Market Exploitation: NFL Week 2
Now we officially get to exploit daily fantasy football market machinations.
Players highlighted in this space last week were included because of a generally negative perception of their fantasy prospects headed into the 2014 season – or, at least, what I perceived as skepticism toward their fantasy usefulness.
This is the first week we get to see, plainly and clearly, whose daily fantasy stock is dropping, and how we might take advantage of those dips in DFS salaries.
The Market Watch tool on RotoGrinders — an incredibly useful feature that will be key to market exploitations – is going to be the centerpiece of our approach from here on out. Market Watch tells us which players have seen their salary dip and which guys have had their asking price skyrocket.
Remember, these plays are mostly for large-field tournmanets, not head to heads and 50/50s. We’re going to be right alone or wrong alone on many of the guys listed below.
Let’s get to some exploitation.
Market Exploitation: FanDuel
Quarterbacks
Geno Smith ($6,900): Geno’s salary dropped by $100 after a lackluster Week 1 performance that was very close to being spectacular.
There were some hopeful statistical signs for the Jets’ signal caller: He notched .46 fantasy points per drop back against Oakland, higher than Jay Cutler, Andrew Luck, and Nick Foles in their first games of 2014. Geno completed 86 percent of his passes and rushed a whopping 10 times for 40 yards.
Gang Green will have to score points as Aaron Rodgers and company shreds New York’s patchwork secondary. Geno is one of my favorite plays of the week.
Nick Foles ($8,300): Foles, who caused full-fledged panic attacks among his DFS investors during the first half of the Eagles’ tilt against Jacksonville, saw his FanDuel salary drop by $200. He’s now the 10th priciest signal caller on the site.
Foles finished as fantasy’s No. 8 quarterback in Week 1, and now gets a leaky Indianapolis secondary. Even better for Foles: the Colts’ run defense appeared not to be awful last week against Denver, and with Philly’s offensive line injuries, Foles could be forced into shouldering more of the Eagles’ offensive load.
Running Backs
Jeremy Hill ($4,900): Hill’s FanDuel asking price plummeted this week, dropping by $500 and making him the 62nd most expensive running back on the board. This opens up an opportunity for us.
Benglas offensive coordinator Hue Jackson said Monday that he approached the rookie runner after Sunday’s game against Baltimore and said Hill “will be playing more going forward.” I don’t think Cincy’s backfield is shaping up to be a timeshare, but at Hill’s low, low price against an Atlanta front seven that was gashed by New Orleans’ running backs a week ago, I don’t see a reason not to seek some exposure to the Bengals’ big back.
Atlanta posted Pro Football Focus’s third worst run defense grade of Week 1. I like Hill as a sneaky tournament play with an obviously low floor.
Wide Receivers
Torrey Smith ($5,900): Smith, after being stranded on Leon Hall Island – which may or may not be an actual thing – Smith is now seen by many fantasy footballers as the third option in the Ravens’ passing attack. He’s not.
Smith’s price fell by $500 this week, making him 41st in receiver salary on FanDuel. Teammate Steve Smith is now more expensive than Torrey. That’s an inefficiency begging for exploitation.
Torrey was targeted seven times – catching just three for 50 yards – against the Bengals. Baltimore coaches and Joe Flacco have said Sunday’s performance was not a sign of things to come for the No. 1 option in Gary Kubiak’s system. Torrey is the poster boy for DFS market exploitation this week.
Andre Johnson ($7,100): The old guy managed six grabs for 93 yards in Week 1, despite the Texans throwing the ball just 22 times against Washington. Andre would’ve gone berserk if Houston had to score points to beat RGIII and company.
Andre is now in the same price range as Victor Cruz, Larry Fitzgerald, Pierre Garcon, and Keenan Allen. I’d much rather have Andre over those similarly priced options. Even better: his FanDuel price dropped by $300.
Tight End
Charles Clay ($5,300): Clay’s pedestrian stat line against New England (two catches for 27 yards) led to a FanDuel price drop of $500. He now makes for a great play for anyone looking to skimp on tight end in Week 2 tournaments.
Clay, the 18th priciest FanDuel tight end, saw the second-most targets of any Miami pass catcher. Clay is priced lower than Eric Ebron. Consider that for a moment.
In Week 2, Clay faces a Buffalo linebacking crew that was roasted by Chicago tight end Martellus Bennett a week ago. Buffalo’s starting linebackers both ranked among the bottom-5 in PFF’s linebacker pass coverage grades. Clay is still Miami’s only legit red zone target, and I expect him to prove a preeminent value against the Bills.
Market Exploitation: DraftKings
Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers ($7,900): I never expected Rodgers to make it into this column, but after an eye-popping DraftKings salary drop of $900, I would be foolish not to include him in this space.
Yes, Rodgers and the Packers’ passing game looked pedestrian in the Thunderdome against the ferocious machine known as the Seattle defense. Everyone does. Rodgers is now seventh in quarterback price on DraftKings, taking on a sieve of a Jets’ secondary that allowed two touchdowns to rookie Derek Carr a week ago.
The RotoGrinders DK projections have Rodgers notching a healthy 21.2 fantasy points this week, and as the #1 QB. Don’t overthink this if you don’t want to go super cheap on quarterback this week.
Tom Brady ($7,000): Brady, with Rob Gronkowski limited to 25 pass routes in the season opener, posted an uninspiring stat line against a sneaky good Dolphins’ secondary. Brady’s DraftKings price subsequently dropped by $700. He’s now the site’s 19th most expensive quarterback.
Lost in the Vikings’ total domination of St. Louis last week was the 272 passing yards Rams’ signal callers threw for against a Minnesota secondary that was really quite bad last year. They’ll be better this season, but I don’t think this is a particularly bad matchup for Tommy Boy.
While others are plugging and playing Jake Locker, Nick Foles, and Matthew Stafford, I think Brady becomes a nice against-the-grain play.
Running Backs
Jeremy Hill ($3,000): The Bengals’ rookie runner played a measly 10 snaps in Sunday’s win against the Ravens. Gio Bernard was the clear workhorse. Hence, Hill’s DraftKings price dropped by an incredible $1,700, making him available for the bare minimum $3,000.
Cincinnati offensive coordinator Hue Jackson said this week that he approached Hill and told him he would be more involved in the team’s offensive plans, just in time for a matchup against the Falcons’ unintimidating front seven. Atlanta’s run defense was graded by Pro Football Focus as a bottom-3 unit in Week 1, as the Saints’ running backs ran for 139 yards and three scores.
Cincy’s big back will be an extraordinarily contrarian play this week, and saves enough cash for us to stock up on high-end receivers and tight ends. We’re either going to be right alone on Hill or wrong alone – precisely what we’re looking for.
Wide Receivers
T.Y. Hilton ($5,000): For just $100 more than Andrew Hawkins, you can have Hilton, who saw 11 targets in the Colts’ Week 1 loss in Denver.
Hilton reeled in five of those targets for 41 yards, making him one of the more disappointing plays of the season’s first week as the Broncos focused on shutting down the Colts’ most dangerous pass catcher. Hilton’s DraftKings price has since fallen by $500 – more than enough to make him an exploitative play against a so-so Philadelphia coverage unit.
Aaron Dobson ($3,000): Just a quick note on Dobson, who was a healthy scratch in New England’s season opener: he’s now at DraftKings’ minimum cost and has a chance of suiting up against Minnesota this week.
Dobson caught three passes for 57 yards and a score in his only preseason action after offseason foot surgery. He’s what the Patriots need as a tall, fast deep threat for Tom Brady, and if he’s active, he’s going to find his way into a tournament lineup of mine.
Alshon Jeffery ($6,200): Alshon went from top-end pricing on DraftKings in Week 1 to the site’s 16th highest priced receiver in Week 2. An in-game hamstring injury has a lot to do with that, though Jeffrey still finished with 12.1 fantasy points on just six targets against the Bills.
Jeffery is not expected to miss this week’s game in San Francisco against an exploitable 49ers’ secondary. Jeffery’s Week 2 is $900 lower than his Week 1 salary – enough to get elite fantasy production for a similar price as Larry Fitzgerald and Victor Cruz.
Tight End
Charles Clay ($3,200): Clay, the Dolphins’ second most targeted pass catcher in Week 1, gets his shot at a Buffalo linebacking crew that gave up eight catches, 70 yards, and a score to Martellus Bennett last week.
Clay is among DraftKings’ cheapest starting tight ends – or starters at any position. Buffalo’s linebackers received bottom-5 pass coverage grades from PFF in the season’s opening week, making Clay a clear target for those looking to go cheap at tight end and load up at other positions in tournaments.