MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, September 17th Page Two
Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs
| Cincinnati | Chicago Cubs | ||||||||
| Daniel Corcino | Vegas Moneyline | Kyle Hendricks | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | CHC (-140) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | 0.227 | 0.586 | 0.260 | 13.10% | ||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | 0.243 | 0.610 | 0.273 | 15.50% | ||||
| Batter Splits | CIN BvP  | CIN vs R | Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Daniel Corcino – Corcino will be making his 2nd career starts. He’s not one of the Reds top prospects and has posted pretty pedestrian numbers at the AA level this season with a 4.07 ERA and a K/9 of 7.3. His price across the industry is cheap, but he’s more risk than reward tonight against the Cubs. Rating = 3
Salaries: $3000 FD, $NA DD, $5000 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Kyle Hendricks – Hendricks owns a shiny 2.38 ERA, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. His BABIP of .268 is well below the league average which is evidenced in his xFIP of 3.95. Hendricks is averaging just over 5 strikeouts per 9 innings, but he does draw a favorable matchup against the Reds who are ranked 26th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Hendricks is worth a look as a tournament play, but can be avoided in cash games. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6500 FD, $13400 DD, $7000 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Cincinnati
Billy Hamilton – Hendricks has held both LH and RH hitters under a .280 wOBA this season, but as mentioned above, he has gotten extremely lucky with his low BABIP. Hamilton sees a nice stolen base potential boost with a righty on the mound.
Additional Plays: Todd Frazier
Chicago Cubs
Jorge Soler – Soler has been terrific in his short stint at the majors this season. He’s batting .373 and already has 5 HR’s and 15 RBI’s in his first 14 games. He’s off to a similar start as Kennys Vargas for the Twins. Soler is certainly in play tonight agianst the inexperienced Corcino.
Additional Plays: Chris Coghlan, Luis Valbuena
Detroit at Minnesota
| Detroit | Minnesota | ||||||||
| David Price | Vegas Moneyline | Kyle Gibson | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | DET (-175) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.262 | 0.679 | 0.301 | 23.30% | SP vs. Left | 0.272 | 0.713 | 0.318 | 9.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.230 | 0.639 | 0.281 | 28.60% | SP vs. Right | 0.239 | 0.661 | 0.297 | 18.50% |
| Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- David Price – Price is always in consideration for the top play of the night when he takes the mound. On the season he owns a 3.26 ERA (2.76 xFIP) with a K/9 of 9.9. The best part about Price is that he doesn’t throw many balls. He’s only walking 1.31 batters per 9 innings and throwing strikes allows him to keep his pitch count down and pitch deep into game. The Twins are ranked 22nd against LH pitching this season while striking out at a 22% clip. It’s hard not to like his strikeout potential in this one. Rating = 9
Salaries: $11200 FD, $21250 DD, $12500 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Kyle Gibson – Gibson has an impressive 55% ground ball rate, but that’s about the only elite pitching stat in his repertoire. He has an average ERA (4.58), a below average K/9 (5.1), and a bad walk rate (2.9 per 9 innings). Tonight he is facing a Tigers offense that is ranked 4th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. Rating = 3
Salaries: $5000 FD, $10350 DD, $5500 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Detroit
J.D. Martinez – What a find Martinez has been for the Tigers. J.D. has been red hot over his last 10 games with 14 hits (4 HR’s), 12 RBI’s, and 6 runs. He’s a very streaky hitter that is in a great spot tonight against Kyle Gibson.
Additional Plays: Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez
Minnesota
Avoid all Twins tonight against David Price who has held LH and RH hitters under a .305 wOBA this season.
Cleveland at Houston
| Cleveland | Houston | ||||||||
| Carlos Carrasco | Vegas Moneyline | Brett Oberholtzer | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | CLE (-130) | LEFT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.214 | 0.568 | 0.256 | 22.80% | SP vs. Left | 0.297 | 0.757 | 0.335 | 20.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.223 | 0.590 | 0.262 | 26.60% | SP vs. Right | 0.282 | 0.744 | 0.325 | 14.00% |
| Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs L | Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Carlos Carrasco – Carrasco has terrific velocity. He’s hurling 98 MPH fastballs late into the game. On the season he owns a 2.86 ERA (2.81 xFIP) with a K/9 of 8.9. He may have the best upside of any pitcher tonight when you factor in his price and his matchup. In case you didn’t know, the Astros love to strike out, especially against RH pitching. The Astros are ranked 21st in wOBA vs. RH pitching while striking out at a 23.6% clip. At his price, I will be heavily targeting Carrasco tonight. Rating = 7
Salaries: $7500 FD, $13050 DD, $8800 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Brett Oberholtzer – Oberholtzer is having a decent season. He has a 4.51 ERA with a K/9 of 6.0. He doesn’t give up many walks and is only allowing a HR per fly ball rate of 5.3%. He draws a nice matchup tonight against the Indians who are ranked 26th in wOBA vs. LH pitching. At his cheap price point, he could make a decent tournament play, but I like the guy pitching opposite him quite a bit more. Rating = 5
Salaries: $5900 FD, $9850 DD, $6200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Cleveland
Michael Brantley – This isn’t your typical lefty/lefty matchup. Brantley has held his own against LH pitching this season with a .285 batting average and a .353 wOBA. Oberholtzer on the other hand, has struggled with LH hitters as he has given up a .335 wOBA to them this season.
Additional Plays: Carlos Santana
Houston
The Astros offense has been ice cold over the past couple of weeks. With Carlos Carrasco being one of my top pitching options, I’ll be avoiding all hitters against him as he has held both LH and RH hitters under a .265 wOBA this season.
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City
| Chicago White Sox | Kansas City | ||||||||
| Chris Sale | Vegas Moneyline | Yordano Ventura | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | KCR (-110) | RIGHT | 6.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.148 | 0.354 | 0.167 | 37.70% | SP vs. Left | 0.231 | 0.655 | 0.294 | 19.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.208 | 0.590 | 0.265 | 28.50% | SP vs. Right | 0.250 | 0.701 | 0.314 | 20.90% |
| Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CHW vs R | Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KCR vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Chris Sale – Sale is one of my favorite pitchers to watch. Even when I don’t roster him, I like watching his starts. He has been dominant this season with a 1.99 ERA and an impressive K/9 of 10.6. He is only walking 1.9 batters per 9 innings and is giving up a career low 0.61 HR’s per 9 innings. Sale is also producing a 13% swinging strike rate which is one of the highest in all of baseball. While he does face an Astros team that doesn’t strike out often, that seems to apply more to average pitchers than it does to elite pitchers. I still expect a strikeout per inning from Sale tonight. Rating = 8.5
Salaries: $11300 FD, $21850 DD, $12500 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Yordano Ventura – Since the start of August, Ventura has an ERA right around 2.70. During that stretch, he has 38 K’s over 43 innings of work while holding opponents to a .210 batting average. With the exception of three solo home runs, Ventura has had great success against the White Sox in his career. Ventura sees a small boost in potential strikeouts as the White Sox strike out at a 23% clip against RH pitching this season. The biggest concern with Ventura is his lack of run support with Sale on the mound for the Sox. Rating = 6
Salaries: $8000 FD, $15400 DD, $8200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Chicago White Sox
Jose Abreu is in play for tournaments and Adam Eaton is in play for cash games. That said, I won’t be using any batters from the White Sox tonight against Yordano Ventura in this pitcher-friendly ballpark.
Kansas City
Avoid all Royals tonight against Chris Sale who has held LH and RH hitters under a .265 wOBA this season.
Milwaukee at St. Louis
| Milwaukee | St. Louis | ||||||||
| Mike Fiers | Vegas Moneyline | Adam Wainwright | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | STL (-148) | RIGHT | 6.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.184 | 0.494 | 0.225 | 27.40% | SP vs. Left | 0.246 | 0.634 | 0.281 | 20.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.165 | 0.503 | 0.223 | 30.60% | SP vs. Right | 0.201 | 0.557 | 0.249 | 18.60% |
| Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Mike Fiers – This will be his first start since hitting Giancarlo Stanton in the face with one of his dynamic fastballs. It will be interesting to see how he responds as he was clearly distraught after the game the other night. Fiers owns an elite strikeout rate of 9.9 batters per 9 innings, but does draw a tough matchup against the Cardinals who have a knack of hitting well in September. The Cardinals have the 10th best wOBA over the last 30 days and have their ace on the mound. Fiers is best suited as a GPP play tonight. Rating = 6
Salaries: $9000 FD, $16200 DD, $10300 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Adam Wainwright – Wainwright is coming off of his best outing in over a month. He struck out 8 batters over 6 innings of work against the Rockies while only giving up a single earned run. He may be heating up right in time for the playoffs. He’ll have his hands full with the Brewers tonight, but he will have the platoon advantage over their RH-heavy lineup. Wainwright has held RH hitters to a .249 wOBA this season. While Wainwright should pitch well here, you are going to have to pay up for him. I’d rather have Chris Sale, David Price, or Alex Cobb. Rating = 7.5
Salaries: $9800 FD, $20150 DD, $9800 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Milwaukee
Aramis Ramirez – Ramirez has hit Wainwright extremely well throughout his career. In 56 at-bats against Wainwright, Ramirez has 23 hits, 11 of which went for extra bases. That roughly equates to a .400 batting average and an OPS of 1.20.
Additional Plays: None
St. Louis
Matt Carpenter – While he’s not my favorite play tonight, Carpenter is a decent cash game play. He has been swinging a hot bat with a .380 OBP over his last 10 games.
Additional Plays: Matt Adams