MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, August 12th Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-08-12 17:38:29

St. Louis at Miami

St. Louis					Miami
Adam Wainwright		Vegas Moneyline			Jarred Cosart		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		STL (-150)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.233	0.624	0.275	22.40%	SP vs. Left	0.258	0.716	0.326	16.40%
SP vs. Right	0.190	0.526	0.237	19.40%	SP vs. Right	0.262	0.679	0.301	12.90%
Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R		Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Adam Wainwright – Wainwright looked sharp in his last start. He struck out 7 batters over 7 innings of work while only giving up 2 earned runs to the Red Sox. There has been a lot of talk about a possible injury with Wainwright as we have seen a drop in velocity and consequently a drop in his strikeouts. While he will be facing a strikeout-happy Marlins offense, I’m going to pass on Wainwright once again. I’d like to see a couple of quality starts in a row from him before targeting him in daily leagues. Rating = 6

Salaries: $9900 FD, $20550 DD, $9500 DK, $NA FF, $29100 SS, $20550 FTD

• Jarred Cosart – In his first 2 starts with the Marlins, Cosart has given up a combined 9 earned runs while only striking out 7 batters. He has a low K/9 of only 5.8 and he is walking a ton of batters this season (3.9 per 9 innings). The Cardinals offense has been better in recent weeks and should be able to knock him around a bit tonight. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5800 FD, $10750 DD, $5100 DK, $ FF, $14000 SS, $10750 FTD

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Matt Carpenter – Cosart hasn’t been particularly great against LH hitters this season. He has given up a .326 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate and Carpenter has reached base successfully 14 times over his last 10 games.

Additional Plays: Matt Adams, Matt Holliday, Jhonny Peralta

Miami

While I’m not going to be targeting Wainwright tonight, I’m not going to be targeting any Marlins hitters against him either. Giancarlo Stanton is always in play for GPP’s, but this is still a tough matchup for the Marlins.

Washington at NY Mets

Washington					NY Mets
Doug Fister		Vegas Moneyline			Rafael Montero		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		WAS (-130)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.269	0.697	0.307	14.80%	SP vs. Left	0.286	1.065	0.451	12.50%
SP vs. Right	0.223	0.619	0.274	16.60%	SP vs. Right
Batter Splits	WSN BvP		WSN vs R		Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Doug Fister – Fister has really pitched well this season. He owns a 2.49 ERA, but his 3.68 xFIP does suggest some regression. His strikeouts are down a bit, but so are his walks. He owns an impressive K/BB ratio of 5.1 this season. Tonight he faces a Mets offense that he dominated in his last start. Fister struck out 7 batters over 7 and 1/3 innings without giving up a single earned run. He’ll be pitching in Citi Field which is one of the more pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball. He’s a solid target in cash games once again. Rating = 7

Salaries: $8500 FD, $17650 DD, $8400 DK, $NA FF, $25200 SS, $17650 FTD

• Rafael Montero – Montero will be making his 5th start of the season. In his first 4 starts, he has posted a 5.40 ERA (4.78 xFIP) with a K/9 of 7.6. His biggest issue this season has been his command. He is averaging close to 5 walks per 9 innings. He may be worth a look as a deep tournament play, but can safely be avoided in all cash games. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5000 FD, $8350 DD, $5900 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Adam LaRoche – The sample size is extremely small, but Montero has given up a .451 wOBA to LH hitters this season. LaRoche has been terrific against RH pitching this season and has been swinging a hot bat with 13 hits (7 XBH’s) over his last 10 games.

Additional Plays: Denard Span

NY Mets

Daniel Murphy – Murphy is batting .310 with a .350 wOBA against RH pitching this season. He’s a very consistent fantasy option at 2B and should be targeted in cash games against Fister.

Additional Plays: Lucas Duda

Tampa Bay at Texas

Tampa Bay					Texas
Jeremy Hellickson		Vegas Moneyline			Nick Tepesch		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		TBR (-125)			RIGHT		9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.191	0.580	0.260	10.00%	SP vs. Left	0.256	0.763	0.336	11.60%
SP vs. Right					SP vs. Right	0.294	0.874	0.383	14.60%
Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TBR vs R		Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jeremy Hellickson – Hellickson pitched a gem in his last start. He only gave up 2 hits and a single earned run over 7 strong innings against the A’s in Oakland. He will look to continue that tonight against the Rangers in Arlington. Hellickson mixes up his pitches well, but he’s a fly ball pitcher which can sometimes come back to bite him. This season he has given up a career-high 58% fly ball rate. If he can keep the ball in the park, he’ll likely pitch well, but that’s a big if. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5300 FD, $10400 DD, $5900 DK, $NA FF, $16700 SS, $10400 FTD

• Nick Tepesch – Tepesch has one of the lowest K-rates of any starting pitcher in baseball. He’s averaging less than 5 strikeouts per 9 innings which really hurts his fantasy value. Not only that, but he also has an ERA of 4.46. He’s been a reverse splits pitcher this season which bodes well for the RH hitters in the Rays lineup. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5200 FD, $9700 DD, $4900 DK, $ FF, $13000 SS, $9700 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Ben Zobrist – Zobrist continues to swing a hot bat. He had 2 hits last night and now has 18 hits over his last 10 games. His price has skyrocketed across the industry, but I still think he makes a terrific play against Tepesch in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park.

Additional Plays: Evan Longoria, Matt Joyce, Desmond Jennings

Texas

Adrian Beltre – As mentioned above, Hellickson is a fly ball pitcher that often gives up HR’s. Beltre has been terrific against RH pitching this season with a .373 wOBA. He’s also been terrific at Globe Life Park with a .421 wOBA.

Additional Plays: Elvis Andrus, Shin-Soo Choo, J.P. Arencibia

Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs

Milwaukee					Chicago Cubs
Wily Peralta		Vegas Moneyline			Kyle Hendricks		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		MIL (-115)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.303	0.823	0.360	17.20%	SP vs. Left	0.224	0.595	0.259	18.20%
SP vs. Right	0.196	0.592	0.270	17.00%	SP vs. Right	0.217	0.598	0.267	14.60%
Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R		Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Wily Peralta – Peralta has always had a terrific fastball and he’s finally been able to put it all together this season. He has a 3.42 ERA (3.58 xFIP) on the season with a K/9 of 6.7. As long as the wind is not blowing out in Wrigley, he makes a solid play tonight against the Cubs who are ranked 28th in wOBA (.292) vs. RH pitching. The Cubs also strike out at a 22% clip against righties. Rating = 7

Salaries: $7800 FD, $14200 DD, $7500 DK, $NA FF, $23300 SS, $14200 FTD

• Kyle Hendricks – Hendricks has quietly put together a very good 4-game stretch. Over those 4 starts, he has 28 innings pitched while only giving up a combined 4 earned runs. He’s not going to hurt you if you avoid him in cash games tonight as I doubt anyone will be playing him, but he may be a nice contrarian play in a GPP. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6100 FD, $14650 DD, $6100 DK, $ FF, $17700 SS, $14650 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Scooter Gennett – Scooter makes a nice play tonight for 2 reasons. First, he’s facing a RH pitcher and he is one of the only LH hitters in this Brewers lineup. Second, his price is depressed across the industry. He’s extremely cheap on both FD and DK for the type of upside that he provides.

Additional Plays: Carlos Gomez

Chicago Cubs

Anthony Rizzo – Rizzo wins the BvP Play of the Day Award. He’s faced Peralta 19 times in his career and has 8 hits off of him, 4 of which were HR’s.

Additional Plays: Starlin Castro

Minnesota at Houston

Minnesota					Houston
Yohan Pino		Vegas Moneyline			Collin McHugh		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		HOU (-128)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.303	0.814	0.358	15.10%	SP vs. Left	0.211	0.637	0.286	24.90%
SP vs. Right	0.215	0.608	0.264	22.90%	SP vs. Right	0.186	0.622	0.278	30.30%
Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs R		Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Yohan Pino – We have a ton of average fantasy options on the mound tonight with Pino being one of them. While he does face a strikeout-happy Astros offense, the Astros have been making it tough on opposing pitchers in recent weeks. Pino owns a 4.59 ERA (4.33 xFIP) with a K/9 of 6.5. He’s an average option tonight against the Astros. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5400 FD, $10700 DD, $5600 DK, $NA FF, $14000 SS, $10700 FTD

• Collin McHugh – McHugh is one of the better pitchers in baseball that is yet to become a household name. He owns a 3.12 ERA (3.12 xFIP) with an impressive K/9 of 10.2. He gives up a decent number of walks and HR’s, but his high K-rate more than makes up for that. While the Twins are a pretty patient team at the plate, they do strike out at a 21% clip against RH pitching this season. I think McHugh can provide 7 solid innings with a strikeout per inning. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $7400 FD, $16800 DD, $8700 DK, $ FF, $24100 SS, $16800 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Danny Santana – Santana has proved that he is the real deal. He added 3 more hits to his resume last night and now has 16 hits with 4 SB’s and 11 runs over his last 10 games.

Additional Plays: None

Houston

Jonathon Singleton – Pino has been very good against RH hitters this season, but has given up a .350 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate. Singleton has terrific power against RH pitching and makes a great GPP play tonight.

Additional Plays: Jason Castro, Jose Altuve

MLB Grind Down Page 2 – Page 3