NBA Grind Down Monday, December 22nd - Page Two
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L.A. Clippers at San Antonio
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -1.5, 201 Over/Under
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Joseph-Green-Anderson-Duncan-Bonner
| L.A. Clippers | San Antonio | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201 |  | Vegas Total | 201 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.3 | Team Proj. | 99.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.32 | Team Pace | 95.03 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | Proj Starter | Cory Joseph | Danny Green | Kyle Anderson | Tim Duncan | Matt Bonner | |
| Opp. Season | 10 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 14 | Opp. Season | 1 | 22 | 10 | 15 | 19 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 17 | 5 | 15 | 27 | Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 21 | 8 | 23 | 17 | |
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers travel to San Antonio to take on the defending-Champion Spurs tonight. Vegas has this game close to a pick ‘em and we should see a very competitive game between two of the best teams in the Western Conference. On paper, this is a tough matchup for the Clippers. The Spurs are one of the slowest-paced teams in the NBA and they are holding opponents to an average of 97.5 points per game.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Chris Paul (FD: $10300, DK: $10300 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 22.3)
Despite scoring at least 47 fantasy points in each of his last three games, Paul’s price hasn’t budged. He is still listed at $10,300 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. While I like Paul tonight, I don’t love him against the Spurs. Coach Popovich is a master at slowing down his opponent’s best player. While Paul is certainly in play tonight, I’d rather pay up a bit for Stephen Curry, or take a small discount and take Kemba Walker.
Blake Griffin (FD: $10200, DK: $11000 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 30.5)
When these two teams met up earlier in the season, Griffin had 23 points, 10 rebounds, and 6 assists. He should be in for another productive outing tonight, but it’s going to be hard for him to pay off that expensive salary. The Clippers are only projected to score 101 points, which is a full five points lower than their season average.
San Antonio
Tony Parker had been ruled out earlier, but has now been upgraded to questionable for tonight’s game against the Clippers. Kawhi Leonard is not expected to play, which means Kyle Anderson will likely draw another start at small forward. Tonight’s matchup against the Clippers is average in terms of potential fantasy production. The Clippers play at a fast pace, they are ranked 15th in defensive efficiency, and they are ranked 18th in rebounding differential. While I don’t mind the matchup for Tim Duncan, I will not be paying a premium for him tonight against the Clippers.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Cory Joseph (FD: $5100, DK: $5200 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 17.6)
Tony Parker is questionable for tonight’s game against the Clippers. If he is forced to sit, Joseph would draw another start at point guard. In nine starts this season, Joseph is averaging 12 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists per game. He’s been a serviceable value play in Parker’s absence. That should continue tonight, even in a tough matchup against Chris Paul. At his price point, he only needs to score around 25 fantasy points to reach value tonight.
Kyle Anderson (FD: $3700, DK: $4200 / MPG: 16 / Usage Rate: 13)
Anderson will likely draw the start at small forward again tonight with Kawhi Leonard out. Over his last four games, Anderson is averaging 18.5 fantasy points per game. While that doesn’t necessarily jump off of the page, Anderson is a viable value play tonight against the Clippers.
Sacramento at Golden State
- Vegas Line – Golden State -12, 210.5 Over/Under
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Collison-McLemore-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Ezeli
| Sacramento | Golden State | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210.5 |  | Vegas Total | 210.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 12.00 | Vegas Sprd | -12.00 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.25 | Team Proj. | 111.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.98 | Team Pace | 100.51 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Darren Collison | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Jason Thompson | DeMarcus Cousins | Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Festus Ezeli | |
| Opp. Season | 23 | 20 | 17 | 19 | 1 | Opp. Season | 11 | 27 | 7 | 29 | 4 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 4 | 30 | 7 | 16 | Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 29 | 20 | 3 | 5 | |
Sacramento
The Kings travel to Oakland to take on a very talented Warriors team. The Warriors are 9-1 at home this season and have the best overall record in the entire NBA. Vegas has the Kings listed as 12-point underdogs in this one. The good news is that the total is set at 210 points, which is the highest total of any game on the schedule tonight. On paper, this is not a great matchup. The Warriors are ranked first in defensive efficiency, holding opponents to 97.6 points per game this season.
Elite Plays
DeMarcus Cousins (FD: $10100, DK: $10400 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 32.9)
Many expected Cousins to be eased back into action after missing so many games with an illness. Cousins had other plans. After putting up 43 fantasy points in 33 minutes against the Bucks, he backed it up with 57 fantasy points in 37 minutes against the Lakers. At this point, we have to consider Cousins 100% healthy. A fully healthy Cousins is a scary thing for his opponents, as he can truly take over a game. Cousins is easily the top center on the board tonight, as he squares off against the Warriors who will be without Andrew Bogut.
Secondary Plays
Darren Collison (FD: $7500, DK: $6600 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 21.7)
Collison has had a rough four game stretch, but he was playing at a very high level prior to that. On the season, he is averaging 16 points, 3 rebounds, and 6 assists per game. His price on DraftKings is more than reasonable at $6,600. Tonight he squares off against Stephen Curry and the Warriors, who are ranked 23rd in fantasy point allowed to opposing point guards.
Golden State
The Warriors are projected to score 111 points tonight, which is easily the highest team total on the board. They have been terrific at home this season, which should continue tonight against the Kings. David Lee is expected to play tonight, but is going to be limited to 10-12 minutes of action. With Andrew Bogut still out, Draymond Green and Marreese Speights will continue to see a fantasy boost in his absence.
Elite Plays
Stephen Curry (FD: $10500, DK: $10700 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 28.7)
Curry is having another terrific season, averaging 24 points, 5 rebounds, and 8 assists per game. He has one of the highest usage rates in the NBA and can put up fantasy points in a hurry. Even though Darren Collison is thought of as a top defender, the Kings are actually ranked 24th in fantasy points allowed to opposing point guards if you look at it on a per-48 minutes basis. The Warriors are projected to score 111 point tonight and Curry will be heavily involved in that production.
Klay Thompson (FD: $7900, DK: $7600 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 26.6)
Thompson is right there with Jimmy Butler as my favorite shooting guard tonight. He has established himself as an elite scorer in the NBA and his peripheral stats are a little better than he’s given credit for. On the season, he is averaging 22 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. He draws an extremely favorable matchup tonight against the Kings, who have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to shooting guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Draymond Green (FD: $7800, DK: $7500 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 17.8)
Even though David Lee is expected to play tonight, it will not impact Green’s fantasy production. Lee is likely to play 10-12 minutes, plus the Warriors will still be without Andrew Bogut. Green has been on a tear recently, averaging 14 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 blocks per game over his last seven.