NBA Grind Down Wednesday, November 19th - Page Two
All stat chart buttons below open in an in-screen popup window and include stat tables for all games on the given page of the Grind Down Article
Phoenix at Detroit
- Vegas Line – Phoenix -2, 204.5 Over/Under
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Bledsoe-Dragic-Morris-Morris-Plumlee
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Caldwell-Pope-Smith-Monroe-Drummond
| Phoenix | Detroit | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204 |  | Vegas Total | 204 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.25 | Team Proj. | 101.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.3 | Team Pace | 93.41 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Eric Bledsoe | Goran Dragic | Marcus Morris | Markieff Morris | Miles Plumlee | Proj Starter | Brandon Jennings | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Josh Smith | Greg Monroe | Andre Drummond | |
| Opp. Season | 4 | 25 | 3 | 21 | 28 | Opp. Season | 24 | 24 | 5 | 23 | 19 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 22 | 11 | 10 | 29 | Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 30 | |
Phoenix
The Suns improved to 6-5 on the season with a win over the Celtics the other night. They will try to win back-to-back road games tonight against the Pistons. While the total for the game is set at 204 points, this will be a pace-down game for the Suns, as the Pistons only average 93.4 possessions per 48 minutes. Detroit is a below average team defensively though so there may be a couple of matchups to exploit in this one.
Elite Plays
Markieff Morris (FD: $6800, DK: $6800 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.1)
Morris is coming off of a huge fantasy outing against the Celtics in which he put up a ridiculous stat line of 30 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, and 4 steals. His usage rate is up this season and he’s a dual threat PF that can both stretch the floor and score in the post. He’ll likely match up against both Greg Monroe and Josh Smith. I like his chances to score in both of those matchups.
Secondary Plays
Eric Bledsoe (FD: $6700, DK: $6600 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.1)
The biggest knock on Bledsoe isn’t anything that he can control, it’s how deep the Suns bench is. Isaiah Thomas and Gerald Green can both take over a game at any point and when that happens, Bledsoe’s minutes and production are both affected. He still offers nice upside though and makes for a good tournament play tonight against the Pistons.
Detroit
The Pistons are one of my least favorite teams to see on the schedule. They play at a very slow pace and their starters are extremely inconsistent night in and night out. That leads to a lot of guess work, which I try to avoid as often as possible in daily fantasy sports. In terms of the matchup, this is a favorable one. The Suns play at a fast pace (99.3 possessions per 48 minutes) and are ranked 20th in defensive efficiency.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Greg Monroe (FD: $6900, DK: $7200 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 23.4)
There aren’t any must plays on the Pistons tonight, especially when it comes to cash games. That said, Monroe is in a favorable spot tonight against Markieff Morris and the Suns who are ranked 23rd against opposing PFs this season. Monroe is averaging 16 points, 10 rebounds, and 2 assists per game this season. His price has come down to a playable level on both FD and DK.
Josh Smith (FD: $7300, DK: $7400 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 25.1)
Smith is not a recommended cash game play tonight, but he does serve as a high-ceiling tournament play. Smith has topped 32 fantasy points (FD scoring) in five of his last nine games and could play well against the uptempo Suns.
Milwaukee at Brooklyn
- Vegas Line – Brooklyn -6.5, 194.5 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Parker-Pachulia
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Johnson-Bogdanovic-Garnett-Lopez
| Milwaukee | Brooklyn | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194 |  | Vegas Total | 194 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.50 | Vegas Sprd | -6.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96 | Team Proj. | 100.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.28 | Team Pace | 95.39 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Brandon Knight | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Jabari Parker | Zaza Pachulia | Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Joe Johnson | Bojan Bogdanovic | Kevin Garnett | Brook Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 28 | 12 | 23 | 4 | 24 | Opp. Season | 8 | 9 | 16 | 11 | 27 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 8 | 23 | 5 | 26 | Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 19 | 28 | 3 | 17 | |
Milwaukee
The Bucks are typically fantasy kryptonite thanks to the inconsistent rotations of Jason Kidd (he’s picked up right where Larry Drew left off). That said, there are actually a few Bucks’ players that I may be targeting tonight against the Nets. The Nets play at a decent pace (95.4 possessions per 48 minutes), and are ranked 21st in defensive efficiency.
Elite Plays
Brandon Knight (FD: $7200, DK: $7500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 26.3)
Knight is off to a terrific start this season. He is averaging 18 points, 6 rebounds, and 7 assists per game. He’s the one Bucks player that has seen consistent minutes all season long. Knight is always going to be heavily involved in the offense with a usage rate of 26.4. Tonight, he draws a favorable matchup against the Nets, who are ranked 29th in fantasy points allowed to opposing PGs this season.
Khris Middleton (FD: $4600, DK: $3200 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 20.6)
Middleton is in play tonight for two reasons. First, and most important, is the fact that he was inserted into the starting lineup last night and he played well with 13 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assists. Second, Middleton’s price is SO cheap on both FD and DK. Take advantage of the great value.
Secondary Plays
Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $5200, DK: $5300 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 21.7)
Giannis only played 17 minutes last night due to foul trouble, but he still finished with 13 points and 6 rebounds. He had topped 26 minutes and 25 fantasy points in each of his previous three games and should get back on track tonight against the Nets. With this being the second half of a back-to-back, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get 30+ minutes as he didn’t play much last night.
Zaza Pachulia (FD: $4000, DK: $3000 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 17.7)
This pick hinges on the health of Larry Sanders. Sanders is currently listed as questionable for tonight’s game. If he is forced to sit out, Pachulia would draw another start at center. He played well in Sanders’ absence last night, as he put up 14 points, 13 rebounds, and 4 assists.
Brooklyn
The Nets are another team that is difficult to predict on a nightly basis. They are well-balanced offensively which leads to a lot of average fantasy outings from their starters. They draw an extremely tough matchup tonight against the Bucks, who are ranked 5th in defensive efficiency and 9th in rebounding differential this season. The Bucks are a tall, athletic team that is full of good defenders. That doesn’t bode well for the Nets tonight.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Brook Lopez (FD: $6600, DK: $6600 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 27.5)
Lopez is in play tonight thanks to his cheap price tag on both FD and DK. He has topped 26 fantasy points (FD scoring) in four of his last six games and has a very high usage rate of 27.5 on the season. Give him a slight bump if Larry Sanders is ruled out as I like the matchup against Zaza Pachulia.
Memphis at Toronto
- Vegas Line – Toronto -2.5, 194 Over/Under
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Allen-Randolph-Gasol
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
| Memphis | Toronto | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194 |  | Vegas Total | 194 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.5 | Vegas Sprd | -2.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.75 | Team Proj. | 98.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 93.87 | Team Pace | 96.59 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Tony Allen | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | Terrence Ross | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 18 | 11 | 19 | 3 | 29 | Opp. Season | 2 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 5 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 26 | 2 | 19 | 22 | Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 29 | 2 | |
Memphis
The Grizzlies are atop the NBA standings with a 10-1 record to start the season. They have won by doing what they do best: scoring in the half-court and playing shut-down defense. The Grizzlies come into tonight’s game as 2.5-point underdogs against the Raptors in a game that features a total of 194 points. That total seems a bit generous for a Grizzlies game, but only time will tell if I’m correct on that one. The one area where teams have had success against the Raptors is on the glass. The Raptors have the 4th worst rebounding differential in the NBA this season.
Injury Note: Tony Allen, Courtney Lee, and Beno Udrih are all questionable for tonight’s game.
Elite Plays
Marc Gasol (FD: $7900, DK: $7400 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 24.3)
Gasol doesn’t get the credit that he deserves. He’s one of the best centers in the NBA and one of the most consistent centers in daily fantasy basketball. Tonight he draws an excellent matchup against the Raptors, who are ranked 29th in fantasy points allowed to opposing centers this season. The Raptors are also a poor rebounding team. For $7,400 on DK, he may be my favorite center for cash games tonight.
Secondary Plays
Zach Randolph (FD: $7900, DK: $7500 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 23.8)
Randolph has been Mr. Consistent this season. While I like the fact that he has had a few monster fantasy outings, what I like even more is that he is basically a lock for 30+ fantasy points every single game. He’s a double-double machine that finds himself in a good matchup against a bad rebounding Raptors team.
Toronto
The Raptors have the unfortunate task of facing the Grizzlies tonight. The Grizzlies are one of the league’s slowest-paced teams, averaging only 93.9 possessions per 48 minutes. They are also one of the best defensive teams, ranking 4th in defensive efficiency. They are holding their opponents to a measly 91.5 points per game, which is the best of any team in the NBA. Basically, you should look elsewhere in your quest for fantasy production.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Kyle Lowry (FD: $8300, DK: $7700 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 22.9)
Lowry is only listed here because you can never count him out. He has the ability to fill up the stat sheet and take over any game of the season. I’ll likely be fading the Raptors altogether, but he may be worth a look as a deep tournament play.
New York at Minnesota
- Vegas Line – Minnesota -1.5, 205 Over/Under
- New York Proj. Starters – Larkin-Smith-Shumpert-Anthony-Dalembert
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – LaVine-Martin-Wiggins-Bennett-Dieng
| New York | Minnesota | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.75 | Team Proj. | 103.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 91.8 | Team Pace | 98.46 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Shane Larkin | J.R. Smith | Iman Shumpert | Carmelo Anthony | Samuel Dalembert | Proj Starter | Zach LaVine | Kevin Martin | Andrew Wiggins | Anthony Bennett | Gorgui Dieng | |
| Opp. Season | 5 | 21 | 26 | 19 | 12 | Opp. Season | 14 | 16 | 2 | 27 | 3 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 25 | 30 | 23 | 19 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 23 | 5 | 18 | 7 | |
New York
Carmelo Anthony is dealing with a knee injury, but he is not listed on the Knicks injury report and is fully expected to play tonight against the Timberwolves. The Knicks aren’t typically a team with many fantasy options, but they do draw a favorable matchup tonight. The Wolves play at a fast pace (98.5 possessions per 48 minutes), and are ranked 29th in defensive efficiency. The Knicks are projected to score over 100 points which hasn’t happened many times this season.
Elite Plays
Iman Shumpert (FD: $5400, DK: $3900 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 20.6)
Shumpert made his return to the lineup last night after missing a game with a hip injury. He picked up right where he left off with 21 points, 8 rebounds, and 8 assists. While we can’t expect a repeat performance tonight, his price is awfully enticing. He’s a strong play on FD at $5,400 and close to a must play on DK at only $3,900.
Secondary Plays
J.R. Smith (FD: $5500, DK: $5400 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 21.3)
Carmelo Anthony also deserves roster consideration, but the knee injury does concern me, which is why he’s not listed here. Smith makes a good tournament play tonight as long as he is still in the starting lineup. Smith provides good upside and he has topped 18 fantasy points in each of his last five games.
Minnesota
The Wolves will be without Nikola Pekovic and Thaddeus Young tonight which means there is value galore in the Wolves’ frontcourt. Gorgui Dieng and Anthony Bennett will likely start, and both make great fantasy plays tonight. The Wolves draw a favorable matchup against the Knicks, who are ranked 27th in defensive efficiency. Even despite their slow pace of play, the Knicks are giving up an average 99.7 points per game.
Elite Plays
Gorgui Dieng (FD: $4900, DK: $5000 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 17.1)
Dieng was a bit of a disappointment in his last start. The problem was that he and Nikola Pekovic are very similar players and they ended up clogging up the lane. That won’t be an issue tonight as Nikola Pekovic is out tonight. Expect Dieng to see around 30 minutes of playing time tonight against the Pistons. On the season, he is averaging just over one fantasy point per minute which makes him a good candidate to reach 5x salary tonight on both FD and DK.
Anthony Bennett (FD: $3700, DK: $3000 / MPG: 14 / Usage Rate: 16.3)
Bennett is coming off of his best game of the season. In 29 minutes against the Mavericks, he put up 10 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assists. He should draw another start tonight and offers some terrific value at close to min-salary.
Secondary Plays
None
Oklahoma City at Denver
- Vegas Line – Denver -7.5, 196 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Jackson-Lamb-Thomas-Ibaka-Adams
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Afflalo-Chandler-Faried-Mozgov
| Oklahoma City | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196 |  | Vegas Total | 196 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.3 | Team Proj. | 101.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 93.01 | Team Pace | 99.99 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Reggie Jackson | Jeremy Lamb | Lance Thomas | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Arron Afflalo | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Timofey Mozgov | |
| Opp. Season | 12 | 1 | 30 | 22 | 25 | Opp. Season | 21 | 17 | 6 | 8 | 22 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 10 | 21 | 9 | 18 | Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 23 | |
Oklahoma City
The Thunder’s offense has disappeared in their last two games. They could only muster up 69 points against the Rockets and then followed it up with a disappointing 81 points last night against the Jazz. The good news is that they face the Nuggets whose defense is a cure for all offensive woes. The Nuggets are one of the fastest-paced teams in the league (99.9 possessions per 48 minutes), and they have one of the worst defenses. They are currently ranked 24th in defensive efficiency, and have given up an average of 107.1 points per game to their opponents.
Elite Plays
Reggie Jackson (FD: $8000, DK: $8400 / MPG: 41 / Usage Rate: 26.6)
Jackson had his first bad game of the season last night against the Jazz, but he was pulled early in the fourth quarter, likely to get him some rest for tonight’s game against the Nuggets. Jackson should bounce back in a big way tonight in a fast-paced game that fits his style of play. Don’t forget that he is still averaging close to 40 minutes per game and he still owns a high usage rate of 26.6.
Secondary Plays
Jeremy Lamb (FD: $5400, DK: $5600 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 21.3)
Lamb has been very inconsistent this season, but he put up a strong outing last night against the Jazz. He has now topped 30 fantasy points three times in his last six games. With Andre Roberson and Perry Jones still hobbled, Lamb should continue to see extended playing time.
Steven Adams (FD: $4200, DK: $4700 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 16.6)
Targeting big men against the Nuggets is an age-old fantasy tradition. The Nuggets still can’t defend the paint and they still can’t rebound. Both of which bode well for the very cheap Adams. He’s a very serviceable value play at center tonight.
Denver
The total for tonight’s game is set at 196 points. While that total is right around the average for tonight’s games, it’s extremely low for a Nuggets game. This will be a pace-down game for the Nuggets, as the Thunder are one of the slowest paced teams in the league. The Thunder are also ranked in the top 15 in defensive efficiency and rebounding differential. This is not a great matchup and I suggest treading lightly with the Nuggets tonight.
Elite Plays
Ty Lawson (FD: $8100, DK: $7900 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 22.1)
The one Nuggets player that you can target with confidence tonight is Lawson. Over his last five games, he is averaging 20 points, 4 rebounds, and 9 assists per game. He has been the motor for the Nuggets offense. Tonight he draws a favorable matchup against Reggie Jackson and the Thunder who are ranked 21st in fantasy points allowed to opposing PGs this season.
Secondary Plays
Arron Afflalo (FD: $5300, DK: $5000 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 17.6)
Afflalo got off to a rough start this season, but he’s really turned things around. Over his last three games, he is averaging 19 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. He is also coming off of a season-high 40 minutes of playing time which also bodes well for his fantasy value moving forward.