NFL Grind Down: Week 10 - Page Three

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-11-09 15:50:03

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens

Tennessee Titans						Baltimore Ravens
Sun – 1:00 PM						M&T Bank Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		9.5	43.5	17				-9.5	43.5	26.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	17.1	29	26	23		Offense	26.7	8	13	9
Defense	26.7	8	13	9		Defense	17.1	29	26	23
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Baltimore Ravens	20	2	31	6		Tennessee Titans	11	24	16	19
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Wright	53	35	4	350		Smith	48	22	5	371
Washington	33	17	0	237		Smith	77	46	4	711
Hunter	48	20	2	351		Brown	11	8	0	75
Walker	58	35	4	475		Daniels	45	33	3	328

Quick Grind

•Low Vegas total with the Ravens heavily favored
•Target the Ravens Defense
•Ravens GPP Special: WR Torrey Smith
•Titans GPP Special: WR Justin Hunter

Tennessee Titans

WR Justin Hunter — $5400 — 9.0% of cap — 52nd-most expensive WR

Hunter led the Titans in targets in Week 8, converting 10 mostly inaccurate Mettenberger bullets into 4 catches for 31 yards and a TD. I think Hunter has a chance to be a relevant weekly tournament option now that Mettenberger is the Titans QB, and the WR prototype will get a chance to prove me right this week against a Ravens that was just bombed for 6 TDs by Ben Roethlisberger. Yes, the Ravens are at home, are probably pissed, and are poised for a bounceback on defense. They’ve also lost shutdown CB Jimmy Smith for the year, and showed last week that they can be picked apart without him. Hunter should again receive a large helping of MettenBURGERS this week, and his big-play and red-zone potential make him an upside WR play.

The Rest of the Titans Passing Attack

Beyond Hunter, it’s hard to endorse any Titans receivers this week. Especially considering that Nate Washington of all people led the team in receiveing (4-68). And all he usually does is block. TE Delanie Walker received the 2nd-most targets, and got the other Mettenberger TD. Still, his price remains somewhat high, and the Ravens allow the 6th-fewest FPPG to TEs. Kendall Wright is in limbo as an underneath receiver with a big-armed, vertical-happy QB. Avoid him until we see him better utilized.

RB Bishop Sankey — $5200 — 8.67% of cap — 47th-most expensive RB

Sankey managed just 35 rushing yards on limited touches last week, but was at least featured in the passing game. This week he is completely hands off though against a Ravens defense that grades out as the 3rd-best run defense unit and allows the 2nd-fewest FPPG to RBs.

QB Zach Mettenberger — $6100 — 10.17% of cap — 30th-most expensive QB

The Age of Mettenberger got off to a good start in the box score (299 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT), but not so much on the field. Mettenberger misfired constantly at every level, but he at least also showed off his cannon arm that just might be able to make Titans receivers DFS relevant again. Although the Ravens defense was just ripped apart by Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers, I wouldn’t get cute and think Mettenberger will bomb them too. The Ravens will be pissed about last week, and their pass-rush should devour the rookie signal-caller. Look elsewhere for a punt QB this week.

Baltimore Ravens

RB Justin Forsett — $6500 — 10.83% of cap — 21st-most expensive RB (great value!)

Forsett had a disappointing performance as a runner last week, but the Ravens were forced to scrap the run game entirely as Ben Roethlisberger rained scores down on them. The Ravens will get back to their efficient rushing attack this week, and should see a favorable game script that allows Forsett to rack up the carries. And while the Titans have shown capable of shutting down struggling running games, they’ve also been generous to teams with strong run-blocking. The Ravens fit that criteria, grading out as the 3rd-best run-blocking team in the NFL. With the Titans allowing 121.3 rushing yards per game to RBs, the most in the NFL, and the Ravens favored to be leading, Forsett makes a strong mid-range RB play this week.

WR Steve Smith — $6800 — 11.33% of cap — 16th-most expensive WR

Smith had another dud last week despite a favorable matchup (the OTHER Smith hit the big play I hoped Stevie would last week), and has predictably regressed as we assumed he would. Despite his recent struggles, Smith’s price remains a bit higher than it should be. He’ll tangle with Titans CB Jason McCourty this week. McCourty has been targeted and abused on several occasions, but has righted the ship a bit recently and allowed just 72 yards over the past two weeks. I’m not high on the elder Smith this week, and would suggest targeting Torrey Smith instead.

WR Torrey Smith — $5900 — 9.83% of cap — 41st-most expensive WR

I’ve been recommending Torrey Smith solely as a matchup-based tournament play this season, and this is one of those weeks. Why, you ask? Because everyone’s favorite hyphenated CB to target in DFS — Blidi Wreh-Wilson — is coming to town! After giving up another 85 yards to DeAndre Hopkins and the Texans in Week 8, BWW has now allowed 457 yards in his coverage and owns the 4th-worst coverage grade among qualified CBs. Smith should see BWW in coverage most often, which sets up nicely for a few Flacco Bombs. Smith is a high-upside tournament play this week.

TE Owen Daniels — $5400 — 9.0% of cap — 11th-most expensive TE

Daniels made a quick return from his knee scope last week and beat the Steelers LBs with ease on his way to 6-53 on 9 targets. His matchup doesn’t stand out – the Titans allow the 14th-most FPPG to TEs – but Daniels is in play as a mid-range TE option.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Atlanta Falcons						Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun – 1:00 PM						Raymond James Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-1	45.5	23.25				1	45.5	22.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	24.0	14	9	17		Offense	18.8	26	28	30
Defense	18.8	26	28	30		Defense	24.0	14	9	17
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	27	23	32	20		Atlanta Falcons	19	32	22	3
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Jones	83	53	3	734		Jackson	77	32	2	443
White	60	33	3	419		Evans	53	32	4	460
Douglas	22	15	1	163		Murphy	33	20	2	230
Toilolo	28	15	1	149		Myers	20	16	0	139

Quick Grind

•Week 3 rematch is basically a Vegas pick ‘em
•Falcons passing attack has monster upside, but considerable risk due to offensive line
•Bucs RB Bobby Rainey should start again and has the top RB matchup of Week 10

Atlanta Falcons

Key Injury Update: Bucs top CB Alterraun Verner is Doubtful to play. Upgrade the Falcons passing attack, specifically Roddy White

WR Julio Jones — $8000 — 13.33% of cap — 11th-most expensive WR

At night Julio Jones dreams of accurate, catchable passes. Those passes have become just a dream for Jones though, thanks to the Falcons’ injury-magnet offensive line, which cannot provide QB Matt Ryan the time required to throw deep. The Falcons have thus shifted to a short passing attack in which Jones must operate solely on shorter routes; his longest catch in Week 9 was a 22-yard screen pass. Of course, Jones eviscerated this defense earlier in the season to the tune of 9-161-2. He caught passes of at least 18 yards against 4 different Bucs. But with the state of the Falcons offensive line, I’m not sure Matt Ryan will have the time necessary to attack the Bucs vertically. Julio has extreme upside this week, but may not hit his ceiling due to the Falcons line struggles.

WR Roddy White — $6600 — 11.0% of cap — 21st-most expensive WR

White missed these teams’ Week 3 clash, but should be good to go this week. He’s coming off a 5-66 game and, like Julio Jones, is producing below his talents simply because Matt Ryan doesn’t have the time to get the ball out. He’ll also see top Bucs CB Alterraun Verner in coverage. Verner has allowed a whopping 596 yards and 5 TDs in this coverage this season. White has matchup upside and is a top-20 WR play this week.

QB Matt Ryan — $7800 — 13.0% of cap — 13th-most expensive QB

You might have noticed I’m not fond of the Falcons offensive line. I think it makes Ryan less automatic than others are making him out to be this week. However, just as the Falcons line problems are undeniable, so too are the coverage ineptitudes of the Bucs defense, which is allowing the 6th-most FPPG to QBs. Ryan is a reasonably-priced, high-upside play this week, but I worry about another second half collapse at the hands of the Falcons offensive line.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

WR Vincent Jackson — $6700 — 11.17% of cap — 18th-most expensive WR

Jackson caught 6 of his 12 scattershot targets for 86 yards vs the Browns in Week 9. But a new sun shines on VJax this week, as the scattershot accuracy of Mike Glennon is being replaced by… the scattershot accuracy of Josh McCown. I don’t think much has changed at all: VJax will still get a ton of targets, many of which will be uncatchable even for the 6’5 WR. Jackson will continue to provide modest production while teasing us with big-game potential. Although Jackson managed just 2-15-1 in the teams previous meeting, he’ll get another crack at the inconsistent Robert Alford in coverage. And while Mike Evans is the shiny object after his huge game last week, Jackson is the original Mike Evans, and offers just as much upside. He’s a strong tournament play this week.

WR Mike Evans — $6600 — 11.0% of cap — 22nd-most expensive WR

Mike Evans went off for 7 catches, 124 yards, and 2 TDs last week. And we recommended him based on this:

Ok, I’m going to try something new here: every week I’m going to try to feature a write-up done by one of our excellent bloggers. There’s a lot of great analysis being done in the blogs section of RG, so I want to shine a little light on it each week. Sometimes I’ll feature a write-up because I think it’s particularly sharp analysis; other times just because it has a certain style or flair.

Our first feature comes from RG user sgaffney’s blog entitled “Week 8 round up: Jordy Nelson stole my $1,000,000.” Check the whole thing out here.

Sometimes you pick players because of stats, sometimes it’s because in the game you watched that player just looked awesome, sometimes it’s a good matchup and other times you pick players because they looked unbelievably athletic jumping over the hood of a car in a TMZ video of a brawl outside a nightclub. That is why I’m picking Evans. Also he’s one of the few Bucs players that haven’t been involved in trade rumors lately so, ya know, that’s something.

Beyond being a hilariously coincidental pick last week, Evans demonstrated the value of taking tournament-only risks on players that have multi-TD potential. He’s a threat to replicate that performance in almost any game, though the shift to a new QB will undoubtedly affect his rhythm in the short term. Evans should also see top Falcons CB Desmond Trufant this week, which likely lowers his floor. Expect growing pains with the shift back to McCown, but sprinkle Evans among your tournament lineups nonetheless.

RB Bobby Rainey — $6700 — 11.17% of cap — 18th-most expensive RB (good value)

Rainey never seems to disappoint when he has the RB job to himself, and last week was no exception; he ripped the Browns for 121 total yards last week, most of which he racked up in the first half. Unfortunately the Bucs, having no intention of actually winning games or making intelligent football decisions, kinda just forgot about Rainey after halftime.

Now Rainey gets a matchup with the Football Gods’ gift to RBs – the Atlanta Falcons. Just how bad are the Falcons against RBs, you ask? I’m glad you asked, because I was itching to make another table:

I’m not sure how it’s possible to be dead last in so many categories, but neither Bobby Rainey nor I are complaining. Rainey makes an excellent value play vs the Falcons this week.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders

Denver Broncos						Oakland Raiders
Sun – 4:05 PM						O.co Coliseum
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-11	49	30				11	49	19
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	30.6	3	1	18		Offense	16.1	31	27	32
Defense	16.1	31	27	32		Defense	30.6	3	1	18
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Oakland Raiders	9	31	7	13		Denver Broncos	29	10	19	26
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Thomas	87	54	6	894		Jones	59	39	3	443
Sanders	76	57	4	785		Holmes	46	25	4	400
Welker	32	22	1	212		Moore	25	11	0	87
Thomas	44	32	10	360		Rivera	44	28	2	222

Quick Grind

•High Vegas total + huge favorites = TARGET THE BRONCOS
•Both the Broncos passing and rushing attacks have excellent matchups
•Don’t forget about the Broncos Defense too!

Denver Broncos

QB Peyton Manning — $10000— 16.67% of cap — 2nd-most expensive QB

Peyton Manning’s only limitation in this game is if he racks up 2-3 TDs without big yardage, and the Broncos take their foot off the gas. Seriously, the Raiders injury-ravaged secondary has no chance of competing with the Broncos receivers. Manning is the top QB play this week.

Broncos WRs

Demaryius Thomas — $9000 — 15.0% of cap — 2nd-most expensive WR
Emmanuel Sanders — $8600 — 14.33% of cap — 6th-most expensive WR

Both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are elite plays this week. Despite the Raiders allowing the 7th-fewest FPPG to WRs, they grade out as the 12th-worst team in pass coverage. As I say every week, their strong paper rankings are fueled by opposing teams electing to run the ball against them instead. Demaryius is a top-3 option with immense upside, and Sanders isn’t far behind him.

TE Julius Thomas — $7300 — 12.17% of cap — 2nd-most expensive TE

The Raiders appear to be tough vs the TE, but their DVP ranking is mainly fueled by facing the John Carlson’s and Luke Willson’s of the world. They don’t have the personnel to mark Orange Julius. He’s the top TE play this week.

RB Ronnie Hillman — $7400 — 12.33% of cap — 10th-most expensive RB

Update: The Broncos will reportedly use a ‘hot hand’ approach at RB. It’s possible other RBs could threaten Hillman’s carries

Pay attention to news on the Broncos backfield this week as Montee Ball has returned to practice. However, Ball himself has said that Hillman has taken the starting job from him. If Hillman is confirmed to be the volume back this week he’s got a dream matchup with a Raiders defense that allows the 2nd-most FPPG to RBs and was just run over for 143 yards and 2 TDs by Marshawn Lynch. Hillman is a top-10 play with big-time upside due to the matchup.

Oakland Raiders

Garbage Time Raiders

Andre Holmes — $6400 — 10.67% of cap — 32nd-most expensive WR
James Jones — $5400 — 9.0% of cap — 53rd-most expensive WR

While I think both Andre Holmes and James Jones are likely to be locked down for the majority of this game, they also could rack up stats quickly in garbage time. As usual, Andre Holmes is your best bet for big plays, while James Jones is has a higher floor but lower ceiling. Both are risky tournament options.

TE Mychal Rivera

Key Injury Alert: LB Danny Trevathan, LB Nate Irving

Rivera is a matchup play this week vs the Broncos, who allow the 7th-most FPPG to TEs. The Broncos are also without ILB Danny Trevathan, and may not have LB Nate Irving either. Though Rivera is a mediocre talent, the Broncos injury issues at LB make him an intriguing punt TE.

RB Darren McFadden — $6100 — 10.17% of cap — 34th-most expensive RB

Darren McFadden runs behind the 2nd-worst run-blocking offensive line and faces the team that has the 2nd-best run-defense grade and allows the FEWEST rushing yards to RBs. There’s nothing left to see here.

NFL Grind Down Page 3 – Page 4