MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 25th Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-09-25 16:30:14

Minnesota at Detroit

Minnesota					Detroit
Trevor May		Vegas Moneyline			Max Scherzer		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		DET (-3)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.291	0.847	0.377	19.60%	SP vs. Left	0.243	0.693	0.308	24.70%
SP vs. Right	0.356	0.970	0.423	19.60%	SP vs. Right	0.224	0.621	0.275	32.20%
Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs R		Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Trevor May – May has not pitched well at the major-league level this season. He owns an ERA of 8.39 while walking over 4 batters per 9 innings. Tonight he faces one of the best offenses in baseball and he has to face them in their home ballpark. He’s the biggest underdog on the board for a reason. Rating = 2

Salaries: $5500 FD, $NA DD, $5700 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Max Scherzer – Scherzer and the Tigers are still trying to fight off the Royals for the AL Central Division title. He should not be limited in tonight’s matchup against the Twins. On the season Scherzer is sporting a 3.19 ERA (3.11 xFIP) with an impressive strikeout rate of 10.2 batters per 9 innings. He is a -300 favorite and should be one of, if not the top fantasy pitcher of the night. Rating = 9

Salaries: $10700 FD, $ DD, $12200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Avoid all Twins tonight against Max Scherzer who has held batters from both sides of the plate under a .310 wOBA.

Detroit

J.D. Martinez – You really can’t go wrong with any of the Tigers in your lineups tonight. Martinez gets the edge as the top play because he is a bit cheaper than both Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez. Trevor May has given up a .423 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate and Martinez should have ample opportunities to drive in runs.

Additional Plays: Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Ian Kinsler, Torii Hunter

Tampa Bay at Boston

Tampa Bay					Boston
Jeremy Hellickson		Vegas Moneyline			Allen Webster		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		TBR (-124)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.210	0.585	0.262	22.50%	SP vs. Left	0.258	0.760	0.349	10.90%
SP vs. Right	0.324	0.908	0.398	16.00%	SP vs. Right	0.260	0.756	0.331	16.20%
Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TBR vs R		Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jeremy Hellickson – Hellickson has given up at least 2 earned runs in each of his last 7 starts. He has a respectable K/9 of 7.6, but is a fly ball pitcher that is facing a capable Red Sox offense in the hitter-friendly Fenway Park. He’s a risky option tonight that should be avoided in all leagues. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $5200 FD, $10550 DD, $7400 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Allen Webster – Webster’s ERA (5.54) is higher than his K/9 (5.4). That’s a huge red flag in daily fantasy baseball. It also doesn’t help that he has had command issues with 4.7 walks per 9 innings. He’s one of the worst starters on the schedule tonight and can safely be avoided in all leagues. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5500 FD, $8850 DD, $5100 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Evan Longoria – Longoria draws a favorable matchup against Allen Webster who has given up a .331 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate. Longoria has had a good month of September and should be able to add to his RBI total tonight.

Additional Plays: Ben Zobrist, Nick Franklin

Boston

Yoenis Cespedes – Jeremy Hellickson has had some serious reverse splits this season. He has given up a .398 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate. Cespedes is riding a 4-game hitting streak in which he has accumulated 6 hits, 3 runs, and 2 RBI’s.

Additional Plays: Mookie Betts

Pittsburgh at Atlanta

Pittsburgh					Atlanta
Edinson Volquez		Vegas Moneyline			David Hale		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		PIT (-150)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.234	0.745	0.328	16.30%	SP vs. Left	0.274	0.714	0.317	10.10%
SP vs. Right	0.230	0.640	0.288	16.80%	SP vs. Right	0.249	0.684	0.302	11.90%
Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs R		Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Edinson Volquez – The Pirates can still catch the Cardinals, but they are going to need some help with a few losses. That said, they should roll out their every day starters tonight against the Braves. While Volquez isn’t a dominant pitcher, he’s been a serviceable starter in both the MLB and in daily fantasy. He owns a 3.15 ERA (4.31 xFIP) with a K/9 of 6.3. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Braves who are ranked 29th in wOBA against right-hand pitching this season. He’s not a bad play at his price point. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7800 FD, $15100 DD, $8000 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• David Hale – Hale will come out of the bullpen to make the start tonight. He hasn’t thrown more than 60 pitches in over a month and will likely be on a pitch count tonight. He also has one of the toughest matchups on the board as the Pirates are ranked 3rd in wOBA against right-hand pitching. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5100 FD, $8650 DD, $5500 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Andrew McCutchen – Cutch is trying to make a late-season push for the National League MVP. He homered in last night’s game and now has a wOBA of .459 in the month of September. Pay up for Cutch tonight against David Hale.

Additional Plays: Josh Harrison

Atlanta

Justin Upton – Is it just me or does Justin Upton have great BvP stats against a ton of different pitchers. In 14 career at-bats against Edison Volquez, Upton has 8 hits including 4 doubles. Upton homered in last night’s game and has been terrific at home all season long.

Additional Plays: Freddie Freeman

Oakland at Texas

Oakland					Texas
Jason Hammel		Vegas Moneyline			Colby Lewis		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		OAK (-145)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.234	0.692	0.306	20.10%	SP vs. Left	0.323	0.872	0.379	15.50%
SP vs. Right	0.232	0.681	0.301	23.80%	SP vs. Right	0.276	0.818	0.354	19.40%
Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs R		Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jason Hammel – Hammel has been much better since the start of August. He has an ERA under 3.00 while holding opponents under a .220 batting average. He has a respectable K/9 of 8.1 and a great matchup against the Rangers who are ranked 26th in wOBA against right-hand pitching and 24th in wOBA at home. Hammel may not be the safest play, but he offers great upside at his price point. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $7400 FD, $NA DD, $8400 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Colby Lewis – Lewis has pitched better than his 5.34 ERA would suggest, but not by much. He is a fly-ball pitcher that has given up a .350+ wOBA to hitters from both side of the plate. We have been avoiding him all season long and there is no reason to start targeting him now. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $6500 FD, $11200 DD, $6200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Coco Crisp – The A’s haven’t had a ton of success against Colby Lewis, but I expect them to knock him around a bit tonight. Lewis has given up a high wOBA to batters from both sides of the plate and the A’s should see a nice park boost in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park.

Additional Plays: Josh Donaldson

Texas

Rougned Odor – Even though Jason Hammel has been efficient against left-hand hitters this season, Odor is a solid value play at 2B. He is coming off of a big game last night and now has 12 hits and 9 RBI’s over his last 10 games.

Additional Plays: Adrian Beltre

Kansas City at Chicago White Sox

Kansas City					Chicago White Sox
James Shields		Vegas Moneyline			Jose Quintana		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		KCR (-135)			LEFT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.259	0.704	0.311	18.90%	SP vs. Left	0.253	0.659	0.291	22.00%
SP vs. Right	0.249	0.696	0.306	19.70%	SP vs. Right	0.249	0.647	0.288	21.20%
Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KCR vs L		Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CHW vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• James Shields – The Royals are now 2 full games behind the Tigers in the AL Central, but still have a chance to catch them so we can expect the every day starters to see their usual playing time tonight. Big game James should be in for another excellent outing tonight as he faces a White Sox offense that has slumped down the stretch of the season. Shields has a solid K/9 of 7.2 and is able to pitch deep into games by not allowing many walks. Rating = 7

Salaries: $8700 FD, $17200 DD, $9700 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Jose Quintana – Quintana has been sharp in the month of September. He has posted a 1.33 ERA with 26 strikeouts over 20 innings of work. While the Royals don’t strike out all that often, they did rack up the K’s in their last series against the Indians. Run support may be limited for Quintana, but he makes a solid upside play in tournaments. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7500 FD, $ DD, $7700 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Avoid both offenses in this game. Jose Quintana has held hitters from both side of the plate under a .300 wOBA this season.

Chicago White Sox

Avoid all White Sox tonight against James Shields.

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