NFL Grind Down: Week 16 - Page Five

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-12-21 14:38:34

Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys

Indianapolis Colts						Dallas Cowboys
Sun – 4:25 PM						AT&T Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	55.5	26.25				-3	55.5	29.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	30.3	3	1	19		Offense	27.2	7	8	4
Defense	27.2	7	8	4		Defense	30.3	3	1	19
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Dallas Cowboys	19	18	7	31		Indianapolis Colts	12	26	3	27
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Hilton	129	82	7	1345		Bryant	125	79	13	1148
Wayne	109	59	2	665		Williams	58	32	6	501
Moncrief	41	27	3	423		Beasley	37	29	3	334
Allen	47	29	8	395		Witten	77	53	4	564

Quick Grind

•SUPER Gary Oldman Seal of Approval: Target EVERYONE!
•Injury Update: Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray expected to play
•Keep an eye on TY Hilton’s health

Indianapolis Colts

QB Andrew Luck — $8900 DK — #2 QB — 17.8% OF CAP — 2.7% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#11 QB)

As if Luck needed any more reason to throw the ball around, Vegas has this game pegged with a massive 55.5 point total and projects it to be tight (Dallas favored by just 3) – meaning Luck’s already hefty passing volume could even see a boost. He’s a no-brainer top-3 QB.

WR TY Hilton — $7600 DK — #10 WR — 15.2% OF CAP — 1.5% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#40 WR)

Reports suggest Hilton WON’T play this week. This would be a big boost to Donte Moncrief (see below).

WR Donte Moncrief — $4100 DK — #41 WR — 8.2% OF CAP — 3.6% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#25WR)

I discussed Moncrief this week as a Bargain Bin Baller on RotoWorld:

Moncrief broke many hearts last week as a penalty negated what would have been a tipped 48-yard TD. He’s a risky option at his current usage, but things are looking up for the rookie WR. First, reports suggest that that Reggie Wayne might be rested more until the playoffs – if his snaps are scaled back, or if he misses any time entirely, Moncrief would stand to benefit. Second, TY Hilton is questionable this week, and has been missing practice. Obviously if TY can’t go, Moncrief becomes a very enticing option. Playoff seeding plays a factor here. The Colts are nearly locked into their seed, which could mean they choose to rest Hilton and/or Wayne to get them healed up for the playoffs. In that scenario Moncrief is an excellent value play.

TE Dwayne Allen / Coby Fleener
ALLEN— $3800 DK — #12 TE — 7.6% OF CAP — 5.7% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#6 TE)
FLEENER— $4600 DK — #6 TE — 9.2% OF CAP — 3.9% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#9 TE)

Forget trying to discern which Colts TE is going to produce this week, because they BOTH could against a Cowboys defense that allows the 2nd-most FPPG and an average line of nearly 7-70-1 to TEs.

RB BOOM Herron — $4300 DK — #22 RB— 8.6% OF CAP — 2.5% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#16 RB)

Herron continues to co-exist with the Immortal Trent Richardson in a somewhat time-share, but it’s pretty clear Herron is the better player. Richardson’s refusal to die means Herron’s upside is capped, but Boom makes a fine salary relief RB this week nonetheless.

Dallas Cowboys

RB DeMarco Murray — $9300 DK — #2 RB— 18.6% OF CAP — .5% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#32 RB)

Don’t panic – Murray is expected to play through his broken hand on Sunday. It’ll be interesting to see how Murray’s injury affects his ownership percentage this week. On one hand (no pun intended), Murray injury is clearly going to scare off most folks who worry about his ability to hold and catch the ball (despite it being his non-ball hand). On the other hand, the fact that Murray is already universally expected to play, and that he’s even been catching passes in practice, suggests that he might not be all that limited. Against a Colts squad that I must always point out allowed 201 yards and FOUR TDs to Jonas Gray earlier this season, Murray could actually be a contrarian play due to his injury concerns.

WR Dez Bryant — $8600 DK — #4 WR — 17.2% OF CAP — 16.8% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#3 WR)

We pegged Dez Bryant as a candidate for a monster bounceback game last week, and in true Dez form, he didn’t just have a good game, he razed the Eagles for 6-114-3. While it’s true that Dez will likely see some of Colts stud CB Vontae Davis this week, savvy Grinders already know that Davis plays ‘sides’, specifically the left side. So, the Cowboys can easily scheme Dez away from the Colts lockdown defender and into the lackadaisical coverage of Greg Toler instead. Not many people are talking about Dez as a top option, suggesting he could be a sneaky pivot in tournaments.

QB Tony Romo — $7300 DK — #9 QB — 14.6% OF CAP — 3.3% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#10 QB)

Romo is again a sneaky tournament play given his favorable matchup (Colts allow the 12th-most FPPG to QBs) and the game’s
massive Vegas total (55.5 points).

Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders

Buffalo Bills						Oakland Raiders
Sun – 4:25 PM						O.co Coliseum
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-6	39	22.5				6	39	16.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	18.9	25	26	30		Offense	15.2	31	27	32
Defense	15.2	31	27	32		Defense	18.9	25	26	30
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Oakland Raiders	22	31	4	21		Buffalo Bills	2	6	11	1
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Watkins	111	56	5	815		Jones	103	70	5	646
Woods	80	45	2	490		Holmes	86	42	4	610
Hogan	46	35	4	375		Moore	27	12	0	115
Chandler	61	39	1	412		Rivera	88	55	4	503

Quick Grind

•Sub-40 point Vegas total = limited appeal
•Target Bills Defense

Buffalo Bills

WR Sammy Watkins — $5300 DK — #25 WR — 10.6% OF CAP — 7.8% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#13 WR)

Watkins is a guy I haven’t been able to get right over the past few weeks. We were correctly avoiding him up until his explosive day against one of the NFL’s top secondaries (Broncos). Then last week we tried to capitalize on his Week 14 momentum and the Packers defense’s Week 14 decline, and he managed a measly 1 catch for 28 yards. Now I’m torn: do we avoid him based on horrid QB play, or do we go back to the rookie WR now that he’s facing the talent-deficient Raiders secondary? The Raiders are one of those teams whose DVP tells one story and whose advanced metrics and grades tell another. The Raiders allow just the 7th-fewest FPPG to opposing WRs, yet grade out as the 6th-WORST in coverage on PFF. I trust the grades here, as the Raiders have benefitted from facing the inept 49ers and Chiefs passing attacks in recent weeks. Watkins immense athleticism could shred this secondary, but I’m not sure that 1) the Bills will throw enough for him to produce, and 2) that when the Bills do throw, Kyle Orton will be remotely accurate. Treat Watkins as a low-floor/high-ceiling WR this week, best reserved for tournament rosters only.

RB Fred Jackson — $5500 DK — #13 RB— 11% OF CAP — 15.4% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#4 RB)

Update: CJ Spiller being ACTIVE should leach some touches from FJAX

FJAX ground out nearly 100 total yards last week vs the Pack, but could have produced an awful lot more if pesky RBs like Anthony Dixon didn’t see so much work. Between Dixon and Bryce Brown, 12 non-FJAX touches were doled out to other RBs. While it’s easy to get excited about Jackson’s matchup this week (Raiders have been 2nd most favorable RB matchup basically all year), it’s troubling that he could split so much work, ESPECIALLY with CJ Spiller possibly returning this week. I still think FJAX is the Bills RB to circle the wagons around this week, but the upside we want him to have in this matchup probably isn’t realistic given the other mouths to feed.

Oakland Raiders

RB Latavius Murray — $4600 DK — #16 RB— 9.2% OF CAP — 1.2% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#25 RB)

Despite cracking off nearly 5 YPC against the Chiefs, Latavius Murray was limited to just 12 carries last week, only THREE of which came in the second half (he must understand how Jamaal Charles feels). I assume the Raiders will refocus their game plan around their only difference-making offensive talent this week, especially considering the Bills recent destruction of opposing passing attacks. Curiously, although the Bills grade out as the 4th-best run-defense crew and allow the 5th-fewest FPPG to RBs on the season, they’ve actually been among the top-12 most favorable defenses for RBs over their past 5 games. They’ve also been allowing nearly 30 more rushing yards per game over that span. I’m seriously digging for reasons to like Murray this week. His talent is off-the-charts, and while the Bills have clogged up opposing running games all season, Murray has some contrarian tournament appeal given his role as the Obi-Wan Kenobi of the Raiders offense.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

Seattle Seahawks						Arizona Cardinals
Sun – 8:30 PM						Univ. of Phoenix Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-8	36.5	22.25				8	36.5	14.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	24.2	11	21	1		Offense	20.5	21	17	28
Defense	20.5	21	17	28		Defense	24.2	11	21	1
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Arizona Cardinals	10	3	18	26		Seattle Seahawks	1	11	1	17
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Baldwin	83	56	3	669		Fitzgerald	88	57	2	722
Kearse	68	37	1	529		Floyd	79	37	4	647
Richardson	30	19	1	159		Brown	86	41	5	591
Willson	33	17	1	191		Carlson	50	30	1	329

Quick Grind

•Top Play: Seattle Defense
•Depth Chart Update: Cardinals starting QB Ryan Lindley
•RIP Cardinals Offense

Seattle Seahawks

RB Marshawn Lynch — $7000 DK — #7 RB— 14% OF CAP — 1.8% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#21 RB)

Even in tough matchups, I like to describe Beast Mode as at least a high-floor RB. Lynch has an awfully tough time with these Cardinals though, as most teams have this season: the Cardinals allow the FEWEST FPPG and just 66.9 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs. Vegas thinks that both offenses are basically going to sleepwalk through this game, and I just don’t see a way that Lynch explodes for a massive day against one of the top run defenses that knows his game and will be selling out to stop him.

QB Russell Wilson — $7100 DK — #11 QB — 14.2% OF CAP — NA% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#NA QB)

If you roster Russ in this matchup you’re just hoping for one of his explosive rushing games. It’s certainly a possibility, but I would target more favorable matchups instead this week.

Seahawks WRs

There’s very little upside here. Look elsewhere for salary relief WRs.

Arizona Cardinals

RB Kerwynn Williams — $3200 DK — #38 RB— 6.4% OF CAP — .3% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#34 RB)

Williams cracked off impressive games of 100 and 75 rushing yards against the Chiefs and Rams over the past 2 weeks… but now runs into the Seahawks buzzsaw. The Cardinals will certainly try to lean on the run, but there’s just no chance that Ryan Lindley will be able to move the ball on this defense, sinking Williams chances. I would avoid all Cardinals this week (and probably for the rest of the season).

The Cardinals WRs

Ryan Lindley is now the Cardinals starting QB – he’s been a starter before, but has never thrown a TD pass.

Avoid every Cardinals WR – now they’re just some bodies that we used to know.

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals

Denver Broncos						Cincinnati Bengals
Mon – 8:30 PM						Paul Brown Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		**	**	**				**	**	**
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	29.1	5	2	13		Offense	22.2	16	28	2
Defense	22.2	16	28	2		Defense	29.1	5	2	13
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Cincinnati Bengals	6	28	2	20		Denver Broncos	26	8	14	29
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Thomas	153	96	11	1389		Green	99	61	6	959
Sanders	125	89	7	1261		Sanu	96	55	5	758
Welker	58	43	2	392		Tate	22	14	1	159
Thomas	56	41	12	456		Gresham	66	50	3	378

Quick Grind

•Monday Night Hammer = CJ Anderson
•Do the Bengals have any chance of competing?
•Be careful targeting Bengals against elite Broncos defense

Denver Broncos

WR Demaryius Thomas — $8500 DK — #5 WR — 17% OF CAP — 5.3% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#16 WR)

Thomas shredded the Chargers for 6-123-1 last week and figures to be the one consistent, matchup-proof play in the Broncos passing game, regardless of how run-heavy they go this week.

RB CJ Anderson — $6900 DK — #8 RB— 13.8% OF CAP — 19.5% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#1 RB)

Anderson couples massive volume with a strong matchup against the Bengals, who allow the 8th-most FPPG and 111.1 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs (both of which looked even worse prior to their stomping of the Johnny Manziel-led Browns last week). Considering price, CJ Anderson might be the top RB value of Week 16.

QB Peyton Manning — $8400 DK — #3 QB — 16.8% OF CAP — 1.2% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#17 QB)

Peyton was reportedly so sick last week that he was vomiting on the sideline and had to receive numerous IVs. That doesn’t explain his past few games of so-so play, but might be why we saw just 20 pass attempts from the Broncos signal-caller last week. Now even more than last week, people will be off Peyton, creating an intriguing buying opportunity in tournaments. There’s some concern that the Broncos will just stomp the Bengals on the ground, as they’ve been doing to most teams. But assuming he’s back to full health, Peyton’s ceiling is as high as any QB’s.

WR Emmanuel Sanders — $7200 DK — #11 WR — 14.4% OF CAP — 4.5% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#21 WR)

Sanders has seen 6 or fewer targets and had 4 or fewer catches only FOUR times this season. Unfortunately two of those times were in his past 2 games. It’s pretty simple with Sanders, other than the Dolphins game (9-125), when CJ Anderson and the run game have been featured, Sanders opportunities have fallen off. Given that the Bengals weakness is their run defense, I think Sanders is the much riskier Broncos WR this week.

TE Julius Thomas — $4800 DK — #5 TE — 9.6% OF CAP — 10.0% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#3 TE)

Orange Julius is an awfully big risk considering he saw less than half the snaps last week.

Cincinnati Bengals

WR AJ Green — $8200 DK — #6 WR — 16.4% OF CAP — 3.7% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#23 WR)

Green is basically at the mercy of Andy Dalton. With the Broncos likely shutting down the Bengals rushing attack, there should be plenty of opportunities for Green. Unfortunately he’ll tangle with the elite CB duo of Chris Harris (PFF’s top CB) and Aqib Talib. Green is a contrarian tournament option, but is a recommended fade considering the other elite WRs that have favorable matchups this week.

RB Jeremy Hill — $5600 DK — #12 RB— 11.2% OF CAP — 6.5% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#9 RB)

The Most Honest Report of the Year Award goes to the Bengals coaching staff, who commented last week that Jeremy Hill would get the majority of the work at RB. And holy s%& did he ever. Hill shattered the Browns defense (and their playoff hopes) for 152 total yards and 2 TDs on 26 touches last week. I’ve gushed over Hill’s skillset plenty this season, but unfortunately we need to temper expectations of a follow-up performance this week. Teams do not simply run over the Broncos (someone please post this meme in the comments). Denver grades out behind only the Jets and Lions in run-defense, and allows a pitiful 52 rushing yards per game to RBs. Their defensive front is nails. While Hill is certainly a candidate to see heavy volume, and will need to have a strong game for the Bengals to have any chance this week, I think the savvy play here is to let others chase last week’s points. If ever there was a time to fade a RB who just crushed for 150+ yards and 2 TDs, it would be against this defense.

WR Mohamed Sanu — $3800 DK — #46 WR — 7.6% OF CAP — 1.4% OWNED IN FIELD REPORT (#42 WR)

Maybe now that the Bengals finally figured out the correct way to use Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard, they can move on to actually utilizing Mo Sanu as a single-coverage destroyer when teams focus on AJ Green. A guy can dream, right?

Hope you enjoyed the #GrindDown this week. If you did, drop a comment below, tweet me @ohnjz, or just send me an unmarked envelope filled with Orange Starburst.

Good luck this week!