NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, November 5th - Page Two
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Chicago at Milwaukee
- Vegas Line – Chicago -5.5, 191.5 Over/Under
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Dudley-Middleton-Parker-Sanders
| Chicago | Milwaukee | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 191 |  | Vegas Total | 191 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.50 | Team Proj. | 93.00 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.34 | Team Pace | 100.24 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kirk Hinrich | Jimmy Butler | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | Proj Starter | Brandon Knight | Jared Dudley | Khris Middleton | Jabari Parker | Larry Sanders | |
| Opp. Season | 25 | 23 | 19 | 5 | 30 | Opp. Season | 4 | 16 | 29 | 13 | 16 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 23 | 19 | 26 | 30 | Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 16 | 29 | 18 | 16 | |
Chicago
The Bulls are a tough team to analyze today as Joakim Noah and Derrick Rose are both questionable for tonight’s game against the Bucks. Obviously players of their stature will open up some huge opportunity if they are forced to miss the game. Aaron Brooks and Kirk Hinrich would both benefit from Rose being out. Likewise, Pau Gasol and Taj Gibson would both benefit from Joakim Noah being out. Overall, this is a great matchup as the Bucks play at an uptempo pace. Wait for an update on Rose and Noah later in the day and be ready to plug in a few Bulls players if the opportunity presents itself.
Prime Plays
Jimmy Butler – Butler is the one Bulls player whose fantasy appeal doesn’t hinge on the health of Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah. He is averaging 23 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assists while averaging close to 38 minutes per game. Coach Thibs loves to give his starters all the minutes they can handle and Butler should continue to be a lock for 35+ minutes per game.
Pau Gasol – If Noah is out.
Taj Gibson – If Noah is out.
Secondary Plays
Kirk Hinrich – If Rose is out.
Aaron Brooks – If Rose is out.
Nikola Mirotic – If Noah is out.
Milwaukee
The Bucks almost let the Pacers back into the game last night, but ended up holding them off for their second win of the season. Even though Jason Kidd is now the coach, the rotation pattern looks eerily similar to Larry Drew’s last season. Basically, there is no rotation pattern. Not being able to predict player’s minutes really makes it tough to target any of the Bucks in cash games. It also doesn’t help that the Bucks are facing a slow-paced Bulls team has one of the best defenses in the NBA when healthy.
Prime Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Brandon Knight – Knight has been by far the most consistent player on the Bucks this season. He is averaging 21 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists per game. He’s a better tournament play than a cash game play tonight as there are plenty of other good PG options available.
Indiana at Washington
- Vegas Line – Washington -9.5, 187.5 Over/Under
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Sloan-Miles-Hill-Scola-Hibbert
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Temple-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
| Indiana | Washington | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 187 |  | Vegas Total | 187 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.50 | Vegas Sprd | -9.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 89 | Team Proj. | 98.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 93.87 | Team Pace | 97.29 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Donald Sloan | C.J. Miles | Solomon Hill | Luis Scola | Roy Hibbert | Proj Starter | John Wall | Garrett Temple | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 27 | 13 | 3 | 22 | Opp. Season | 24 | 30 | 2 | 10 | 22 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 27 | 13 | 28 | 22 | Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 30 | 2 | 21 | 22 | |
Indiana
The Pacers dropped to 1-3 on the season after losing at home to the Bucks last night. The injuries are certainly catching up to them, especially on offense. The Pacers are only averaging 91.3 points per game and are ranked in the bottom ten in offensive efficiency. The Pacers fill-ins will continue to see extended playing time, but they will do so in a tough matchup against the Wizards who are very stout defensively. With this being the second half of a back-to-back, this one could get out of hand early.
Prime Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Roy Hibbert – Through the first four games of the season, Hibbert is averaging 15 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 blocks per game. He’s the one Pacers player that can’t be blamed for their struggles. While he does have a decent matchup, the concern is that his minutes may be limited on the second half of a back-to-back.
C.J. Miles – As the Ninja Turtles used to say, “SIKE!” After going 0/8 last night, Miles can be avoided until further notice.
Washington
The Wizards picked up a win in New York last night to up their record to 3-1 on the season. The Wizards should be a team to reckon with in the East as they have a lot of weapons offensively as well as a stout defense. Tonight they square off against the Pacers in what could end up being a blowout. The Wizards are 9.5-point favorites in a game that features a total of 188 points. With 11 other games on the schedule, there aren’t any must plays on the Wizards.
Prime Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
John Wall – Wall is more of a tournament play than a cash game play. His ownership levels will be low and he has great upside as the Pacers have allowed the seventh most fantasy points to opposing PGs this season.
Nene Hilario – Nene is one of those players that tends to fly under the radar for no particular reason. In his first three games of the season, he is averaging 30 minutes, 13 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. That’s solid production from a player at his price point. He draws a favorable matchup an aging Luis Scola tonight.
Atlanta at San Antonio
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -7.5, 202 Over/Under
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Jeff Teague-Kyle Korver-DeMarre Carroll-Paul Millsap-Al Horford
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Tony Parker-Danny Green-Kawhi Leonard-Tim Duncan-Tiago Splitter
| Atlanta | San Antonio | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 202 |  | Vegas Total | 202 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.25 | Team Proj. | 104.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.44 | Team Pace | 91.49 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Tiago Splitter | |
| Opp. Season | 29 | 3 | 10 | 23 | 8 | Opp. Season | 20 | 19 | 18 | 26 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 8 | Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 5 | 17 | |
Atlanta
It feels like the Hawks haven’t played in weeks. They have only played one game in the last six days so they should have fresh legs for their matchup against the defending-champion Spurs. The Hawks are currently listed as 7.5-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 202 points. The Hawks are still trying to ease Al Horford back into the mix and with a well-balanced attack, there aren’t any players that stand out in tonight’s matchup against the Spurs.
Prime Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Jeff Teague – Teague has played well through the first two games of the season averaging 23 points, 4 rebounds, and 7 assists per game. He has a usage rate of 25.2 and a prime matchup against Tony Parker and the Spurs who have allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing PGs this season.
San Antonio
The Spurs are coming off of a loss to the Suns. Tonight’s game against the Hawks will only be their third game of the season. While they have only averaged 91.5 possessions per 48 minutes, that’s not a trend that will continue moving forward. The Spurs play at a much faster pace than most people realize. The Spurs draw a nice matchup against the Hawks, but as always with the Spurs, you can’t go overboard because Pop loves to limit his player’s minutes as much as possible.
Prime Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Tim Duncan – Duncan will have a nice size advantage in the post over Paul Millsap tonight. The Old Fundamental should be in for another productive fantasy outing tonight.
Kawhi Leonard – Leonard only played 23 minutes in his first game of the season, but that number should increase in his second game. The Finals MVP offers great upside for his price.
Memphis at Phoenix
- Vegas Line – Phoenix -1, 194.5 Over/Under
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Mike Conley-Courtney Lee-Tony Allen-Zach Randolph-Marc Gasol
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Bledsoe-Morris-Morris-Plumlee
| Memphis | Phoenix | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194 |  | Vegas Total | 194 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.00 | Vegas Sprd | -1.00 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.75 | Team Proj. | 97.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.57 | Team Pace | 98.1 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Tony Allen | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Eric Bledsoe | Marcus Morris | Markieff Morris | Miles Plumlee | |
| Opp. Season | 15 | 26 | 3 | 30 | 1 | Opp. Season | 2 | 7 | 23 | 6 | 14 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 25 | 14 | |
Memphis
The Grizzlies are one of three undefeated teams remaining. They will have their hands full tonight with a talented, young Suns team in Phoenix. The Grizzlies are currently listed as 1-point underdogs and the total for the game is set at 194 points. The Grizzlies continue to be one of the slower-paced teams in the league as they are only averaging 94.6 possessions per game. Their ability to establish their pace of play on any opponent is bad news for the fantasy appeal of both the Grizzlies and the opponent that they are facing. The Grizzlies are expecting to have Courtney Lee back tonight which means Tony Allen and Tayshaun Prince will both go back to their usual roles.
Prime Plays
Zach Randolph – There are few players that have gotten off to a better start than Z-Bo this season. He is averaging 19 points and 12 rebounds per game. He is a walking double-double which boosts his value on a site like DraftKings that offers milestone bonuses. Randolph has a usage rate of 22.3 this season and should be a focal point of the Grizzlies offense again tonight.
Secondary Plays
Marc Gasol – Speaking of a high usage rate, how about Gasol’s usage rate of 24.4 this season. The Grizzlies offense is basically working from the inside out. Gasol can fill up all areas of the stat sheet and provides a high floor if you are looking for a safe play in cash games.
Phoenix
The Twitter-sphere was about to burst last night after Eric Bledsoe saw only 5 minutes of action in the first half against the Lakers. Sure, he had two fouls and sure, Isaiah Thomas and Gerald Green were on fire, but come on Hornacek, give Bledsoe some minutes. I’ll end my rant there, but it feels good to vent as I’m sure I wasn’t the only one burned by Bledsoe last night.
Tonight the Suns take on the Grizzlies who, as mentioned above, love to establish their slow pace of play. The Grizzlies are also one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. Even though the Suns are projected to score 97 points tonight, they are better suited as tournament plays rather than cash game plays in this matchup.
Prime Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Eric Bledsoe – Recency bias and a bad matchup will assure Bledsoe’s low ownership percentage tonight. It can often pay off to zig while everyone else is zagging. Bledsoe has a ton of upside and no one will be on him tonight which makes him an interesting tournament play.
Markieff Morris – Zach Randolph’s defensive struggles get hidden by the great team defense of the Grizzlies. Morris is a player that can score on the perimeter and in the post and may be able to use his quickness to beat Randolph to the bucket tonight.
Cleveland at Utah
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -5, 202 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Waiters-James-Love-Varejao
- Utah Proj. Starters – Trey Burke-Alec Burks-Gordon Hayward-Derrick Favors-Enes Kanter
| Cleveland | Utah | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 202 |  | Vegas Total | 202 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.5 | Team Proj. | 98.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.61 | Team Pace | 94.86 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | Dion Waiters | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Anderson Varejao | Proj Starter | Trey Burke | Alec Burks | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Enes Kanter | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 17 | 26 | 19 | 6 | Opp. Season | 12 | 18 | 28 | 12 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 17 | 26 | 12 | 6 | Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 18 | 28 | 19 | 7 | |
Cleveland
LeBron James is hurt. LeBron James is trying to teach his teammates a lesson. LeBron James’ skills are diminishing. As Aaron Rodgers would say, R-E-L-A-X people. It’s only been three games. LeBron and Cavs are going to get it figured out, just be patient. Tonight the Cavs head to Utah to take on the Jazz in the second half of a back-to-back. The Jazz play at a slow pace, but are ranked as the second least efficient team on the defensive side of the floor so the Cavs should have no problems scoring tonight. The Jazz are a tough team to beat at home, but I’m expecting a strong bounce back game from James and company.
Prime Plays
Kevin Love – Love’s price is down from where it was last season and so are his ownership levels. Everyone seems to be taking a wait and see approach with the Cavs, but if we’ve learned anything from their first three games, it’s that Love is going to be heavily involved in the offense and he’s going to easily average double-digit rebounds again this season. Love draws a nice matchup against the Jazz whose interior defense could use some work (I’m looking at you Enes Kanter).
Secondary Plays
LeBron James – On a night with a full slate of games, LeBron is not a must play by any means. But there are a lot of value plays on the board and LeBron could be a nice superstar to build your team around.
Utah
I seem to give the same intro to the Jazz every time they are on the schedule. They are a talented, young team that is going to play well at home and be on the wrong end of quite a few blowouts on the road. Tonight they are 5-point underdogs against the Cavs in a game that features a total of 202 points. The Cavs have played at a surprisingly slow pace this season averaging only 92.6 possessions per 48 minutes, but they have really struggled on the defensive end of the floor which opens up a few fantasy options on the Jazz tonight.
Prime Plays
Alec Burks – Burks has scored double-digit points every game so far this season. He has also played in at least 32 minutes in three of the first four games of the season. As long as he continues to see a good chuck of minutes, he will continue to rack up the fantasy points. Burks can fill up the stat sheet and has a good size advantage over the much smaller Dion Waiters. My bold prediction of the night is that he outscores Gordon Hayward.
Secondary Plays
Derrick Favors – The two knocks that I have on Favors are his minutes and his consistency. His minutes have ranged from 26 to 35 and his fantasy points have ranged from 10 to 52 (FD scoring). While I love his talent, he is a better tournament play than cash game play at this point.
Gordon Hayward – Hayward is off to a fast start this season. He is averaging 18 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assists per game after signing a big contract in the off-season. The only thing holding him back from being a ‘prime play’ is his matchup against LeBron James.