NFL Grind Down: Week 15 - Page Two

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-12-14 15:41:31

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers					Carolina Panthers

Sun – 1:00 PM					Bank of America Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts	Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
Vegas Odds		5.5	42.5	18.5	Vegas Odds		-5.5	42.5	24
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush	Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	18.2	28	20	31	Offense	20.7	22	17	20
Defense	20.7	22	17	20	Defense	18.2	28	20	31
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE	Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Carolina Panthers	23	22	22	12	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	20	26	28	14
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards	Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Jackson	124	60	2	861	Benjamin	115	59	9	848
Evans	102	57	10	935	Cotchery	65	35	0	462
Murphy	55	31	2	380	Bersin	17	12	1	137
Seferian-Jenkins	38	21	2	221	Olsen	104	71	6	850

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

WR Mike Evans & WR Vincent Jackson

Tampa’s Twin Terrors are in consideration for tournaments as usual this week. Do note though that the Panthers have improved on defense and appear to have found a CB duo that isn’t playing among the worst in the NFL for once. QB Jake McCown sincerely doesn’t care who’s covering his monstrous WRs, so you can expect healthy target totals and red-zone opportunities as usual.

Carolina Panthers

QB Derek Anderson

Anderson figures to be reaaaaaaally popular as a min-priced QB on FD this week (he was the top owned QB in Thursday games according to this week’s Field Report. It would take a disaster for Anderson to NOT make value, and the salary relief you get allows you to build completely ridiculous lineups. If you’re looking for value at QB, Anderson is your guy.

WR Kelvin Benjamin

Another week, another TD, and more drops for Kelvin Benjamin. He should cause problems for the Bucs Cover 2 defense, and also ripped these same Bucs for 6-92-1 with Anderson at QB earlier in the season. He’s a fine tournament play.

TE Greg Olsen

I got on a soapbox for Olsen as a contrarian pivot from Graham & Gronk last week, and he rewarded his owners with a 10-72-1 against the Saints. The theory is basically the same this week: with Olsen so close in price to the elite duo, most will overlook him. But in a matchup with a Bucs squad that allows the 4th=most receptions and 10th-most yards per game to TEs, Olsen is again a strong alternative.

RB Jonathan Stewart

Stewart looked excellent en route to 20-155-1 against the crumbling Saints last week. How the Panthers never gave him the unquestioned lead role is one of the NFL’s great mysteries. It sounds like teammate DeAngelo Williams will miss another week, or at most be reserved to just ‘emergency’ duty, so the Daily Show is a strong salary relief play against a Bucs squad allowing the 10th-most FPPG to RBs.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns

Cincinnati Bengals					Cleveland Browns

Sun – 1:00 PM					FirstEnergy Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts	Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
Vegas Odds		0	44	22	Vegas Odds		0	44	22
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush	Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.6	18	26	5	Offense	21.2	20	29	7
Defense	21.2	20	29	7	Defense	21.6	18	26	5
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE	Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Cleveland Browns	6	13	18	11	Cincinnati Bengals	8	31	2	23
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards	Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Green	88	56	6	910	Gordon	36	17	0	210
Sanu	93	54	5	754	Hawkins	97	56	2	756
Tate	21	14	1	159	Benjamin	40	16	3	296
Gresham	66	50	3	378	Cameron	36	17	1	291

Cincinnati Bengals

WR AJ Green

I talked about Green on NFL Game Night last week and discussed him as a high-ceiling tournament play here as well, figuring he would roast Steelers CB Ike Taylor. And roast him Green did, to the tune of 11-224-1. This week’s matchup is unfortunately a polar opposite of Taylor, with Joe Haden on deck. Haden has done very well shadowing Green in the past – I would avoid Green in all formats this week.

RB Jeremy Hill/Gio Bernard

It sounds like sanity will prevail for the Bengals this week, as coach comments and beat writer reports suggest that Jeremy Hill will get the majority of the work at RB. Anybody who has watched Jeremy Hill this season understands why. Hill becomes very interesting with the likelihood of increased touches, especially against a Browns defense that allows 112.1 rushing yards and the 14th-most FPPG to RBs.

WR Mohamed Sanu

Sanu is tournament-viable this week due Joe Haden being locked up with AJ Green, and the Browns having a black hole at #2 CB

Cleveland Browns

QB Johnny Manziel

Johnny Manziel is probably the most discussed player this week, and there’s no question that he’s a high-ceiling play that also offers excellent salary relief as well. An RG-favorite this week, check out more Manziel analysis by the excellent duo of Adam Levitan and Bryan Fontaine.

WR Josh Gordon

As Johnny goes, so too will Gordon go this week. The matchup doesn’t scream ‘favorable’ to me, but there’s no question that Gordon is a perpetual big play threat and upside tournament play this week.

RB Isaiah Crowell

First, remember what Crow brings to the table: “If you want to watch a young RB that just oozes with talent and potential – go check out some clips of Isaiah Crowell. He displays a unique blend of prescient vision and explosive, violent running”

I discussed the effect Manziel would have on the Browns running game with EMac and STLCardinals84 on NFL Game Night this week. The gist is that mobile QBs that have designed runs and/or read-option plays called for them force the defense to hesitate when diagnosing plays, and that hesitation is what causes the RB for those teams to become more effective (think Alf Morris with and without RG3). The added threat of Manziel, and the matchup with a Bengals squad that allows the 8th-most FPPG to RBs and grades out as the 9th-worst run-defense, make Crow a strong play that will likely be overlooked.

TE Jordan Cameron

Nobody is talking about Cameron this week, but he’s a fine salary relief play in tournaments.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

Houston Texans					Indianapolis Colts

Sun – 1:00 PM					Lucas Oil Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts	Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
Vegas Odds		6.5	49	21.25	Vegas Odds		-6.5	49	27.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush	Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	24.2	12	19	6	Offense	31.3	2	1	21
Defense	31.3	2	1	21	Defense	24.2	12	19	6
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE	Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Indianapolis Colts	14	25	4	30	Houston Texans	11	16	31	2
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards	Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Johnson	119	69	2	737	Wayne	104	55	2	641
Hopkins	97	64	6	1090	Hilton	121	78	7	1295
Posey					Moncrief	37	27	3	423
Graham	28	18	1	197	Allen	43	27	7	379

Houston Texans

RB Arian Foster

With all the hype on Le’Veon Bell this week, Arian Foster is being a little overlooked. While the Colts DVP for RBs looks modest (15th-most FPPG to RBs), remember that it was just a few weeks ago that Jonas Gray blasted them for 201 yards and 4 TDs on the ground (#NeverForget). Foster should have little trouble with this defense, who he’s already torched once before this season. I don’t worry about game flow concerns here either, as even with the Colts jumping out to an early multi-TD lead back in Week 6, the Texans stuck with Foster and he ended up slashing the Colts for 141 yards and 2 TDs.

WR DeAndre Hopkins

Hopkins value this week could be immense this week if teammate Andre Johnson doesn’t play. In that scenario, the breakout WR would spend much his time feasting on the coverage of Colts CB Greg Toler, who has been a letdown opposite lockdown talent Vontae Davis. Davis himself might miss this game, and if he does, it would eliminate any of the potential risk to rostering Hopkins. However, Hopkins remains viable even ¬_with_ Davis in the lineup based on the Colts defensive scheme, which keeps Davis glued to one side of the field and allows opposing RWRs to terrorize inferior players like Greg Toler. Keep an eye on the health of Andre, and fire up Hopkins as a strong tournament play if the veteran WR is unable to play.

WR Andre Johnson

As alluded to above, Johnson’s status is in question due to injury this week. He isn’t a terribly thrilling option even if he does play.

Indianapolis Colts

QB Andrew Luck

If you’re paying for an elite QB this week, Andrew Luck is arguably the top option. There isn’t much in the matchup that screams ‘must play’ – The Texans allow just the 17th-most FPPG to opposing QBs – but despite that Luck was still able to bomb these same Texans for 370 yards and 3 TDs in their Week 6 meeting. With Dwayne Allen back healthy, and an emerging big-play threat in WR Donte Moncrief, Luck is the high-priced QB to target this week.

WR TY Hilton

TY was a big reason why Luck found success against this Texans squad in Week 6, as the Colts explosive young WR ate up the Texans for 9 catches, 223 yards, and 1 TD in his first monster game of 2014. Hilton has continuously ran free against these Texans in his young career, and has given most non-Patriots teams trouble with his speed and explosiveness. Coming off a huge 10-150-2 against the Browns last week, expect another strong performance as the Colts continue their aggressive downfield attack. Hilton is a high-ceiling WR suitable for all game types.

WR Donte Moncrief

I discussed Moncrief this week as a Bargain Bin Baller on RotoWorld:

“Both of this week’s Bargain Bin Ballers are calculated risks. Moncrief, for example, isn’t even a full-time player. But he did see a surge in snaps last week, and with Hakeem Nicks’ snap counts dwindling and Reggie Wayne’s persistent injury situation, Moncrief should continue to see added opportunities for playing time. He’s done an excellent job of producing explosive plays on limited chances thus far, and will become a weekly GPP option if he can ever secure the full-time role as TY Hilton’s partner at outside WR. We’re banking on Moncrief taking the first steps toward that goal this week vs the Texans. The Texans will be doing everything they can to contain TY Hilton, which should leave Moncrief in single coverage situations that he should be able to capitalize on. Consider Moncrief a low-floor/high-ceiling play best suited to GPPs this week.”

TE Dwayne Allen / Coby Fleener

With Dwayne Allen returning from injury last week we were again reminded how frustrating the Colts TE situation can be:

Allen: 3 Targets, One Catch, Five Yards
Fleener: 10 Targets, 5 Catches, 56 Yards

Fleener certainly isnt’ going away and figures to continue to earn at least modest targets in the passing game (though I don’t think he’ll regularly see 10 like he did last week). But in Bryan Fontaine’s article this week, he reminds to not forget about the other Colts TE: Dwayne Allen. As I wrote last week – Allen was the Colts TD-maker earlier this season after all. Both Colts TEs are viable in tournaments, but banking on either in cash games is a risk.

RB BOOM Herron

Herron continues to co-exist with the Immortal Trent Richardson in a somewhat time-share, but it’s pretty clear Herron is the better player. Richardson’s refusal to die means Herron’s upside is capped, but Boom makes a fine salary relief RB this week nonetheless.