MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 18th Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-02-05 18:55:18

Milwaukee at St. Louis

Milwaukee					St. Louis
Kyle Lohse		Vegas Moneyline			Shelby Miller		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		STL (-140)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.248	0.737	0.323	15.40%	SP vs. Left	0.232	0.712	0.315	15.50%
SP vs. Right	0.250	0.689	0.305	19.30%	SP vs. Right	0.231	0.688	0.306	16.40%
Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R		Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Kyle Lohse – Lohse is typically one of the more consistent pitchers in the National League, but he has had a rough couple of months. Since the start of August, he has given up an ERA close to 7.00 while giving up close to a .400 wOBA to his opponents. That’s a huge red flag and considering how important this game is to both teams, the nerves likely won’t help the situation. The Cardinals offense has been locked in over the last 6 weeks and Lohse is a risky fantasy option tonight. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6900 FD, $13900 DD, $6500 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Shelby Miller – Miller hasn’t had the sophomore season that he was hoping for, but he may be peaking at the right time. In his 3 September starts, he has posted a 0.45 ERA while holding his opponents to a .154 batting average. He will have the platoon advantage over a RH-heavy Brewers lineup and is the preferred play of the two starters in this game. He’s not the top option, but can be targeted as a #2 starter on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 6

Salaries: $6600 FD, $12900 DD, $7300 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Gerardo Parra – Parra has been a solid value play in the OF. He has scored 2+ FP’s on DraftKings in 7 straight games and is still cheap on both FD and DK. Parra hits RH pitching well and draws a nice matchup against Miller who has given up a much higher wOBA to LH hitters than he has to RH hitters.

Additional Plays: Scooter Gennett

St. Louis

Yadier Molina – Molina is a terrific value play at catcher tonight. His salary is depressed across the industry and he has had some great success off of Kyle Lohse in the past. Molina is 11/20 with 3 HR’s and 3 doubles off of Lohse in his career.

Additional Plays: Matt Carpenter, Matt Holliday, Matt Adams

Arizona at Colorado

Arizona					Colorado
Vidal Nuno		Vegas Moneyline			Yohan Flande		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		COL (-120)			LEFT		10.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.196	0.606	0.274	21.60%	SP vs. Left	0.161	0.514	0.237	16.10%
SP vs. Right	0.266	0.781	0.341	17.30%	SP vs. Right	0.301	0.827	0.357	12.00%
Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs L		Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Vidal Nuno – Nothing against Nuno, but I will not be targeting him tonight against the Rockies in Coors Field. The total for this game is set at 10.5 runs which is by far the highest of the night. Rating = 2

Salaries: $6200 FD, $12600 DD, $6000 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Yohan Flande – The same goes for Flande. Even though the Diamondbacks offense has really sputtered down the stretch, he should be avoided tonight in Coors Field. Rating = 2

Salaries: $5100 FD, $8850 DD, $4500 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

A.J. Pollock – Both teams in Coors Field are typically popular targets in the DFS world, but people may overlook Pollock tonight and I’m hoping that they do. Pollock has been terrific against LH pitching this season with a .304 batting average and a .434 wOBA. He also sees that nice ballpark boost in Coors.

Additional Plays: Mark Trumbo, Aaron Hill, Ender Inciarte

Colorado

Drew Stubbs – The Rockies may be the top team to stack tonight. Basically everyone that is in the lineup is going to be in play tonight. Stubbs gets the nod as the featured play thanks to his terrific numbers against LH pitching this season. He’s batting .323 with a .409 wOBA vs. southpaws.

Additional Plays: Josh Rutledge, Michael Cuddyer, Charlie Blackmon, Wilin Rosario

Seattle at LA Angels

Seattle					LA Angels
Felix Hernandez		Vegas Moneyline			Jered Weaver		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		SEA (-140)			RIGHT		6.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.202	0.518	0.233	24.40%	SP vs. Left	0.251	0.705	0.314	19.60%
SP vs. Right	0.198	0.598	0.264	29.60%	SP vs. Right	0.205	0.623	0.278	17.50%
Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs R		Batter Splits	LAA BvP		LAA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Felix Hernandez – King Felix takes the mound tonight and while he does have a tough matchup against the Angels, he is right there with Zack Greinke as the top pitcher of the night. Felix has a 2.14 ERA on the season with a K/9 of 9.25. He is producing a 55% ground ball rate with a career low walk rate of only 1.7 batters per 9 innings. Felix is also producing a career high 11.6% swinging strike rate which is impressive when you consider how many great seasons he has under his belt. Even though the matchup is tough on paper, I’ll take great pitching over good hitting in this one. Rating = 9

Salaries: $10700 FD, $20900 DD, $11800 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Jered Weaver – When it comes to Weaver, the first question that you have to ask is if he is pitching at home or if he is pitching on the road. Weaver owns a 2.60 ERA at home with a K/9 of 7.9 at home compared to a 4.62 ERA with a K/9 of 6.0 on the road. Luckily, he is pitching at home tonight. The majority of DFS players will be on the Felix side of this matchup which makes Weaver a solid tournament play tonight. Rating = 6

Salaries: $8100 FD, $16000 DD, $8000 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Seattle / L.A. Angels

This game has the lowest total of the night. It’s set at only 6.0 runs and both of these pitchers are primed for good outings. With a game in Coors Field, you don’t need to waste any roster spots on either of these offenses.

Philadelphia at San Diego

Philadelphia					San Diego
Kyle Kendrick		Vegas Moneyline			Robbie Erlin		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		SDP (-126)			LEFT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.282	0.825	0.359	16.50%	SP vs. Left	0.232	0.701	0.302	18.30%
SP vs. Right	0.259	0.719	0.319	12.80%	SP vs. Right	0.301	0.817	0.355	18.50%
Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs L		Batter Splits	SDP BvP		SDP vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Kyle Kendrick – This game will be played in the best ballpark for pitchers, but neither starter looks like a safe fantasy option tonight. Kendrick owns an average ERA (4.72), an average K/9 (5.6), and an average ground ball rate (44%). While I do love the ballpark boost in Petco, I’m just not sold on Kendrick as a reliable fantasy option tonight. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6400 FD, $11750 DD, $6500 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Robbie Erlin – Erlin is the preferred option of the two starters in this game. He has better strikeout potential and arguably a better matchup as the Phillies offense has been nowhere to be found in recent weeks. Erlin is a small favorite here and he has pitched well at home with a career 2.50 ERA in Petco. Rating = 6

Salaries: $5400 FD, $10950 DD, $6600 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

At this point in the season, I will be avoiding all Phillies hitters. Darin Ruf could be an interesting play at minimum salary, but only if you need to save a ton of salary cap space.

San Diego

Cory Spangenberg – In addition to one of the best last names in baseball, Spangenberg draws a favorable matchup against Kyle Kendrick who has given up a .359 wOBA to LH hitters. Spangenberg hit leadoff in the Padres last matchup against a righty and makes a solid value play if he’s batting leadoff again tonight.

Additional Plays: Yangervis Solarte, Yasmani Grandal