MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 20th Page Three

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-08-20 18:12:47

San Francisco at Chicago Cubs

San Francisco					Chicago Cubs
Jake Peavy		Vegas Moneyline			Edwin Jackson		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		SFG (-122)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.252	0.812	0.356	18.30%	SP vs. Left	0.329	0.905	0.396	17.50%
SP vs. Right	0.272	0.763	0.333	18.60%	SP vs. Right	0.255	0.781	0.343	23.20%
Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SFG vs R		Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jake Peavy – Peavy is coming off of a solid start against the White Sox, but he had given up 3+ runs in each of his previous 4 starts. Tonight he travels to Chicago to take on the Cubs. There is a slight breeze blowing out to left field, but it’s not strong enough that you need to avoid the pitchers here (although you may want to avoid them anyway). The Cubs have not hit RH pitching well this season, but Peavy is a pretty risky fantasy option at this point of the season. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6500 FD, $12800 DD, $6700 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $12800 FTD

• Edwin Jackson – Jackson is an extremely risky fantasy option every time he takes the mound. He owns a solid K/9 of 8.0, but that comes with a lot of risk as he has an ERA of 5.74 and he is walking nearly 4 batters per 9 innings. While the Giants haven’t been world-beaters against RH pitching, they are still a very capable offense. I think I’ll take a pass on Jackson, even with his discounted price tag. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5700 FD, $10350 DD, $5600 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $10350 FTD

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Pablo Sandoval – Petey Pablo makes a terrific play at 3B tonight. Not only does he have a great matchup in terms of handedness against Jackson, but he also has terrific BvP numbers against him in his career. He has gone 8/15 with 3 XBH’s off of Jackson.

Additional Plays: Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, Angel Pagan

Chicago Cubs

Anthony Rizzo – I’m a huge fan of Rizzo tonight against Peavy. Not only has Peavy given up a .359 wOBA to LH hitters this season, but he has also given up 15 of his 21 HR’s to batters from the left side of the plate. Meanwhile, Rizzo has 21 HR’s off of RH pitching.

Additional Plays: Arismendy Alcantara, Chris Coghlan, Javier Baez

Cleveland at Minnesota

Cleveland					Minnesota
T.J. House		Vegas Moneyline			Ricky Nolasco		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		CLE (-118)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.256	0.656	0.291	21.00%	SP vs. Left	0.346	0.954	0.414	12.70%
SP vs. Right	0.322	0.882	0.388	13.60%	SP vs. Right	0.304	0.855	0.368	18.80%
Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R		Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• T.J. House – Vegas is expecting this to be one of the higher scoring games of the night which makes both pitchers in this one look like pretty average options tonight. House owns a 4.13 ERA on the season with a mediocre K/9 of 6.1. He is producing an impressive ground-ball rate of 61% though. Of the two starters, I think House has more upside, but that doesn’t mean that you need to target him in any of your lineups. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5600 FD, $8750 DD, $5600 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $8750 FTD

• Ricky Nolasco – At this point, Nolasco is just looking to gain some momentum and take that into next season. It has been a disappointing year on all accounts for Nolasco. He has an ERA of 5.99 with a K/9 of 6.1. While his peripheral stats suggest that he has been pitching much better, his xFIP of 4.16 is still pretty average. This is an extremely tough matchup for Nolasco as the Indians lineup consists primarily of LH hitters and he has given up a .413 wOBA to lefties this season. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5000 FD, $8950 DD, $5300 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $8950 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Michael Brantley – As mentioned above, Nolasco has been awful against LH hitters this season. Brantley draws a great matchup against the righty and should see plenty of RBI opportunities in this one. It also doesn’t hurt that Brantley is a dual threat in terms of speed (15 SB’s) and power (18 HR’s).

Additional Plays: Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana

Minnesota

Kennys Vargas – Once again, until his price on FD goes up, I will continue to plug him in at 1B. He has been extremely consistent and you aren’t going to find another clean-up hitter with his type of power at minimum salary. Keep targeting the powerful rookie in all league formats, especially on FD.

Additional Plays: Brian Dozier, Danny Santana

Baltimore at Chicago White Sox

Baltimore					Chicago White Sox
Wei-Yin Chen		Vegas Moneyline			Hector Noesi		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		BAL (-140)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.292	0.750	0.331	16.60%	SP vs. Left	0.224	0.695	0.307	16.60%
SP vs. Right	0.266	0.769	0.334	18.10%	SP vs. Right	0.319	0.865	0.380	17.10%
Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R		Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CHW vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Wei-Yin Chen – Chen is in a tough spot tonight. He is facing a White Sox offense that is very good at home. Chen struggles against both LH and RH hitters and can safely be avoided in all league formats at his price point. Rating = 4

Salaries: $7000 FD, $13500 DD, $7800 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $13500 FTD

• Hector Noesi – I have yet to target Noesi this season and I’m not going to start tonight as he faces a very talented Orioles offense. Noesi owns a 4.84 ERA with a K/9 of only 6.5. I’d much rather target the offenses in this one. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6600 FD, $9700 DD, $6100 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $9700 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Nick Markakis – Markakis is always a terrific cash game play against RH pitching, yet he tends to get overlooked because he doesn’t hit a ton of HR’s. While that hurts his value as a GPP play, he’s very consistent and has a high floor which makes him a great cash game play. Markakis has 16 hits over his last 10 games and a great matchup against Noesi.

Additional Plays: Adam Jones, Nelson Cruz

Chicago White Sox

Jose Abreu – Abreu is known for his power against RH pitching, but he’s batting .321 with a .416 wOBA against lefties. I’ll take that any day of the week, especially against an average lefty like Chen.

Additional Plays: Alexei Ramirez, Dayan Viciedo

Kansas City at Colorado

Kansas City					Colorado
Danny Duffy		Vegas Moneyline			Jorge De La Rosa		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		KCR (-120)			LEFT		9.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.145	0.393	0.184	19.80%	SP vs. Left	0.176	0.463	0.210	27.30%
SP vs. Right	0.214	0.650	0.292	19.70%	SP vs. Right	0.255	0.799	0.352	15.40%
Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KCR vs L		Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Danny Duffy – I’ve been harping on Duffy’s stats for the last few weeks now, but nothing seems to have changed. He still owns an extremely low ERA (2.60), but has a high xFIP (4.54). You’d think that his ERA would eventually start to closely resemble the xFIP, but so far that hasn’t been the case. Maybe a matchup against the Rockies in Coors Field will do the trick. Duffy is a fly ball pitcher and I have a feeling that some of those fly balls will find those huge gaps in the outfield. Rating = 3

Salaries: $7100 FD, $11800 DD, $6500 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $11800 FTD

• Jorge De La Rosa – De La Rosa has somehow managed to pitch well in Coors. Since the start of 2013, he has posted an ERA right around 3.00 in Coors. That’s in large part thanks to his 51% ground ball rate. Even with good splits at home, I will not be recommending De La Rosa tonight. This is still Coors Field that we are talking about and the Royals are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6800 FD, $12750 DD, $6200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $12750 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Salvador Perez – Sal Perez is always one of my favorite plays at catcher when is facing a LH pitcher. He also sees a huge ballpark boost with this game being played in Coors.

Additional Plays: Omar Infante, Billy Butler, Josh Willingham

Colorado

Nolan Arenado – As mentioned above, Duffy is a fly ball pitcher that hasn’t been pitching nearly as well as his ERA suggests. Arenado should be batting clean-up and he’s had good numbers against lefties this season (.322 batting average with a .404 wOBA).

Additional Plays: Drew Stubbs, Charlie Blackmon, Josh Rutledge

San Diego at LA Dodgers

San Diego					LA Dodgers
Eric Stults		Vegas Moneyline			Roberto Hernandez		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		LAD (-147)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.272	0.761	0.332	10.70%	SP vs. Left	0.209	0.654	0.299	8.50%
SP vs. Right	0.282	0.824	0.359	15.70%	SP vs. Right	0.249	0.741	0.322	18.80%
Batter Splits	SDP BvP		SDP vs R		Batter Splits	LAD BvP		LAD vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Eric Stults – Stults has had a disappointing season. He owns a 4.64 ERA with a K/9 of only 5.6. If this game were being played in Petco, that may be another story, but I’m going to pass on him tonight against the Dodgers in Dodger Stadium. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6100 FD, $11000 DD, $7500 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $11000 FTD

• Roberto Hernandez – Hernandez is typically far off of my fantasy radar, but I actually think he’s in play tonight against the Padres. Despite a recent offensive surge, the Padres are still ranked dead last in most offensive categories this season. Hernandez is a big favorite in a game that features a low run total. That’s not bad for a pitcher at his price point. Rating = 6

Salaries: $6100 FD, $12300 DD, $6800 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $12300 FTD

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Seth Smith – Hernandez has struggled with LH hitters throughout his career and Smith has hit RH pitching well this season. Not a bad recipe for success.

Additional Plays: None

LA Dodgers

Matt Kemp – Kemp is one of the top plays in the OF tonight. He’s been locked in since the start of June and has hit LH pitching well throughout his career. Stults has given up a .349 wOBA to RH hitters this season and Kemp should see plenty of RBI opportunities.

Additional Plays: Scott Van Slyke, Yasiel Puig, Dee Gordon