MLB Grind Down: Monday, September 15th Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-09-15 23:56:44

Detroit at Minnesota

Detroit					Minnesota
Max Scherzer		Vegas Moneyline			Anthony Swarzak		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		DET (-180)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.241	0.687	0.306	24.70%	SP vs. Left	0.244	0.663	0.294	12.10%
SP vs. Right	0.222	0.620	0.274	33.40%	SP vs. Right	0.270	0.740	0.324	14.80%
Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs R		Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Max Scherzer – Scherzer and the Tigers have a game and a half lead over the Royals for the AL Central Division crown. The difference between winning your division and being a Wild Card team is huge so at this point, every game is important. Tonight Scherzer travels to Minnesota to take on a Twins offense that has been giving opposing pitchers fits. Over the last 30 days, the Twins have the 7th highest wOBA of any team in baseball. That said, this is Max Scherzer that we are talking about. He owns a 3.19 ERA and a very impressive K/9 of 10.4. He should be locked in for a win with Swarzak on the mound. The only issue that I have with Scherzer is his hefty price tag. Rating = 9

Salaries: $10900 FD, $21600 DD, $12800 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Anthony Swarzak – Milone was scratched from his start so Anthony Swarzak will get the nod tonight against the Tigers. Swarzak has done the majority of his work out of the bullpen this season and hasn’t thrown more than 50 pitches in any of his last 10 appearances. He also draws a very tough matchup against a Tigers offense that is ranked 4th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Swarzak is also one of the biggest underdogs on the board. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5200 FD, $9150 DD, $5400 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Miguel Cabrera – Swarzak has given up some reverse splits this season. He has held LH hitters under a .300 wOBA while giving up a .324 wOBA to RH hitters. In addition to the fact that Miggi is one of the best hitters in baseball, Miggy also has a nice track record against Swarzak going 6/19 with 2 HR’s and 2 doubles.

Additional Plays: Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez

Minnesota

Avoid all Twins tonight against Max Scherzer. He is a dominant strikeout pitcher that has held both LH and RH hitters under a .310 wOBA this season.

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City

Chicago White Sox					Kansas City
John Danks		Vegas Moneyline			James Shields		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		KCR (-220)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.257	0.733	0.326	10.60%	SP vs. Left	0.256	0.703	0.311	19.30%
SP vs. Right	0.283	0.843	0.368	16.00%	SP vs. Right	0.248	0.706	0.310	19.10%
Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CHW vs R		Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KCR vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• John Danks – I can honestly say that John Danks has not been on a single roster of mine all season long. He’s just so much more of a risk than a reward. He struggles with his command (3.35 BB’s per 9), gives up too many HR’s (1.24 HR’s per 9), and doesn’t strike out nearly as many batters as he needs to (5.9 K’s per 9). You can safely avoid Danks and his 5.05 ERA tonight against the Royals who have the lowest strikeout rate of any team in baseball. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5500 FD, $10100 DD, $5600 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• James Shields – Shields is a big game pitcher and he appears to have saved his best for the end of the season. The Royals are doing everything in their power to catch the Tigers in the AL Central Division race and Shields should provide another quality outing tonight. Over his last 3 starts, he has only given up a single earned run while striking out 18 batters. We’re getting to the point in the season where it’s never a bad idea to target the players on teams that still have something to play for. Rating = 8

Salaries: $8900 FD, $17350 DD, $10200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

James Shields is as locked in as he has been all season long. He has only given up a combined 12 hits and walks over his last 3 starts. Avoid the White Sox offense tonight.

Kansas City

Salvador Perez – Batters from both sides of the plate are in play against Danks, but he has really struggled against RH hitters as he has given up a .368 wOBA to righties this season. Perez has hit LH pitching well throughout his career and offers a great salary cap relief option at catcher.

Additional Plays: Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, Omar Infante

Cleveland at Houston

Cleveland					Houston
Zach McAllister		Vegas Moneyline			Collin McHugh		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		HOU (-120)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.298	0.851	0.369	19.00%	SP vs. Left	0.267	0.782	0.343	19.50%
SP vs. Right	0.272	0.743	0.327	17.20%	SP vs. Right	0.256	0.804	0.355	20.90%
Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R		Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Zach McAllister – McAllister has been the victim of some bad luck this season. He has one of the highest BABIP’s of all starting pitchers at .335. His xFIP (4.19) is almost 2 runs lower than his ERA (5.97). Basically, he’s a better pitcher than his popular pitching stats would suggest. He still owns a respectable K/9 of 7.3 and could make a nice contrarian play tonight against the Astros who are ranked 21st in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. The Astros also strike out at a 23.6% clip which gives his strikeout potential a small boost. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5300 FD, $7200 DD, $5000 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Collin McHugh – McHugh will draw the start for the Astros tonight. He has had a very impressive 2014 campaign and is looking to finish the season strong. On the year, he has a 2.79 ERA with a K/9 of 9.1. McHugh struggled with his command earlier in the season, but has only walked 1 batter in his last 4 starts combined which is great to see because it allows him to keep his pitch count lower and pitch deeper into games . His matchup against the Indians isn’t ideal, but McHugh has managed to hold LH hitters to a .276 wOBA this season. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Even though the Indians hit RH pitching well as a team, there aren’t any players that stand out as must plays against Collin McHugh who has held both LH and RH hitters under a .280 wOBA this season.

Houston

Dexter Fowler – McAllister has given up a .369 wOBA to LH hitters this season and Fowler should be able to take advantage of that as he is a switch hitter. Fowler is priced fairly across the industry and has been playing well with 6 hits over his last 4 games.

Additional Plays: Jason Castro

LA Dodgers at Colorado

LA Dodgers					Colorado
Roberto Hernandez		Vegas Moneyline			Christian Bergman		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		LAD (-140)			RIGHT		10.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.234	0.705	0.318	9.50%	SP vs. Left	0.250	0.669	0.298	14.10%
SP vs. Right	0.238	0.717	0.313	19.40%	SP vs. Right	0.337	1.006	0.428	6.30%
Batter Splits	LAD BvP		LAD vs R		Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Roberto Hernandez – Fausto Carmona Roberto Hernandez takes the mound for the Dodgers tonight in Coors Field. That’s basically all that you need to know. Rating = 2

Salaries: $6200 FD, $11550 DD, $6200 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Christian Bergman – Bergman’s ERA (4.89) is higher than his K/9 (3.9). That’s a red flag regardless of where the game is taking place, but when you throw in the fact that he is pitching in Coors Field, he may be the worst pitching option on the board. Rating = 1

Salaries: $5000 FD, $8750 DD, $4500 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Matt Kemp – The sample size is still relatively small, but Bergman has had some serious reverse splits in his major-league career. He has held LH hitters to a .298 wOBA while giving up a .428 wOBA to RH hitters. Kemp has 11 hits (7 XBH’s) over his last 10 games. He may be the top OF play tonight regardless of price.

Additional Plays: Dee Gordon, Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez, Carl Crawford

Colorado

Justin Morneau – Morneau is currently dealing with an intercostal injury, but may be back in the lineup tonight. If so, he may be the top 1B play on the board. Morneau has a great track record against Hernandez in his career. He’s gone 12/36 with 4 HR’s and 3 doubles off of Hernandez. Load your lineup with Rockies bats tonight.

Additional Plays: Charlie Blackmon, Corey Dickerson, Nolan Arenado (if he’s in the lineup)

San Francisco at Arizona

San Francisco					Arizona
Ryan Vogelsong		Vegas Moneyline			Wade Miley		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		SFG (-125)			LEFT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.281	0.794	0.349	19.60%	SP vs. Left	0.258	0.741	0.331	19.80%
SP vs. Right	0.220	0.674	0.300	18.70%	SP vs. Right	0.259	0.749	0.329	21.80%
Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SFG vs L		Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Ryan Vogelsong – Vogelsong faced the Diamondbacks in his last start and he pitched well. Despite giving up 5 walks, he didn’t allow a single earned run and he struck out 3 batters. That game was in the friendly confines of AT&T Park though. Tonight he’ll have to face them in a much more hitter-friendly environment in Chase Field. Vogelsong has struggled on the road this season with a 5.11 ERA with a .383 wOBA allowed. His road splits scare me enough to avoid him in all leagues. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $6600 FD, $13050 DD, $7000 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Wade Miley – Miley is one of those pitchers that just can’t seem to put it altogether. His numbers on the season all look pretty solid, but you get that queasy feeling in your stomach every time that you think about rostering him. On the season he has a 3.48 xFIP with a K/9 of 8.2, but again, you never know which Miley you are going to get. He draws a tough matchup against the Giants who have the best offense in baseball over the last 30 days. He’s in play for tournaments, but should be avoided in all cash games. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7200 FD, $12950 DD, $7700 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Buster Posey – Posey against a lefty that he has hit well in the past? In a hitter-friendly ballpark? Sign me up! Posey is 9/22 with 4 XBH’s off of Miley in his career and he sees a nice ballpark boost with this game being played in Chase Field.

Additional Plays: Hunter Pence, Angel Pagan

Arizona

Aaron Hill – Hill has been in and out of the lineup lately, but I would imagine that Kirk Gibson will give him the start tonight against Ryan Vogelsong considering Hill’s numbers against him in the past. Hill is 13/28 with 5 XBH’s off of Vogelsong in his career. He’s a cheap 2B with decent upside.

Additional Plays: Ender Inciarte, A.J. Pollock, Miguel Montero

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