NBA Grind Down Friday, November 21st - Page Two
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Brooklyn at Oklahoma City
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -1, 188.5 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Johnson-Bogdanovic-Garnett-Lopez
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Jackson-Lamb-Thomas-Ibaka-Adams
| Brooklyn | Oklahoma City | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 188 |  | Vegas Total | 188 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.0 | Vegas Sprd | -1.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 93.75 | Team Proj. | 94.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.76 | Team Pace | 92.68 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Joe Johnson | Bojan Bogdanovic | Kevin Garnett | Brook Lopez | Proj Starter | Reggie Jackson | Jeremy Lamb | Lance Thomas | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | |
| Opp. Season | 23 | 17 | 6 | 8 | 24 | Opp. Season | 29 | 23 | 25 | 3 | 25 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 11 | 7 | 18 | 17 | Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 27 | 27 | 3 | 27 | |
Brooklyn
Oklahoma City is where fantasy production has gone to die recently. The Thunder are one of the slowest-paced teams in the league, averaging only 93 possessions per 48 minutes. They are also ranked in the top half of the league in both defensive efficiency and rebounding differential. The well-balanced Nets are already a tough team to target in daily fantasy basketball, and tonight’s matchup makes them an easy team to avoid altogether.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Deron Williams (FD: $7500, DK: $7600 / MPG: 38 / Usage Rate: 22.8)
Williams is a decent contrarian play tonight. He draws a good matchup against Reggie Jackson and the Thunder, who are ranked 23rd in fantasy points allowed to PGs this season. The issue is that there are better options for cash games at this price point, and there are also options with more upside.
Oklahoma City
If you look at the DvP rankings of the Nets, the Thunder get a green light tonight. The Nets are ranked 23rd or worse in fantasy points allowed to PGs, SGs, SFs, and centers. The Nets are ranked 20th in defensive efficiency and 17th in rebounding differential. This is an above-average matchup for the Thunder.
Elite Plays
Reggie Jackson (FD: $7900, DK: $7700 / MPG: 40 / Usage Rate: 26.6)
If you take exclude his game against the Jazz, Jackson has played at least 37 minutes and has scored at least 30 fantasy points in every single game this season. That’s a level of consistency that you aren’t going to find in many other players. With Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant out, Jackson has shouldered the load offensively with a 26.6 usage rate. The Nets are ranked 29th in fantasy points allowed to opposing PGs this season, making Jackson a top target at PG.
Secondary Plays
None
Cleveland at Washington
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -1.5, 205 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Marion-James-Love-Varejao
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
| Cleveland | Washington | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205 |  | Vegas Total | 205 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1.50 | Vegas Sprd | 1.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.25 | Team Proj. | 101.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.48 | Team Pace | 95.67 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | Shawn Marion | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Anderson Varejao | Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 13 | 17 | 5 | 7 | Opp. Season | 15 | 10 | 21 | 29 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 20 | 14 | 12 | 9 | Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 7 | 20 | 28 | 23 | |
Cleveland
The Cavaliers have dropped two in a row and are now .500 on the season. They come into tonight’s game as 1.5-point favorites against a very talented Wizards team. This matchup sets up much better for the Wizards than it does the Cavaliers. The Wizards have a top six defense that is holding opponents to 97.3 points per game. In terms of fantasy production, the Wizards are ranked 17th or better in fantasy points allowed to all five positions on the floor.
Elite Plays
LeBron James (FD: $10400, DK: $11100 / MPG: 39 / Usage Rate: 30.9)
James is matchup-proof and is in play tonight for a few reasons. First off, he’s been forced to take over games recently and he’s done a mighty fine job of it. Second, there is a ton of value out there tonight, which makes it easy to fit a superstar or two into your lineups. James is averaging 26 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists per game and should put up a similar stat line tonight.
Secondary Plays
Kyrie Irving (FD: $7900, DK: $8800 / MPG: 38 / Usage Rate: 23.6)
Irving his really picked up his play recently. Over his last five games, he is averaging 24 points, 4 rebounds, and 6 assists per game. His price on DK has reflected this, but his price on FD hasn’t been adjusted yet. Use him as a high-upside play in FD tournaments tonight.
Washington
The Wizards have to be excited for tonight’s game. Not only will they get a nice early test against the Cavaliers, but they can send a message to the entire Eastern Conference that they are a force to be reckoned with. This is a terrific fantasy matchup for the Wizards. The Cavaliers are too busy taking Benadryl on defense (as in they are allergic to defense, get it?). They are ranked 26th in defensive efficiency, giving up 103.1 points per game to opponents this season.
Elite Plays
John Wall (FD: $9100, DK: $9400 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 27.8)
Wall is off to a fantastic start this season, averaging 19 points, 4 rebounds, 9 assists, and 2 steals per game. A large portion of that production has come at home where he has posted terrific splits over the last few years. Wall has a high usage rate of 27.8 and a very favorable matchup against the Cavaliers. Wall should be able to get wherever he wants on the floor as Kyrie Irving is not an elite defender.
Secondary Plays
Nene Hilario (FD: $5900, DK: $5000 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 22)
Hilario is in the midst of a fantasy slump, but a matchup against the Cavalier could be just what he needs to get back on track. His price is down and the matchup is right. The Cavaliers are ranked 29th in fantasy points allowed to PFs this season.
Marcin Gortat (FD: $6800, DK: $6100 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 18.6)
The biggest knock that I have on Gortat is his playing time. He has only topped 30 minutes one time in his last six games. He should play well tonight, but it’s hard to pay up for a guy that usually sees 26-28 minutes per game.
Boston at Memphis
- Vegas Line – Memphis -6, 199 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Rondo-Bradley-Green-Sullinger-Olynyk
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee (?)-Allen (?)-Randolph-Gasol
| Boston | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.0 | Vegas Sprd | -6.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.5 | Team Proj. | 102.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.1 | Team Pace | 93.51 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Proj Starter | |||||||||||
| Opp. Season | 2 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 3 | Opp. Season | 24 | 12 | 12 | 30 | 2 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 22 | 2 | Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 3 | 10 | 27 | 16 | |
Boston
The Celtics find themselves in an unfriendly fantasy matchup. The Grizzlies are one of the slowest-paced teams in the league, averaging only 93.5 possessions per 48 minutes. They also own a top five defense and continue to climb up the rebouding differential charts. The Celtics are only projected to score 96.5 points tonight, which is a far cry from their season average of 106.8.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Jared Sullinger (FD: $7000, DK: $7200 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 22.1)
Sullinger is the one Celtics player that I would consider rostering tonight. He has the best matchup of the starter’s as he squares off against Zach Randoph, whose defensive inefficiencies are often hidden by the strong defense behind him. Sullinger has been on a tear over the last couple of weeks and is worth a look at PF tonight.
Memphis
Basically, the entire Grizzlies team has the flu, but it sounds like most of the Grizzlies will be back in action tonight. Quincy Pondexter and Jon Leuer are the only two that are expected to miss tonight’s game. In terms of the matchup, this is a favorable one. This will be a pace-up game for the Grizzlies. The Celtics are ranked 24th in defensive efficiency, giving up an average of 107.5 points per game this season.
Elite Plays
Zach Randolph (FD: $8000, DK: $7800 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 24.1)
Randolph’s price has slowly crept up, but he’s still very much in play on both FD and DK. On the season, he is averaging 17 points and 12 rebounds per game. He has had a double-double in six of his last ten games and is a good bet for another one tonight against the Celtics. The Celtics are currently ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed to opposing PFs.
Secondary Plays
Mike Conley (FD: $7200, DK: $7600 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 24.6)
Conley’s value does take a little hit with both Courtney Lee and Beno Udrih back, but he’s still a decent option tonight. He draws a favorable matchup against Rajon Rondo and the Celtics who are ranked 24th in fantasy points allowed to PGs.
Marc Gasol (FD: $8100, DK: $8200 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 24.5)
Gasol is always in play for cash games. He may not have the upside that you want to target for tournaments, but he has an extremely high floor thanks to his ability to fill up the stat sheet. He has a high usage rate of 24.5 and a decent matchup against Kelly Olynyk.
L.A. Lakers at Dallas
- Vegas Line – Dallas -9.5, 218.5 Over/Under
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Lin-Bryant-Johnson-Boozer-Hill
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Nelson-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
| L.A. Lakers | Dallas | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 218 |  | Vegas Total | 218 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.50 | Vegas Sprd | -9.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.5 | Team Proj. | 114 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.57 | Team Pace | 95.54 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeremy Lin | Kobe Bryant | Wesley Johnson | Carlos Boozer | Jordan Hill | Proj Starter | Jameer Nelson | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | |
| Opp. Season | 19 | 9 | 24 | 7 | 13 | Opp. Season | 30 | 22 | 14 | 25 | 10 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 14 | 30 | 1 | 26 | Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 19 | 26 | 23 | 5 | |
L.A. Lakers
Swaggy P (Nick Young) has taken over the town of L.A. If the Lakers can find a way to win again tonight, he may very well take over the entire NBA and the entire Twitter-verse. The Lakers will look for their third straight win tonight against the Mavericks. While I’d love for the story to stay alive, the Lakers are 9.5-point underdogs tonight against the Mavericks. The good news is that this should be one of the highest scoring games of the night.
Elite Plays
Kobe Bryant (FD: $9400, DK: $8900 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 37.3)
Bryant leads the NBA in two categories: usage rate and shots per game. Two stats that we love to see in daily fantasy basketball. Bryant has shed off all concerns about him being past his prime. I’m not sure I will be paying the $9,400 price tag on FD, but he could easily reach value on DK at only $8,900. As long as his usage rate is as high as it is, he will continue to be an elite fantasy option.
Carlos Boozer (FD: $6700, DK: $5800 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 22.5)
Don’t look now, but Boozer is actually playing some good basketball (well, offensively anyway). He has topped 25 fantasy points in five of his last six games and his price on DK has yet to reflect that. While the Mavericks are currently ranked 7th against PFs, Boozer should be able to exploit his mis-match against Dirk Nowitzki in the post.
Secondary Plays
Jordan Hill (FD: $6600, DK: $6400 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 20.4)
For a player that’s never been known as a scorer, it’s promising to see his usage rate at 20.4. Hill has scored at least 10 actual points in ten straight games and is averaging just under 10 rebounds per game. The matchup against Tyson Chandler is less than ideal though, which puts him as a secondary play, rather than an elite play.
Nick Young (FD: $5300, DK: $3600 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 21)
In his first two games back from injury, he has posted 25 fantasy points in each. He is seeing around 30 minutes of playing time and is one of the better pure-scorers in the NBA. He is an interesting value play tonight against the Mavericks, in what is expected to be a fast-paced, high-scoring game.
Dallas
The Mavericks are a lot like the Nets in that they have a great offense, but they have too many contributors. They are a tough team to predict on a nightly basis because they are so well-balanced offensively. They also have a strong bench that can turn ten-point leads into 20-point leads. The Mavericks do have a dream matchup tonight though. The Lakers are ranked dead last in both defensive efficiency and points allowed per game. Vegas has the Mavericks projected to score 114 points tonight.
Elite Plays
Chandler Parsons (FD: $6300, DK: $7100 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 20.7)
While a blowout is certainly possible again tonight, this is the perfect type of game for Parsons to excel in. Parsons is at his best in the open floor where he can either attack the rim or spot up from the three-point line. He has scored at least 26 fantasy points (FD scoring) in four of his last five games and should easily reach that mark tonight against the Lakers.
Secondary Plays
Monta Ellis (FD: $7400, DK: $8000 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 27.8)
Ellis has an elite matchup and an elite usage rate. The problem is that I don’t want to pay up for him in a game that could potentially turn into a blowout. For that reason, I will only be targeting him in GPP’s.
Dirk Nowitzki (FD: $7100, DK: $7300 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 26.6)
See: Monta Ellis description.
New Orleans at Denver
- Vegas Line – New Orleans -2, 213.5 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Gordon-Evans-Davis-Asik
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Afflalo-Chandler-Faried-Mozgov
| New Orleans | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213 |  | Vegas Total | 213 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 107.8 | Team Proj. | 105.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.67 | Team Pace | 98.88 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jrue Holiday | Eric Gordon | Tyreke Evans | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Arron Afflalo | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Timofey Mozgov | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 1 | 28 | 20 | 20 | Opp. Season | 14 | 5 | 30 | 19 | 14 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 4 | 24 | 12 | 4 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 6 | 28 | 11 | 20 | |
New Orleans
If the playoffs started today, the Pelicans would be in the eighth seed. They are a talented, young team that is only going to get better and better (assuming they stay healthy). Tonight they square off against the fast-paced Nuggets in a game that has one of the highest totals of the night. The Nuggets are ranked 25th in defensive efficiency and have given up an average of 106.5 points per game to their opponents. As Al Smizzle would say, give me ALL the Brow and Reke tonight.
Elite Plays
Anthony Davis (FD: $11800, DK: $11300 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 26)
Every time Anthony Davis is in the player pool, you have to consider using him in both cash games and GPP’s. He has upside of around 70 fantasy points and his floor this season has been around 40 fantasy points. Even if you are not getting 5x salary type of production out of him, he’s easily the most reliable superstar when it comes to fantasy production. He draws a great matchup against the Nuggets who do not defend the paint or rebound well. Even at his price, he should be one of the most popular cash game plays tonight.
Tyreke Evans (FD: $7600, DK: $7400 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 25.8)
Even though Jrue Holiday is listed as the Pelicans’ PG, Evans is the primary play-maker in this offense. He has a much higher usage rate than Holiday, and he’s able to fill up all areas of the stat sheet which makes him a player with a high floor and a high ceiling. Evans is averaging 16 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists per game this season. He should have his fingerprints all over tonight’s game against the Nuggets.
Secondary Plays
Ryan Anderson (FD: $6000, DK: $5900 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 24.4)
Anderson is a sneaky GPP play tonight. Omer Asik could end up sitting out another game tonight, which would likely result in 30+ minutes for Anderson off the bench. I’ll take that every day of the week against a defense that has a bad habit of leaving shooters open.
Denver
I could basically sum up the Nuggets fantasy situation in one sentence. Target Ty Lawson and avoid the rest of the team. Lawson has been the one bright spot on this team this season. Arron Afflalo has played better in recent games, but there are much safer plays on the board tonight.
Elite Plays
Ty Lawson (FD: $8200, DK: $8500 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 22.1)
After a slow start to the season, Lawson has really picked up his play on offense. Over his last six games, he is averaging 20 points, 3 rebounds, and 10 assists per game. His usage rate has also come up during that stretch of games. He’s really the only Nuggets player that should be on your radar tonight.
Secondary Plays
None