NBA Grind Down Wednesday, November 12th - Page Two
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L.A. Lakers at New Orleans
- Vegas Line – New Orleans -11, 208 Over/Under
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Lin-Bryant-Johnson-Boozer-Hill
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Jrue Holiday-Eric Gordon-Tyreke Evans-Anthony Davis-Omer Asik
| L.A. Lakers | New Orleans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208 |  | Vegas Total | 208 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.0 | Vegas Sprd | -11.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.50 | Team Proj. | 109.50 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.26 | Team Pace | 97.1 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeremy Lin | Kobe Bryant | Wesley Johnson | Carlos Boozer | Jordan Hill | Proj Starter | Jrue Holiday | Eric Gordon | Tyreke Evans | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 7 | 29 | 16 | 20 | Opp. Season | 29 | 20 | 9 | 20 | 15 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 11 | 29 | 16 | 1 | Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 10 | 1 | 25 | 21 | |
L.A. Lakers
The Lakers are only 1-6 on the season, but they’ve managed to stay competitive in recent games including a close loss to the Grizzlies last night. The Lakers come into tonight’s game as 11-point underdogs. They are facing the Pelicans who are a fairly fast-paced team (97.1 possessions per game). The total for this game is set at 208 points which means we can expect a lot of fantasy points to be scored in this one. The only concern here is a potential blowout as the Lakers are playing the second half of back-to-back road games.
Prime Plays
Kobe Bryant – Bryant may not be a great teammate, but he is a terrific fantasy option this season. Through the first seven games, Bryant is averaging 24 shot attempts per game. He has the highest usage rate (35.7) of any player in the NBA and is currently averaging the second most points per game at 26.7. Bryant should continue to fire up 20+ shots per game as the Lakers take on the Pelicans tonight.
Secondary Plays
Jordan Hill – Hill has always been a great rebounder, but he’s developed a nice mid-range game this season that has really taken his offensive skill set to the next level. On the season, Hill is averaging 14 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. He’s a threat for a double-double every night that he takes the floor.
New Orleans
The Pelicans draw the best matchup on the board tonight. The Lakers play at a fast pace (99.3 possessions per 48 minutes) and are ranked dead last in defensive efficiency. The Lakers are currently giving up 111.9 points per game which is easily the most of any team in the NBA. There is some concern that this could turn into a blowout, but the matchup it too good to fade completely.
Prime Plays
Anthony Davis – Davis will likely be one of the most popular plays of the night and for good reason. He leads all NBA players in fantasy points per game (55.9 on FD) and has arguably the best matchup on the board as he faces the Lakers. As mentioned above, the Lakers are ranked dead last in defensive efficiency and points allowed per game. Davis should have another monster stat line tonight against the weak interior defense of the Lakers. He’s the top overall play tonight and once again, fade him at your own risk.
Jrue Holiday – Holiday has been a boom or bust option this season, but he has already topped 40 fantasy points (FD scoring) twice this season. Tonight he draws a terrific matchup against the Lakers who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing PGs this season. Holiday should fill up the stat sheet in a fast-paced game against the Lakers.
Secondary Plays
Tyreke Evans – This seems like an Evans type of game. He’s typically at his best in the open floor when he can attack the rim. The Lakers have little to no interior defense and Evans has the ability to contribute in multiple statistical categories. The only issue is that he’ll be matched up against Wesley Johnson who is the Lakers best defender.
Portland at Denver
- Vegas Line – Portland -2.5, 209 Over/Under
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Crabbe-Aldridge-Lopez
- Denver Proj. Starters – Ty Lawson-Arron Afflalo-Wilson Chandler-Kenneth Faried-Timofey Mozgov
| Portland | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | 209 | ||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | 2.50 | ||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | 103.25 | ||||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.38 | Team Pace | 101.77 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Wesley Matthews | Allen Crabbe | LaMarcus Aldridge | Robin Lopez | Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Arron Afflalo | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Timofey Mozgov | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 2 | 30 | 26 | 26 | Opp. Season | 21 | 4 | 26 | 5 | 14 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 8 | 27 | 23 | 27 | Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 5 | 17 | 14 | 10 | |
Portland
The Blazers are coming off of a huge come-back win against the Hornets last night. Tonight they square off against the Nuggets in Denver. The Blazers are currently 2.5-point favorites in a game that features a total of 209 points. This is a great matchup for the Blazers as the Nuggets are a fast-paced team that is ranked 24th in defensive efficiency and 18th in rebounding differential. One injury note: Nicolas Batum will not play tonight. Allen Crabbe will likely draw another start in his place.
Prime Plays
LaMarcus Aldridge – Aldridge is coming off of a terrific outing against the Hornets last night. That was a tough matchup too. Tonight he draws a much easier matchup against the soft interior defense of the Nuggets. Aldridge is averaging 23 points and 8 rebounds per game and will have a great chance to improve on those numbers tonight against the Nuggets who are ranked 26th at defending the PF position this season. It may not be a bad idea to anchor your lineups around both Anthony Davis and LaMarcus Aldridge.
Damian Lillard – Lillard got off to a slow start this season, but he’s quickly righted the ship. Over his last five games, he is averaging 22 points, 5 rebounds, and 7 assists per game. Tonight he squares off against the Nuggets in what could be the highest scoring game of the night.
Wesley Matthews – This is a rare occasion where there are three ‘prime plays’ from the same team. With Batum out of the lineup, Matthews was my favorite player to see a boost in production. That was the case last night as Matthews finished with 16 points, 3 rebounds, and 7 assists in 35 minutes of playing time. While the Nuggets have improved their perimeter defense with Arron Afflalo, Matthews should see 35+ minutes in what should be a fast-paced, high-scoring game.
Secondary Plays
Robin Lopez – I’ll let you in on a little secret: the Nuggets can’t defend opposing big men. They are ranked 26th against PFs and 26th against centers this season. Don’t be surprised if Aldridge and Lopez both have monster fantasy outings tonight.
Denver
The Nuggets have looked awful in their first six games. They are only 1-5 on the season and have given up an average of 108 points per game to their opponents. You aren’t going to win many games if you play that kind of defense. In terms of their matchup tonight, the Blazers are ranked 6th in defensive efficiency, but will be without their best defender in Nicolas Batum.
Prime Plays
Ty Lawson – Lawson is still nursing an ankle injury, but he played on Sunday and finished with 18 points, 6 rebounds, and 8 assists. It was his best game of the season and hopefully a sign of things to come. Lawson draws a prime matchup against Damian Lillard and the Blazers who are ranked 21st against PGs this season.
Secondary Plays
Kenneth Faried – Faried has been a disappointment after playing so well over the summer. That said, he has always had good splits at home and he’s typically at his best in fast-paced games where he can fly around on both ends of the floor.
Brooklyn at Phoenix
- Vegas Line – Phoenix -5, 207 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Deron Williams-Joe Johnson-Bojan Bogdanovic-Kevin Garnett-Robin Lopez
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Goran Dragic-Eric Bledsoe-Marcus Morris-Markieff Morris-Miles Plumlee
| Brooklyn | Phoenix | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207 |  | Vegas Total | 207 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5 | Vegas Sprd | -5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101 | Team Proj. | 106 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.71 | Team Pace | 98.1 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Joe Johnson | Bojan Bogdanovic | Kevin Garnett | Brook Lopez | Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Eric Bledsoe | Marcus Morris | Markieff Morris | Miles Plumlee | |
| Opp. Season | 22 | 21 | 8 | 30 | 1 | Opp. Season | 24 | 13 | 18 | 8 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 17 | 14 | 20 | 20 | Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 27 | 20 | 5 | 18 | |
Brooklyn
The Nets are 4-2 to start the season, but the biggest surprise hasn’t been their record, it’s been the way that they have been winning. The Nets are ranked second in offensive efficiency and are averaging 104.7 points per game even though they are only averaging 94.7 possessions per game. Tonight the Nets are 5-point underdogs against the Suns in a game that features a total of 207 points. This is a pace-up game for the Nets which bodes well for their fantasy appeal as a whole.
Prime Plays
Deron Williams – It’s been a while since I’ve been able to say this, but Williams has been a very consistent fantasy option. He has scored at least 28 fantasy points (FD scoring) in every game this season. He’s averaging 20 points, 3 rebounds, and 7 assists per game and draws a nice matchup against the Suns who are ranked 22nd against PGs this season.
Secondary Plays
Brook Lopez – Lopez doesn’t appear to be on any minute-restriction which is great for his fantasy value. His price is still low and the Suns have given up the 11th most fantasy points to opposing centers over the last seven days.
Joe Johnson – Johnson will likely fly under the radar tonight. He’s burned many bridges in the daily fantasy basketball world, but we have to do our best not to hold grudges. He has played well this season and finds himself in a favorable matchup against the Suns who are ranked 21st against SGs this season.
Phoenix
The Suns are projected as one of the highest scoring teams of the night, but when you look at the Nets, it’s a pretty average matchup. The Nets are a slow-paced team that is ranked 14th in defensive efficiency and 5th in rebounding differential. The Nets have also held their opponents to an average of 98.2 points per game. That doesn’t mean that we need to fade the Suns altogether, but we don’t have to go overboard on them either.
Prime Plays
Markieff Morris – Morris has taken that next step that the Suns were hoping for this season. He is averaging 16 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 assists per game this season. He has a good outside shot and a solid post-up game as well. Tonight he squares off against Kevin Garnett and the Nets. While the matchup may not be ideal, he has been the most consistent fantasy option on the Suns so far this season.
Secondary Plays
Eric Bledsoe – Bledsoe has terrific upside, but his few bad games this seaosn are holding him back from being an elite play in cash games. I do like the matchup against the Nets who haven’t defended either guard position very well this season.
Houston at Minnesota
- Vegas Line – Houston -6.5, 199 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Isaiah Canaan-James Harden-Trevor Ariza-Donatas Motiejunas-Dwight Howard
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Zach LaVine-Kevin Martin-Andrew Wiggins-Thaddeus Young-Nikola Pekovic
| Houston | Minnesota | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199 |  | Vegas Total | 199 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -6.50 | Vegas Sprd | 6.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.75 | Team Proj. | 96.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.83 | Team Pace | 96.37 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Isaiah Canaan | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Dwight Howard | Proj Starter | Zach LaVine | Kevin Martin | Andrew Wiggins | Thaddeus Young | Nikola Pekovic | |
| Opp. Season | 9 | 16 | 12 | 15 | 7 | Opp. Season | 13 | 5 | 20 | 14 | 10 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 9 | 22 | 11 | 5 | Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 3 | 30 | 4 | 3 | |
NOTE: This game will be played in Mexico City. Last year’s game in Mexico City was cancelled due to a fire breaking out in the Stadium. That’s not likely going to happen again, but you never know with these teams playing in Mexico.
Houston
The story of the Rockets is all about injuries right now. The Rockets will be without both Patrick Beverley and Terrence Jones tonight, but they are expecting to have Dwight Howard back after he went through this morning’s shoot-around. Isaiah Canaan and Donatas Motiejunas will both be in the starting lineup tonight as the Rockets take on the Timberwolves. The Rockets are 6.5-point favorites in a game that features a total of 199 points.
Prime Plays
James Harden – If Anthony Davis wasn’t playing tonight, Harden would be the top overall fantasy option. He is off to a terrific start this season by averaging 25 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists per game. His ability to create his own shot whenever he wants it makes him a superstar in the NBA and in daily fantasy basketball. His usage rate on the season is 30.9 which is the fourth highest of any player in the league. Tonight he draws a favorable matchup against Kevin Martin and the Timberwolves.
Isaiah Canaan – Patrick Beverley has already been ruled out of tonight’s game which means Canaan will draw another start at PG. In four starts this season, Canaan is averaging 14 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. He is also a terrific shooter which helps his value on DraftKings as they have the three-point bonus. He should be able to reach value pretty easily tonight.
Secondary Plays
Dwight Howard – Injury concerns and a matchup against Nikola Pekovic lands Howard in the ‘secondary plays’ spot tonight.
Trevor Ariza – Ariza has been terrific for the Rockets this season. With both Beverley and Jones out, he could see a few extra shot attempts coming his way. He has scored at least 23 fantasy points (FD scoring) in three of his last four games.
Minnesota
We were all expecting (and hoping) that Mo Williams would become the Timberwolves starting PG with Ricky Rubio out, but it wasn’t meant to be. The Wolves started rookie Zach LaVine instead in order to keep Williams with the second unit. Of the two, I still think Williams is the better fantasy play as he is a proven veteran in the NBA. Tonight the Wolves face the Rockets who have actually been very good defensively this season. The Rockets have held their opponents to 90.9 points per game.
Prime Plays
Kevin Martin – Martin is coming off of his worst game of the season, but he had topped 28 fantasy points (FD scoring) in each of his previous three outings. His price is still very affordable and he draws a terrific matchup against James Harden who has never been known as a great defender. Martin should be heavily involved in the offense tonight with Ricky Rubio sidelined.
Mo Williams – Even though Williams will not draw the start while Ricky Rubio is out, he should still see extended playing time off the bench. He’s expected to play around 25-30 minutes per game which is plenty of time for him to reach value at his price point. He should be able to top 20 fantasy points against the Rockets who will be without Patrick Beverley.
Secondary Plays
Nikola Pekovic – Pek would see a major boost in fantasy value if Dwight Howard is forced to miss tonight’s game. He can safely be avoided if Howard plays though.