NBA Grind Down: Saturday, November 22nd - Page Two
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Sacramento at Minnesota
- Vegas Line – Sacramento -8.5, 210 Over/Under
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Collison-McLemore-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Williams-Brewer-Wiggins-Bennett-Dieng
| Sacramento | Minnesota | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210 |  | Vegas Total | 210 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 109.25 | Team Proj. | 100.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.67 | Team Pace | 98.32 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Darren Collison | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Jason Thompson | DeMarcus Cousins | Proj Starter | Mo Williams | Corey Brewer | Andrew Wiggins | Anthony Bennett | Gorgui Dieng | |
| Opp. Season | 4 | 18 | 27 | 23 | 8 | Opp. Season | 27 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 11 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 11 | 29 | 23 | 4 | Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 23 | 10 | 27 | 1 | |
Sacramento
The Kings look to be at full strength against Minnesota tonight. Rudy Gay, Jason Thompson and DeMarcus Cousins have all been dealing with minor injuries that they played through on Thursday. The Kings take a league-high 33.9 free throws per game, and trail only the Suns with a percentage made of 80.6%. Cousins and Gay do a great job of working together to share the offensive load, and the team as a whole plays great defense. Because of their faster pace of play, a lot of people wouldn’t guess that that the Kings are tied with Memphis in Opponent Field Goal Percentage, but they are.
Elite Plays
DeMarcus Cousins — The biggest risk with Cousins is always foul trouble; he’s somehow averaging 4.8 fouls per game. In nine of his twelve games he’s had either five or six fouls. That said, he’s arguably the most talented center in the league and you’d expect that he could stay out of foul trouble against Gorgui Dieng. For the foreseeable future, Cousins will only be a GPP play for me in anything other than very short slates, and with a full complement of high-priced options tonight, there are plenty of places for you to pivot.
Secondary Plays
None
Minnesota
The Timberwolves are still dealing with the same recent frontcourt issues that have resulted in the recent T’Wolves Roulette game that people have been playing with their DFS lineups. Thaddeus Young will miss this game and Nikola Pekovic could be out for a long period of time. That leaves Gorgui Dieng, Anthony Bennett and surprisingly Shabbaz Muhammad (when they go small) vying for minutes. Dieng is the only healthy natural center on the roster and should be locked in for 30+ minutes tonight dealing with Cousins.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Corey Brewer — The other big injury impacting this team is the broken wrist of Kevin Martin. We weren’t able to get a good gauge on how Brewer would play with Martin out since they were promptly out of contention against the Spurs in last night’s game. Moving forward, Brewer should make for a safe source of production if you need to save a little cap space.
Washington at Milwaukee
- Vegas Line – Washington -3, 194 Over/Under
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Temple-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Parker-Sanders
| Washington | Milwaukee | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194 |  | Vegas Total | 194 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -3.00 | Vegas Sprd | 3.00 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.5 | Team Proj. | 95.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.67 | Team Pace | 95.03 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | John Wall | Garrett Temple | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | Proj Starter | Brandon Knight | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Jabari Parker | Larry Sanders | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 24 | 11 | 14 | 26 | Opp. Season | 1 | 9 | 19 | 5 | 5 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 30 | 14 | 7 | 14 | Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 15 | 6 | |
Washington
John Wall put on a show against the Cavs last night, but that was at home and Kyrie Irving was defending him. Perhaps the second most notable home/away split player behind Anthony Davis, Wall is a comfortable fade here on the road. The Wizards have looked very good early in the season, and integrating Bradley Beal back into this offense is only going to help. The Wizards are small road favorites here against a pretty bad Bucks team that just got blown out by the Raptors.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Bradley Beal — Only playable on DK at $6,200, Beal has put up consecutive 30+ point outings in his first two games. This is his second game in as many days — and he’s recently recovered from an injury — so rostering him isn’t without risk, but the upside is definitely there.
Milwaukee
Despite the coaching change, the Bucks have had a rotation nearly as unpredictable as last season. Brandon Knight has been their most reliable source of production (but not game winning layups), and Giannis Antetokounmpo has been good in spots, but is playing through an ankle injury that is limiting his minutes. You’d probably play Larry Sanders every night at his price if you could be guaranteed 30 minutes, but the problem is that he’s good for anywhere from 14-25 minutes instead. In general, the correct move is usually to stay away from the Bucks.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Brandon Knight — Knight didn’t put up a good stat line against Toronto in the blowout, but his recent run of play before that was very good. He leads the Bucks in minutes, points, assists and even defensive rebounds. He will have the ball in his hands a lot, but runs into the top team against point guards. Washington certainly expended a lot more energy than Milwaukee did last night, so you’d be gambling on Knight being able to take advantage of that if you took him.
Brooklyn at San Antonio
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -10, 194 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Bogdanovic-Johnson-Garnett-Lopez
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Diaw
| Brooklyn | San Antonio | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194 |  | Vegas Total | 194 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 10 | Vegas Sprd | -10 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92 | Team Proj. | 102 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.76 | Team Pace | 95.66 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Bojan Bogdanovic | Joe Johnson | Kevin Garnett | Brook Lopez | Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Boris Diaw | |
| Opp. Season | 5 | 3 | 18 | 24 | 9 | Opp. Season | 29 | 22 | 24 | 4 | 21 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 21 | 13 | Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 24 | 22 | 5 | 21 | |
Brooklyn
The only way that I could be convinced to roster any Nets on the back end of a back-to-back on the road against the Spurs is if a few of the Spurs’ key players will be sitting. Otherwise, you should stay away. This is a big enough slate to find valuable plays elsewhere, and there’s no reason to have exposure to this side of the ball in San Antonio.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
San Antonio
It’s worth noting that the Spurs are on the back end of a back-to-back, yet everyone but Danny Green logged 26 minutes or fewer in the blowout against Minnesota. Pay attention to news regarding potential rest days for the Spurs veterans if you plan on rostering them, and be very careful about rostering them on early lock sites like FanDuel. Matt Bonner sat out with the flu on Friday and Marco Belinelli returned to action with ten minutes off the bench.
Elite Plays
Boris Diaw — Diaw has been starting and producing with solid minutes lately for the Spurs. He had a monster game with huge minutes a couple games ago against Cleveland, yet he seemed to be completely under the radar with very low ownership percentages last night. Either way, he can easily pay his number off on FanDuel (aside from a lineup shake-up), and this would be another good opportunity to slide him in for some cap relief.
Secondary Plays
None
New Orleans at Utah
- Vegas Line – New Orleans -2.5, 201.5 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Gordon-Evans-Davis-Ajinca
- Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Burks-Hayward-Kanter-Favors
| New Orleans | Utah | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201 |  | Vegas Total | 201 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -2.50 | Vegas Sprd | 2.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102 | Team Proj. | 99.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.67 | Team Pace | 92.75 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jrue Holiday | Eric Gordon | Tyreke Evans | Anthony Davis | Alexis Ajinca | Proj Starter | Trey Burke | Alec Burks | Gordon Hayward | Enes Kanter | Derrick Favors | |
| Opp. Season | 20 | 8 | 26 | 20 | 3 | Opp. Season | 13 | 5 | 30 | 16 | 16 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 25 | 20 | 1 | 12 | Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 5 | 28 | 11 | 29 | |
New Orleans
The Pelicans were a complete disappointment last night in a game that they were favored in. Rostering Anthony Davis and Tyreke Evans probably resulted in you finishing outside of the money. Throw me in that group, but I’m going right back to the well with the Pelicans as road favorites again in a fast-paced game. Omer Asik is still battling a back injury, and nearly returned last night if it weren’t for him aggravating the injury in warmups. His price has dropped considerably on DK, but it would be hard to imagine him playing without limitation tonight after how last night went. Still, it’s worth keeping an eye on the situation by monitoring team reports.
Elite Plays
Anthony Davis – We need games like the one that Davis had last night (33.8 FD points) to keep his price below $15k and his ownership below 100%. In all seriousness though, we can safely establish that last night was around what Davis’ realistic floor is, and his upside remains through the roof. Let others panic about what happened last night while you continue to roster him. We’re going to see Davis matched up against Derrick Favors, a young power forward that has struggled against good power forwards this year. Paul Millsap, Greg Monroe, Dirk Nowitzki and Blake Griffin all put up point and rebound totals above their season averages in their games against Utah. I might end up saying this every game that he plays in this year, but Anthony Davis is the best play on the board.
Secondary Plays
Tyreke Evans — Overnight, Evans goes from being a small forward on DK to a shooting guard now. I don’t really mind it since it is typically tougher to find shooting guards in his price range. Though he’s another Pelican that struggled last night, Tyreke is in a better position to succeed tonight. The biggest part of Evans’ game is getting to the rim and he goes from seeing a team ranked 7th at defending shots around the rim to face the team that is ranked 28th. Favors could normally change some shots, but in this matchup he can’t stray far away from Anthony Davis. Evans and Davis are positive correlated plays in cash games as their combined point totals will usually be around 40% of the team’s total point output.
Utah
The Jazz are a team that I prefer to roster at home. This looks like it will be a competitive, up-tempo game that suits the team well. Coming off of a blowout loss to the Warriors last night, nobody played more than 26 minutes and the plane ride from the Bay Area to Utah was a short one. After an atrocious start to the season, Trey Burke has started to run the offense much better and has even had some success shooting the ball. If he can get more consistency to his game the Jazz will have a shot to stay competitive this year. With Dante Exum lurking, the pressure is on.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Gordon Hayward — Gordon’s success is dependent on how many shots he takes that game. In the games where he gets 18+ shots up, he approaches the 50 point mark on DK. Otherwise, he’s in the 25-35 point range. Based on his price across the industry currently, that makes him a GPP only play for me. The Pelicans are ranked 29th in the league against small forwards, so if you want some exposure to this game, Hayward is your best bet.