NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, March 11th - Page 2
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Houston at Oklahoma City
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -4, 217 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Jackson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
Houston
The Rockets and Thunder have met twice this season and the Thunder have won both of those games by at least 12 points. Vegas expects tonight’s game to be much closer though and with a total of 217 points, this game looks like a great one to target tonight. The Thunder are only giving up 99.2 points per game this season, but have not been the same defensive team over the last couple of weeks.
The Thunder are really missing Sefolosha and Perkins on the defensive end of the floor. They have dropped in the DvP rankings against both of those positions and have struggled to defend the PG and SG positions all season long. Patrick Beverley makes a nice punt option at PG tonight, he should see big playing time as he will be tasked with disrupting Westbrook’s recent hot streak.
- Dwight Howard – You can throw out Dwight’s splits against the Thunder this season. Perkins will not be in the lineup and Dwight only averaged 27 minutes per game in the first two contests because they got out of hand quickly. Dwight has a terrific matchup against the rookie Steven Adams and he should be able to get him in foul trouble early. If that’s the case, the Thunder will have to turn to Thabeet and Ibaka to defend Dwight.
- James Harden – Harden hasn’t played great against the Thunder this season, but he has averaged close to 37 FP’s per game in 11 career games against his former team. Harden has this Rockets team playing at an extremely high level right now and he won’t have to deal with Thabo as he is still out with an injury. Look for Harden to have a terrific night offensively.
Oklahoma City
The Thunder have a nice matchup against the Rockets tonight. The Rockets are giving up 101.6 points per game this season and make my job very easy. If you look at their DvP rankings, the Rockets have been very stout against the PG and Center positions. This may not come as a surprise as Beverley and Howard are both very solid defenders. Russell Westbrook has been a very difficult player to predict recently, but with him still only playing 30 minutes per game and having to deal with Beverley, I have a hard time seeing him hit value tonight.
The Rockets are ranked 19th or worse against SG’s, SF’s, and PF’s this season and those are the best positions to target tonight. While I don’t love Perry Jones, I don’t mind Caron Butler as a punt play. He should see a few extra minutes in an important game tonight. Serge Ibaka is in play here as well, he has shot 50% or better from the floor in each of his last 7 games and his block potential always gives him a high ceiling.
- Kevin Durant – If you are paying up for a star player tonight, you are likely deciding between Love and Durant. For my money, Durant is easily the better option. This game is far less likely to turn into a blowout and the Rockets have defended the PG position well so Durant may have to be a little more aggressive offensively. He’s a great option to build your team around.
Dallas at Golden State
- Vegas Line – Golden State -5.5, 209 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Iguodala-Lee-Bogut
Dallas
The final game of the night features two high scoring offenses. While the total in this game is high, the Warriors have been very solid defensively this season. They are only giving up 98.7 points per game this season which is 8th in the league and they are now ranked 14th or better against all five positions on the floor. Earlier in the season, there were a couple of positions that you could target against the Warriors, but they are now above average defensively against every position on the floor.
With this being a tough matchup, I’m going to avoid all Mavs in my cash games tonight, but you could use them as upside plays tonight. Monta Ellis has a revenge game against his former team, Dirk Nowitzki can catch fire and take over on any given night, and Shawn Marion is very cheap across the industry.
Golden State
The Warriors easily offer better fantasy options in this game. The Mavs are giving up 102.2 points per game, they are ranked 24th in total rebounding percentage (48.5%), and they are ranked 20th or worse against SF’s and PF’s. Stephen Curry is planning on playing tonight, but he played limited minutes in their last game and there is always a chance that he could be a late scratch. He should be avoided tonight. Klay Thompson has topped 30 FP’s in 4 of his last 6 games and offers a nice upside play. Andre Iguodala is always tempting at his low price.
- David Lee – Earlier in the season, the Mavs were one of the top teams in the league in terms of fantasy points allowed to PF’s and now they have dropped all the way to 23rd. I love Lee’s price across the industry and think he should be able to post a nice double-double on his way to a 35+ fantasy point performance.