NFL Grind Down: Week 5 - Page Five

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-10-05 16:12:24

Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers

Kansas City Chiefs						San Francisco 49ers
Sun – 4:25 PM						CenturyLink Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		6.5	44.5	19				-6.5	44.5	25.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	15.3	29	17	5		Offense	22.0	19	23	14
Defense	22.0	19	23	14		Defense	15.3	29	17	5
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
San Francisco 49ers	8	2	25	2		Kansas City Chiefs	17	10	16	21
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Bowe	17	11	0	153		Crabtree	32	24	2	230
Avery	24	14	0	156		Boldin	28	21	0	231
Hammond	3	1	0	22		Johnson	17	14	1	174
Fasano	13	8	1	91		Davis	12	9	2	91

Quick Grind

•Alex Smith REVENGE GAME!!!
•Target 49ers run game
•Tough matchup for Jamaal Charles
•Vegas expects a relatively low scoring game, limiting appeal

Kansas City Chiefs

RB Jamaal Charles
So much for that ankle injury. Charles did bad things to the Patriots on Monday Night Football, racking up 108 total yards and 3 TDs. This week he’ll face stacked boxes from a stout run defense team that knows all too well that they can focus on the run and dare Alex Smith to beat them. The 49ers allow just 56 rushing yards per game (4th-fewest) and the 2nd-fewest FPPG to RBs. Again, it’s hard to get much worse than this matchup… but it’s also pretty hard to fade Charles after seeing him run on Monday night. Charles is a grin-and-bear-it top-6 RB option this week.

Travis Kelce
And so, Baby Gronk was born. Travis Kelce forever ruined his own ownership % on MNF, pulling in 8-93-1 and just bringing lots of pain on whoever tried to tackle him. Kelce is a bad, bad man. Fortunately and unfortunately, he also has a bad, bad price on DK this week. Min price to be exact. He is essentially a must-play on principle alone. He does draw one of the toughest coverage matchups in the NFL in All-World LB Patrick Willis, but Kelce’s usage on bubble screens, in motion, etc suggests that he’ll maintain a steady floor REGARDLESS of who is covering him. You’d need an awfully good reason to fade him.

Dwayne Bowe
Of course Bowe managed 5-81 against Darrelle Revis and Co. Alex Smith is going to need a similar performance from Bowe this week to have any shot against his former team. Expect targets peppered between Bowe, Charles, and Kelce. Despite the 49ers appearing friendly to WRs on paper, the Alex Smith to Dwayne Bowe connection isn’t quite as lethal as the Jay Cutler to Brandon Marshall (3 TDs) connection. Expect a modest performance from Bowe.

QB Alex Smith – REVENGE GAME

[Analysis viewable by Team Narrative members only]
Just kidding. Smith has little going for him other the revenge game factor, so play him at your own risk.

San Francisco 49ers

QB Colin Kaepernick
Kaepernick has been maddeningly consistent so far in 2014. Consistent in a good way: at least 54 rushing yards in his last three games, at least 200 passing yards and 1 TD in each game so far. And consistent in a BAD way: no games over 250 passing yards, no games over 2 passing 2 TDs, no games with a rushing TD, and frequent bad decision-making. Even though the bad seems to outweigh the good, Kaep is still putting up respectable scores. Once he gets the right matchup, with a healthy set of weapons, I think we’ll start to see his upside. The matchup with the Chiefs NFL-best pass-rush that completely disarmed the Dolphins and Patriots in back to back weeks makes considering Kaep a risky play. He has GPP appeal due to his mobility, but with a tough matchup for top weapon Michael Crabtree and a furious pass-rush on deck, Kaep will have his work cut out for him this week.

WR Michael Crabtree
Crabtree didn’t see much supply in Week 4 but still managed to finish 5-43. He will have his hands full this week with physical press man CB Sean Smith. Crabtree is a savvy route runner, but I always worry when a big WR like Crab matches up with an even bigger CB like Smith. Unless he’s simply able to run by Smith, I think Crabtree will be fighting for yards all night. I would rather target more favorable matchups at WR this week.

RB Frank Gore
Gore turned back the clock and righted the 49ers ship himself last week, racking up an insane 174 total yards and a receiving TD on 25 touches. His performances has reportedly inspired teammates and rejuvenated belief in the 49ers run game. That usually means that Frank is going to get more carries. It’s a ripe matchup for Gore, as the Chiefs allow the 13th-most rushing yards per game and is without key run defenders DE Mike Devito and MLB Derrick Johnson. Gore may be old, but he knows how to string together a solid performance in critical games. He’s a fine #2 RB this week.

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots

Cincinnati Bengals						New England Patriots
Sun – 8:30 PM						Gillette Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-1	46	23.5				1	46	22.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	26.7	6	19	4		Offense	16.5	28	24	23
Defense	16.5	28	24	23		Defense	26.7	6	19	4
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New England Patriots	2	28	1	15		Cincinnati Bengals	3	9	10	17
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Green	18	12	1	233		Edelman	36	26	1	283
Sanu	17	12	1	164		Amendola	7	3	0	16
Jones						Thompkins	11	6	0	53
Gresham	9	6	0	46		Gronkowski	26	13	3	147

Quick Grind

•The Bengals RBs should feast
•Gronk’s snap count is rising…
•Can Brady get the Pats offense back on track?

Cincinnati Bengals

WR AJ Green
Regardless of what you think about Darelle Revis’ performance thus far this year, he remains a shutdown CB who will be a large part of the Patriots gameplan to eliminate AJ Green. The Patriots as a team are the 7th-toughest coverage unit, and will likely double Green wherever he lines up. It makes Green a very risky play this week outside of GPPs, where the perception of his tough matchup should ensure a low ownership percentage.

RB Gio Bernard & Jeremy Hill
Coming off a game where the Patriots allowed nearly 200 rushing yards and 3 total TDs to Chiefs RBs, the Bengals thunder and lightning combination of Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard are both enticing plays. The Patriots are allowing both the 5th-most FPPG and 6th-most rushing yards to RBs, so there should be plenty of opportunity for both Bernard and Hill. Bernard is the safer option given his reception-fueled high floor and obnoxious touch volume to date. But from a value standpoint, the much cheaper Hill might be the better play as the primary between-the-tackles grinder. Consider Gio a top-8 option and Hill a sneaky #2 RB

Others
QB Andy Dalton lacks upside against a Pats defense allowing the 2nd-fewest FPPG to QBs. TE Jermaine Gresham is on the field to block, not catch.

New England Patriots

WR Julian Edelman
Edelman draws a tough matchup this week against the Bengals top CB Leon Hall. Hall will be extra problematic for Edelman as he kicks inside to the slot when the Bengals go to their nickel defense.

TE Rob Gronkowski
Gronk played 62% of snaps in Week 4, and as that number continues to rise, so too will his value in DFS. This week I think Gronk is just about the only chance the Patriots have in the passing game, unless one of their big outside WRs steps up. The Bengals appear to be middle-of-the-pack against TEs, but only appear so because they haven’t allowed a TD to one yet. They’re actually allowing the 2nd-most receptions to TEs thus far. Gronk will likely be largely overlooked relative to his elite TE peers this week, and makes a strong GPP play.

RB Steven Ridley
The Bengals are allowing the 9th-fewest FPPG to RBs. Any difficult matchup is reason enough to suggest avoiding the volatility of the Pats backfield.

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins

Seattle Seahawks						Washington Redskins
Mon – 8:30 PM						FedExField
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-7.5	45	26.25				7.5	45	18.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	27.7	5	12	3		Offense	23.8	14	13	6
Defense	23.8	14	13	6		Defense	27.7	5	12	3
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Washington Redskins	30	3	26	28		Seattle Seahawks	24	5	13	31
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Harvin	18	15	0	106		Garcon	38	24	1	255
Baldwin	16	10	0	105		Jackson	26	15	1	207
Kearse	10	7	0	91		Roberts	19	10	1	135
Willson	1	1	0	1		Reed	1	1	0	4

Quick Grind

•Vegas thinks the Seahawks should win with ease
•Seahawks playmakers have high upside vs inept Redskins defense
•Avoid the Redskins in cash games

Seattle Seahawks

QB Russell Wilson
I’m still waiting for a true breakout game from Russell Wilson, and he has a strong opportunity to do so here. The Redskins are giving up the 3rd-most FPPG to QBs. They have demonstrated minimal pass-rush the past two weeks which should give Wilson time to find his receivers for chunk plays downfield. The only worry here is his pass volume. If the Seahawks get up early, Wilson’s attempts will be limited. His hyper-efficient lead-management is not DFS-friendly.

RB Marshawn Lynch
The Redskins run defense remains average in PFF grading, despite their gaudy 3rd-toughest fantasy ranking. Regression is coming. I expect the Seahawks to run the offense through their Beast Mode engine, as usual. If the game goes to the Seahawks early, we could see a 2 TD performance from Lynch, as he rarely lets his foot off the gas.

WR Percy Harvin
Harvin has been quiet lately but there are few better matchups for him than against a Redskins defense that allows the 7th-most FPPG to WRs and is also tied for the 6th-most receptions allowed. Most importantly is the poor communication and awareness of the defense as a whole, which has allowed several TDs via poor adjustments, lack of help defense, and biting on double-moves. Harvin should find open space often and thrive this week.

TE Luke WIllson
Willson is replacing the injured Zach Miller and is looking very interesting against a Redskins defense that just allowed 3 TDs to 1st Ballet Hall of Famer Larry Donnell. I wrote up Willson in Week 1: “Seattle beat writers have Willson pegged as a breakout player this year as the Seahawks primary receiving TE. Willson certainly has the measurables: he’s 6’5, 251 lbs, and runs a 4.51 40.“ Willson gets his shot to live up to my mention this week, and although I don’t think he’ll see huge target numbers, I like his chances to produce against this defense even with limited volume. The Redskins LBs and safeties are an undisciplined mess in coverage.

Washington Redskins

QB Kirk Cousins
Kirk Cousins isn’t as bad as he showed last week, but the road sure doesn’t get much easier this week. The Seahawks appear to be weak against the pass, allowing the 9th-most FPPG to QBs, but remember that they were torched by Phillip Rivers, and gave up a strong line to Peyton Manning the very next week. Cousins is not Rivers or Manning. That ranking is likely to correct quickly, starting with this week. I would avoid Cousins.

WR Pierre Garcon
Of the Redskins WRs, Garcon has the most favorable matchup and makes for the least crazy DFS play. Garcon will see CB Byron Maxwell in coverage. Maxwell was essentially as dominant as Richard Sherman was in 2013, but has regressed in a major way so far in 2014. In Week 1 the Packers picked on Maxwell with Jordy Nelson and he allowed 9-79 (though he also managed an INT off a tipped ball), and the Broncos targeted him in Week 3 resulting in 10-152-1 allowed. It seems clear that savvy offenses identify Maxwell as an exploitable target. Kirk Cousins is no Rodgers or Manning, but Pierre Garcon has the talent to beat Maxwell. Garcon should be the Redskin with the most supply and highest floor as a result. He’s still just the least risky member of ‘Team Incredibly Risky’ this week.

WR DeSean Jackson
DeSean Jackson draws perhaps the worst matchup in the NFL in Richard Sherman, which will make his ownership percentage miniscule. His athletic talent gives him GPP winning upside… but the odds are seriously stacked against him here. You’ll be on an island if you roster Jackson this week.

RB Alfred Morris
Similar to the other Redskins, Alfred Morris doesn’t have a favorable matchup in this game. The Seahawks allow the 6th-fewest rushing yards and 5th-fewest FPPG to RBs. Morris is a volume-dependent runner and will need to be fed early and often for the Redskins to have any chance in this game. If you think the Redskins can hang around in this game, Morris becomes a dicey but interesting #2 RB.

RB Roy Helu
Where Alfred Morris is a weekly 0 in the passing game, Helu acts as the team’s third-down receiving option. If you trust Vegas and think the Seahawks will win this game with ease, then it would follow that Helu would see more snaps as the team is forced to pass. Helu has shown the ability to rack up several catches in a game, as well as break big plays both rushing and receiving. Helu’s versatility and the likely outcome of this game make him an interesting super-punt RB in GPPs.

TEs Niles Paul (concussion) and Jordan Reed (hammy)
Both of the Redskins receiving TEs are questionable this week and make for especially risky plays given the MNF factor. Of the two, Reed’s injury is more physically limiting and is often aggravated in a player’s first game back. If his athleticism is sapped, Reed isn’t much use to us. Regardless of which (if any) TE is active for MNF, they face a matchup that looks more inviting on paper than it truly is. The Seahawks numbers vs TEs are currently atrocious due to Antonio Gates’ 3 TD game, and the Broncos 2 TD game a week later. The Seahawks excellent coverage LBs and safeties should be able to limit the Redskins banged up TEs this week.

Hope you enjoyed the #GrindDown this week. If you did, drop a comment below, tweet me, or just send me an unmarked envelope filled with Orange Starburst.

Good luck this week!