MLB Grind Down: Saturday, September 27th Page Two

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2014-09-27 20:25:10

Tampa Bay at Cleveland

Tampa Bay					Cleveland
Alex Colome		Vegas Moneyline			Carlos Carrasco		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		CLE (-151)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left					SP vs. Left	0.195	0.521	0.237	24.60%
SP vs. Right					SP vs. Right	0.224	0.579	0.258	27.40%
Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TBR vs R		Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Alex Colome – Colome was impressive in his last start, tossing 6.2 shutout innings against the New York Yankees two weeks ago. After being suspended for 50 games to start the season, he posted a 7-6 record, 3.77 ERA and 7.64 K’s/9 at AAA this season. However, he struggled with left-handed batters (.281 average against him at AAA) and will be tasked with facing a left-handed heavy Cleveland team that owns a .320 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. He’s a viable option as a GPP flier, but there are better choices on the board for cash games. Rating = 3.5

Salaries: $5700 FD, $8150 DD, $5000 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Carlos Carrasco – Carrasco has been a pleasant surprise for the Indians this season, as he owns an impressive 2.64 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 9.27 K’s/9 over 126.1 innings this season. He’s been even better down the stretch, posting a 6-3 record with a 1.77 ERA in nine second half starts. He’s armed with a fastball that can reach the upper 90’s and will take on a Tampa Bay Rays team that owns just a .305 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. He’s a fine option in all formats. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $9100 FD, $14900 DD, $9800 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $8850 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Carlos Carrasco has been filthy lately and has held lefties and righties to a .237 wOBA and a .258 wOBA respectively. You can safely avoid the Rays bats today.

Cleveland

Michael Brantley – Brantley had his 15 game hitting streak snapped last night, but he’s still hitting .423 during the month of September. He owns a .405 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and is an excellent option today against the unproven Alex Colome.

Additional Plays: Jason Kipnis, Michael Bourn, Lonnie Chisenhall

Atlanta at Philadelphia

Atlanta					Philadelphia
Aaron Harang		Vegas Moneyline			A.J. Burnett		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		PHI (-111)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.281	0.735	0.326	17.50%	SP vs. Left	0.243	0.785	0.350	19.00%
SP vs. Right	0.252	0.701	0.311	19.10%	SP vs. Right	0.256	0.707	0.314	21.20%
Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R		Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Aaron Harang – All-in-all, Harang has put together a pretty nice season for the Braves, posting a 3.60 ERA in 32 starts. He was roughed up by Miami to open September, but been terrific in each of his last three starts since. He’ll take on a Phillies team that owns just a .293 wOBA against right-handed pitching (27th in MLB) but active Phillies hitters own a .383 cummalitve batting average (64 for 167) off of Harang during their careers. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7000 FD, $14450 DD, $7000 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $13900 FTD

• A.J. Burnett – Burnett appears to be running out of gas and has been rather dreadful down the stretch. The Phillies have lost 11 of his 13 starts since the All-Star break and he sports a robust 5.85 ERA and 1.57 WHIP during that span. His command has always been suspect, but with his velocity on the decline, he can no longer pitch himself out of trouble. While he has been much better at Citizens Bank Park this season (3.56 home ERA) and the Braves own a 22.6 K%, I’ll be looking elsewhere. Rating = 3.5

Salaries: $7000 FD, $14050 DD, $7800 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $14350 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Freddie Freeman – He’s had a slow September, but Freeman finally broke out with a pair of hits last night and brings a .387 wOBA against right-handed pitching into tonight’s matchup against a struggling A.J. Burnett. Lefties have posted a .350 wOBA off of Burnett this season and Freeman has had some success off of him in the past. With Burnett’s command M.I.A., Freeman (and his 12.7 BB%) is one of the safer options at 1B today.

Additional Plays: Jason Heyward, Justin Upton

Philadelphia

If you’re a fan of BvsP than you’ll love plenty of Philly hitters today against Aaron Harang. Just take your pick; Marlon Byrd (10 for 23), Domonic Brown (5 for 11), Grady Sizemore (13 for 27), Chase Utley (13 for 32)

Minnesota at Detroit

Minnesota					Detroit
Ricky Nolasco		Vegas Moneyline			Kyle Lobstein		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		DET (-185)			LEFT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.330	0.910	0.397	13.30%	SP vs. Left	0.200	0.598	0.261	22.70%
SP vs. Right	0.299	0.828	0.360	19.40%	SP vs. Right	0.225	0.683	0.301	13.40%
Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs L		Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Ricky Nolasco – Nolasco will take the mound at Comerica Park sporting an ugly 5-12 record and 5.47 ERA and he was blasted in his last start by the Arizona Diamondbacks. He’s been dreadful on the road this season, where he owns a 2-6 record and a 6.54 ERA in 13 starts away from Target Field. He’ll take on a Tigers team that ranks fifth in MLB in wOBA against right-handed pitching, but he’s actually pitched quite well against them in two prior meetings this season (2.03 ERA over 13.1 innings). His xFIP of 3.99 suggests that he’s been rather unlucky this season, but I don’t trust him one bit and will be staying away. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5300 FD, $9150 DD, $5600 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $9250 FTD

• Kyle Lobstein – Lobstein has done a very nice job for Detroit as their 5th starter down the stretch, posting a solid 3.38 ERA and 1.15 WHIP through 34.2 innings. He enters tonight’s game fresh off the best start of his young career where he held the White Sox to just two runs on five hits over seven innings. With that all said, soft-tossing lefties are rarely inspiring fantasy options and his current .243 BABIP is certainly unsustainable. With just 5.97 K’s/9, he’s really only viable as a secondary option on multi-pitcher sites if cheap. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6000 FD, $8750 DD, $6800 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

• Brian Dozier – Dozier owns an .855 OPS against left-handed pitching during his career and looks to be heating up as the year comes to an end for the Twins. He added three hits last night (and smacked his 22nd homerun of the season) and is now hitting .409 over the last week.

Additional Plays: Danny Santana

Detroit

Ian Kinsler – Ricky Nolasco has been dreadful to both right and left-handed hitters this season and Kinsler has had his number in the past, going 5 for 9 with three doubles. The Tigers are in position to put up a few crooked numbers and, as their leadoff man, Kinsler is my favorite option today at 2B.

Additional Plays: Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez, Torii Hunter, Alex Avila

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee

Chicago Cubs					Milwaukee
Tsuyoshi Wada		Vegas Moneyline			Wily Peralta		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		MIL (-145)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.163	0.405	0.195	22.60%	SP vs. Left	0.300	0.818	0.360	17.00%
SP vs. Right	0.260	0.775	0.338	19.30%	SP vs. Right	0.218	0.621	0.284	17.70%
Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs R		Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Tsuyoshi Wada – With a 4-3 record and 3.22 ERA in his brief MLB career, it’s safe to say that Wada has been a bright spot for the Cubbies this season. He’ll head to Miller Park to take on a Milwaukee lineup that is very dangerous against left-handed pitching in search of the first road win of his career. He did defeat the Brewers when they met last month at Wrigley Field, allowing just two runs on five hits over 6.2 innings of work. He’s an exceptable option to fill in your rotation on multi-pitcher sites if he’s cheap, but I’m not a fan of inexperienced lefties inside Miller Park and therefore will be avoiding Wada today. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6300 FD, $11750 DD, $7400 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $13800 FTD

• Wily Peralta – After a couple of disasterous starts to close out the month of August, Peralta has bounced back nicely, posting a 2.36 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in four September starts. He’ll look to take advantage of a favorable matchup against a Cubs team that owns just a .296 wOBA against right-handed pitching, but he hasn’t had much luck against them as has taken a loss in all three prior starts agains them this season. The Cubs do own a 23.7% K% against right-handed pitching (2nd worst in MLB) which does help raise his ceiling here. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7200 FD, $13750 DD, $7400 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $13900 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Anthony Rizzo – Even the BvsP adverse will have a hard time ignoring the fact that Rizzo is 9 for 21 with five homeruns off of Peralta in his career. He owns a .384 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and owns a 1.027 OPS during the month of September.

Additional Plays: Jorge Soler, Javier Baez, Chris Coghlan

Milwaukee

• Aramis Ramirez – With Tsuyoshi Wada (a lefty) on the mound for the Cubs, A-Ram becomes a very nice option at 3B. He sports a .337 average and 1.054 OPS this season versus left-handed pitching and brings a four game hitting streak into tonight’s game. Right-handed hitters own a .338 wOBA off of Wada this year and Ramirez should once again find himself right in the heart of this dangerous Milwaukee batting order.

Additional Plays: Khris Davis, Jonathon Lucroy, Carlos Gomez, Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks

Kansas City at Chicago White Sox

Kansas City					Chicago White Sox
Danny Duffy		Vegas Moneyline			John Danks		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		KCR (-171)			LEFT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.137	0.384	0.183	18.30%	SP vs. Left	0.256	0.727	0.324	11.10%
SP vs. Right	0.220	0.646	0.290	19.30%	SP vs. Right	0.272	0.814	0.356	16.50%
Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KCR vs L		Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CHW vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Danny Duffy – Duffy has been tremendous down the stretch for the Royals, posting a 4-2 record with a 1.72 ERA since the All-Star break. He threw seven innings of shutout ball in his only other meeting with the White Sox. However, despite his 1.72 second half ERA, his xFIP over that stretch sits at 4.49 which indicates he’s potentially been very lucky. He’s posted an excellent 2.03 ERA on the road but with the Rotals clinching a playoff birth last night, there’s no guarantee that Duffy will get a full workload tonight and that hurts his rating here quite a bit. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $7200 FD, $11900 DD, $7500 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $12050 FTD

• John Danks – With back-to-back strong starts, Danks will look to keep things rolling tonight against the Kansas City Royals. He’s made easy work of the Royals in their previous two meetings this season, allowing just three runs on seven hits (eight walks) over 13 innings of work. However, Danks owns an unsightly 2-5 record and 6.31 ERA since the All-Star break and the strikeout adverse Royals own a .315 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Rating = 3.5

Salaries: $6200 FD, $10850 DD, $6300 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $10350 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Alcides Escobar – Escobar brings a seven game hitting streak into tonight’s matchup that has seen him go 14 for 33. He’s 0 for 15 during his career against Danks (which is a bit of a red flag) but right handers have posted a .356 wOBA off of Danks this season. Escobar should once again be hitting leadoff for the Royals and is a nice value option at SS.

Additional Plays: Lorenzo Cain, Billy Butler

Chicago White Sox

Avisail Garcia – Garcia has somewhat quietly smashed left-handed pitching this season, posting a .429 wOBA against southpaws.

Additional Plays: Jose Abreu, Alexei Ramirez

MLB Grind Down Page 2 – Page 3