MLB Grind Down: Saturday, September 20th Page Two

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2014-09-23 21:58:40

Boston at Baltimore

Boston					Baltimore
Rubby De La Rosa		Vegas Moneyline			Chris Tillman		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		BAL (-175)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.292	0.821	0.359	14.20%	SP vs. Left	0.236	0.643	0.289	17.40%
SP vs. Right	0.274	0.773	0.341	18.00%	SP vs. Right	0.226	0.689	0.305	16.70%
Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R		Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Rubby De La Rosa – De La Rosa was one of the few bright spots for the Red Sox early this season, but he has been brutal since the All-Star break, posting a 2-5 record, 5.22 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in eleven second half starts. Tonight he’ll be tasked with taking the mound at Camden Yards to take on an Orioles team ranked #6 in MLB in wOBA against right-handed pitching and who own, by far, the most HR’s in the league. He had very little success when they met back in June and I don’t see things changing for him tonight. Rating = 3.5

Salaries: $5700 FD, $9550 DD, $5000 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Chris Tillman- With a 12-5 record and a 3.29 ERA, the steady pitching of Chris Tillman is a major reason the Orioles cruised to an easy AL East victory. He sports a tremendous 5-0 record and 2.01 ERA since the All-Star Break and an impressive 2.54 ERA at Camden Yards this season. He has a nice matchup on tap against a Boston team who he cruised to an easy victory against last week and who rank #22 in MLB in wOBA against right-handed pitching (.300 wOBA). Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $7700 FD, $14450 DD, $9100 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $14000 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Boston

David Ortiz – Big Papi showed up in a big way last night, blasting a pair of homeruns and driving in three. He owns a .932 OPS since the All-Star break and is one of the only offensive weapons left in this Boston lineup.

Additional Plays: Daniel Nava

Baltimore

Alejandro De Aza – Lefties own a .359 wOBA off of Rubby De La Rosa and De Aza has been red hot at the plate. He added three more hits in last night’s game and is now hitting .352 during the month of September. For what it’s worth, he’s also 2 for 2 with a double and a triple in his brief history against De La Rosa.

Additional Plays: Nelson Cruz, Adam Jones, David Lough

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh

Milwaukee					Pittsburgh
Matt Garza		Vegas Moneyline			Edinson Volquez		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		PIT (-130)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.224	0.640	0.288	18.40%	SP vs. Left	0.232	0.738	0.326	16.70%
SP vs. Right	0.235	0.649	0.288	18.10%	SP vs. Right	0.238	0.661	0.297	16.20%
Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R		Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Matt Garza – Despite a few blowups along the way, Garza rather quietly owns a 3.00 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in nine starts since the beginning of July. With the Brewers still barely hanging on to their playoff hopes, he’ll need to keep things rolling if he wants to pitch in October. However, there are a number of things going against him tonight; 1) He owns a 2-4 record and 5.02 ERA in 12 road starts, 2) The Pirates are streaking and own MLB’s best wOBA since the All-Star Break (.337 wOBA), and 3) He has had very little success against Pittsburgh this season (6.55 ERA, 1.82 WHIP and just three strikeouts in two subpar starts). Rating = 4

Salaries: $7700 FD, $14950 DD, $8300 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $15300 FTD

• Edinson Volquez – Since being blasted for eight earned runs in just 2.1 innings of work by the Cincinnati Reds on June 18th, all Vasquez has done since is go 8-1 and post a 2.10 ERA in 15 starts. He owns a 2-1 record with a 2.88 ERA in four starts this season against the Brewers this season and should be fully motivated to push his division rival even closer to playoff elimination while keeping Pittsburgh’s hopes alive. With all that said, his strikeout rate (6.25 K’s/9) has dipped to a career low and his xFIP of 4.34 suggests that his current 3.27 ERA may be unsustainable. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7700 FD, $14700 DD, $8000 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $14150 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Scooter Gennett – With a righty on the mound for Pittsburgh (Volquez), Gennett becomes a very nice option at second base. He sports a .353 wOBA against right-handed pitching and has had plenty of success against Volquez in the past, going 5 for 10 with a homerun.

Additional Plays: Jonathan Lucroy

Pittsburgh

Russell Martin – Martin blasted his 11th homerun of the season last night to extend his hitting streak to 10 games. He owns a .384 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and is hitting .315 since the All-Star break. He has also thrived at PNC Park this season where he’s posted a .343 batting average and .940 OPS.

Additional Plays: Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker, Starling Marte, Ike Davis

Cleveland at Minnesota

Cleveland					Minnesota
T.J. House		Vegas Moneyline			Trevor May		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		CLE (-128)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.252	0.620	0.275	20.90%	SP vs. Left	0.297	0.869	0.386	21.30%
SP vs. Right	0.295	0.808	0.357	17.90%	SP vs. Right	0.338	0.892	0.394	20.00%
Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R		Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• T.J. House – If you haven’t paid close attention, there’s a good chance you don’t realize how good T.J. House has been lately. Since the beginning of August he owns a 2-1 record, 2.14 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 8.79 K’s/9 in seven starts. Much of his success can be attributable to his an excellent GB% of 60.1%. House will look for a repeat performance of when he dominated this Minnesota team last week (7 innings, 0 runs, 4 hits, 8 K’s). He hasn’t been terrific on the road this year, but it’s hard to ignore his recent success. Rating = 6

Salaries: $5700 FD, $11800 DD, $6800 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $9400 FTD

• Trevor May – As a rather highly touted prospect in the Twins farm system, expectations were rather high for Trevor May when he was called up earlier this season. Unfortunately for the young right-hander, things have not gone well as he now owns 7.71 ERA after seven career starts. With that said, he finally looks to be settling in and has now won each of his last three starts. His xFIP of 4.44 suggests that his fortunes will improve and after fanning 10 White Sox in his last outing, there is some renewed hope in the Twin Cities. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5500 FD, $8150 DD, $5700 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $8150 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Michael Brantley – Brantley is another guy who homered last night to extend his hitting streak to 10 games and he now has hits in 22 of his last 23 games. He sports a .399 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and will be looking to make life miserable for the inexperience and struggling Trevor May.

Additional Plays: Carlos Santana, Yan Gomes

Minnesota

Brian Dozier – Dozier has proven to handle the bat well against left-handed pitching as he owns a .278 batting average and .837 OPS against them during his young career. He’s tied for 3rd in MLB in runs scored, and with 20 homeruns on the season, he offers an upside that few 2B can match.

Additional Plays: Trevor Plouffe

Seattle at Houston

Seattle					Houston
Chris Young		Vegas Moneyline			Dallas Keuchel		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		HOU (-110)			LEFT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.249	0.781	0.343	13.60%	SP vs. Left	0.238	0.606	0.273	24.60%
SP vs. Right	0.186	0.596	0.262	18.40%	SP vs. Right	0.252	0.679	0.301	15.70%
Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs L		Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Chris Young – With Taijuan Walker getting a start last night, Chris Young will take the mound tonight in Houston with an extra day of rest. He sports an impressive 12-8 record and 3.33 ERA through 28 starts this season, but his 5.20 xFIP is still a looming red flag. Also working against him today is the fact that he’ll have to leave Safeco Field where he owns an uninspiring 4.40 ERA on the road this season. He does have a favorable matchup on tap against an Astros team who owns just a .297 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and who he’s pitched quiet well against in both prior meetings this year. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6500 FD, $8100 DD, $3500 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $13900 FTD

• Dallas Keuchel – Keuchel will take the mound for Houston tonight and will be looking to stay hot. He’s recorded quality starts in each of his last six starts and owns a 2.70 ERA in eleven starts since the All-Star break. His 63% groundball rate leads all qualified MLB starters and is a big reason for his breakout season that has him sitting with an 11-9 record and a 3.00 ERA after 28 starts. He’ll take on a very left-handed load Mariners lineup that ranks #29th in wOBA against left-handed pitching. He’s pitched extremely well against them on three different occasions already this season and I’m expecting another strong outing tonight. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7600 FD, $15700 DD, $8700 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $15750 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners struggle with left-handed pitching and I’m expecting a nice outing out of Kuechel, so i’ll be looking elsewhere. Robinson Cano is always worthy of GPP consideration, however.

Houston

Dexter Fowler – Left-handed batters own a .343 wOBA off of Chris Young this season and Fowler has swung the bat much better from the left side this season (.299 average). He’s had a pair of hits in back-to-back games and has an .814 OPS at Minute Maid Park.

Additional Plays: Jose Alltuve, Jon Singleton, Chris Carter

Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay

Chicago White Sox					Tampa Bay
Hector Noesi		Vegas Moneyline			Chris Archer		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		TBR (-170)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.240	0.725	0.318	15.60%	SP vs. Left	0.234	0.645	0.292	21.40%
SP vs. Right	0.301	0.837	0.368	19.10%	SP vs. Right	0.263	0.696	0.311	21.20%
Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CHW vs R		Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TBR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Hector Noesi – Noesi brings a rather pedestrian 8-10 record and 4.77 ERA into tonight’s game in Tampa, but he’s been slightly better since the All-Star break where he owns a 5-3 record and 4.19 ERA in the second half. His 27 homeruns allowed this season is the second most in all of MLB and a major source of his trouble, but luckily for him the Tampa Bay Rays rank just #25th in MLB in homeruns hit this season. Let’s be honest though; expecting anything more than an average start tonight would be a bit optimistic. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6600 FD, $10000 DD, $7300 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $10150 FTD

• Chris Archer – Archer has proved his impressive rookie season wasn’t a fluke by posting a 3.54 ERA and 8.17 K’s/9 through 30 starts this season. Tonight he’ll take on a White Sox team who knocked him around a bit in their only previous meeting this season but that also ranks #4 in MLB with a 22.4% K%. Archer hasn’t been nearly as sharp at Tropicana Field, where his ERA sits at 4.32 this season. He’s been prone to occasional blow-ups, but still makes a solid GPP target. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $8200 FD, $14800 DD, $8800 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $15800 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Conor Gillaspie – Gillaspie is a fine option anytime he’s facing a right-handed pitcher as he owns a .306 average and an .822 OPS against righties this season. He’s hitting .310 on the season away from U.S. Cellular Field and makes for a nice “punt” option at 3B.

Additional Plays:Jose Abreu, Adam Eaton

Tampa Bay

Evan Longoria – Longo looks to be heating back up, as he has hits in three straight games and has gone deep twice in the past week. Right handed batters own a .368 wOBA off of Noesi this season and Longoria has had success against him in the past.

Additional Plays:Matt Joyce, David DeJesus, Ben Zobrist

MLB Grind Down Page 2 – Page 3