MLB Grind Down: Friday, September 19th Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-09-19 18:11:25

NY Mets at Atlanta

NY Mets					Atlanta
Zack Wheeler		Vegas Moneyline			Julio Teheran		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		ATL (-145)			RIGHT		6.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.264	0.765	0.342	20.90%	SP vs. Left	0.229	0.671	0.295	18.10%
SP vs. Right	0.215	0.612	0.277	25.50%	SP vs. Right	0.218	0.585	0.262	23.90%
Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs R		Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Zack Wheeler – This game should be a pitching duel. Neither of these offenses hit RH pitching well and both of these pitchers have great fantasy upside. Wheeler has an impressive K/9 of 8.9 to go along with his 3.61 ERA. He does struggle with command at times as evidenced by his BB/9 of 3.9. That said, Wheeler makes a great tournament play tonight against the Braves who are ranked 29th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7500 FD, $15500 DD, $8700 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Julio Teheran – Teheran has been dominant at home this season. He is sporting a 2.00 ERA with 82 K’s over 99 innings of work. Teheran keeps his walks (2.0 per 9) and HR’s (0.9 per 9) low and should mow through this weak Mets lineup. The Mets are ranked 21st in wOBA vs. RH pitching. At his price, he should be one of the most popular pitching plays on both FD and DK. Rating = 8

Salaries: $8400 FD, $19250 DD, $8800 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets offense has been better over the last two weeks, but they are still the Mets. Avoid them tonight and target the Julio Teheran side of this matchup.

Atlanta

Freddie Freeman – The one thing that has been consistent with Wheeler is his inability to get LH hitters out. He has given up a .342 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate this season and Freeman is one of the tougher outs in baseball.

Additional Plays: Jason Heyward

Cleveland at Minnesota

Cleveland					Minnesota
Trevor Bauer		Vegas Moneyline			Phil Hughes		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		MIN (-125)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.244	0.717	0.320	23.40%	SP vs. Left	0.248	0.624	0.275	22.60%
SP vs. Right	0.261	0.746	0.329	20.50%	SP vs. Right	0.286	0.733	0.320	21.70%
Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R		Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Trevor Bauer – Bauer is a fly-ball pitcher that has struggled on the road. He has a 42% fly-ball rate and an ERA close to 5.00 on the road this season. Both are big red flags heading into tonight’s game against the Twins who are actually a much better offense that most people give them credit for. The Twins are ranked 8th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. While Bauer does possess good strikeout potential, he’s a risky option tonight on the road. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6900 FD, $13200 DD, $6500 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Phil Hughes – Hughes has been locked in since the start of August. During that stretch, he has an ERA right around 2.20 while holding opponents under a .220 batting average. On paper, his matchup against the Indians isn’t ideal, but Hughes has actually held LH hitters to a .275 wOBA which should bode well for him tonight against a LH heavy Indians lineup. Julio Teheran is a better cash game play at that price point, but Hughes is a better tournament play. Rating = 6

Salaries: $8600 FD, $18600 DD, $9000 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Michael Brantley – If you are not a fan of Hughes tonight, Brantley could be a nice play against him. Brantley has mashed RH pitching to the tune of a .336 batting average and a .397 wOBA this season.

Additional Plays: Michael Bourn

Minnesota

Kennys Vargas – Vargas is having a truly impressive rookie season. If he was playing in a bigger market, he would get a lot more publicity for the great start that he has had in his young career. Vargas has 8 home runs and 36 RBI’s through his first 44 major-league games. He’s done most of his damage against right-hand pitching as he is batting .336 with a .406 wOBA against righties this season.

Additional Plays: Brian Dozier

Seattle at Houston

Seattle					Houston
Taijuan Walker		Vegas Moneyline			Brad Peacock		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		SEA (-140)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.286	0.902	0.402	12.50%	SP vs. Left	0.267	0.782	0.343	19.50%
SP vs. Right	0.125	0.411	0.191	30.20%	SP vs. Right	0.256	0.804	0.355	20.90%
Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs R		Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Taijuan Walker – Walker remains one of the Mariners top prospects. He has been electric at the minor league level with a double-digit strikeout rate per 9 innings. He has had problems with his command in his few major league starts, but the Astros typically help opposing pitchers with that as they swing at a ton of pitches outside of the zone. Walker provides great strikeout potential at a very reasonable price. Target him as a tournament play tonight. Rating = 6

Salaries: $6000 FD, $9850 DD, $8000 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Brad Peacock – Peacock is not a recommended fantasy option. While he has pitched well over his last few starts, he’s going to have to do more than that before I am a believer. He is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up too many HR’s. He is also pitching in a hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park. Avoid him tonight against the Mariners who are still in the running for that last Wildcard spot in the American League. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5800 FD, $9400 DD, $6200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Kyle Seager – Peacock has already given up 17 HR’s this season in only 22 starts. He has also given up a .343 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate this season. Seager has really hit RH pitching well with a .383 wOBA including 20 home runs.

Additional Plays: Robinson Cano, Dustin Ackley

Houston

The Astros bats have gone ice cold. They were nowhere to be found in the Indians series and now face a high strikeout pitcher in Taijuan Walker. Avoid the Astros offense tonight.

Detroit at Kansas City

Detroit					Kansas City
Justin Verlander		Vegas Moneyline			Jason Vargas		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		KCR (-115)			LEFT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.233	0.691	0.307	19.20%	SP vs. Left	0.270	0.668	0.298	16.60%
SP vs. Right	0.329	0.883	0.386	15.90%	SP vs. Right	0.256	0.707	0.310	16.80%
Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs L		Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KCR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Justin Verlander – Verlander has been an easy pitcher to avoid all season long. While he does have his velocity back, his pitches have very little life on them. His strikeouts are down and he faces a Royals offense that strikes out fewer than any other team in baseball. That’s not a great combination for Verlander tonight. I suppose at his price you can use him as a tournament play, but there are options I like better in that price range. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7400 FD, $13200 DD, $7400 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Jason Vargas – The odds are stacked against Vargas in this one. He has struggled at home this season with a 4.22 ERA and he is facing a Tigers offense that is ranked 1st in wOBA vs. LH pitching. It would take a nearly perfect outing for Vargas to come out of tonight’s game with a good fantasy performance. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6800 FD, $13850 DD, $7300 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Victor Martinez – At this point in the season, you should already know this, but Martinez is very good against LH pitching. In 2014, he’s batting .374 with a .478 wOBA against southpaws. He’s an elite option at C/1B depending on which site you are playing on.

Additional Plays: Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez

Kansas City

Salvador Perez – Perez has had much better numbers against RH pitching than he has against LH pitching this season. He also has terrific BvP numbers against Justin Verlander. He is 14/33 with 8 XBH’s off of Verlander in his career.

Additional Plays: Alex Gordon, Billy Butler

Arizona at Colorado

Arizona					Colorado
Chase Anderson		Vegas Moneyline			Jordan Lyles		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		COL (-128)			RIGHT		10.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.207	0.683	0.302	18.90%	SP vs. Left	0.275	0.841	0.371	14.70%
SP vs. Right	0.295	0.831	0.363	23.90%	SP vs. Right	0.222	0.652	0.289	19.80%
Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R		Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Chase Anderson – Anderson has a low ground-ball rate and he is pitching in Coors Field. That’s not a great combination. The total for this game is set at 10.5 runs and you can safely avoid Anderson in all leagues. Rating = 1

Salaries: $6800 FD, $13250 DD, $6000 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Jordan Lyles – If you absolutely had to take a pitcher from this game, I would give the edge to Lyles over Anderson, but luckily for us, we don’t have to take either of these pitchers. As usual, avoid the pitchers in Coors Field. Rating = 2

Salaries: $6200 FD, $10550 DD, $5400 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Miguel Montero – Montero squares off against Jordan Lyles who has given up a .371 wOBA to left-hand hitters this season. Even better is the fact that he gets to face him in Coors Field. Montero has hit 11 of his 13 home runs off of RH pitching this season and should see plenty of RBI opportunities.

Additional Plays: Ender Inciarte, A.J. Pollock, Mark Trumbo, Aaron Hill

Colorado

Michael Cuddyer – Cuddyer is one of the top options in the outfield tonight. Anderson is a reverse splits pitcher who has given up a .363 wOBA to RH hitters this season. Cuddyer has been incredible at home with a .379 batting average and a.481 wOBA this season. Don’t be afraid to stack the Rockies in both cash games and tournaments.

Additional Plays: Charlie Blackmon, Corey Dickerson, Justin Morneau, Josh Rutledge

MLB Grind Down Page 2 – Page 3