NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, October 29th- Page Two
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Chicago at New York
- Vegas Line – Chicago -4, 186.5 Over/Under
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Snell-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
- New York Proj. Starters – Calderon-Smith-Anthony-Bargnani-Dalembert
| Chicago | New York | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 186 |  | Vegas Total | ||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | Vegas Sprd | ||||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.25 | Team Proj. | ||||||||||
| Team Pace | 93.22 | Team Pace | 92.73 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Jimmy Butler | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | Proj Starter | Jose Calderon | J.R. Smith | Carmelo Anthony | Andrea Bargnani | Samuel Dalembert | |
| Opp. Season | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Opp. Season | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Opp. Last 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Opp. Last 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Chicago
The Bulls enter the season with high hopes as they have a currently healthy Derrick Rose and newly acquired Pau Gasol. They will be without Jimmy Butler though as he is dealing with a thumb injury. While a star-studded Bulls’ lineup is certainly intriguing, they may not be the best source of fantasy production. Coach Thibs recently said that Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah will both play around 30-34 minutes per game to start the season. Pau Gasol will also likely be on a similar minutes count considering his age and the fact that they need to get Taj Gibson minutes. Unlike seasons in the past, we are going to see balanced minutes distribution fro the Bulls.
Prime Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Derrick Rose – As mentioned above, Rose is not going to play more than 34 minutes tonight which does cap his upside a bit. That said, he’s looked great in the preseason and he has to be itching to get out there and prove that he’s back to 100%. He draws a very favorable matchup against Jose Calderon who has never been known for his defense.
Pau Gasol – Gasol is always a favorite target of mine because he can do a little bit of everything on the floor. He fills up all areas of the stat sheet and is more consistent than some of the other options at center. That said, he’s probably more of a GPP play tonight in his first game with the Bulls.
New York
The Knicks re-signed Carmelo Anthony which basically guarantees them a 5-8 seed in the East for the next few years. The Knicks were a good team defensively last season, but a lot of that was due to the play of Tyson Chandler. He’s now in Dallas so the Knicks will turn to veteran Samuel Dalembert at center. With a new roster, a new offense, and a tough matchup against the Bulls, the Knicks are an easy team to avoid tonight.
Prime Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Carmelo Anthony – Melo is worth a look as a tournament play tonight. A lot of people like to target star players in tough matchups because their ownership levels will be extremely low, yet they still have that high ceiling. This may be a new offense, but Melo will still get his shots in.
Minnesota at Memphis
- Vegas Line – Memphis -8.5, 196.5 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Wiggins-Young-Pekovic
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Pondexter-Randolph-Gasol
| Minnesota | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196 |  | Vegas Total | 196 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.50 | Vegas Sprd | -8.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94 | Team Proj. | 102.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.15 | Team Pace | 91.93 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ricky Rubio | Kevin Martin | Andrew Wiggins | Thaddeus Young | Nikola Pekovic | Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Vince Carter | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Opp. Season | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Opp. Last 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Opp. Last 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Minnesota
The Wolves are expected to start Ricky Rubio, Kevin Martin, Thaddeus Young, Nikola Pekovic, and either Andrew Wiggins or Corey Brewer. On the surface, their starting five doesn’t look nearly as bad as many expected after the Wolves traded away their franchise player Kevin Love. The Wolves have a lot of young talent, but it’s going to be a steep learning curve for this team. They will be on the wrong end of quite a few blowouts this season. Tonight’s matchup against the Grizzlies leaves much to be desired as the Grizzlies have a top five defense and play at a pace below the league average.
Prime Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Nikola Pekovic – Pek is the one Wolves player that I am giving roster consideration to. He is a handful to deal with down low and has had quite a few monster fantasy outings without Love in the lineup over the last couple of years. Pekovic is a better GPP play though as he draws a tough matchup against former Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol.
Memphis
The Grizzlies roster is very similar to the one that led them to the playoffs last season. They did add Vince Carter as a weapon off the bench and they’ll start Quincy Pondexter at SF. If you have never played daily fantasy basketball before, you’ll quickly realize that seeing the Grizzlies on the schedule typically means avoiding both teams for fantasy purposes. They are a well-balanced team that gets production from all five starters. They are also a slow-paced team that prides itself in playing defense. That said, they do draw a favorable matchup against the Wolves tonight.
Prime Plays
Mike Conley – There are a few PG’s in the NBA that you always want to target players against, one of which is Ricky Rubio. He is a terrible defender that always seems to be out of position trying to go for steals. Conley averaged 17 points, 6 assists, and 3 rebounds per game last season and should post a similar stat line tonight against the Wolves.
Secondary Plays
Marc Gasol – I somewhat expect Gasol and Pekovic to cancel each other out tonight, but if you like to target consistency at the center position, there are few players more consistent than Gasol. He’s a polished offensive player and one of the better defensive players in the NBA.
Zach Randolph – Randolph will be matched up against Thaddeus Young who played on the worst defensive team in the league last season. Look for Z-Bo to have his way down low.
Detroit at Denver
- Vegas Line – Denver -6.5, 208 Over/Under
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Caldwell-Pope-Singler-Smith-Drummond
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Afflalo-Gallinari-Faried-Mozgov
| Detroit | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208 |  | Vegas Total | 208 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.75 | Team Proj. | 107.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.68 | Team Pace | 98.24 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Brandon Jennings | Jodie Meeks | Josh Smith | Greg Monroe | Andre Drummond | Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Arron Afflalo | Danilo Gallinari | Kenneth Faried | Timofey Mozgov | |
| Opp. Season | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Opp. Season | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Opp. Last 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Opp. Last 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Detroit
The Pistons will be without Greg Monroe as he is suspended for the first two games of the season. The Pistons will start Josh Smith at PF. The Pistons have had a lot of talent for the past couple of years, but have yet to do anything with it. We will see if Stan Van Gundy can whip these guys into shape. The Pistons are one of the top teams to target tonight as they face the fast-paced Nuggets in a game that features a total of 206.5 points.
Prime Plays
Andre Drummond – One of the more common themes in daily fantasy basketball last season was targeting bigs against the Nuggets. They had little to no interior defense and nothing suggests that it will be any different this season. With Monroe suspended, Drummond could realistically rack up 20 rebounds tonight against Denver. He should be a lock for a double-double and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 20/20 performance out of him.
Josh Smith – Smith (J-Smoove) should get off to a fast start this season with Monroe suspended. His start at PF should help his rebounding totals for the first couple of games. It also sounds like Smith is looking to attack the rim more this season rather than spot up on the three-point line which was infuriating for fantasy owners last season. Smith can fill up all areas of the stat sheet and should have his fingerprints all over this game.
Secondary Plays
Brandon Jennings – Jennings was a very inconsistent fantasy player last season. Part of that was due to the fact that the Pistons would seemingly take unscheduled nights off. He’s not a trusted play in cash games, but does make for a nice tournament play against Ty Lawson and the Nuggets.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – There is enough value on the board that you don’t have to turn to Caldwell-Pope, but he’s a solid scorer in what should be a shootout. He offers nice upside at a near-minimum salary.
Denver
If you read my Daily Fantasy Basketball 101 column, then you know how much I love Javale McGee. He’s not expected to be anything other than a role player this season, but there certainly won’t be a dull moment in the Nuggets locker room. The Nuggets open their season with a juicy matchup against the Pistons who were one of the worst teams defensively last season. The Nuggets have a fairly formidable starting five of Ty Lawson, Aaron Afflalo, Danilo Gallinari, Kenneth Faried, and Timofey Mozgov.
Prime Plays
Kenneth Faried – After a strong performance in the summer for Team USA, there are high hopes for the “manimal” heading into the season. Faried is a high-energy player, whose stats typically depend on game flow, but he does have a good offensive game and he’s usually good for double-digit rebounds when given big minutes. Tonight, he’ll be matched up with Josh Smith who, to put it nicely, is a lazy defender.
Secondary Plays
Ty Lawson – Lawson is tentatively expected to play tonight against the Pistons. As long as he gets the green light, he’s a solid tournament play as the Pistons were awful against opposing PG’s last season.
Aaron Afflalo – Afflalo is an underrated player heading into the season. He was extremely productive on the Magic over the last couple of years and now gets to play in a fast-paced Nuggets offense.
Houston at Utah
- Vegas Line – Houston -3.5, 199.5 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Jones-Howard
- Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Burks-Hayward-Kanter-Favors
| Houston | Utah | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199 |  | Vegas Total | 199 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -3.50 | Vegas Sprd | 3.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.5 | Team Proj. | 98 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.24 | Team Pace | 93.85 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Terrence Jones | Dwight Howard | Proj Starter | Trey Burke | Alec Burks | Gordon Hayward | Enes Kanter | Derrick Favors | |
| Opp. Season | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Opp. Season | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Opp. Last 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Opp. Last 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Houston
The Rockets made quick work of the Lakers last night in what turned out to be a route. The most interesting part of the game was the scuffle between Kobe Bryant and Dwight Howard. I loved seeing Kobe call Dwight soft after taking not one, but two elbows to the face. There really wasn’t anything else that stood out last night other than the fact that the Rockets have a lot of talent and will likely take turns having big fantasy outings. Tonight the Rockets are 3 point favorites against a young Jazz team. The total is set at 202 points, but this will likely be a pace-down game for the Rockets.
Prime Plays
James Harden – Harden got off to a blazing start last night by scoring 32 points and dishing out 6 assists in only three quarters of work. He wants to prove that he’s the best player in the NBA and to do so, he’s going to need plenty of repeat performances. Tonight he squares off against a very young Jazz team that is playing under a new head coach. Harden should have no problem getting the rim tonight. As long as this game stays fairly close, he could challenge for the top scoring player in DFS tonight.
Terrence Jones – Jones turned out to be one of the best plays on the board last night. He finished with 16 points, 13 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 blocks, and 2 steals against the Lakers. His price on most sites doesn’t reflect his performance last night as leagues were posted before the games started. Take advantage of the discount with Jones and plug him in as a solid play in all league formats.
Secondary Plays
Dwight Howard – Dwight got into foul trouble early and never really recovered after that. The masses will likely overlook him tonight which leaves him as a nice upside play with a low ownership percentage.
Utah
Being a Jazz fan, I’m excited to see if their young talent can come together and develop some chemistry this season. There are quite a few teams projected to win less than 30 teams this season, but the Jazz have arguably the best short-term future of the bunch. The Jazz will start Trey Burke, Alec Burks, Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors, and Enes Kanter. That’s a quality starting five. Tonight they face the Rockets who are one of the fastest-paced teams in the league. The Jazz typically play well at home and should be able to keep this one close.
Prime Plays
Alec Burks – The two weakest positions on the Rockets defensively are at SG and PF. Beverley, Ariza, and Dwight are all good defenders, but the same can’t be said for James Harden. Burks has a ton of talent and should improve on his numbers from last season. He has played well in the preseason and could end up leading the Jazz in scoring tonight in what should be a fast-paced game.
Secondary Plays
Gordon Hayward – While the Rockets have gotten better defensively, they still play at a fast pace which leads to more possessions per game for their opponents. Hayward is a stat-stuffer with an extremely high ceiling.
Enes Kanter – Nothing is confirmed, but last season when these two teams met up, Favors was defended by Dwight and Kanter got to face a the much easier opponent in Terrence Jones. If that’s the case tonight, Kanter could be a solid value play at center.
L.A. Lakers at Phoenix
- Vegas Line – Phoenix -12.5, 207.5 Over/Under
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Lin-Bryant-Johnson-Boozer-Hill
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Bledsoe-Morris-Morris-Plumlee
| L.A. Lakers | Phoenix | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207 |  | Vegas Total | 207 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 12.5 | Vegas Sprd | -12.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.5 | Team Proj. | 110.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.23 | Team Pace | 97.99 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Steve Nash | Kobe Bryant | Wes Johnson | Carlos Boozer | Jordan Hill | Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Eric Bledsoe | P.J. Tucker | Markieff Morris | Miles Plumlee | |
| Opp. Season | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Opp. Season | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Opp. Last 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Opp. Last 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
L.A. Lakers
The Lakers couldn’t have looked worse in their season opener last night against the Rockets. Even though the loss was bad enough, the Lakers lost rookie Julius Randle to a leg injury that is expected to keep him out for at least four months. The Lakers are playing in a back to back situation and the line for this game has moved all the way up to 12.
Prime Plays
Carlos Boozer – Boozer was really the only Lakers player to have a decent fantasy outing last night as they were trounced by the Rockets. He should get plenty of opportunities to post big numbers this season, especially with rookie Julius Randle going down with a broken tibia. Boozer will likely see upwards of 35 minutes per game which is more than enough time for him to post quality numbers.
Secondary Plays
Jeremy Lin – Lin was a big disappointment in DFS last night. He got into early foul trouble and the Lakers never got into any kind of rhythm offensively. Lin is still going to see the lion’s share of minutes at PG and we’ve seen what he can do with a full complement of minutes in the past.
Phoenix
Many are expecting the Suns to take a step back this season after making the playoffs in the very tough Western Conference. I’m torn on the Suns as they are a talented young team that’s unfortunate to play in the West. Either way, all we really care about is their outlook for tonight’s game against the Lakers. Matchup-wise, this is one that you can exploit. The Lakers were one of the worst defenses in the NBA last season and the addition of Jeremy Lin and Carlos Boozer will do little to help their defensive woes. The only concern here is a potential blowout.
Prime Plays
Eric Bledsoe – While I do like Harden tonight at SG, I’ll likely end up taking the discount with Bledsoe instead. He has similar upside to Harden and is priced much lower than him. After signing a big contract in the offseason, there are big expectations on Bledsoe. He’s an electric young player that is perfect for daily fantasy basketball as he can fill up all areas of the stat sheet. He will have a big mismatch against Kobe Bryant who has obviously lost a step defensively.
Secondary Plays
Goran Dragic – Targeting PG’s against Jeremy Lin is just too easy. The Dragon’s fantasy value is hurt a bit with Bledsoe sharing the ball-handling duties, but the matchup is too good to pass up.
Markieff Morris – Markieff is the better fantasy play of the Morris twins, but he’s also a lot more expensive. Morris is a big man that can shoot as well as post up. Expect him to get off to a fast start against Boozer and the Lakers.
Marcus Morris – P.J. Tucker is suspended which means Marcus will draw the start at SF. He should see around 30 minutes of action against an awful defense. That’s about all you can ask for from a player at his price point.