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NBA Grind Down Friday, November 28th - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-11-28 21:52:30

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Orlando at Indiana

Orlando Indiana
orlandonba Vegas Total 191 indiananba Vegas Total 191
Vegas Sprd 5.00 Vegas Sprd -5.00
Team Proj. 93.25 Team Proj. 98.25
Team Pace 95.44 Team Pace 92.99
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Victor Oladipo Evan Fournier Tobias Harris Channing Frye Nikola Vucevic Proj Starter Donald Sloan Rodney Stuckey Solomon Hill Luis Scola Ian Mahinmi
Opp. Season 20 28 4 3 30 Opp. Season 19 24 20 13 29
Opp. Last 7 14 19 16 29 4 Opp. Last 7 30 5 30 5 26

Orlando

The Magic draw a tough fantasy matchup tonight against the Pacers. Not only do they play at an extremely slow pace (93.0 possessions per 48 minutes), but they have also been solid defensively. The Pacers are ranked 11th in defensive efficiency, holding opponents to 95.2 points per game.

Elite Plays

Nikola Vucevic (FD: $8900, DK: $8800 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 25.5)

Vucevic has been Mr. Double-Double this season. He is averaging 19 points, 12 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. He has a high usage rate on a team that is trying to develop it’s young players. Basically, Vucevic is going to continue to be a dominant fantasy basketball player. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Pacers, who are currently extremely thin in their frontcourt.

Secondary Plays

Tobias Harris (FD: $7200, DK: $7000 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 23.6)

After missing two games with an injury, Harris picked up right where he left off with 16 points and 10 rebounds against the Warriors. He is not listed on the injury report and should be considered 100% healthy. He has had a terrific season, averaging 19 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. He’s in play at SF tonight, which can be a tough position to fill.

Indiana

The Pacers are hoping to have some of their stud players back in the lineup tonight. Both C.J. Watson and David West are expected to start tonight against the Magic. Roy Hibbert and George Hill have both been ruled out tonight. While Watson and West are both expected to play, they will likely ease them back into action. They can be avoided for fantasy purposed for the first couple of games.

Elite Plays

Ian Mahinmi (FD: $3900, DK: $3800 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 13.5)

Mahinmi will draw another start at center tonight. In his two starts in Hibbert’s absence, he has average 25 minutes and 18 fantasy points per game. He should see around 25 minutes again tonight, even with David West back in the lineup. If you are looking to save some salary cap at center, Mahinmi is a decent value play.

Secondary Plays

Rodney Stuckey (FD: $4900, DK: $4100 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 28.8)

Stuckey is finally off of his minutes limit and it’s no surprise that he has had his two best games of the season in his last two outings. He scored 24 fantasy points in 32 minutes against the Mavericks and followed it up with 35 fantasy points in 35 minutes against the Spurs. This may be the last night to take him at this discounted price.

New York at Oklahoma City

New York Oklahoma City
newyorknba Vegas Total 187.0 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 187.0
Vegas Sprd 6.5 Vegas Sprd -6.5
Team Proj. 90.25 Team Proj. 96.75
Team Pace 92.11 Team Pace 93.17
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Jose Calderon Iman Shumpert J.R. Smith Quincy Acy Samuel Dalembert Proj Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Lance Thomas Serge Ibaka Steven Adams
Opp. Season 18 15 3 5 19 Opp. Season 2 25 6 27 10
Opp. Last 7 11 17 7 8 7 Opp. Last 7 1 23 15 24 27

New York

Carmelo Anthony is doubtful for tonight’s game. J.R. Smith will start in his place, but the Knicks offense will likely struggle to score without their superstar. Tonight they head to Oklahoma City to take on a Thunder team that has been a black hole for fantasy production. The Thunder play at a slow pace (93.2 possessions per 48 minutes) and are ranked 9th in defensive efficiency.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Iman Shumpert (FD: $5600, DK: $5000 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 20.6)

Even with Carmelo Anthony out, there aren’t any must plays on the Knicks. They are only projected to score 90 points tonight. If you are looking for a tournament play, Shumpert could make a nice upside play though. He has 30+ fantasy point upside and should be asked to shoulder some of the load offensively.

J.R. Smith (FD: $5900, DK: $5900 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 22.1)

Smith was a bit of a disappointment in his start the other night. Despite playing 36 minutes, he only finished with 21 fantasy points. He’ll draw another start tonight. His price has come up, but he is still in play for tournaments, as there should be plenty of shots to go around with Anthony out of the lineup.

Oklahoma City

There were rumblings that Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook would both be in the starting lineup tonight, but Thunder fans will have to settle for one of the two. Russell Westbrook will be back in the starting lineup which will send fantasy-favorite Reggie Jackson back to the bench. Jackson should still have a big role in this offense, but he’s currently priced as a starter that is averaging 39 minutes per game. In terms of the matchup, this is a favorable one. While the Knicks do play at a slow pace, they have struggled defensively, ranking 27th in defensive efficiency this season.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Serge Ibaka (FD: $7700, DK: $7100 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 23.1)

Ibaka has been off of most people’s fantasy radar for a while now, but he has actually played really well over his last four games. During that stretch, he is averaging 19 points, 10 rebounds, and 3 blocks per game. His price on FD has slowly crept up, but he is currently only $7,100 on DK. Under a 5x salary value system, he would only need 35.5 fantasy points to reach value. He’s more than capable of that tonight against the Knicks.

Sacramento at San Antonio

Sacramento San Antonio
sacramentonba Vegas Total 194.0 sanantonionba Vegas Total 194.0
Vegas Sprd 8.0 Vegas Sprd -8.0
Team Proj. 93.0 Team Proj. 101.0
Team Pace 95.78 Team Pace 95.89
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Darren Collison Ben McLemore Rudy Gay Jason Thompson DeMarcus Cousins Proj Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard Tim Duncan Boris Diaw
Opp. Season 7 3 17 24 4 Opp. Season 23 10 14 26 8
Opp. Last 7 12 15 28 15 1 Opp. Last 7 2 27 27 25 8

Sacramento

Rudy Gay and Darren Collison are both questionable for tonight’s game against the Spurs. They are likely headed for game-time decisions, which means we are going to have to wait to find out if Ramon Sessions and Omri Casspi are viable fantasy options tonight. Obviously, if Gay and Collison are ruled out, both would make great value plays tonight. Check the injury news throughout the day and adjust your lineups accordingly.

Elite Plays

Omri Casspi (FD: $4200, DK: $5000 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 17.9)

If, and only if, Rudy Gay is ruled out.

Ramon Sessions (FD: $4300, DK: $4700 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 20.3)

If, and only if, Darren Collison is ruled out.

Secondary Plays

Editor’s Note: Cousins (illness) is considered doubtful for tonight

DeMarcus Cousins (FD: $10200, DK: $10600 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 32.9)

Cousins has been on a tear through the NBA recently. Over his last five games, he is averaging 26 points, 16 rebounds, and 4 assists per game. Cousins is also good for a few blocks/steals per game as well. There are two things holding him back from being an elite play tonight: his high price tag and his matchup against the Spurs, who have been very stingy against opposing centers this season.

San Antonio

The Spurs are 8-point favorites tonight against the Kings in a game that features a total of 194 points. Luckily for us, the Spurs do not play tomorrow night, so we can expect the starters to see a full complement of minutes. They are still the Spurs though and this game does have the potential to turn into a blowout, especially if Darren Collison and Rudy Gay sit out. As usual, tread lightly with the Spurs tonight.

Elite Plays

Kawhi Leonard (FD: $6800, DK: $7000 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.4)

Leonard has been one of the only Spurs players that I have targeted this season. His minutes have been relatively consistent and his usage rate of 22.4 is certainly attractive in daily fantasy. Leonard is fairly priced on both FD and DK and he has topped 29 fantasy points in seven of his last ten games.

Secondary Plays

Boris Diaw (FD: $4700, DK: $5100 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 16.5)

Even though Diaw has had a couple of subpar fantasy outings in a row, his minutes are still way up with Tiago Splitter out. Diaw has played at least 33 minutes in three of his last four games. Diaw may not be the most exciting player to watch, but he’s very productive on the floor, especially in terms of fantasy basketball. He fills up the stat sheet and offers good value tonight against the Kings.

Phoenix at Denver

Phoenix Denver
phoenixnba Vegas Total 219 denvernba Vegas Total 219
Vegas Sprd 2.5 Vegas Sprd -2.5
Team Proj. 108.5 Team Proj. 111.0
Team Pace 98.76 Team Pace 98.83
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Eric Bledsoe Goran Dragic Marcus Morris Markieff Morris Miles Plumlee Proj Starter Ty Lawson Arron Afflalo Wilson Chandler Kenneth Faried Timofey Mozgov
Opp. Season 13 4 26 28 13 Opp. Season 25 18 2 21 16
Opp. Last 7 6 22 8 28 6 Opp. Last 7 7 16 14 12 18

Phoenix

This is the game that I am most excited to see on the schedule. These teams played in Phoenix on Wednesday night and combined for 132 points. Vegas has the total for tonight’s game set at 219 points, which is easily the highest total of the night. These teams both love to push the pace and neither team is very efficient offensively. This game should be a fantasy gold mine.

Elite Plays

Eric Bledsoe (FD: $7000, DK: $7700 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.7)

Bledsoe is finally starting to live up to his lofty expectations. Over his last two games, he has scored 40 and 47 fantasy points. One of those games was against tonight’s opponent, the Denver Nuggets. While Arron Afflalo is a good on-ball defender, Bledoe was much too quick for him the other night, as he finished with 21 points and 10 assists. Expect another big outing tonight against the uptempo Nuggets.

Markieff Morris (FD: $6800, DK: $6700 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.1)

Morris made a lot of fantasy owners extremely happy on Wednesday night with his 48.5 fantasy point performance against the Nuggets. Now he gets to turn around and face them again tonight. These are two of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA, and Vegas has this game pegged as the highest scoring one of the night. The Nuggets have not defended opposing big men well this season. At his price, he should be one of the top plays at PF.

Secondary Plays

None

Denver

As mentioned above, this is a terrific game to target tonight. The Suns love to push the pace as much as they Nuggets do. This game should be the highest scoring game of the night. There is typically only one option that is worth targeting on the Nuggets, but tonight is an exception, as the matchup is just too good to ignore.

Elite Plays

Ty Lawson (FD: $8500, DK: $8600 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 22.3)

Lawson has been on an incredible tear over the last couple of weeks. Over his last six games, he is averaging 18 points, 3 rebounds, and 13 assists per game. The Nuggets and Suns square off in a re-match from Wednesday night. In that contest, Lawson put up 45.4 fantasy points. This game features the highest of the night. The Suns couldn’t contain Lawson the other night, and should have a tough time defending him again tonight.

Wilson Chandler (FD: $5600, DK: $5800 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 19.6)

I’m not sure I was able to say this one time last season, but Chandler has been a very consistent fantasy option. He has scored at least 21 fantasy points in each of his last nine games. At his price, he basically needs around 27 fantasy points to reach value, which he is more than capable of doing. He has 30 fantasy points against the Suns on Wednesday night.

Secondary Plays

Timofey Mozgov (FD: $4900, DK: $5700 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 17.5)

Mozgov is typically though of as a GPP-only play. While that may have been trust to start the season, it has more to do with his playing time than it has his play on the floor. Mozgov has now topped 26 minutes in each of his last six games. He draws a nice matchup against the Suns, who he put up 18 points and 13 rebounds against the other night. He should be able to reach and exceed value on FD tonight.

Memphis at Portland

Memphis Portland
memphisnba Vegas Total 193.5 portlandnba Vegas Total 193.5
Vegas Sprd 3.5 Vegas Sprd -3.5
Team Proj. 95.00 Team Proj. 98.5
Team Pace 94.26 Team Pace 96.18
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Mike Conley Courtney Lee Tony Allen Zach Randolph Marc Gasol Proj Starter Damian Lillard Wesley Matthews Nicolas Batum LaMarcus Aldridge Robin Lopez
Opp. Season 22 2 18 2 23 Opp. Season 4 5 9 14 3
Opp. Last 7 19 12 13 3 30 Opp. Last 7 16 7 9 9 14

Memphis

The Grizzlies head to Portland to take on the Blazers in a game that will be easy to fade altogether tonight. Vegas has the Grizzlies listed as 3.5-point underdogs in a game that features a total of only 193.5 points. The Blazers have been a tough fantasy matchup for opponents this season, ranking 6th in defensive efficiency and 2nd in rebounding differential. Fantasy options are few and far between in this one.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Marc Gasol (FD: $8500, DK: $8700 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.5)

Gasol has been on a hot stretch over his last four games. He is averaging 26 points, 11 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 steals per game. He draws a nice matchup tonight against the Blazers, who are ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed to centers over the last seven days. The biggest issue that I have with Gasol tonight is his hefty price tag.

Courtney Lee (FD: $5200, DK: $4300 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 15.6)

Even though Lee plays on the slow-paced Grizzlies, he has been a very reliable fantasy option this season. He has basically been a lock for 20+ fantasy points, regardless of matchup. I wouldn’t recommend him on FD, but he is considerably under-priced tonight on DK.

Portland

The Blazers have the unfortunate task of facing the Grizzlies tonight. Unless it’s a small slate of games, I typically do my best to avoid taking players against the Grizzlies. They are ranked 4th in defensive efficiency and 5th in rebounding differential. They also average only 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes, which limits the number of possessions an opponent has against them. If you absolutely must have some exposure to the Blazers, LaMarcus Aldridge has the best one-on-one matchup.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

None

NBA Grind Down Page 2 – Page 3

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious