in their last three games. Don’t overthink this one. Take the discount the industry has given us on Anderson this week and plug him into your lineups.
C.J. Anderson Projection
Car: 23.5
Yards: 107.3
TD: 0.8
Rec: 4.3
ReYards: 34.2
ReTD: 0.2
RB Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints, $7,400
The return of Pierre Thomas has had a large impact on Mark Ingram’s snaps per game, though it has only had a minimal impact to his rushing attempts. Ingram has played 33% of the Saints’ snaps in his last two games, yet accounts for 65% of the team rushing attempts in the same span. All the talk that Atlanta’s run defense was improving has dissipated. We covered that notion multiple times in this column, but they didn’t face any running games of consequence in that stretch. In Atlanta’s last two games, Eddie Lacy (106 total yards, 2 TD), James Starks (101 total yards, 1 TD) and Le’Veon Bell (114 total yards, 2 TD) have all had huge fantasy days. In Atlanta’s last three games, they have allowed 75.7 rushing yards, 1.3 touchdowns, 5.7 receptions, 54.7 yards and 0.7 touchdowns.
The risk with rolling out Ingram is that he doesn’t see enough offensive touches to exceed his salary. The game could easily be a back and forth shootout, but it appears more likely that New Orleans takes care of business early and then leans on their workhorse later in the game.
Mark Ingram Projection
Car: 17.3
Yards: 86.7
TD: 0.9
Rec: 3.1
ReYards: 24.2
ReTD: 0.1
RB Tre Mason, St. Louis Rams, $6,500
This situation could not have played out any better for DFS players. In the two subsequent weeks after Tre Mason’s breakout three-touchdown game against Oakland in Week 13, he has gone on to face two of the toughest run defenses in the league in Arizona and Washington. He more than held his own in that stretch with 49.5 rushing yards per game and he accounted for 69% of the team rushing attempts and 57% of the snaps. What happened is now his salary across the industry is priced off his recent struggles rather than because of him facing tougher run defenses. There is some risk with Mason this week, but that is present with any player we input into our lineups on any given week.
The Giants have the 25th ranked run defense according to Football Outsiders, and the output backs it up. Through 14 games, New York has allowed an average of 107.4 rushing yards, 0.7 touchdowns and 4.9 receptions for 48.9 receiving yards and 0.1 touchdowns. The Rams are favored at home and should be able to keep the Giants’ offense intact sans Odell Beckham Jr. – setting up a game script that should warrant at least 20 offensive touches for Mason. To get the discount we are receiving on Mason this week, it’s a no brainer to roll him out where applicable.
Tre Mason Projection
Car: 20.1
Yards: 103.6
TD: 0.7
Rec: 2.6
ReYards: 20.5
ReTD: 0.1
RB Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins, $6,300
Lamar Miller requires the greatest leap of faith among the running back recommendations this week. His recent game logs suggest the team is unwilling to give him more than 20 touches in a given week, however, the numbers indicate a larger fantasy output is on the horizon in the right game script. We could see that come to fruition this weekend with the Dolphins as almost touchdown favorites over the visiting Vikings. Miller has been on the field for 57% of the running back snaps the last two weeks, but has received 72% of the team rushing attempts and 10% of Ryan Tannehill’s targets.
Minnesota has an up and down rush defense (sense a theme here?). Their run defense ranks 24th in DVOA according to Football Outsiders. There is conflicting observations of their rush defense when Pro Football Focus ranks the Vikings’ run defense as the 9th best in the league. In their last three games, they have given up raw numbers of 110.7 rushing yards and four catches for 31 yards. This could be the week they give up a rushing touchdown for the first time in three games, with Miller as the beneficiary. There is inherent risk in using Miller as a foundation player this weekend, however, he provides unrealized upside in tournaments because of his underlying numbers and plus matchup.
Lamar Miller Projection
Car: 17.4
Yards: 83.1
TD: 0.9
Rec: 2.2
ReYards: 16.1
ReTD: 0.1
WR T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts, $8,700
This recommendation comes with a huge caveat about his health and condition of his hamstring, but T.Y. Hilton is set up for a monster Week 16. The fact that he missed practice on Wednesday but still plans on playing this week should drive his ownership levels down more than normal. The recommendation isn’t scientific. Hilton is good at football and draws a dream matchup against Pro Football Focus’ 105th ranked (of 110) cornerback in Brandon Carr. The same Brandon Carr that we’ve targeted week after week with great success. The fact that Carr sticks to the left cornerback on 92% of the time means that Hilton will likely exceed his season average of 40% snaps at right wide receiver to exploit the matchup. To say Carr has had a rough season would be putting it lightly. He allowed eight plays over 30 yards this year – mostly on additional yards after catch surrendered. Jeremy Maclin caught two of those eight passes in two of the last three weeks, and he’s also surrendered two touchdowns to Odell Beckham Jr. (see I found a way to work him in to this post) and another to Alshon Jeffery.
As a defensive unit, Dallas has been tougher on wideouts recently despite having Carr be a liability in coverage. In their last three games, they have given up an average of 11.7 receptions for 177.7 yards and 0.7 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. If healthy, Hilton is in position to dominate. He has turned the corner in the second half of the season and is developing into one of the best young wide receivers in the game. He’s already exceeded his 2013 totals with two games left to go, and even more amazing is that only two of his seven touchdowns have come in the red zone. One was two weeks ago with Joe Haden in coverage on the goal line. Speaking of Haden, Hilton scorched him for six catches for 99 yards and two touchdowns. Hilton is good at football. If for some reason Hilton is limited or doesn’t suit up, Donte Moncrief would be the play instead.
Writer’s Note: If Hilton sits, expect similar results from Donte Moncrief.
T.Y. Hilton Projection
Rec: 6.8
ReYards: 114.5
ReTD: 0.6
RuYards: 2.7
TD: 0.0
WR Golden Tate, Detroit Lions, $7,400
Most people will gravitate towards Calvin Johnson this week, but Golden Tate could be the better value play of the two receivers. You will likely remember that Calvin Johnson took Kyle Fuller to task with 11 catches for 146 yards and two touchdowns on Thanksgiving Day, while Tate very quietly caught eight passes for 89 yards. Chicago has been playing sides with the outside corners, with Fuller and Tim Jennings staying mostly at home on their respective sides. Unless the Lions get cute on offense, Johnson will see the most of Jennings, while Tate deals with Demontre Hurst in the slot.
Tate’s usage and role has shifted in recent weeks as the second fiddle to Megatron. His snaps played has remained steady of 83% of the Lions’ offensive plays and he has seen 21% of the targets from Matthew Stafford, but his snaps played from the slot have decreased about 15% in his last two games. It is noteworthy that his aDOT has dropped from 7.7 down to 1.8 yards in that same span. His entire yardage is coming on bubble screens and smoke routes. That being said, this is a prime opportunity for Detroit to put up a crooked number on a division rival that is allowing opposing wideouts to tally 14.7 yards for 195.3 yards and 1.7 touchdowns in recent weeks. The presence of Megatron should make life very easy for Tate this week with lots of single coverage.
Golden Tate Projection
Rec: 7.4
ReYards: 103.9
ReTD: 1.1
RuYards: 0.0
TD: 0.0
WR Steve Smith, Baltimore Ravens, $6,600
If Torrey Smith acts as another decoy this week because of his recent knee sprain, Steve Smith could have a huge day against a struggling Texans’ secondary. Houston has allowed wide receivers to post 13.3 receptions for 164.7 and 1.3 touchdowns in the last three games, and Smith should see A.J. Bouye (9 for 93 yards) and Johnathan Joseph (10-110-1) in coverage on the outside.
Outside of last week, Smith has begun to spring to fantasy relevance again with seven catches, 70 yards and a touchdown in Week 14 against Miami. In theory, Baltimore won’t have to employ a heavy volume passing day to get by the Texans, however, when they do throw the ball there is a 30% chance it is thrown in Smith’s direction. He could very well have a productive day.
Steve Smith Projection
Rec: 5.9
ReYards: 82.3
ReTD: 0.8
RuYards: 0.0
TD: 0.0
WR Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks, $6,100
Russell Wilson is the type of quarterback that you don’t need to stack with one of his wideouts, but Doug Baldwin is in a great spot this week. He’s assumed responsibility as Seattle’s top receiving threat and has seen 74% of the snaps and a 23% target market share in the past two weeks. His slot usage has increased to 70% during that span and interestingly enough, his aDOT has been 15.2 (almost five yards more downfield than normal).
Baldwin’s likely main matchup will be Jerruad Powers in the slot. Powers is a league average cornerback per Pro Football Focus (44 of 110) but has struggled recently. Just last week he allowed Stedman Bailey to catch all four of his targets for 67 yards. In addition, Arizona’s defensive team performance is slipping in conjunction with the struggles of their individual defenders. In their last three games, they have allowed an average of 15 receptions for 207.7 yards and 0.3 touchdowns. As noted before, Wilson plays better fantasy-wise on the road, and Baldwin will be one of the biggest beneficiaries.
Doug Baldwin Projection
Rec: 5.9
ReYards: 77.8
ReTD: 0.6
RuYards: 1.0
TD: 0.0
TE Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys, $5,300
It is easy most weeks just to go with either Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham and call it a day. The problem with that is everyone thinks the same thing and any upside they have unless they have a monster week is mitigated by their high ownership levels. And, to fit their monstrosities of salaries under your cap leads you to similar roster construction to most of the field as well. This was really just a long-winded way to say that dropping down a tier at the tight end position can not only create more value – it can also help you create unique lineups that are not accessible to the Gronk and Graham contingent.
That is where Jason Witten comes in this week. Indianapolis has been brutal at covering tight ends this year. In their last three games, they have allowed tight ends to total 5.7 catches for 64.7 yards and 0.3 touchdowns. At the same time, Witten is becoming a larger part of the offense down the home stretch. He has seen 20% of Tony Romo’s targets the past two weeks and just last week looked like the Witten of old with seven catches for 69 yards, and he played in the slot on 32% of his snaps. He runs like a dad at this point in his career but can still take advantage of defenses paying too much attention to teammate Dez Bryant. This Dallas and Indianapolis game has one of the highest totals of the weekend and Witten should be able to capitalize on the back and forth between each team.
Jason Witten Projection
Rec: 5.4
ReYards: 65.9
ReTD: 0.7
TE Scott Chandler, Buffalo Bills, $5,100
Sometimes you have to really go off the board to find an intriguing play. Scott Chandler fits that bill this week. You and Scott Chandler’s family may be the only people to roster him this weekend, but hear me out. Oakland is vulnerable to the tight end position, having allowed an average of 3.7 catches for 40.3 yards and 0.7 touchdowns in their last three games. That includes a one target, one drop performance from Jared Cook and a two catch for 26 yard performance from Vernon Davis among notable opposing tight ends in recent weeks. However, hybrid fullback Cory Harkey found the end zone in Week 13 and Travis Kelce caught five passes for 59 yards and a touchdown last week. Kelce caught each of his five passes while lined up at a different position pre-snap. Savvy veterans Charles Woodson and linebacker Miles Burris are drawing the most of the tight end coverage assignments.
Chandler is also a player that moves around the formation. He has spent 80% of his snaps inline and spends the rest of the time in the backfield or split out wide in the slot. In his last two games, Chandler has played 76% of the team’s snaps and accounted for a 14% target market share. Two weeks ago when he caught eight passes for 81 yards, he was targeted at a 21% rate on pass routes he ran. This week he should exploit Oakland in coverage. If you are into the he’s due narrative, his two touchdowns have come in Week 8 and Week 12. We are on Week 16 now. Do the math.
Scott Chandler Projection
Rec: 6.0
ReYards: 65.7
ReTD: 0.4