MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 15th Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-08-15 18:11:13

NY Yankees at Tampa Bay

NY Yankees					Tampa Bay
Brandon McCarthy		Vegas Moneyline			Alex Cobb		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		TBR (-135)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.307	0.789	0.347	20.70%	SP vs. Left	0.209	0.610	0.274	21.70%
SP vs. Right	0.270	0.754	0.325	19.90%	SP vs. Right	0.256	0.689	0.314	22.90%
Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R		Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TBR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Brandon McCarthy – McCarthy is a rare example of a pitcher that was traded to the Yankees and has subsequently pitched much better. After putting up awful numbers in Arizona, McCarthy has lowered his ERA to 4.31 on the season. While that may not look great, how about the fact that his xFIP is a full run and a half lower at 2.84. McCarthy has a K/9 of 7.9 and rarely walks batters. He’s a solid contrarian play tonight against the Rays. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7200 FD, $14350 DD, $7400 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $14350 FTD

• Alex Cobb – Ladies and gentlemen, Cobb is back! Over his last 4 starts, he has only given up a combined 4 earned runs while striking out 32 batters. He has lowered his ERA to 3.41 on the season and is sporting a K/9 of 8.4. He has always pitched well at home and is a decent sized favorite tonight against the Yankees. While the Yankees do make good contact, I think we see another strong outing from Cobb. Rating = 7

Salaries: $8300 FD, $15000 DD, $8300 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $15000 FTD

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Avoid all Yankees hitters against Cobb. He has actually held LH hitters to a .266 wOBA this season.

Tampa Bay

James Loney – Loney is probably the only Rays hitter that I’m going to have any exposure to tonight. While I also like Zobrist, his price is a bit steep for the matchup. Loney is a nice value play though and McCarthy has given up a .348 wOBA to LH hitters this season.

Additional Plays: Ben Zobrist

Houston at Boston

Houston					Boston
Dallas Keuchel		Vegas Moneyline			Clay Buchholz		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		BOS (-149)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.257	0.656	0.294	23.50%	SP vs. Left	0.309	0.863	0.383	13.80%
SP vs. Right	0.256	0.683	0.304	16.90%	SP vs. Right	0.287	0.790	0.342	19.80%
Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs R		Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Dallas Keuchel – Keuchel is one of the few pitchers in baseball where ballpark factors don’t play a huge role in his performance. At least not when he is pitching the way that he wants to. The reason for that is his 63% ground ball rate. That said, Keuchel is not getting any love from Vegas as he is a +140 underdog in a game that features a high run total. There are safer plays on the board and you don’t need to take the risk with Keuchel tonight. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7700 FD, $15000 DD, $6900 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $15000 FTD

• Clay Buchholz – Buchholz hasn’t been as bad as his 5.99 ERA suggests, but he’s still not a recommended fantasy option. His velocity and his strikeouts are both down and his walks and opposing batting average are both up. The Astros have shown that they are a very capable offense. I’ll be avoiding Buchholz completely, but if you must target him, use him as a GPP-only option. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6400 FD, $12300 DD, $6400 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $12300 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Jose Altuve – Altuve is a hits machine. He’s always a tough out on the plate and once he reaches base, he’s always a threat to steal. I like the matchup against Buchholz and is a great option at 2B if you want to spend up at the position.

Additional Plays: Dexter Fowler, Jason Castro

Boston

Dustin Pedroia – Over his last 10 games, Pedroia has 14 hits and has scored 10 runs. He has crushed LH pitching throughout his career and is my favorite play on the Sox tonight against Keuchel.

Additional Plays: Yoenis Cespedes

Oakland at Atlanta

Oakland					Atlanta
Jason Hammel		Vegas Moneyline			Alex Wood		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		ATL (-111)			LEFT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.250	0.719	0.316	19.20%	SP vs. Left	0.262	0.692	0.310	24.10%
SP vs. Right	0.238	0.679	0.301	23.70%	SP vs. Right	0.247	0.684	0.304	23.30%
Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs L		Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jason Hammel – After a rough outing in Houston, Hammel has bounced back nicely by posting two solid starts in a row. He still has solid numbers on the season with a 3.60 ERA and a K/9 of 8.0. Tonight he faces a Braves offense that is ranked 27th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. The Braves also strike out at a fairly high rate against righties. Hammel is a good play at his price point. Rating = 6

Salaries: $6600 FD, $12450 DD, $7300 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $12450 FTD

• Alex Wood – Wood isn’t afraid to attack hitters. This is evidenced by his K/9 of 9.2. Wood has really pitched well at home this season with a 2.77 ERA and 67 K’s over 55 innings of work. I typically like to avoid pitchers against the A’s, but they aren’t that scary against LH pitching without Cespedes in their lineup. Wood may be overpriced a bit on FanDuel, but is very playable on DK for only $7,000. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $8000 FD, $16000 DD, $7000 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $16000 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Josh Donaldson – To say that Donaldson mashes LH pitching would be an understatement. He’s batting .291 against lefties which is pretty decent, but what is really impressive is the power. He has a .481 wOBA with 22 of his 31 hits going for extra bases.

Additional Plays: Derek Norris

Atlanta

Freddie Freeman – Freeman is coming off of a big game against the Dodgers. He went 3/4 with 2 doubles and a couple of runs. He now has 16 hits over his last 10 games. He’s locked in right now and is a viable 1B option against Hammel who he has had some success off of in the past.

Additional Plays: Jason Heyward

LA Angels at Texas

LA Angels					Texas
Garrett Richards		Vegas Moneyline			Nick Martinez		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		LAA (-200)			RIGHT		9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.189	0.516	0.236	25.00%	SP vs. Left	0.300	0.907	0.397	9.60%
SP vs. Right	0.202	0.538	0.251	24.40%	SP vs. Right	0.290	0.829	0.359	11.00%
Batter Splits	LAA BvP		LAA vs R		Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Garrett Richards – Richards loves facing the Rangers. In 3 starts against them this season, he is 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 24 K’s over 19 innings of work. He’s established himself as one of the best pitchers in the American League with a 2.54 ERA and a K/9 of 8.9. The Rangers do not scare me when they are facing a RH pitcher (23rd in wOBA vs. righties). Richards is in play on all sites, but his price on FanDuel seems more than reasonable. Rating = 8

Salaries: $8600 FD, $18400 DD, $10400 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $18400 FTD

• Nick Martinez – Martinez may be the worst pitcher on the mound tonight. He has an ERA well over 5.00 which is actually higher than his K/9. He has been awful at home giving up a .431 wOBA to opposing batters. I should also mention that he’s facing one of the best offenses in baseball. Rating = 2

Salaries: $5000 FD, $8950 DD, $4800 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $8950 FTD

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Kole Calhoun – Martinez has given up a high average to both LH and RH hitters this season so batters from both sides of the plate are in play. Calhoun is my top play here though as he is the most consistent bat in the Angels lineup. He should be able to put together a multi-hit, multi-run type of game tonight.

Additional Plays: Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, Erick Aybar

Texas

Avoid all Rangers hitters tonight. Richards has dominated this lineup on 3 separate occasions this season.

Toronto at Chicago White Sox

Toronto					Chicago White Sox
Marcus Stroman		Vegas Moneyline			Hector Noesi		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		TOR (-141)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.207	0.619	0.276	22.20%	SP vs. Left	0.224	0.695	0.307	16.60%
SP vs. Right	0.287	0.678	0.299	20.30%	SP vs. Right	0.319	0.865	0.380	17.10%
Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R		Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CHW vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Marcus Stroman – There isn’t much to dislike about Stroman. He owns a 3.34 ERA (3.41 xFIP), a K/9 of 7.5, a 51% ground ball rate, and he’s shown great velocity. The only potential problem tonight is Jose Abreu who has single handedly ruined a ton of starts from opposing pitchers. That said, the White Sox strike out at a 22% clip against RH pitching and Stroman should be able to K at least a batter per inning. I also expect him to see some run support with Noesi pitching opposite him. Rating = 7

Salaries: $7100 FD, $13900 DD, $7500 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $13900 FTD

• Hector Noesi – Noesi is a polar opposite of Stroman. He has a high ERA of 4.67, a low ground ball rate of 39%, and a low K/9 of 6.5. He’s rarely ever a viable fantasy option and that’s not going to change tonight against a Blue Jays offense that is ranked 1st in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6600 FD, $9700 DD, $6100 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $9700 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Additional Plays:

Chicago White Sox

I like Jose Abreu as a GPP play thanks to his multi-HR upside, but I’ll be avoiding the White Sox in cash games. Stroman has held LH and RH hitters under a .285 wOBA this season.

MLB Grind Down Page 2 – Page 3