NBA Grind Down Friday, November 7th - Page Two
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New York at Brooklyn
- Vegas Line – Brooklyn -5.5, 192.5 Over/Under
- New York Proj. Starters – Shane Larkin-Iman Shumpert-Carmelo Anthony-Amare Stoudemire-Samuel Dalembert
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Deron Williams-Joe Johnson-Bojan Bogdanovic-Kevin Garnett-Brook Lopez
| New York | Brooklyn | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | 192 | ||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | ||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | 99.00 | ||||||||||
| Team Pace | 88.61 | Team Pace | 94.71 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Proj Starter | |||||||||||
| Opp. Season | 29 | 4 | 15 | 12 | 21 | Opp. Season | 15 | 8 | 8 | 26 | 5 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 13 | 5 | 20 | 9 | Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 14 | 9 | 18 | 20 | |
New York
This is one of those games that you may just want to skip over. Both of these teams play at an extremely slow pace and the total is set at only 192 points. The Knicks have had a tough time getting the triangle offense figured out. They are ranked 20th in offensive efficiency while only averaging 89.8 points per game which is the lowest of any team in the league. At this point, there just aren’t enough shots to go around in this offense.
Prime Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
NONE
Brooklyn
The Nets are 2-2 to start the season, but they’ve been very good offensively. They are averaging 103.5 points per game and are ranked fifth in offensive efficiency. Tonight they face a Knicks team that is ranked 26th in defensive efficiency. The Knicks are also ranked 24th in rebounding differential. Even though this will be a slow-paced game, the matchup is still favorable for the Nets.
Prime Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Joe Johnson – Johnson has gotten off to a quick start this season. He is averaging 22 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists per game. The most impressive stat is that he has a team-high usage rate of 26.4 which is actually considerably higher than Deron Williams’ usage rate.
Brook Lopez – I mentioned last week that Lopez would be someone to keep your eye on and that as soon as he saw a full complement of minutes, it would be wise to target him. Lopez played 34 minutes in the Nets last game and appears to be free of any minute-restriction. I like him as a tournament play tonight against the Knicks.
Washington at Toronto
- Vegas Line – Toronto -4, 191.5 Over/Under
- Washington Proj. Starters – John Wall-Garrett Temple-Paul Pierce-Nene Hilario-Marcin Gortat
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Kyle Lowry-DeMar DeRozan-Terrence Ross-Amir Johnson-Jonas Valanciunas
| Washington | Toronto | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 191 |  | Vegas Total | 191 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.00 | Vegas Sprd | -4.00 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 93.75 | Team Proj. | 97.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.29 | Team Pace | 96.59 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | John Wall | Garrett Temple | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | Terrence Ross | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 26 | 6 | 19 | 4 | 27 | Opp. Season | 2 | 20 | 23 | 1 | 23 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 28 | Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 19 | 26 | 7 | 17 | |
Washington
The Wizards are 4-1 to start the season and sit atop the standings in the Eastern Conference. They are a well-balanced team that is above average in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Arguably, their one weakness this season has been rebounding as they have a -5.6 rebounding differential per game. Tonight the Wizards head to Toronto to take on the Raptors. The plays on the Wizards hinge on the health of both Amir Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas. If they are forced to miss tonight’s game, it may not be a bad idea to take both of the Wizards bigs against the Raptors depleted frontcourt.
Prime Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
John Wall – Wall tends to get overlooked for some of the bigger names at PG, but he is an elite PG posting elite numbers. On the season, he is averaging 21 points, 4 rebounds, and 10 assists per game. He is ranked third among active PGs with a usage rate of 28.7. The only thing holding him back from being an elite play tonight is his matchup against Kyle Lowry.
Garrett Temple – Temple continues to fly under the radar at SG, but there’s really no reason for it. Through the first five games of the season, he is averaging 35 minutes, 14 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. He’s a solid value play at PG/SG tonight.
Nene Hilario / Marcin Gortat – Both should see a small boost if Amir Johnson and/or Jonas Valanciunas have to sit out tonight. Check for an update closer to tip-off and adjust accordingly.
Toronto
Amir Johnson (ankle) and Jonas Valanciunas (hand, face) are both headed for game-time decisions tonight against the Wizards. It’s hard to break down the Raptors until we know their status, but Patrick Patterson would likely get the start if either Johnson or Valanciunas were forced to sit. Tyler Hansbrough would start alongside Patterson if both had to sit. In terms of the matchup, it leaves much to be desired. The Wizards are ranked 8th in defensive efficiency and have held their opponents to 95.8 points per game this season.
Prime Plays
DeMar DeRozan – Contrary to popular belief, DeRozan actually has a much higher usage rate than Kyle Lowry. DeRozan’s usage rate of 29.5 is the ninth highest of any player in the NBA. It’s higher than the usage rate of John Wall, Blake Griffin, and even LeBron James. DeRozan is a very consistent scorer which makes gives him a high floor. He’s a great target tonight if you are looking to spend up at the SG position.
Secondary Plays
Kyle Lowry – Lowry’s ability to fill up the stat sheet puts him in play every night. He is averaging 19 points, 4 rebounds, and 5 assists per game, but he does draw a tough matchup against John Wall and the Wizards who are ranked second against opposing PGs this season.
Patrick Patterson / Tyler Hansbrough – Both are in play depending on the availability of Amir Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas. Patterson is the preferred play of the two.
Memphis at Oklahoma City
- Vegas Line – Memphis -7, 183.5 Over/Under
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Mike Conley-Courtney Lee-Tony Allen-Zach Randolph-Marc Gasol
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Reggie Jackson-Perry Jones-Lance Thomas-Serge Ibaka-Steven Adams
| Memphis | Oklahoma City | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 183 |  | Vegas Total | 183 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -7 | Vegas Sprd | 7 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.25 | Team Proj. | 88.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.57 | Team Pace | 95.64 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Proj Starter | |||||||||||
| Opp. Season | 21 | 15 | 10 | 14 | 16 | Opp. Season | 6 | 3 | 22 | 8 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 18 | 13 | 17 | 10 | Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 8 | 6 | |
Memphis
The Grizzlies are one three undefeated teams remaining in the NBA. They are off to a quick start thanks to their play on the defensive end of the floor. They are ranked second in defensive efficiency and have held opponents to a league-leading average of 86.2 points. The issue with the Grizzlies is that they are a well-balanced offense that likes to slow the pace of the game down. Two things that we don’t necessarily like to see in daily fantasy basketball. Tonight’s game against the Thunder has the lowest total of the night.
Prime Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Courtney Lee – You can easily avoid the Grizzlies altogether. Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol are both in tough matchups and there are better options at PG than Mike Conley. That said, if you want some exposure to the Grizzlies, Lee is a solid value play at SG. He’s coming off of a strong outing against the Suns in which he saw 39 minutes of action.
Oklahoma City
My general rule of thumb is to avoid the team that is facing the Grizzlies. As mentioned above, they are one of, if not the best defense in the NBA. They are also one of the slowest-paced teams in the league averaging only 94.5 possessions per 48 minutes. With a total of 183 points, I wouldn’t blame you for fading this game altogether, but there is one play that stands out here. One injury note: Jeremy Lamb is expected to make his season debut tonight. Keep an eye on his minutes as he will be a viable fantasy option moving forward.
Prime Plays
Reggie Jackson – The matchup against the Grizzlies is less than ideal, but the combination of his cheap price and his usage rate is too good to pass up. Jackson has taken over the Russell Westbrook role in this offense and in the first two games he has had a usage rate of 27.9 which is the 15th highest of any player in the NBA. He should continue to see around 40 minutes of action per game and he should lead the Thunder in shot attempts as well.
Secondary Plays
NONE
Sacramento at Phoenix
- Vegas Line – Phoenix -4.5, 207.5 Over/Under
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Darren Collison-Ben McLemore-Rudy Gay-Jason Thompson-DeMarcus Cousins
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Goran Dragic-Eric Bledsoe-Marcus Morris-Markieff Morris-Miles Plumlee
| Sacramento | Phoenix | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207 |  | Vegas Total | 207 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.50 | Vegas Sprd | -4.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.5 | Team Proj. | 106 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.65 | Team Pace | 98.1 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Darren Collison | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Jason Thompson | DeMarcus Cousins | Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Eric Bledsoe | Marcus Morris | Markieff Morris | Miles Plumlee | |
| Opp. Season | 19 | 28 | 1 | 30 | 2 | Opp. Season | 25 | 5 | 16 | 7 | 24 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 26 | 3 | 30 | 2 | Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 25 | |
Sacramento
The Kings look like a changed team this season. They have kept their fast pace of play, but are ranked in the top ten in defensive efficiency. Yes, you read that right, the Kings are ranked in the top ten of a defensive statistic! They have opened the season 4-1 and will look to add another win to their total as they take on the Suns in Phoenix. The Kings are currently 4.5-point underdogs in a game that is tied for the highest total of the night at 207 points.
Prime Plays
DeMarcus Cousins – Did anyone else have to do a double-take when they were looking through the box scores on Wednesday night? Cousins put up 30 points and 11 rebounds which is another day in the park for Cousins, but he did it in only 22 minutes. When his mind is right, he’s one of the most dominant players in the league. He seems happy for the first time in a long time and draws a nice matchup against the Suns who have given up the seventh most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.
Secondary Plays
Darren Collison – Darren “Cash-Game” Collison is his new nickname. He has made the most of his opportunity in Sacramento by averaging 15 points, 4 rebounds, 7 assists, and 2 steals in the first five games of the season. He should post a similar stat line tonight against the Suns who have struggled with opposing PGs this season.
Rudy Gay – It may take an injury to one of the Kings big three before we see another Kings player listed as a suggested fantasy play. Gay is off to a hot start this season, but you’ll have to pay up for him in a tough matchup.
Phoenix
The Suns may have the best 4-man guard rotation in the NBA with Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe, Isaiah Thomas, and Gerald Green. They also have one of the most underrated coaches in Jeff Hornacek. Tonight they face the Kings in what should be a fast-paced, high scoring game. This is one of those games that should be full of fantasy goodness as long as it stays close. I’m leaning toward playing the guards here as the Kings have the league’s best rebounding differential per game at +8.8.
Prime Plays
Eric Bledsoe – Bledsoe has been inconsistent this season, but don’t lose faith in him as a cash game option. When he was healthy last season, he had a very high floor thanks to his ability to contribute in all statistical categories. Bledsoe’s salary on FanDuel and DraftKings has come down which only adds to his fantasy appeal. He should excel in an uptempo game against the Kings.
Secondary Plays
Markieff Morris – Again, the Kings are a great rebounding team, but Morris has been playing too good to completely ignore him tonight. I’ll be using him sparingly across my tournament lineups.
Dallas at Utah
- Vegas Line – Dallas -3, 207 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Nelson-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
- Utah Proj. Starters – Trey Burke-Alec Burks-Gordon Hayward-Derrick Favors-Enes Kanter
| Dallas | Utah | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207 |  | Vegas Total | 207 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 105.0 | Team Proj. | 102.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.49 | Team Pace | 94.86 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jameer Nelson | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | Proj Starter | Trey Burke | Alec Burks | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Enes Kanter | |
| Opp. Season | 18 | 9 | 28 | 18 | 4 | Opp. Season | 28 | 10 | 11 | 21 | 3 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 9 | 17 | 19 | 3 | Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 1 | 28 | 15 | 15 | |
Dallas
The Mavericks are quickly becoming one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule. The combined score in Mavericks games this season is 211 points which is the second highest in the NBA. They are a fast-paced team that is ranked 29th in defensive efficiency. That’s going to lead to a lot of high scoring games. To further prove my point, look at the total for tonight’s game against the Jazz. It’s set at 207 (tied for the highest of the night) despite the Jazz being one of the slowest-paced teams in the league.
Prime Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Chandler Parsons – If you throw out his first game with the team as well as last night’s blowout, Parsons is averaging 23 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. His price has come down a bit which presents us with a nice buy-low opportunity.
Monta Ellis – Ellis continues to run the offense when Jameer Nelson is in the game. He’s played well this season and is one of the better overall SG options tonight. His usage rate on the season is 25.4 and he should have his fingerprints all over this game.
Devin Harris – Revenge game! I suppose Harris has quite a few of those now-a-days, but he did play for the Jazz at one point in his career. Even though Harris is not the starter, he’s been the more effective PG this season averaging 12 points and 5 assists per game.
Utah
The Jazz are coming off of their best win in years as Gordon Hayward hit a buzzer-beater against the Cavs. The Jazz are now 2-3 on the season. The Jazz are not going to fare well on the road, but they will be very competitive at home and I’m expecting that tonight against the Mavericks. Vegas agrees with me as the Jazz are only 3-point underdogs. As I mentioned above, the Mavericks have been awful defensively this season so don’t be afraid to target a Jazz player or two.
Prime Plays
Derrick Favors – Favors has posted great numbers to start the season by averaging 18 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 blocks per game. It’s amazing what a full complement of minutes will do for a young player’s confidence. Favors draws a prime matchup tonight against the Mavericks who have the sixth worst rebounding differential this season.
Enes Kanter – Kanter has bounced back nicely over his last two games averaging 18 points and 7 rebounds. Sites have yet to adjust his price. With a good matchup against a bad rebounding team, Kanter the leading value play at center.
Secondary Plays
Gordon Hayward – Hayward is quickly paying the Jazz back after they made a long-term investment in him in the offseason. In addition to the buzzer-beater, he is averaging 19 points, 7 rebounds, and 6 assists per game.