NBA Grind Down Wednesday, January 7th - Page Three
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Oklahoma City at Sacramento
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -7.5, 212 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Collison-McLemore-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
| Oklahoma City | Sacramento | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 212 |  | Vegas Total | 212 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 109.75 | Team Proj. | 102.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.23 | Team Pace | 96.77 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kevin Durant | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | Proj Starter | Darren Collison | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Jason Thompson | DeMarcus Cousins | |
| Opp. Season | 19 | 27 | 12 | 29 | 8 | Opp. Season | 27 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 5 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 27 | 26 | 5 | 28 | Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 14 | 28 | 16 | 6 | |
Oklahoma City
The Thunder are looking to bounce back after getting blown out by the Warriors the other night. This will be their first game with Dion Waiters on board and it will be interesting to see how this one plays out. The Thunder now have four ball-dominant players. I expect Scott Brooks and company to ease Waiters into the mix, so he can safely be avoided in all leagues.
Opponent Breakdown (Sacramento)
Record: 14-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.4
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 1
Elite Plays
Russell Westbrook (FD: $11400, DK: $10200 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 39.5)
Westbrook may be a little too expensive to use on FanDuel, but he’s one of my favorite plays at any position on DraftKings. He is listed at $10,200, meaning he needs to score around 50 fantasy points to reach value. Not only is he averaging 48 fantasy points per game this season, but he gets to face a Kings defense that has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to point guards this season. Most of the experts across the industry seem to be off of Westbrook tonight, but he’ll likely find his way onto my main cash game lineup on DraftKings.
Kevin Durant (FD: $10700, DK: $11100 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 31.5)
Durant is no longer on a minutes restriction, which means we can fire him up as a top fantasy option every time he takes the floor. His price is affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he’s one of the top overall plays tonight. He does draw a fairly tough matchup against Rudy Gay, but I don’t see that slowing him down tonight. He has 50+ fantasy point upside in a game that features one of the highest totals of the night.
Secondary Plays
None
Sacramento
The Kings have lost seven of their last ten games and are quickly falling out of the playoff race in the West. Vegas has them listed as 7.5-point underdogs tonight against the Thunder in a game that features a total of 212 points. While the Thunder do have a top ten defense, they are one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA when both Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant are in the lineup together. That bodes well for the Kings tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Oklahoma City)
Record: 17-18
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.9
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
DeMarcus Cousins (FD: $10600, DK: $10700 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 33.3)
The Thunder have been stingy against centers this season, but there are few centers in the NBA with as much talent as Cousins. He has 50+ fantasy point upside every time he takes the floor. He’s a terrific option for tournaments tonight, as he will largely go overlooked with such a large slate of games.
Darren Collison (FD: $7300, DK: $7000 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 21.2)
The only reason Collison is not listed as an elite play tonight is the wealth of options at point guard. I find myself going with the cheaper guards (Mo Williams, Trey Burke) or spending up on the elite guards (Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul). That said, Collison has been playing well recently and he draws a terrific matchup against the Thunder, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.
Indiana at Golden State
- Vegas Line – Golden State -11, 203 Over/Under
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Watson-Stuckey-Hill-West-Hibbert
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Speights
| Indiana | Golden State | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203 |  | Vegas Total | 203 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.00 | Vegas Sprd | -11.00 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96 | Team Proj. | 107 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.01 | Team Pace | 100.83 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | C.J. Watson | Rodney Stuckey | Solomon Hill | David West | Roy Hibbert | Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Marreese Speights | |
| Opp. Season | 22 | 18 | 21 | 21 | 2 | Opp. Season | 12 | 20 | 1 | 5 | 23 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 6 | 16 | 8 | 9 | Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 28 | 10 | 12 | 13 | |
Indiana
While the Warriors do play at a very fast pace, this is not a matchup that I want to have any part of tonight. The Warriors are ranked first in defensive efficiency this season. The Pacers are 11-point underdogs in a game that could easily turn into a blowout. The only fantasy option that I will consider tonight is Donald Sloan, and that’s if C.J. Watson is unable to suit up.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Record: 27-5
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.2
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Golden State
The Warriors are 11-point favorites tonight against the Pacers at home. Not only does this game have the potential to turn into a blowout, but the matchup isn’t all that great anyway. The Pacers are a very slow-paced team that has held their opponents to an average of only 96 points per game this season. Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green are all a little over-priced for their matchup tonight against the Pacers.
Opponent Breakdown (Indiana)
Record: 14-22
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.1
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
L.A. Lakers at L.A. Clippers
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -10.5, 215 Over/Under
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Lin-Bryant-Kelly-Davis-Hill
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
| L.A. Lakers | L.A. Clippers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 215 |  | Vegas Total | 215 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 10.5 | Vegas Sprd | -10.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.25 | Team Proj. | 112.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.61 | Team Pace | 96.46 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeremy Lin | Kobe Bryant | Ryan Kelly | Ed Davis | Jordan Hill | Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | |
| Opp. Season | 3 | 17 | 14 | 16 | 15 | Opp. Season | 30 | 6 | 16 | 23 | 21 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 3 | 20 | 11 | 16 | Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 29 | |
L.A. Lakers
This is technically a road game for the Lakers, but they will still be playing in the Staples Center. Many want the battle of L.A. to be a rivalry, but it’s been so one-sided in recent years, that it’s far from a rivalry. Kobe Bryant is expected to play tonight, but the Lakers are still 10.5-point underdogs. I don’t like targeting Lakers players unless I absolutely have to, and with 12 other games on the schedule, that’s certainly not the case tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Clippers)
Record: 23-12
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.2
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
L.A. Clippers
I hate trying to predict these types of games. On paper, this is one of the best matchups on the board. The Lakers are ranked 29th in defensive efficiency and have allowed their opponents to score an average of 108.1 points per game. The issue is that this game has blowout potential. The Clippers could easily have this game in hand by the end of the third quarter, leaving the starters on the bench for the rest of the game. Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan are obviously in play here, but there are better options at their respective positions.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Lakers)
Record: 11-24
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.1
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 29
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26
Elite Plays
Chris Paul (FD: $9900, DK: $9700 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 22.4)
If the Lakers can manage to keep this game close, Paul may be the play of the night. His price is under $10,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he draws a dream matchup, as the Lakers have allowed more fantasy points to point guards than any other team in the league. This is a rare instance where you get to target a player with a depressed price tag in a fantastic matchup. The risk is still there, but Paul could easily have 40 fantasy points by the end of the third quarter anyway.
Secondary Plays
Jamal Crawford (FD: $5100, DK: $4900 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 27.8)
Crawford makes an excellent tournament play tonight. His ownership will likely be low, given the fact that there are so many other options at shooting guard. He is very affordable across the industry and may end up playing some garbage time if this game gets out of hand. It’s hard to find many players with his usage rate at his price point.