MLB Grind Down: Thursday, August 28th Page Two
Texas at Houston
| Texas | Houston | ||||||||
| Nick Tepesch | Vegas Moneyline | Collin McHugh | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | HOU (-144) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.248 | 0.750 | 0.330 | 11.60% | SP vs. Left | 0.230 | 0.655 | 0.294 | 22.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.279 | 0.800 | 0.353 | 12.00% | SP vs. Right | 0.187 | 0.595 | 0.268 | 30.20% |
| Batter Splits | TEX BvP  | TEX vs R | Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Nick Tepesch – Tepesch is having a pretty pedestrian season. He owns a 4.45 ERA with a K/9 of 4.45 as well. The strikeouts just haven’t been there this season which really limits his upside in daily fantasy. While he is facing a strikeout happy Astros offense, he’s not a recommended fantasy play tonight. He has given up a .330+ wOBA to batters from both sides of the plate this season. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5300 FD, $9900 DD, $5200 DK, $NA FF, $13600 SS, $9900 FTD
- Collin McHugh – McHugh is one of the top pitching options on the board tonight. He has had a terrific season with a 3.02 ERA (3.25 xFIP) and a K/9 of 9.5. He does drive up the count often and walks just over 3 batters per 9 innings, but the strikeouts more than make up for it. He doesn’t give up many HR’s (0.83 per 9 innings) and he draws a terrific matchup against the Rangers who are ranked 24th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. Rating = 8.5
Salaries: $7700 FD, $17300 DD, $9000 DK, $ FF, $26800 SS, $17300 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Texas
There aren’t any plays that stand out on the Rangers tonight. Collin McHugh has held both LH and RH hitters under a .295 wOBA this season.
Houston
Jose Altuve – Tepesch really struggled with LH hitters at the start, but over the course of the season he has actually proved to be a reverse splits pitcher. He is giving up a .353 wOBA to RH hitters and Altuve’s stolen base potential goes up with a righty on the mound. Altuve stole 2 bases last night and will likely be aggressive on the base pads again tonight.
Additional Plays: Dexter Fowler, Chris Carter
Minnesota at Kansas City
| Minnesota | Kansas City | ||||||||
| Tommy Milone | Vegas Moneyline | Jeremy Guthrie | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | KCR (-154) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.259 | 0.764 | 0.336 | 11.50% | SP vs. Left | 0.293 | 0.831 | 0.366 | 15.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.261 | 0.742 | 0.327 | 15.70% | SP vs. Right | 0.233 | 0.611 | 0.276 | 14.60% |
| Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KCR vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Tommy Milone – Over his last 3 starts, Milone has given up 11 earned runs while only striking out 9 batters in less than 12 innings of work. He’s trending in the wrong direction and has to face a Royals offense that has been one of the best in baseball over the last 30 days. His strikeout potential is also limited as the Royals strike out fewer times than any team in baseball. I’m going to pass on Milone and will actually be targeting a few hitters against him. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6000 FD, $10000 DD, $6400 DK, $NA FF, $15000 SS, $10000 FTD
- Jeremy Guthrie – Guthrie is one of those pitchers that is rarely targeted in daily fantasy baseball. He has limited upside with his K/9 of 5.8 and he rarely has those dominant outings that we like to see. He owns a 4.32 ERA (4.38 xFIP) on the season while producing a 42% ground ball rate. His biggest problem is that he struggles to get LH hitters out. He may pick up a win tonight, but will likely give up a couple earned runs in the process. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6400 FD, $10800 DD, $6800 DK, $ FF, $19000 SS, $10800 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
Joe Mauer – Mauer is my top wOBA play of the day in my MLB First Look column. Guthrie has given up a .366 wOBA to LH hitters this season and Mauer has hit RH pitching well with a .343 wOBA. Mauer also has 3 multi-hit games in his last 9.
Additional Plays: Danny Santana, Oswaldo Arcia
Kansas City
Billy Butler – Milone hasn’t been great against RH hitters this season. This is a solid matchup for Butler as he is batting .322 against southpaws this season with a .370 wOBA. He should get plenty of RBI opportunities in the clean-up spot tonight.
Additional Plays: Salvador Perez, Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain
Cleveland at Chicago White Sox
| Cleveland | Chicago White Sox | ||||||||
| Carlos Carrasco | Vegas Moneyline | John Danks | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | CLE (-142) | LEFT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.227 | 0.605 | 0.272 | 22.40% | SP vs. Left | 0.255 | 0.726 | 0.323 | 9.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.199 | 0.559 | 0.253 | 25.60% | SP vs. Right | 0.279 | 0.846 | 0.369 | 16.40% |
| Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs L | Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CHW vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Carlos Carrasco – Carrasco will be making his 8th start of the season. He’s pitched well in 2014 with a 3.14 ERA and a K/9 of 8.6. A lot of that work was out of the bullpen though and I expect his K/9 to go down a bit as he makes a few more starts. While I don’t love his matchup against the White Sox (ranked 10th in wOBA vs. RH pitching), I do expect him to see plenty of run support with Danks on the mound. He’s a sneaky play on both FD and DK, but is probably best suited as a tournament play. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $5700 FD, $8450 DD, $6600 DK, $NA FF, $13600 SS, $12850 FTD
- John Danks – Danks is having another rough season. Through 26 starts, he has posted a 4.96 ERA (4.79 xFIP) with a K/9 of only 5.9. He’s walking 3.5 batters per 9 innings and giving up 1.37 HR’s per 9 innings. Both are big red flags. Even though the Indians haven’t hit LH pitching well as a team this season, Danks is a sizable underdog at home for a reason. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5600 FD, $10750 DD, $4800 DK, $ FF, $13600 SS, $10750 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Cleveland
Carlos Santana – All of the RH bats in this Indians lineup are in play tonight. Danks has given up a .369 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate. Santana doesn’t hit for a high average vs. lefties (.214), but 29 of his 63 hits off of lefties have gone for extra bases.
Additional Plays: Jose Ramirez, Mike Aviles, Zach Walters
Chicago White Sox
Jose Abreu – Carrasco has held both LH and RH hitters under a .275 wOBA this season, but he hasn’t faced many batters as talented as Abreu. Not only does Abreu have terrific power vs. RH pitching this season (21 HR’s), but he also hits for a high average (.304). A matchup against Carrasco does not scare me in the slightest.
Additional Plays: Adam Eaton
Oakland at LA Angels
| Oakland | LA Angels | ||||||||
| Sonny Gray | Vegas Moneyline | C.J. Wilson | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | OAK (-116) | LEFT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.221 | 0.624 | 0.283 | 21.60% | SP vs. Left | 0.218 | 0.611 | 0.280 | 21.90% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.240 | 0.623 | 0.280 | 18.30% | SP vs. Right | 0.266 | 0.761 | 0.340 | 19.90% |
| Batter Splits | OAK BvP | OAK vs L | Batter Splits | LAA BvP | LAA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Sonny Gray – Gray is coming off of a very strong start against this same Angels team. He pitched 8 and 1/3 innings while giving up 3 earned runs and striking out 5 batters. That game was at home though and this time he will have to face them on the road. Gray has been struggling a bit in the month of August with a 4.50 ERA. I’m just not sure that I want to pay for him in a less than favorable matchup. Rating = 6
Salaries: $8600 FD, $17600 DD, $8600 DK, $NA FF, $22400 SS, $17600 FTD
- C.J. Wilson – Wilson hasn’t pitched well since coming back from injury. The biggest red flag is his strikeouts. In his last 5 starts, he has only struck out 17 batters. Until he puts together some better fantasy outings, he can safely be avoided in all leagues. Rating = 4
Salaries: $7100 FD, $12900 DD, $6800 DK, $ FF, $18400 SS, $12900 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Oakland
Josh Donaldson – Donaldson is one of the best hitters in baseball when he’s facing a lefty. He has a .452 wOBA against LH pitching and 22 of his 34 hits have gone for extra bases. Target him tonight against a struggling Wilson.
Additional Plays: Derek Norris, Coco Crisp
LA Angels
Mike Trout – Trout hit another HR last night. He’s been red hot with 4 multi-hit games in his last 6. He’s always in play regardless of who is on the mound and he has already taken Gray deep twice in only 8 career at bats against him.
Additional Plays: Kole Calhoun, Josh Hamilton