NFL Grind Down: Week 3 - Page Five
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins
| Kansas City Chiefs | Miami Dolphins | |||||||||
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| Sun – 4:25 PM | Sun Life Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 42.5 | 19.25 | -4 | 42.5 | 23.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 13.5 | 30 | 32 | 16 | Offense | 21.5 | 18 | 20 | 15 | |
| Defense | 21.5 | 18 | 20 | 15 | Defense | 13.5 | 30 | 32 | 16 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Miami Dolphins | 4 | 19 | 13 | 18 | Kansas City Chiefs | 30 | 9 | 26 | 26 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | Touches | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | Touches | Yards | |
| Bowe | 6 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 40.0 | Wallace | 19 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 137.0 | |
| Avery | 19 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 98.0 | Hartline | 12 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 62.0 | |
| Hammond | 2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 22.0 | Gibson | 5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 36.0 | |
| Fasano | 10 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 68.0 | Clay | 14 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 58.0 | |
Quick Grind
•Chiefs offense runs through either Jamaal Charles or Knile Davis
•Dolphins passing attack boosted by likely high volume
•Mike Wallace emerging
•Chiefs TE Travis Kelce has great upside TE this week
| Core Plays: | MIA WR Mike Wallace, KC starting RB (either JC or Knile Davis |
| Secondary Plays: | MIA QB Ryan Tannehill, MIA D/ST |
| GPP Plays: | MIA RB Lamar Miller, MIA TE Charles Clay |
| Salary Relief | KC TE Travis Kelce, KC RB Knile Davis (if JC out) |
Kansas City Chiefs
Update: Jamaal Charles is a GTD, but there are rumblings he might be able to play. We’ll keep you posted.
RB Jamaal Charles / Knile Davis
The Chiefs offense is hopelessly reliant on All-World RB Jamaal Charles. Unfortunately, Charles is looking like a GTD this week. On late swap sites, Grinders will be able to keep a somewhat flexible lineup and plug in Knile Davis if Charles sits. Thankfully the Chiefs offense will still run through their RB, even if it’s Davis, as evident by his 105 yard, 2TD performance in relief last week. It’s the same story as last season, where Davis averaged 27 touches and 97 total yards per game when Charles was out. I don’t particularly like Davis’ matchup here, against a Dolphins D that has only allowed 84 yards/game to RBs and will sell out to stop the run this week. However, Davis’ projected volume of touches is enough to propel him to a solid performance. The real issue is his likely ownership percentage. It’s no secret how valuable Davis is when Charles sits, especially coming off his blow-up game last week – that and his low price will make Davis one of the highest owned RBs this week. It’s an advisable fade in a week where there are several other strong replacement RBs (most of which have better matchups, too).
WR Dwayne Bowe
I was worried about Bowe’s matchup last week, and sure enough he was held to 3-40 by Aqib Talib and the Broncos. This week honestly isn’t much better vs a player I like to refer to as “the best no-name CB in the NFL”, Brent Grimes. Bowe is really all the Chiefs have at WR, but I would avoid him this week. His price will be advantageous when he finally gets a good matchup.
TE Travis Kelce
The Chiefs receiving option I would target is TE Travis Kelce. If you aren’t living under a rock you’ve likely caught wind of the Travis Kelce hype, so I won’t belabor it here again. But the Chiefs are slowly working this kid into more and more snaps, and he is going to absolutely pop off in a game soon. The Dolphins are horribly thin at LB and none of what they have can cover anyway. Kelce makes a great upside punt TE this week.
Others
Avoid Alex Smith this week against the NFL’s top pass rush (per PFF). Dolphins DE Cameron Wake might put up video game numbers against Chiefs LT Eric Fisher. Just avoid other Chiefs receiving options. You can find punts with legitimate upside instead.
Miami Dolphins
QB Ryan Tannehill
Ryan Tannehill’s stats look underwhelming so far, but he’s lost heaps of yards thanks to drops, and has just missed on a few deep throws. It’s only a matter of time before he blows up and wins someone a GPP. Tannehill should see higher volume of passing going forward without RB Knowshon Moreno. He benefits from a Chip Kelly-lite offensive pace, and may have to put a lot more on his own shoulders without his top RB. His matchup this week is a collapsing Chiefs D that has been gutted by injury and has the 3rd-worst coverage grade in the NFL. Tannehill also has the benefit of an offensive line that has shown exceptional pass-blocking from its tackles. This is especially important vs the Chiefs, who have one of the top edge-rushing duos in the NFL. All told, I love Tannehill as a GPP stack target with WR Mike Wallace.
WR Mike Wallace
Pigs are flying, it’s raining cats and dogs, and Mike Wallace is being used correctly in Miami. He should embarrass an already embarrassed Marcus Cooper, who gave up 7-132-1 last week alone. Wallace is a top-15 WR option people, and he isnt priced like it. You know what to do.
RB Lamar Miller
I’m a little leery that the Dolphins won’t let Lamar Miller carry the load in the wake of Knowshon Moreno’s injury. There’s a lot of concern about how much they actually trust Miller. Regardless, Miller should get an opportunity to handle 15+ carries this week against a Chiefs run D that ain’t what it used to be after losing a few key defenders. Miller makes for an intriguing GPP RB, but don’t go trusting him to get the full load until you see it with your own eyes.
Defense
While they won’t be one of the highest owned options this week, I like the Dolphins chances to post a strong fantasy line. They boast the top pass-rushing unit AND the top run defense unit (the pass-rushing grade is more legit), and they’re also the 3rd-best cover unit per PFF. If they sell out to stop the run, and succeed, I don’t think the Chiefs have a chance. The Dolphins pass-rush is the best bet in the NFL to get several sacks this week. DE Cameron Wake has the highest PFF pass-rushing grade in the entire NFL this season, and faces a LT that has allowed 7 hits and 3 hurries. It should be a bloodbath.
Others
Keep an eye on RB Damien Williams, who will be the #2 RB this week. He has excellent physical tools, and the Dolphins just don’t seem to trust Lamar Miller in an every-down role. This might be the week Charles Clay puts himself on the map in 2014, but I want to see solid involvement in the offense before I buy in. If you’re looking for a super sneaky full PPR option, consider WR Jarvis Landry, who seems to have overtaken Brandon Gibson for the slot role. WR Brian Hartline has been an afterthought thus far and will continue to be.
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks
| Denver Broncos | Seattle Seahawks | |||||||||
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| Sun – 4:25 PM | Candlestick Park | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | 48.5 | 22 | -4.5 | 48.5 | 26.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 27.5 | 4 | 1 | 24 | Offense | 28.5 | 3 | 11 | 4 | |
| Defense | 28.5 | 3 | 11 | 4 | Defense | 27.5 | 4 | 1 | 24 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Seattle Seahawks | 21 | 16 | 11 | 29 | Denver Broncos | 29 | 22 | 16 | 28 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | Touches | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | Touches | Yards | |
| Thomas | 18 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 110.0 | Harvin | 8 | 8.0 | 14.0 | 64.0 | |
| Welker | Baldwin | 11 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 49.0 | |||||
| Sanders | 18 | 14.0 | 16.0 | 185.0 | Kearse | 8 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 69.0 | |
| Thomas | 13 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 143.0 | Miller | 5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 64.0 | |
Quick Grind
•Seahawks offense should be aggressive
•Denver offense makes for tremendous GPP options
| Core Plays: | SEA QB Russell Wilson, SEA RB Marshawn Lynch |
| Secondary Plays: | SEA WR Percy Harvin |
| GPP Plays: | Entire Broncos offense |
| Salary Relief | SEA WR Jermaine Kearse |
Denver Broncos
A general note on the Broncos this week:
We all know how tough this defense is at home. That will likely sway most off the Broncos this week, presenting an excellent set of contrarian GPP options. If there is any offense that can pay off vs the Seahawks at home, it is this one. Proceed with caution.
QB Peyton Manning
The one thing Manning has going for him this week that he didn’t have in the Super Bowl was his full, healthy, elite offensive line. If the Broncos pull the upset, I pretty much guarantee it’ll be due to the OL holding up to the Seahawks pass-rush. Their secondary can be exposed like any other if QBs have enough time – but it’s the pass rush that makes that nearly impossible. Each unit has been strong so far this year, with the Broncos OL the third-best pass-blocking unit and the Seahawks boasting the third-best pass-rush on PFF. If you trust Manning’s OL this time around, fire him up in GPPs.
WR Demaryius Thomas
Thomas is either too expensive or hilariously cheap this week, depending on how much a site’s pricing algorithm weights recent performance and matchup factors. Regardless, Thomas is the receiving option to own this week. Despite popular perception, he won’t be shadowed by Richard Sherman, and instead will be schemed away from him. Jordy Nelson was able to beat up on #2 CB Byron Maxwell in Week 1, and I like DTs chances of doing the same.
WR Emmanuel Sanders / WR Wes Welker
I’m not entirely sure how the target breakdown between Sanders and Welker will work out, especially in such a tough matchup, but the duo figure to cannibalize each other’s opportunities. Of the two, I prefer Welker here. Usual Seahawks slot man Jeremy Lane is out with injury, exposing at least one position in this talented secondary. Welker could be a sneaky target if Peyton feels he has a consistent advantage.
TE Julius Thomas
After Antonio Gates ate up the Seahawks for 3 TDs last week, I’m a lot more optimistic about Thomas’ chances. He had a 3 TD game of his own in Week 1 after all. The Seahawks are capable of completely shutting down TEs, however, between their excellent coverage LBs and safety Kam Chancellor. Thomas should still be considered a top-5 option this week… but his upside comes with exceptional risk.
RB Montee Ball
Of all the Broncos playmakers, I like Ball the least. He hasn’t looked great thus far, and obviously faces a stiff test against PFF’s 4th-best run defense of 2013. I would look elsewhere for a #1 RB this week.
Seattle Seahawks
QB Russell Wilson
Wilson has been his usual steady self this season, but he’ll to be a little more DangeRUSS (see what I did there?) if the Seahawks are going to win this one. The Broncos have a much more fearsome pass rush this time around (LB Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware), as well as key additions and health in the secondary (CB Aqib Talib, Chris Harris, and Bradley Roby, and S TJ Ward). The Seahawks OL, and Wilson’s accuracy and decision-making will be tested in this one. My head tells me Wilson is going to have a rough day in real life and DFS, but my gut tells me he’s going to be a hero. That range of outcomes makes Wilson a solid upside play that you don’t have to pay much for.
WR Percy Harvin
Harvin might be the safest Seahawk this week. I doubt he’ll be shadowed by Talib given his propensity for motion, jet sweeps, and lining up in the backfield. And many of his routes are high percentage screens and quick-hitters anyway, giving him a high floor. Harvin makes for a solid #2 WR, with the upside for a top-10 performance.
RB Marshawn Lynch
Lynch managed only six rushes in Week 2 as the Chargers completely dominated possession. He’ll likely top that mark by the end of the first quarter of this game. Lynch’s play will be crucial for the Seahawks, but I actually don’t like his matchup against a Broncos run D that was graded 2nd-best by PFF in 2013. Lynch is still likely a top-8 or top-10 option, but other backs in his price range have more likely access to their ceilings.
Others
The other Seahawks receiving options – Jermaine Kearse and Doug Baldwin — are inconsistent but offer salary relief. One will likely be constantly tangled with Aqib Talib, a risk you simply don’t need to take this week.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers
| Pittsburgh Steelers | Carolina Panthers | |||||||||
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| Sun – 8:30 PM | Bank of America Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 42 | 19.5 | -3 | 42 | 22.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.0 | 25 | 22 | 14 | Offense | 22.0 | 17 | 9 | 26 | |
| Defense | 22.0 | 17 | 9 | 26 | Defense | 18.0 | 25 | 22 | 14 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Carolina Panthers | 15 | 15 | 8 | 17 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 13 | 24 | 6 | 25 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | Touches | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | Touches | Yards | |
| Brown | 18 | 12.0 | 14.0 | 206.0 | Benjamin | 16 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 138.0 | |
| Wheaton | 15 | 11.0 | 13.0 | 135.0 | Cotchery | 8 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 78.0 | |
| Moore | Avant | 8 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 54.0 | |||||
| Miller | 11 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 61.0 | Olsen | 19 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 155.0 | |
Quick Grind
•Very low total limits appeal
•Benjamin could dominate
•Avoid the Steelers offense outside GPPs
| Core Plays: | None |
| Secondary Plays: | CAR WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR QB Cam Newton, CAR TE Greg Olsen |
| GPP Plays: | PIT RB Le’Veon Bell, PIT WR Antonio Brown |
| Salary Relief | CAR RB Jon Stewart (if DeAngelo Williams sits) |
Pittsburgh Steelers
WR Antonio Brown
I love Antonio Brown, but it’s hard to recommend him against such a stout defense. the Panthers are graded the 2nd-best in the NFL in coverage, and their success vs the run forces lower-percentage routes on third-down. However, likely cover Antoine Cason has allowed 81.3% of passes to be completed for 12-120 so far in 2014. I like Brown’s skillset against Cason. He makes for a solid option on full PPR sites, but should probably be avoided elsewhere.
RB Le’Veon Bell
Le’Veon Bell looks elite so far in 2014. Per PFF, he’s already forced 15 missed tackles, and his newfound elusiveness jumps off the screen. He’s also racked up 11-136 through the air already (more than some #1 WRs). I’m saying all these nice things about Bell because I’m about to tell you he has a horrible matchup this week against one of the top front sevens in the NFL. The Panthers are only allowing 68.5 rushing yards per game, 8th-worst in the NFL, and have the 6th-best run defense grade on PFF. Bells new skillset and heavy involvement in the offense make him a contrarian GPP play, but I would temper expectations against this defense.
Others
The Steelers complementary options will be in play other weeks, but not against such a strong defense.
Carolina Panthers
QB Cam Newton
Cam Newton isn’t yet the DFS force we’re used to as he continues to recover from multiple injuries. This could be a get-well game for him though, vs a Steelers defense that has the 9th-worst coverage grade in the NFL so far, per PFF. If he can keep up his momentum from Week 2, Newton shouldn’t have trouble picking apart the Steelers. Whether or not he’s able to do damage with his legs will determine how valuable he is this week. I’m inclined to wait another week.
WR Kelvin Benjamin
I’m hoping Benjamin’s underwhelming box score in Week 2 limits his ownership percentage this week. The fact is, Benjamin may have had some drops, but he still tied for the team lead in targets, and again was an extremely difficult cover for the opposing secondary. Even when he doesn’t get separation, his TE-like size enables him to bully defenders, shielding them from the ball or simply allowing Benjamin to go up and get it. He will be a force in the NFL as long as he doesn’t get fat. Take a shot on his 2 TD upside this week and enjoy watching him manhandle Steelers CB Ike Taylor.
TE Greg Olsen
Olsen is the reliable option in this offense. He’s already up to 14 catches and is averaging nearly 10 targets per game. He also has the benefit of facing a defense that allows the 7th-most FPPG to TEs, and has given up big days to vastly inferior talents. Olsen is firmly a top-5 TE this week, especially on full PPR sites.
RB Jon Stewart
If DeAngelo Williams misses again this week, Jon Stewart will be the starting RB vs the Steelers. He didn’t manage much last week against a tough Lions defense (which we expected), but should be in for a revitalizing performance against a Steelers defense that is the worst vs the run that it’s been in recent memory. The Steelers are allowing 163.5 yards per game to RBs, the 2nd-worst mark in the NFL. The matchup makes Stewart an appealing salary relief option at RB if Williams is inactive.
Others
Same as last week: “The Panthers WRs outside Kelvin Benjamin are a collection of dusty old possession receivers who are unappealing in DFS. On we go.”
Chicago Bears at New York Jets
| Chicago Bears | New York Jets | |||||||||
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| Mon – 8:30 PM | MetLife Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 45.5 | 21.5 | -2.5 | 45.5 | 24 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.0 | 9 | 2 | 31 | Offense | 21.5 | 18 | 28 | 3 | |
| Defense | 21.5 | 18 | 28 | 3 | Defense | 24.0 | 9 | 2 | 31 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New York Jets | 31 | 2 | 32 | 2 | Chicago Bears | 16 | 21 | 10 | 6 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | Touches | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | Touches | Yards | |
| Marshall | 20 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 119.0 | Decker | 13 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 137.0 | |
| Jeffery | 12 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 118.0 | Kerley | 13 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 60.0 | |
| Holmes | 7 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 41.0 | Nelson | 2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 23.0 | |
| Bennett | 18 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 107.0 | Cumberland | 7 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 64.0 | |
Quick Grind
•Target the Bears passing attack (Cutler, Marshall, Jeffery, Bennett)
•Don’t expect much on the ground from Matt Forte
•NYJ play-calling was great in 1st half last week: Geno can succeed in this offense (if Decker is healthy)
| Core Plays: | CHI QB Jay Cutler, CHI WR Brandon Marshall, CHI WR ALshon Jeffery, CHI TE Mertellus Bennett |
| Secondary Plays: | NYJ QB Geno Smith and WR Eric Decker (if Decker plays), NYJ RB Chris Ivory |
| GPP Plays: | NYJ TE Jeff Cumberland, CHI RB Matt Forte |
| Salary Relief | NYJ WR Jeremy Kerley (if Decker sits) |
Chicago Bears
QB Jay Cutler
Last week Aaron Rodgers threw for 346 yards and 3 TDs vs this Jets secondary. Jay Cutler’s weapons might be even better than Rodgers’. There’s not much analysis needed here: It’s going to be another rough week for the Jets. Cutler is a top-5 option at QB.
WR Brandon Marshall
Brandon Marshall had 3 TDs last week. Now he faces a Jets secondary that just gave up 9-209-1 to Jordy Nelson. I have no doubt that Marshall will smash the Jets this week, the only question is to what degree. He’ll battle Calvin Johnson and Jordy Nelson for positioning in the top-3 at WR this week.
WR Alshon Jeffery
I’m hoping Jeffery will be healthy for this cake matchup… but I have my doubts based on last week’s showing, where it seemed pretty clear that Jeffery shouldn’t have even been playing. His health makes him a sizeable gamble this week, but the upside vs the Jets “secondary” is obviously immense. If reports suggest he’s moving well – plug him in without hesitation.
TE Martellus Bennett
Bennett is 2nd on the Bears in targets. The Jets have been stingy against TEs so far, allowing the 2nd-fewest FPPG, but they also haven’t been challenged by anything remotely resembling a receiving threat. If Alshon Jeffery is still noticeably limited, expect Cutler to favor Bennett for a third straight week. Bennett shapes up as a solid TE option this week.
RB Matt Forte
As was the case last week with Eddie Lacy, Matt Forte will likely struggle to gain any traction against the best rushing defense in the NFL. The Jets front seven, especially their defensive line, is just stupid good. They’re only allowing 36 rushing yards per game to RBs. 36 yards per game. That’s a full 5x less than the Raiders are allowing. It would be an especially contrarian move to target Forte in DFS this week.
New York Jets
QB Geno Smith
I thought Geno Smith looked great in the first half of last week’s game vs the Packers. The Jets playcalling was outstanding, and kept the Packers clearly off-balance while simultaneously maximizing Geno’s strengths. This week Geno faces a mediocre Bears defense that has limited QBs to the 8th-fewest passing yards/game, but just lost top DB Charles Tilman. If WR Eric Decker plays in this game, I love the potential of a Geno/Decker stack in GPPs.
WR Eric Decker
Decker’s health will define the values of every other Jets playmaker this week. If he is able to play without limitation, both he and Geno are in a great spot as a GPP stack. If he doesn’t play, Geno’s upside is limited, but Jeremy Kerley’s value should increase. Unfortunately the Jets play in the very last game of the week which means the situation should be avoided entirely on sites without late-swap. Even on late-swap sites, it will be difficult to have contingency plans in place. Coach Rex Ryan thinks Decker will be able to play, and has even said he doesnt need to practice first. These are hopeful signs, but the true word likely won’t come until Monday. Decker is certainly in play, if only for the bold.
WR Jeremy Kerley
If Eric Decker sits this week, Kerley will likely see the most targets of any Jets receiver. He’ll make for an intriguing option on full PPR sites if that is the case.
RB Chris Johnson / Chris Ivory
The Jets RB committee has seen strong returns early in 2014, especially from the violent-running Ivory. Ivory has punished opposing defense for 23-145-2 so far in 2014. It’s only a matter of time before Ivory gets sidelined with an injury, but until then he makes for a sneaky option in games where the Jets should have a clear advantage running the ball. This is one such game. The Bears are giving up the 9th-most rushing yards/game and 12th-most FPPG to RBs. Both RBs are worth a deep GPP gamble, especially if Decker is out.
Others
TE Jeff Cumberland is a deep punt option at TE, and is quietly 4th on the team in targets.
I hate ending articles with Jeff Cumberland, but I seem to have run out of players to talk about. Hope you enjoyed the Grind Down this week. If you did, let me know on Twitter, or just send me an unmarked envelope filled with Orange Starburst.
Good luck this week!