FanDuel Week 17: Finding the Motivation

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“Motivation is the art of getting people to do what you want them to do because they want to do it.”

— Dwight D. Eisenhower

In our daily fantasy case, starting players who have their own motivation to succeed is the name of the game in Week 17. That is metaphorically, of course, because the real name of the game is Daily Fantasy Football.

And, speaking of “Daily”, it will be a while before there are more NFL games on a single Sunday. Much like your wedding day, make sure you take a moment to look at it through the windshield or side windows, as it will be in your rearview mirror before you know it.

THE 1 PM EST GAMES

Ten of sixteen games, 62.5% of teams, won’t know any other results when they hit the gridiron at 1 PM Sunday. For these teams, the information we have now is as current as they will have. This is a good thing for FanDuel DFSers, as it creates hope for those that need help. The main group of teams that fall under this category are the four teams still vying for the last AFC wildcard spot.

The Last AFC Spot: Sixth Seed

CLEVELAND AT BALTIMORE
JACKSONVILLE AT HOUSTON
SAN DIEGO AT KANSAS CITY

These four teams, Baltimore, Houston, San Diego, and Kansas City, are all fighting for their right to party, at least one more time. Because these teams are all playing at the same time, they all have hope. To start, anyway. For the squads that need help, it is ever possible that they could glance up to the scoreboard and see that their help isn’t being very helpful, which would pop their motivational bubble.

The team that you can have the most confidence in is the Chargers, who control their own playoff destiny (sorry Bob Costas) as three-point dogs in Kansas City. Also, the Chiefs rush defense has been porous of late, so consider Branden Oliver ($5,300), with 36 running backs priced higher.

Every other team vying for the last AFC playoff slot needs help, but the Ravens need the least of the group. They need a win and a San Diego tie (or worse) OR a tie and a San Diego loss. They will go in as huge favorites over their AFC North rival and knowing the Chargers are not favored. From hope springs motivation. If you are able to wipe Joe Flacco’s … well … whatever is the opposite of a masterpiece … from last week out of your mind, you can consider the Baltimore pass game. For me, I’d bet on Justin Forsett ($6,900).

Next up are the Texans, who are also huge favorites, at home against Jacksonville. Unfortunately for them, a win or tie by either Baltimore or San Diego ends their hope. Still alive and thriving is JJ Watt’s MVP candidacy, and Jacksonville has allowed 11 more sacks than the second-place Redskins, a full 20% of Washington’s 55 sacks allowed total. If you can find a site that will put a price on Watt, pay it, for the sacks and small touchdown equity. If not, let him drag the entire Houston defense ($5,400) to easy double digits.

Jamaal Charles

Last is Kansas City, who can at least (and are favored to) knock off the Chargers. Unfortunately for them, they also need two 9+-point favorites to lose in order for them to have a chance at the postseason. Still, given the chance to ruin the postseason hopes of a rival, and operating under the Lloyd Christmas theory of “So you’re telling me there’s a chance,” I expect full effort from them. If you look at what an artifact like Frank Gore did to the Chargers last week, what do you think Jamaal Charles ($8,500) will do?

For Jacksonville and Cleveland, as we’ll discuss below, just because there isn’t playoff motivation doesn’t mean there isn’t motivation. Houston’s and Baltimore’s pass defenses have been suspect, so consider Marqise Lee ($5,200) and Josh Gordon ($7,200) for your FanDuel lineups on matchup alone.

Bye and Large

DALLAS AT WASHINGTON

Having locked up the NFC East, the Cowboys will host their first playoff game, but the round that game takes place in is still up in the air. The Cowboys have lots of routes to get to a bye, which is the best motivation a team can have, as the NFL bye is undefeated. They even have scenarios where they lock up home-field advantage for the extent of the NFC playoffs. As to those scenarios … (eyes glaze over) … they’re a bit confusing. Sometimes they want Seattle to lose, and sometimes not. Sometimes they want Green Bay and Detroit to tie, and sometimes not. They always want Arizona to lose, but sometimes a tie is good enough. Fortunately, every game that matters to them is after theirs, so it’ll be an Al Davis, “Just Win, Baby,” scenario for them. Tony Romo and Dez Bryant, ($8,900 each), both cost a pretty penny, but are both probably worth an ugly nickel. How ‘bout them Cowboys!

For Washington, it suffices to say there’s been some unrest. Is this Coach Gruden’s last game? Is this Robert Griffin’s last
game? Is this the last game for the Redskins mascot? Who knows? To the extent all NFL players are playing for a job, they’ll compete, but there are few teams more likely to lay an egg this week. Proceed with caution.

Locked in, Like a Criminal

INDIANAPOLIS AT TENNESSEE
BUFFALO AT NEW ENGLAND

Neither the Colts nor the Patriots have any playoff jockeying left to do. The Fighting Belichicks will play every AFC playoff game in Gillette Stadium, and the Colts, as the fourth seed, will get at least one home game. If you noticed Matt Hasselbeck under center in the third quarter for the Colts last week, you see the risk. Maybe Indianapolis will want to build momentum after a Texas sized shellacking last week, and maybe New England won’t want to play their first playoff game after, essentially, two weeks off. You never know. These games will be played in Nashville and Foxborough respectively, but if you choose to roster a guy from either team, they might as well be played in the Danger Zone. (That makes US 41 and Interstate 24, along with US 1, the Highways to the Danger Zone. FYI)

For the Titans and Bills, the “no playoff motivation discussion” applies, but there are two other factors to consider. The Titans could conceivably have the #1 pick in next year’s draft locked up with a loss, assuming things go their way in Tampa Bay. While the players might play their tails off, it would be easy to see the coaching staff packing it in, to the extent they can, to ensure that first pick. Remember that Coach Whisenhunt is in his first year, and therefore has more job security than those with a couple losing years under their belts. For the Bills, last week they had the playoff rug pulled out from under them, by the Raiders, no less. Along with the Redskins, there are few teams more likely to let down this week than Buffalo’s finest.

Nothing and Everything to Play For

NEW YORK (J) AT MIAMI
CHICAGO AT MINNESOTA
PHILADELPHIA AT NEW YORK (G)
NEW ORLEANS AT TAMPA BAY

Drew Brees

With teams that have nothing to play for, playoff-wise, it’s hit-or-miss. On the side of “Play Them,” is the fact that every NFL player is basically playing for their job, every week. Contracts aren’t guaranteed, and things change overnight. Last week’s starter is cut this week (See Tate, Ben, maybe the 3rd and maybe not). For these teams, for the most part, I’m assuming the individual players want to perform for their own sake, and the collective effort of a whole bunch of individuals, is a good collective effort.

On the other side of the argument is senioritis. It’s every employee’s performance on a Friday. It’s going through the motions. These players are humans, and humans experience these things. Specifically, to the extent coaches motivate players, lame duck coaches might struggle to do so. That might lead you to be leery of the Bears and Jets. (The Jets didn’t look so “lame” against the Pats last week though.)

Ultimately, teams have bad weeks, week-in and week-out, and we as a community might explain those away in Week 17 by saying that team quit. Then again, with the playoffs on the line, Joe Flacco had three completions to his Ravens teammates and two to the Texans into the third quarter last week. Bad weeks happen. You are best off playing players who have everything on the line, playoff-wise, but just know that the optimal FanDuel lineup this week will have players who “don’t have anything to play for” on it. So should you.

THE 4 PM EST GAMES

Bye, Bye, Bye

OAKLAND AT DENVER
ST LOUIS AT SEATTLE
ARIZONA AT SAN FRANCISCO

As mentioned above, the NFL Bye aspires to be the Washington Generals, who at least bested the Globetrotters that one time in 1971, to end a 2,495 game losing streak!

(Side Note: The Generals were originally a team in the Eastern Basketball and American Basketball Leagues, until the NBA essentially cannibalized their league in the mid-50s. Before they became the Generals, they were the Philadelphia Sphas. What’s a Spha, you ask? It is actually an acronym derived from the (S)outh (P)hiladelphia (H)ebrew (A)ssociation, who sponsored the team. It was mostly comprised of Jewish players as well. If you think the Takes are Hot nowadays, a sportswriter named Paul Gallico once credited the team’s success to the fact that “(basketball) places a premium on an alert, scheming mind.”

Then, when they were asked to accompany the Globetrotters on tour, they changed their name to the Generals, after Dwight D Eisenhower. One has to question their motivation though, just standing there, while the Globetrotters dump buckets of confetti on them and pull down their shorts.

Also, after that Wikipedia rabbit hole I just went down, I think I understand how Alice felt, when she “got back” from Wonderland. Enlightened and confused, all at once.)

The Broncos have the two-seed and an opening round bye on the line, and it is theirs with a simple victory. There are some permutations where they “earn” the bye with a loss or tie, but they are dependent on the Bengals and Colts. Because they won’t know the Cincinnati result, start Manning ($9,600), both Thomases ($9,000 & $6,000), Sanders ($8,100), and Anderson ($8,300) with comfort. Also, don’t worry about the Oakland defensive numbers against wide receivers; they’re a paper tiger. The Broncos are the only Top 12 wideouts they’ve faced all year.

The Raiders currently would get the fifth draft pick, and can move around in the Top 6. Still, in a game with a rival, and having just knocked off the Bills, their friskiness can’t be questioned. To the extent you’d consider them normally, roll out your Raiders.

The Seahawks are this close to controlling the entirety of their playoff path, but even with a win, the combo of a Dallas win and a Green Bay/Detroit tie is their only whammy. Still, losing the bye entirely is on the table with a loss, so no worries about motivation here. The matchup, on the other hand, might be tough for anyone not named after a rapper in the Wu-Tang Clan.

For the Rams, their motivation is the least of their concerns. The ‘Hawks at home are much more formidable, especially now that they’re at full strength. Tre Mason ($6,800), thanks for all the help this year, but your services will no longer be required.

Arizona is far from “in control,” as they need a win and a Seattle loss. Still, thanks to the NFL playing the games concurrently, the Cardinals have no choice but to fight. More important might be getting reps for whoever their quarterback is. (I literally don’t know who it is, and I’m not going to look it up either. I don’t need that ruining my Christmas.) Ultimately, has there ever been a team fighting for a playoff bye will less fantasy viability? I hope not. Yuck.

As for San Francisco, SEE: Redskins, Washington and Coaches, Lame Duck.

Win and They’re In

Jonathan Stewart

DETROIT AT GREEN BAY
CAROLINA AT ATLANTA

“In” means different things to different teams. For the Lions and Packers, “In” gets a first round bye, while to the Panthers and Falcons, “In” is just in the playoffs. Either way, for all four teams, motivation abounds. Start them all, comfortably. You might be especially comfortable with Jonathan Stewart ($6,600) and Calvin Johnson ($8,700), as their matchups make them the silk pajamas of fantasy football this week.

THE NIGHT GAME

CINCINNATI AT PITTSBURGH

Cincinnati will know whether the two-seed/bye week is in play for them by the time the ball is first teed up, but regardless, the winner of this AFC North clash will play at home next week, while the loser will take their show on the road. Motivation couldn’t be higher, and the matchups just juice the pot. If AJ Green ($8,600) can go, he could hardly find a better matchup. As for Le’Veon Bell, consider paying any price up to —($Your 2nd Born)—, because —($Your 1st Born)— is just too much!

About the Author

GiantBallofOil
Luke Louison (GiantBallofOil)

Luke “GiantBallofOil” Louison is a microstakes daily fantasy player and integral member of Team KillaB2482 (Ranked #2 in NFL, #13 Overall). You can follow Luke on Twitter @GiantBallofOil

“You know Darren, if you would have told me twenty-five years ago that some day I’d be standing here about to solve the world’s energy problems, I would’ve said you’re crazy… Now let’s push this giant ball of oil out the window.”