MLB Grind Down: Thursday, August 21st Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-08-21 21:38:47

LA Angels at Boston

LA Angels					Boston
Matt Shoemaker		Vegas Moneyline			Rubby De La Rosa		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		LAA (-127)			RIGHT		9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.292	0.812	0.353	20.40%	SP vs. Left	0.277	0.824	0.359	14.30%
SP vs. Right	0.220	0.649	0.286	26.90%	SP vs. Right	0.256	0.761	0.335	19.40%
Batter Splits	LAA BvP		LAA vs R		Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Matt Shoemaker – Shoemaker has pitched pretty well this season. He owns a 3.84 ERA with a K.9 of 8.7. He’s a small favorite tonight against the Red Sox, but this game features the highest run total of the night. I’ll likely be avoiding both starters and will be targeting the hitters in this one. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7400 FD, $13650 DD, $6600 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $13650 FTD

• Rubby De La Rosa – De La Rosa is coming off of a rough outing against the Astros in which he gave up 6 earned runs. On the season he has a 3.79 ERA with a K/9 of 6.3. He gives up quite a few walks (3.3 per 9) as well as HR’s (1.1 per 9). He can safely be avoided tonight against the Angels who have one of the most potent offenses in baseball. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6400 FD, $11100 DD, $5800 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Kole Calhoun – Calhoun has been swinging a hot bat and has been mashing RH pitching all season. He draws a terrific matchup tonight against De La Rosa who has given up a .359 wOBA to LH hitters this season.

Additional Plays: Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar

Boston

David Ortiz – Shoemaker has given up a .353 wOBA to LH hitters this season and Ortiz has been swinging a hot bat with 16 hits over his last 9 games.

Additional Plays: Brock Holt, Yoenis Cespedes

San Francisco at Chicago Cubs

San Francisco					Chicago Cubs
Madison Bumgarner		Vegas Moneyline			Travis Wood		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		SFG (-150)			LEFT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.222	0.557	0.246	31.30%	SP vs. Left	0.215	0.605	0.268	21.60%
SP vs. Right	0.246	0.692	0.305	22.20%	SP vs. Right	0.289	0.818	0.365	17.40%
Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SFG vs L		Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Madison Bumgarner – This will be the 2nd game of the doubleheader between the Giants and the Cubs. Bumgarner has had some interesting home/away splits this season. For whatever reason, he’s pitched considerably better on the road. He owns a 1.72 ERA away from home while averaging nearly a strikeout per inning. I still think Kershaw is the top pitching play tonight, but Bumgarner makes a terrific alternative if you want to differentiate your lineups. The Cubs have struck out at a 25% clip vs. southpaws this season. Rating = 8.5

Salaries: $9200 FD, $19950 DD, $8600 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $19950 FTD

• Travis Wood – Wood has had a rough 2014 campaign. His ERA and walk-rate are both way up from last season, while his K-rate has dropped. That’s not a great combination for pitchers. While the Giants aren’t particularly great against LH pitching, they are a very capable offense and Wood will likely see little to no run support with Bumgarner pitching opposite him. He can be used as a contrarian play in a GPP, but that’s about it. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6300 FD, $9450 DD, $5900 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $9450 FTD

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Buster Posey – This pick is pretty simple. Wood has given up a .365 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate and Posey has mashed LH pitching to the tune of a .346 wOBA this season.

Additional Plays: Michael Morse, Pablo Sandoval

Chicago Cubs

Avoid all Cubs against Bumgarner tonight as he has held both LH and RH hitters under a .305 wOBA this season.

Additional Plays:

San Diego at LA Dodgers

San Diego					LA Dodgers
Tyson Ross		Vegas Moneyline			Clayton Kershaw		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		LAD (-171)			LEFT		6.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.215	0.621	0.283	22.90%	SP vs. Left	0.162	0.368	0.168	31.40%
SP vs. Right	0.232	0.639	0.288	24.10%	SP vs. Right	0.205	0.569	0.252	32.10%
Batter Splits	SDP BvP		SDP vs L		Batter Splits	LAD BvP		LAD vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Tyson Ross – Ross has really pitched well this season. He owns a 2.70 ERA with a K/9 of 8.8. That said, I’m not sure that I will be targeting him tonight. Not only does he struggle away from Petco, but he draws a tough matchup against the Dodgers who are ranked 6th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. It also doesn’t help that Kershaw is pitching opposite him. Rating = 6

Salaries: $8500 FD, $17500 DD, $9400 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $17500 FTD

• Clayton Kershaw – With such a small slate of games, Kershaw is a no-brainer in cash games tonight. Just pay the expensive price tag and then pick your hitters with the salary that you have left. GPP’s are another story, but for cash games there’s no reason to look elsewhere on single pitcher sites. Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball and he’s facing a historically bad offense at the pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. I see his floor as being 7 innings, 7 strikeouts, and a win. Rating = 10

Salaries: $12000 FD, $21750 DD, $14400 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $21750 FTD

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Avoid all Padres tonight against Kershaw.

LA Dodgers

Dee Gordon – This isn’t an ideal matchup for the Dodgers, but with such a small slate, you are going to have to target a few batters with less than perfect matchups. Gordon is still a but under-priced on FD and his stolen base potential puts him in play on the other sites. If he gets on base, look for him to be aggressive.

Additional Plays: Adrian Gonzalez, Yasiel Puig