NBA Grind Down Friday, December 12th - Page Two
All stat chart buttons below open in an in-screen popup window and include stat tables for all games on the given page of the Grind Down Article
Indiana at Toronto
- Vegas Line – Toronto -9, 198 Over/Under
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Stuckey-Hill-Copeland-West-Hibbert
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Vasquez-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
| Indiana | Toronto | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198.0 |  | Vegas Total | 198.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.0 | Vegas Sprd | -9.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.50 | Team Proj. | 103.50 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.49 | Team Pace | 95.77 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Rodney Stuckey | Solomon Hill | Chris Copeland | David West | Roy Hibbert | Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | Greivis Vasquez | Terrence Ross | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 20 | 2 | 24 | 10 | 18 | Opp. Season | 28 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 30 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 4 | 28 | 19 | 11 | Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 24 | |
Indiana
My how the times have changed. Less than a year ago, the Pacers were considered right there with the Heat as the favorites to come out of the Eastern Conference playoffs. Now they are fighting for the 8th seed in the East. The Pacers are 7-15 to start the season and are listed as 9-point underdogs tonight against the Raptors. This should be a pace-up game for the Pacers, but other than Stuckey, I’ll be avoiding the struggling Pacers tonight.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Rodney Stuckey (FD: $5400, DK: $5000 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 26.4)
Like Victor Oladipo, Stuckey is listed as a shooting guard even though he plays point guard. I’m always a fan of loading my lineups with point guards whenever possible. Over his last four games, he is averaging 13 points, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists per game. It’s not an elite matchup, but Stuckey offers good upside for the price.
Toronto
The Raptors currently hold a half-game lead over the Wizards and Hawks for the best record in the Eastern Conference. They have really played well at home with a 10-3 record. Vegas doesn’t expect the Raptors to have much of a problem tonight against the Pacers, as they are listed as 9-point favorites. Fantasy-wise, this is not a great matchup. The Pacers are one of the slowest-paced teams in the league and they have held their opponents to 97.1 points per game this season. It will be interesting to see if Landry Fields starting was a one-game thing to matchup against the Cavaliers or if that change will stick. If Vasquez is back in the starting lineup, he would become a viable value play once again.
Elite Plays
Kyle Lowry (FD: $9800, DK: $9800 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.5)
Let me give you a quick math lesson in daily fantasy basketball. Lowry minus DeRozan equals fantasy goodness. Or maybe it equals Lowry-squared, I can’t quite remember. Either way, Lowry has been a fantasy beast with DeRozan out of the lineup. Over his last six games, he is averaging 24 points, 4 rebounds, and 10 assists per game. As long as this doesn’t turn into a blowout, he should have another terrific fantasy outing against the Pacers, who are ranked 23rd in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to opposing point guards.
Secondary Plays
Jonas Valanciunas (FD: $6200, DK: $5500 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 18.6)
When Valanciunas is aggressive, he can really take over a game. After putting up 18 points and 12 rebounds against the Nuggets, he backed it up with 18 points and 15 rebounds against the Cavaliers. This may be a nice time to buy low on Val before his price goes up. He has a great chance of posting another double-double tonight, as Roy Hibbert never strays far away from the rim, which should lead to a nice rebounding total for Valanciunas.
Cleveland at New Orleans
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -3, 205.5 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Marion-James-Love-Varejao
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Evans-Babbitt-Davis-Asik
| Cleveland | New Orleans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205.5 |  | Vegas Total | 205.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -3.00 | Vegas Sprd | 3.00 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.25 | Team Proj. | 101.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.76 | Team Pace | 94.79 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | Shawn Marion | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Anderson Varejao | Proj Starter | Jrue Holiday | Tyreke Evans | Luke Babbitt | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | |
| Opp. Season | 18 | 13 | 28 | 8 | 15 | Opp. Season | 10 | 23 | 14 | 26 | 9 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 28 | 19 | 13 | 8 | Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 5 | |
Cleveland
The one question surrounding the Cavaliers tonight is whether or not LeBron James will play. He is listed as questionable for tonight’s game with a sore knee. It’s hard to break down the fantasy options in this game until we know his status because he is responsible for such a huge portion of the Cavaliers production. If he plays tonight, he and Kyrie Irving are both in play against the Pelicans. If he sits, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, and Dion Waiters are all strong fantasy options.
Elite Plays
TBD
Secondary Plays
TBD
New Orleans
The Pelicans are playing at home. Good things happen when the Pelicans play at home. Not only are they 6-2 at home, but they have one of the most generous statisticians in the league. Phantom steals, blocks, rebounds, and assists are a common occurrence in New Orleans. In terms of the matchup against the Cavaliers, this is a pretty favorable one. The Cavaliers are ranked 15th in defensive efficiency, giving up an average of 98.5 points per game to their opponents.
Elite Plays
Anthony Davis (FD: $11200, DK: $11200 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 26.4)
After a three-game mini slump, Davis bounced back with 31 points and 11 rebounds against the Mavericks the other night. His recent slump has brought his price down a bit, which makes him a very interesting play tonight, especially when you consider all of the value available. Davis has the most upside and the highest floor of any player available tonight. He should dominate the Cavaliers, who are ranked 28th in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to opposing power forwards.
Tyreke Evans (FD: $7100, DK: $7000 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 25.1)
Evans has much better splits at home than he does on the road this season. In eight home games, he is averaging 21 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists per game. He’s averaging over 40 fantasy points per game at home, which easily reaches value at his price point. Tonight the Pelicans host the Cavaliers, who have been fairly average at defending the shooting guard position. Evans has a high usage rate of 25.1 and should be targeted in all league formats.
Secondary Plays
Omer Asik (FD: $5600, DK: $5700 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 14.3)
I miss the days where Asik was priced at $4,000 on DK. His price has come up on both FD and DK, but he remains one of the safer centers for cash games. He doesn’t have a very high ceiling, but he has a high floor. This is a good matchup for him, as the Cavaliers also have a big front-court. We don’t have to worry about the Pelicans playing small-ball in this one.
Oklahoma City at Minnesota
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -8.5, 206.5 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – LaVine-Brewer-Wiggins-Young-Dieng
| Oklahoma City | Minnesota | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206.5 |  | Vegas Total | 206.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 107.5 | Team Proj. | 99 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.32 | Team Pace | 98.95 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kevin Durant | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | Proj Starter | Zach LaVine | Corey Brewer | Andrew Wiggins | Thaddeus Young | Gorgui Dieng | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 29 | 26 | 25 | 12 | Opp. Season | 8 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 29 | 24 | 14 | 9 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 22 | 7 | 9 | 18 | |
Oklahoma City
The Thunder picked up a win against the Lebron-less Cavaliers last night. They are one of only two teams that are playing in the second half of a back-to-back tonight. Kevin Durant is expected to play, but he will still be on a 30 minute cap which severely limits his fantasy appeal. The Thunder have one of the best matchups on the board tonight. The Wolves are ranked 28th in defensive efficiency, 29th in points allowed per game, and 21st in rebounding differential.
Elite Plays
Russell Westbrook (FD: $9900, DK: $10100 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 37.7)
Westbrook is averaging 39.6 fantasy points per game this season, based on an average of 28 minutes of playing time per game. On a 35-minute basis (what he is averaging recently), Westbrook is averaging 49.5 fantasy points. That’s about what Westbrook needs to reach value at his price point. Westbrook draws a terrific matchup against Zach LaVine and the T-Wolves, who are ranked 24th in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to opposing point guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Serge Ibaka (FD: $7700, DK: $6900 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 22)
Ibaka was very quiet in last night’s game against the Cavaliers. He got into some early foul trouble and finished with only 7 points and 2 blocks. This is a great spot for a bounce back game from Ibaka. Not only are the T-Wolves a bad rebounding team, but their opponents are averaging 5.9 blocks per game, which is the 2nd highest in the NBA. Ibaka is one of my favorite tournament plays tonight.
Minnesota
The Wolves will be without Mo Williams again tonight, which means rookie Zach LaVine will continue to man the point. The Wolves are listed as 8.5-point underdogs tonight against a very good defensive team in the Thunder. On the season, the Thunder are ranked 6th in defensive efficiency and 7th in rebounding differential. There are better matchups to exploit tonight.
Elite Plays
Zach LaVine (FD: $4900, DK: $5400 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 20.5)
With Williams out, LaVine will draw another start at point guard tonight. Over his last four starts, he is averaging 15 points, 4 rebounds, and 7 assists in 38.5 minutes per game. While the Thunder have been very stout defensively this season, they have been average at defending opposing point guards. They are ranked 17th in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to point guards. LaVine should continue to see all of the minutes he can handle. He’s a safe cash game play with good upside.
Secondary Plays
None
Charlotte at Memphis
- Vegas Line – Memphis -10, 193 Over/Under
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Stephenson-Henderson-Zeller-Jefferson
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Allen-Randolph-Gasol
| Charlotte | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193.0 |  | Vegas Total | 193.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 10.00 | Vegas Sprd | -10.00 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 91.5 | Team Proj. | 101.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.45 | Team Pace | 94.06 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kemba Walker | Lance Stephenson | Gerald Henderson | Cody Zeller | Al Jefferson | Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Tony Allen | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 4 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 2 | Opp. Season | 29 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 19 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 10 | 23 | 23 | 2 | Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 14 | 20 | 1 | 25 | |
Charlotte
The Hornets are on a two-game winning streak which is unfortunately the highlight of their season so far. They are still only 6-15 and find themselves in a very tough matchup tonight against the Grizzlies, who are ranked 6th in defensive efficiency. Vegas has the Hornets’ team total set at only 91.5 points, which is the lowest of any team on the schedule. With 11 other games on tap tonight, you can safely avoid all Hornets’ players tonight.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Memphis
The Grizzlies are two games behind the Warriors for the best record in the NBA. They have gotten off to an impressive 17-4 start, including a 10-1 record at home. Vegas expects the Grizzlies to take care of business tonight, listing them as 10-point favorites against the visiting Hornets. Overall, this is an average matchup, as the game should be one of the slower-paced games of the night.
Elite Plays
Marc Gasol (FD: $8600, DK: $8500 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.2)
Gasol has always been a well-rounded player, but he has really established his offensive skill set this season. He’s averaging close to 20 points per game to go along with his 8 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 blocks. Gasol has scored at least 40 fantasy points in six of his last ten games. Tonight he will square off against Al Jefferson and the Hornets, who have been in the middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points allowed to centers.
Secondary Plays
Courtney Lee (FD: $4700, DK: $4100 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 14.9)
Lee is one of the few value plays that sees elite playing time on a consistent basis. He is averaging 32 minutes per game this season, which can’t be said for many players at this price point. Lee has been in a mini slump recently, but he is still averaging over 20 fantasy points per game. Tonight he squares off against the Hornets, who are ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency this season.
Detroit at Phoenix
- Vegas Line – Phoenix -9.5, 202 Over/Under
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Caldwell-Pope-Singler-Smith-Drummond
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Bledsoe-Tucker-Morris-Plumlee
| Detroit | Phoenix | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 202.0 |  | Vegas Total | 202.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.5 | Vegas Sprd | -9.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.3 | Team Proj. | 105.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.48 | Team Pace | 98.85 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Brandon Jennings | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Kyle Singler | Josh Smith | Andre Drummond | Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Eric Bledsoe | P.J. Tucker | Markieff Morris | Miles Plumlee | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 22 | 4 | 16 | 25 | Opp. Season | 9 | 24 | 7 | 24 | 28 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 26 | 12 | 16 | 27 | Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 5 | 9 | 26 | 19 | |
Detroit
It’s hard to believe that with all of the talent the Pistons have, they are currently only one game ahead of the Sixers. Luckily for them, they have stayed out of the discussion for the most disappointing team of the season thanks to the Knicks. The Pistons are a team that I have tried to avoid all season long. Not only are they inconsistent, but they are often on the wrong end of too many blowouts. Tread lightly with the Pistons tonight against the Suns.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Andre Drummond (FD: $7700, DK: $8400 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 20.8)
Drummond is worth a look as a tournament play tonight. He draws a terrific matchup against the Suns, who are ranked 29th in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to opposing centers this season. Drummond has 20/20 type of upside, but is too risky to trust in cash games.
Phoenix
Isaiah Thomas is probable for tonight’s game, which is bad news for both Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe. The back-court combination of Thomas and Green can take over a game and when that happens, it hurts the minutes and production of both Dragic and Bledsoe. For that reason, I’ll likely be avoiding all four of the guards mentioned Tonight the Suns host the Pistons. Vegas has the Suns listed as 9.5-point favorites with the total for the game set at 202 points.
Elite Plays
Markieff Morris (FD: $7000, DK: $6600 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.7)
Morris draws one of the more fantasy-friendly matchups tonight. The Pistons are ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to opposing power forwards. Morris has a high usage rate in this offense and has the ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet. His price has come down a playable level on both FD and DK.
Secondary Plays
P.J. Tucker (FD: $4400, DK: $4300 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 12.7)
Tucker hasn’t been great since entering the starting lineup, but he’s been serviceable, averaging 7 points, 6 rebounds, 1 assists, and 1 steal per game. His price on FD is extremely cheap at only $4,400. If you are looking for some salary cap relief at small forward, Tucker is a viable value play. He draws a favorable matchup against the Pistons, who are ranked 21st in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to opposing small forwards.