NFL Grind Down: Week 5 - Page Two

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-10-05 15:02:55

Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys

Houston Texans						Dallas Cowboys
Sun – 1:00 PM						AT&T Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		4	46	21				-4	46	25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.8	21	27	19		Offense	28.8	4	18	1
Defense	28.8	4	18	1		Defense	21.8	21	27	19
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Dallas Cowboys	21	12	3	32		Houston Texans	4	17	19	8
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Johnson	34	22	0	262		Bryant	33	23	3	291
Hopkins	25	18	3	291		Williams	21	14	4	179
Posey						Beasley	10	8	0	75
Graham	12	9	0	95		Witten	23	15	0	156

Quick Grind

•Continue to target Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray as one of the top-2 RBs in the NFL right now
•Texans are overlooked GPP options
•Keep an eye on Texans RB Arian Foster’s health

Dallas Cowboys

QB Tony Romo
Romo was extremely efficient in Week 4, completing over 75% of his passes for 262 yards and 3 TDs vs the Saints. The Cowboys dominance in the run game opened up the play-action game and forced single-coverage on the outside, which Romo was able to exploit. But that was the Saints. This week he faces the Texans, who are allowing the 4th-fewest FPPG to QBs and have PFF’s 6th-best coverage grade. The windows will be tighter for Romo this week, and considering the Texans weakness toward the run anyway, he won’t need to force any throws. You can find better QBs in his price range

RB DeMarco Murray

The only thing that’s changed since last week with DeMarco Murray is that we’ve added another row to his consistently elite game log:

Murray couples elite pure running ability with a consistently heavy workload and dominant offensive line. This week, Murray’s equation faces a Texans defense that is allowing the 7th-most rushing yards to RBs. I see no way the Texans will be able to slow Murray down – he is the top RB option until further notice.

WR Dez Bryant
The Saints secondary focused on shutting down Dez in Week 4, using constant double-teams reminiscent of their 2013 meeting. He was held in check for the entire game, until easily scoring a TD against single coverage to bring his line to 3-44-1. This week Bryant draws another stiff test in shadow CB Jonathan Joseph. It’s not a favorable matchup for Dez, especially given the Cowboys likely success running the ball instead. Dez has elite upside regardless of the matchup, but there are better WR options this week.

WR Terrance Williams
Terrance Williams benefitted from the Saints focus on containing Dez Bryant in Week 4, as the second-year WR caught 6 passes for 77 yards and 2 TDs. Williams should continue to see the opponent’s weaker cover men as they focus on Dez, but at this point simply isn’t getting enough volume to be a recommended play in games that figure to be run-heavy.

WR Jason Witten
I don’t like Witten as an option this week because I think the Cowboys will use him to help block JJ Watt. Witten is already an integral component of the Cowboys’ run-blocking scheme, and with additional responsibilities in pass protection this week, he’ll be running fewer routes.

Houston Texans

WR DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins continues to produce early in 2014, scoring another TD in Week 4 en route to a 5-64-1 line. He consistently puts himself in a position to make big plays – and has made those plays more often than not. Hopkins big-play upside makes him a GPP option this week, as the Texans figure to be chasing the Cowboys on the scoreboard throughout.

WR Andre Johnson
Johnson is questionable this week with an ankle injury but is expected to play. The aging stud WR always seems to be dealing with a nagging injury. To his credit, Johnson played through the injury just fine in Week 4, tallying 6-71 vs the Bills. Johnson is still the target hog in the Texans offense, but his production is beginning to slip. Think of him more as a #2 WR against a Cowboys defense that is surprisingly allowing just the 3rd-fewest FPPG to WRs.

TE Garrett Graham
Graham is your weekly ‘Start TEs Against the Cowboys’ play. The Cowboys are allowing the most, well, everything to TEs, and it’s not particularly close. Their TE coverage incompetence makes Graham an intriguing punt option.

RB Arian Foster / Alf Blue
This is getting ridiculous. Foster kind of played in Week 4, splitting work with backup Alfred Blue and finishing with 61 total yards. Apparently the Texans figured that even a noticeably limping Foster was better than no Foster at all. Foster predictably was in and out of practice this week, and is probable for Week 5. His true health remains to be seen, making him a risky play in DFS. The one benefit of this situation is that Foster’s ownership will be miniscule. If you have a good feeling about his health, or think he looks good in warm-ups, Foster makes for a high-risk/high-reward play against a ragtag Cowboys defense that owns PFFs 3rd-worst run defense grade.

OTHERS
If you play on a site where you get bonus points for nicknames, The Amish Rifle becomes an elite QB

Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions

Buffalo Bills						Detroit Lions
Sun – 1:00 PM						Ford Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7	44	18.5				-7	44	25.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	19.8	23	26	21		Offense	21.3	22	15	18
Defense	21.3	22	15	18		Defense	19.8	23	26	21
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Detroit Lions	1	8	2	19		Buffalo Bills	13	7	20	14
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Watkins	32	17	2	197		Johnson	36	21	2	341
Woods	29	11	0	119		Tate	31	24	0	317
Williams	16	7	1	134		Ross	8	7	1	108
Chandler	13	9	0	116		Pettigrew	5	3	0	28

Quick Grind

•Bills QB change should make little difference this week
•Target Lions RB Reggie Bush
•Be cautious with Calvin Johnson

Buffalo Bills

RB CJ Spiller & Fred Jackson
Let’s review the breakdown of the Bills RB duo: “If the Bills RBs could fuse together and form one Super-Bill RB, we’d be a lot happier. Unfortunately the Bills employ a pseudo-50/50 split between CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson, with game flow tipping the volume scale toward one or the other. When the Bills are rolling, Spiller should rack up more carries; but when they get stomped, Jackson sees more work as the passing specialist”
Neither RB figures to have much success on the ground against a Lions D that allows the 10th-fewest rushing yards per game. However, FJax figures to see more run in a game that the Bills should train in throughout. Both backs will be risky plays until we see if Kyle Orton can actually move the offense down the field.

WR Sammy Watkins
Given the QB change, I think few will be on Watkins this week. It’s an opportunity for the risk-takers to take a shot that Watkins and Orton have a strong connection from the get-go.

QB KYLE ORTON
Slow your roll, bud. Let the neck beard prove himself first before you stick him in your lineups. He just came out of ‘retirement’, after all.

Detroit Lions

QB Matt Stafford
Stafford didn’t really miss a beat when the best WR on the planet was used solely as a decoy last week, throwing for 293 yards and 2 TDs against the Jets. This week, both Calvin and Golden Tate’s status is up in the air. Stafford is looking like a volatile play in a matchup he would be expected to dominate with healthy weapons.

WR Calvin Johnson
Megatron was a decoy last week and nobody is happy about it. The question is: will it happen again this week? My guess is that Calvin actually makes a real contribution this week, but I completely understand if you want to avoid him until he’s clearly healthy.

WR Golden Tate
With Calvin hobbling around last week, Tate seamlessly overtook primary receiver duties and racked up 8-116 vs the Jets. I like Tate again this week, vs a Bills defense which allows the 12th-most FPPG to WRs, and seems to rotate which CB deserves to benched on a weekly basis. Tate is an ideal #2 WR on full PPR sites, healthy Calvin or not.

RB Reggie Bush
With Joique’s Bell rung (see what I did there), and third string back Theo Riddick also out, Bush should see a rare full workload this week. The matchup isn’t great from a rushing standpoint, as the Bills allow the 5th-fewest rushing yards per game… but they also play to Bush’s strengths and allow the 2nd-most receptions. With Calvin still hobbled, Tate on the injury report, and no RBs left standing, Bush is a sneaky bet for a massive total yardage day. He nearly becomes a must-start if either Calvin or Tate end up sitting.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Pittsburgh Steelers						Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun – 1:00 PM						EverBank Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-6.5	46.5	26.5				6.5	46.5	20
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	24.3	12	10	12		Offense	14.5	31	22	31
Defense	14.5	31	22	31		Defense	24.3	12	10	12
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Jacksonville Jaguars	32	30	31	30		Pittsburgh Steelers	18	14	21	27
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Brown	39	29	5	427		Shorts	14	7	1	60
Wheaton	26	19	0	227		Lee	14	8	0	73
Moore	1	1	0	12		Robinson	26	17	0	192
Miller	27	21	1	197		Harbor	8	8	0	69

Quick Grind

•All of the Steelers are in play… and will be VERY popular
•The Jaguars passing attack could be sneaky in GPPs

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger
Big Ben did his part in Week 4, completing 71.7% of his passes on his way to 325 yards and 3 TDs… but the Steelers still managed to lose to the Bucs. The Steelers poor defense will be especially beneficial to us in DFS, as it should force shootout situations and inflate Ben’s passing volume. Hopefully we see plenty of passes from Ben this week against a Jaguars defense that allowing the MOST FPPG and passing yards to opposing QBs. Last week the Jaguars were lit up for 370 yards and 3 TDs by Phillips Rivers – that kind of line isn’t out of the question for Big Ben this week. He’s certainly a top-10 QB option this week, with a strong matchup-based ceiling for GPPs.

WR Antonio Brown
My love of Antonio Brown is well-documented in this space, and if I don’t move on in a hurry I’ll probably start writing haikus about him.

The Jaguars this week
Allow the second-most points
Brown will surely feast

Too late! Brown is the top WR play this week

WR Markus Wheaton
Wheaton was a sneaky play in last week’s #GrindDown, and while he didn’t have an explosive day, he posted a useful 4-67 vs the Bucs. Unfortunately Wheaton is working through a groin injury this week and has been limited thus far in practice. He draws a prime matchup vs the Jags, who let complementary WR Eddie Royal get loose for 2 TDs last week. Keep an eye on Wheaton’s health, and if he practices fully, fire him up as a salary relief #3 WR.

TE Heath Miller
Heath Miller showed up in a big way in Week 4, catching a whopping 10 passes for 85 yards and a TD. Miller tied for the team lead in targets, and Ben fired a few of those targets into tight coverage, so it’s pretty clear the duo’s chemistry and trust is the same as it ever was. The Jaguars were getting torched by TEs every week until they last week, where they were instead torched by everyone but the TE. Expect their struggles with TEs to begin anew this week. Miller is a top-10 option with red-zone appeal and a good floor on full PPR sites.

RB Le’Veon Bell
You know you’ve become an elite RB when 109 total yards is a disappointment. Le’Veon Bell’s 19-63 rushing line let many Grinders down last week (myself included), but he did well to salvage his overall production on full PPR sites by adding a Fortesian 6-46 through the air. Bell’s role in the Steelers passing attack cannot be understated: he’s up to 19 catches for 192 yards in 2014, which is an average of 4.75 catches and 48 yards per game. That’s nearly an extra 10 FPPG in receiving alone. Bell’s unique receiving ability is complemented by a matchup with a Jaguars defense that hasn’t covered RBs well, allowing the 4th-most receptions per game to opposing RBs. Oh yeah, they also allow the 3rd-most FPPG too. Bell is a top-2 option at RB this week.

Defense
Yes, the Steelers defense is facing the Jaguars. And the Jaguars suck. But the Steeler’s defense also sucks. If Bortles has a little more freedom in the offense I could see him doing damage against the secondary. The Steelers a top-5 defense this week on matchup alone… just don’t be surprised if the Jaguars are able to hang around in this game.

Others
Some Grinders will feel like getting cute and playing LeGarrette Blount, thinking the Steelers will cruise and Blount will rack up carries in garbage time. That’s too risky for me.

Jacksonville Jaguars

QB Blake Bortles
I think this is the week of Bortles, and I’m not alone. If you want the full scoop on Bortles you must check out Adam Levitan’s awesome breakdown here

WR Allen Robinson
Robinson seemed in a great position to rack up production in Week 4 after Cecil Shorts left with an injury, but the rook was unable to turn his 7 targets into much; he finished with 5-38 receiving. The Jaguars are at least trying to scheme their most physically talented the ball. This week Robinson will likely face CB William Gay, who had the Steelers top coverage grade in 2013 and is only allowing 50% of passes completed so far in 2014. Gay gave up catches of 31 and 40 yards in Week 4 though, big play susceptibility that Robinson will hopefully be able to capitalize on. The matchup worries me, but if you’re taking Bortles in a GPP, Robinson is likely his top target at WR.

WR Allen Hurns
Allen Hurns is officially on my list of ‘Right Place/Right Time” players, next to guys like Eddie “30 TD pace for a month” Royal. Hurns earned his spot for pulling in another 40+ yard pass last week, his third such game. Hurns’ will matchup with CB Cortez Allen this week; Allen has the 9th-worst CB coverage grade. Coupled with the Steelers 7th-worst team coverage grade, Hurns stands a good shot of slipping behind the defense again. He’s a risky GPP play, but might be in for a little higher floor this week given all the injuries to other Jags WRs.

TE Clay Harbor
Don’t sleep on Harbor (you might get wet!), who went 8-69 in his 2014 debut. Harbor has underrated athleticism (was temporarily moved to WR by the Eagles), and will consistently be running short and intermediate routes. He has sneaky punt appeal on full PPR sites.

RB Toby Gerhart & Denard Robinson
I’m listing the two Jaguars RBs alongside each other, because for now at least, they are an even committee. Not even a one-two punch, Gerhart and Robinson managed a one-two nudge or tap in Week 4, combining for 19 carries and just 57 yards. I hate it when coaches use their RBs as the Jags are, as it seems to really prevent either back from getting in a rhythm. The Jags RBs are less intriguing than the matchup itself – against a Steelers defense that has been Jekyll and Hyde in run defense. In Weeks 1 & 2, the Steelers allowed more than 150 rushing yards per game to RBs; in Weeks 3 & 4 they allowed less than 50 per game. The Steelers can certainly be gashed by dedicated run schemes with mauling offensive lines (Browns, Ravens), but were able to take advantage of injuries and poor line play to limit opposing rushers in recent weeks (Panthers, Bucs). The Jags likely fall closer to the latter two, but still have as good a shot as they’ll have all year at establishing a ground game.

Others
WR Ace Sanders returns from suspension this week and will likely claim the #3 WR role. He was a sneaky full PPR option in 2013…

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