NFL Grind Down: Week 14 - Page Four

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-12-07 15:13:10

St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins

St. Louis Rams						Washington Redskins
Sun – 1:00 PM						FedExField
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-2.5	44.5	23.5				2.5	44.5	21
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.8	16	26	15		Offense	20.3	22	17	12
Defense	20.3	22	17	12		Defense	21.8	16	26	15
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Washington Redskins	32	4	23	28		St. Louis Rams	18	9	27	5
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Britt	54	28	3	490		Garcon	77	49	3	507
Austin	35	25	0	183		Jackson	78	47	5	942
Bailey	29	20	1	275		Roberts	62	30	2	340
Cook	71	37	1	473		Reed	40	33	0	352

Quick Grind

•Will the Rams defense feast again this week?
•Keep an eye on Redskins WR DeSean Jackson’s health
•Target the Rams playmakers

St. Louis Rams

RB Tre Mason

I hope last week’s silly “A Comprehensive List of Reasons to Roster Tre Mason” table was enough to sway you into rostering the rookie runner, because Tre Mason was the rug that really tied the room together last week. The Rams Rookie stampeded for 164 total yards and 3 TDs (on just 17 touches!) against the dejected Raiders, showcasing a skillset that leapt off the screen and into our hearts. To be fair though, outside his 89-yard TD eruption, Mason only managed 13-28 on the ground. So it wasn’t perfect… but hey look 3 touchdowns!

This week Mason faces the enigmatic Redskins defense. You can look at the Skins run defense one of two ways. The first way: where we say they’re a ‘tough’ matchup because they allow the 6th-fewest FPPG to opposing RBs. Or the second way: where we question their sturdiness against the run because they grade out as the 3rd-WORST run defense squad on PFF. I lean toward the latter. Mason remains a strong play considering his anticipated heavy workload and the sheep-in-wolves clothing run defense he’s about to face.

The Stedman Bailey Experience

Stedman Bailey was scorching early in the game last week, with 5 catches for 100 yards through just one quarter! Unfortunately that’s also what he ended with. Nonetheless, it seems clear that Bailey is taking full advantage of finally getting a chance to shine. And in a normal Rams game, one where the passing attack doesn’t have the luxury of just taking a nap for the entire second half, Bailey figures to a key component to any success through the air. And wouldn’t ya know it, here comes the defense that grades out as PFF’s 2nd-worst coverage unit, and is fresh off a 350+ yard 5-TD detonation by Andrew Luck that featured countless broken coverages and wide open TDs. It’s an excellent spot for Sted, who makes for a sneaky salary relief WR.

The Rest of the Rams Passing Attack

Because the Redskins are on deck, everyone from Kenny Britt to Jared Cook deserves a look in this game. Don’t get too carried away with a multi-Ram stack, but keep these Rams in mind if you need a low-salary fill-in this week.

Washington Redskins

QB Colt McCoy

Colt McCoy looked like the Redskins QB of the Future last week (kidding), with his 392 yards and his 3 passing TDs against the Colts (we won’t mention the crippling mistakes and lack of pocket awareness). He deserves mention as a punt QB this week considering both that his price didn’t shoot up as far as fellow cheapo QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, and that he faces a more favorable paper matchup (Rams allowing the 7th-most FPPG to QBs). But what that paper DVP ranking doesn’t tell you is the absolute reign of terror the Rams defensive line is on right now. Colt is still a viable punt as I mentioned, but know that you’re playing with fire when taking a QB vs this elite pass-rushing defensive line.

RB Alfred Morris

I voiced my concerns over Morris w/o RG3 at the helm on last week’s Friday NFL show, and Alf predictably returned to pedestrian production: just 83 yards on 20 touches. Morris is very easy to understand, though. He’s volume-dependent and TD-dependent. If the game script isn’t favorable, and if he doesn’t figure to get many chances near the goal-line, he’s just going to give you an empty rushing line. Against a resurgent Rams defensive front, I don’t like Morris this week.

WR DeSean Jackson

Once again, DJax didn’t miss a beat with Colt McCoy under center – kudos to those who trusted the limited data and went with Jackson last week while most were scared off. Unfortunately, Jackson didn’t make it through the game unscathed, and will be the dreaded GTD this week. I’m not sure how limited Jackson would be if he tried to play through his injury, but he’s certainly worth a look in tournaments if he’s able to play.

TE Jordan Reed

Oh THERE’S the athletic matchup nightmare we all remember from last season. Gonna keep this quick because Reed might tweak his hammy before I’m done writing: the Rams are lockdown vs TEs but Reed’s athleticism and usage should mean he maintains a solid floor this week.

WR Pierre Garcon

Pierre Garcon is really only interesting if DeSean Jackson is unable to play.

Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals

Kansas City Chiefs						Arizona Cardinals
Sun – 4:05 PM						Univ. of Phoenix Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		0	40	20				0	40	20
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	23.1	15	27	2		Offense	21.5	18	14	30
Defense	21.5	18	14	30		Defense	23.1	15	27	2
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Arizona Cardinals	9	2	20	26		Kansas City Chiefs	8	11	9	10
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Bowe	72	46	0	569		Fitzgerald	69	46	2	658
Avery	26	15	0	176		Floyd	69	31	4	507
Hammond	9	3	0	38		Brown	76	39	5	569
Kelce	57	44	4	578		Carlson	48	28	1	317

Quick Grind

•Lowest Vegas total suggests defensive struggle and limited DFS appeal
•The Cardinals offense is a mess

Kansas City Chiefs

RB Jamaal Charles

I’m not sure what Charles did to deserve the murderer’s row of stonewall run defenses he’s faced seemingly all season (NYJ, BUF, SEA, DEN in 4 of last 5) – but it sure hasn’t seemed to bother him. If anything, Charles has done better against the league’s top run defenses than he has against the weaker ones. Well this week he gets his crack at the team allowing just 66.9 rushing yards per game and the FEWEST FPPG to RBs – the Arizona Cardinals. I don’t think there’s any chance the Cards hold Charles to just 66 rushing yards, but the Vegas line doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence in the Chiefs offense, either. I think Charles will be supremely underowned due both to his matchup and the perception of his elite RB peers this week. So if you want to be contrarian in a tournament, JC is a guy that can transcend any matchup with just a handful of touches. I would look to other elite RBs in cash games though.

TE Travis Kelce

If you’re still rostering Travis Kelce every week and hoping for a breakout – you’re just a masochist. But surely THIS favorable matchup (Cardinals allow the 11th-most FPPG to TEs) is the one, right?

WR Dwayne Bowe

Richard Sherman. (Raiders). Aqib Talib/Chris Harris Jr. Patrick Peterson/Antonio Cromartie.

Facing stud CBs seemingly every week for the last month, Dwayne Bowe just can’t catch a break (or a ball). Yes, Julio Jones took Patrick Peterson behind the woodshed last week… but Dwayne Bowe is no Julio Jones. It’s best we AGAIN avoid Bowe until he faces less formidable cover men.

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals RBs

Andre Ellington’s fresh new hip injury means the one consistent aspect of the Cardinals offense will now become a murky mess. Thankfully, HC Bruce Arians has already declared RB Stepfan Taylor the starter this week… but what does that actually say about Taylor’s workload? I don’t trust that such a mediocre talent like Taylor would immediately monopolize the backfield in Ellington’s absence. Unfortunately the only competition Taylor has is Marion Grice (who runs 4.68) and maybe Michael Bush (who is a short-yardage ram). It’s a situation to avoid in DFS.

The Cardinals WRs

To put it simply: Drew Stanton is a horrible quarterback.

If the Cardinals WRs weren’t able to absolutely roast the pathetic Falcons defense last week, I don’t like their chances against the secondary that grades out as the league’s 4th-best coverage unit on PFF. Sure, John Brown or Michael Floyd could go off in any given week if Stanton is able to get them the ball (far from a guarantee), but both the matchup and the game’s Vegas total suggests this isn’t the week to trust the Cardinals passing attack.

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos

Buffalo Bills						Denver Broncos
Sun – 4:05 PM						Mile High Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		9.5	47.5	19				-9.5	47.5	28.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	18.8	27	23	31		Offense	30.1	5	1	19
Defense	30.1	5	1	19		Defense	18.8	27	23	31
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Denver Broncos	27	5	14	27		Buffalo Bills	7	3	13	8
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Watkins	93	48	5	660		Thomas	137	88	10	1255
Woods	71	40	2	432		Sanders	116	82	7	1152
Hogan	35	27	3	315		Welker	49	35	2	294
Chandler	48	29	1	309		Thomas	54	40	12	426

Quick Grind

•Denver should stomp
•Tough matchup for Broncos RB CJ Anderson
•Keep an eye on Broncos TE Julius Thomas’ health
•Avoid the Bills

Buffalo Bills

WR Sammy Watkins

Yikes, again. Prior to last week, Watkins has now been held to 4 or less catches and less than 36 yards in each of his last 3 games. And then he disappointed even further with just 3 catches for 11 yards last week. Adding injury to insult, Sammy has been limited in practice this week. The last thing the rook needs is to be physically limited against one of the top CB duos in the NFL. It’s unclear who the Broncos will shadow Sammy with: Aqib Talib or Chris Harris. Regardless, I would stay far, far away from Sammy for the Nth straight game. I’ll let you know when it’s safe to come back out.

WR Robert Woods

Robert Woods has been a sneaky DFS play the last few weeks as we’ve tried to take advantage of defenses focusing on Sammy Watkins instead. but the Broncos are a unique beast in that they can lock down BOTH WRs at once. I would just avoid Bills WRs entirely this week.

The Stable of Bills RBs

RB Fred Jackson appears to have reclaimed his lead back role after handling 24 touches and tallying 97 total yards last week. Unfortunately now Jackson has to carry the load against the defense that allows just 52 rushing yards per game to RBs – the fewest in the league. To me, the ENTIRE Bills offense is a fade this week. But if you’re the brave sort, Jackson seems to be the Bills RB you want to own.

Denver Broncos

QB Peyton Manning

With the Bills allowing the 3rd-fewest FPPG to opposing QBs and grading out as a top-6 coverage unit on PFF, I’m ultimately unsure how best to attack this defense. They’re just as tough vs the run. The one thing I can say is that certain members of the secondary can be and have been exploited through the air. And we know how much Peyton loves to hammer soft matchups in coverage. Given the matchup, I think Peyton is best used as a tournament QB this week, and he may even be underowned to boot.

Broncos WRs

The Demaryius Thomas vs Stephon Gilmore battle should be a fun one to watch… but I’m just not sure Gilmore has any chance. Thomas’s dominance this season has been simply incredible: 11 games of 9+ targets, 7 games of 100+ yards, and already 10 TDs on the season. Just, wow. Yes, the price is steep this week – but that’s what happens when a WR goes from a streak of 7 straight 100+ yard games, to ripping off 4 TDs in the last two games alone. Thomas’ recent success is doubly impressive because the emergence of RB CJ Anderson has lessened the Broncos reliance on the passing game the past two weeks. But it hasn’t impacted Thomas’s supply; Peyton’s favorite target has still averaged 13 targets over the last 2 games, and has parlayed that into 16-150-4. The moral of the story here is that Thomas is going to get his supply, and if the rest of the season is any indication, he’s going to turn those targets into gaudy numbers.

As for Emmanuel Sanders, I’m actually avoiding him this week based on a matchup with the surprisingly lockdown coverage of Corey Graham. Roster Thomas instead.

RB CJ Anderson

In his last two games, Mr Anderson has 31-195-1 and 34-185-1. Wow. I talked at length about Anderson’s skillset on last week’s Friday NFL show, and my high opinion of this kid certainly didn’t diminish after he trounced the Chiefs last week. The Broncos have added a new and very dangerous dimension to their offense with Anderson, who I assure you is the realest of real deals. The only question this week is whether the Broncos will again ride their ground game against an exceptional Bills run defense. Regular readers know I’m awfully high on the Bills front-seven, specifically their defensive line. Their pass rush is what everyone wants to talk about, but the Bills also grade out as the 3rd-best run defense unit on PFF, and allow the 4th-fewest FPPG to opposing RBs. It will be tough sledding for Anderson… but that hasn’t slowed him down in the slightest the last few weeks. I would pivot to other RBs with less concerning matchups in cash games this week, but don’t forget about Anderson’s upside in tournaments.

TE Julius Thomas

Still don’t know Julius Thomas’ status for the week. He’s been practicing, but beat writers didn’t sound confident in his chances to play as of Friday. This section will be updated as more information becomes available!

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