NFL Grind Down: Week 6 - Page Two

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-10-12 05:33:37

Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals

Carolina Panthers						Cincinnati Bengals
Sun – 1:00 PM						Paul Brown Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7	45	19				-7	45	26
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	20.8	23	8	30		Offense	24.3	13	17	10
Defense	24.3	13	17	10		Defense	20.8	23	8	30
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Cincinnati Bengals	3	15	6	31		Carolina Panthers	23	27	19	7
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Benjamin	47	24	3	367		Green	25	17	2	314
Cotchery	19	16	0	204		Jones
Avant	21	12	1	132		Sanu	26	17	2	234
Olsen	40	27	4	326		Gresham	13	8	0	61

Quick Grind

• Vegas predicts a low scoring affair that the Bengals should control
• Bengals WR AJ Green likely out
• Target the Bengals running game
• Avoid the Panthers RB situation

Carolina Panthers

WR Kelvin Benjamin

Hordes of people flocked to roster Benjamin last week, and they were promptly rewarded with a 3-catch, 38 yard performance vs the Bears. Pretty bad considering Benjamin’s team-high 11 targets. However the silver lining to Kelvin Benjamin flopping last week lies in the effect it will have on his ownership this week. The vast majority of Benjamin’s Week 5 owners won’t be coming back to the well this week. Especially considering the road matchup vs a Bengals defense allowing the 6th-fewest FPPG to opposing WRs. Benjamin actually should draw the most favorable matchup in the Bengals secondary – he exclusively plays LWR and should primarily see RCB Adam Jones. Jones has allowed 14-208-1, and a 120.4 QB rating thus far. He’s also just 5’9…

The overall defensive matchup will be tough for the Panthers, but I do think Benjamin has a chance to exploit his matchup on the left side of the field. He’s the same ol’ high TD-upside GPP play as usual, with the added bonus of one of the lowest ownerships we’ll likely see the rest of the season.

TE Greg Olsen

We go back to charting Greg Olsen’s games this week so you can see just how consistent he’s been in terms of both supply and performance. Olsen may not get the same hype that other ascending TE talents do, but he’s capable of extremely steady, high-floor production. It’s a skillset the Panthers will desperately need this week, and should put to good use against a Bengals D fresh off getting terrorized for 185 yards and 2 TDs by Patriots TEs. Olsen is a top-3 TE this week and possible GPP pivot from the top options.

QB Cam Newton

Cam got his team the victory this week, but didn’t help our rosters much. I do bear some good news though: he’s becoming a real pocket QB. Cam’s preseason injuries I think will ultimately be a huge benefit to the huge QB, as he’s been forced to run the offense from within the pocket. The more refined his passing get, the higher his upside will be once he’s truly able to cut loose and run again. We did begin to see a few designed QB runs in this game as well, including a bizarre WR option play (yay college play-calling!). Newton didn’t look spry, but the fact that the playbook is loosening up suggests he’s closer than ever to being cut loose. Temper your expectations for a breakout here, though, as the Bengals allow the 3rd-fewest FPPG and passing TDs to QBs. Newton will have to emulate the Patriots TE-heavy attack to fuel the offense this week. Newton is an undesirable QB option this week, who will of course go off now that I’ve written that he won’t.

Last Man Standing: The Story of the 2014 Carolina Panthers RBs
Here’s how the Panthers RB situation looks right now:

• Out: #1 RB DeAngelo Williams
• Questionable: #2 RB Jonathan Stewart
• Active: RB Darrin Reaves, RB Chris Ogbonnaya, RB Fozzy Whitaker

It’s another week of Panthers RB Roulette. This week’s added wrinkle is the potential return of Jonathan Stewart. IF he is both active and without limitation, Stewart would make an interesting contrarian punt RB. I would avoid the other RBs.

Cincinnati Bengals

Key Injury Alert: WR AJ Green likely to miss Week 6 – Upgrade M Sanu

RB Gio Bernard

Despite solid efficiency (4.8 YPC), Gio was limited to just 13 carries as the Bengals were steamrolled by the Patriots in Week 5. Expect the Bengals to re-devote themselves to the run in Week 6, especially against a Panthers defense allowing 117.8 RB rushing yards per game and climbing. The Panthers defense has been declawed (I will reuse this joke all season) by opposing RBs in recent weeks:

Each of the RBs above is a dual-threat, as is Gio. With no AJ Green, Gio becomes the top target in the passing game and the unquestioned focal point of the offense. His high volume both on the ground and through the air make Gio one of the top RB plays this week, suitable for cash games and GPPs.

WR Mohamed Sanu

Sanu inherits the #1 WR role by default in the wake of AJ Green’s injury. Thus, Sanu’s target supply and role are incongruent with his current price across the industry. He’ll be the only talented Bengals receiving option this week, in a matchup that seems to be getting more and more favorable each week. The Panthers give up the 13th-most FPPG to WRs, but more importantly are also tied for the 2nd-most TDs allowed per game. Sanu has the skillset of a possession receiver, but his size (6’2, 210) should serve him well as the lone Bengals red-zone WR this week. If you’re paying up for other positions, consider Sanu a solid salary relief WR.

RB Jeremy Hill

Hill seriously underwhelmed in Week 5 – instead of pounding a weak Patriots run defense, the Bengals got blown out quickly and Hill received a season-low in carries (2). Can we chalk Hill’s lack of involvement up to game flow, or will his usage simply be unpredictable? He receives mention here because of his performance the last time WR AJ Green was inactive: 17 touches, 96 yards, and 1 TD. It’s a leap of faith given recent weeks, but in the wake of Green’s injury Hill should again receive relevant volume. He makes for a high-risk deep punt RB in GPPs.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

Pittsburgh Steelers						Cleveland Browns
Sun – 1:00 PM						FirstEnergy Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		2	47	22.5				-2	47	24.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	22.8	18	13	16		Offense	25.8	11	14	3
Defense	25.8	11	14	3		Defense	22.8	18	13	16
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Cleveland Browns	28	30	22	22		Pittsburgh Steelers	6	10	12	20
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Brown	51	34	5	511		Austin	23	16	2	169
Wheaton	28	20	0	244		Hawkins	41	24	0	271
Moore	2	2	0	38		Benjamin	12	8	3	117
Miller	31	24	1	243		Cameron	15	6	0	103

Quick Grind

•No, that’s not a typo: the Browns are favored to win this game
•All of the Steelers are in play
•Target the Browns running game (RB Ben Tate)

Pittsburgh Steelers

WR Antonio Brown

We aren’t going to talk about Brown’s performance last week because it makes my heart hurt. The only thing that seems to cheer me up is making a chart of who Brown might see in coverage this week:

It would take way too long to explain the incredibly sophisticated and complex methodology that created the ‘torched’ projections above, so I’ll just say that Brown seems like a really, really strong WR play this week.

RB Le’Veon Bell

I know, I know, Le’Veon Bell burned you last week too. Let’s look at the positives. He was still an effective dual-threat RB (118 total yards). He was still efficient on the ground (5.5 YPC). He still racked up another 5 catches. And his price remains at an actionable level. To top it off, this week Bell faces the team he broke out for nearly 200 total yards and 34.7 DK points against in Week 1. The Browns D actually got worse against RBs after facing Bell, giving up 140+ rushing yards to RBs in weeks 2 and 3 before a steady showing vs Shonn Greene and the Titans. They currently allow more than 120 yards on the ground and the 3rd-most FPPG to RBs. If you can find it in your heart to forgive him for last week, Le’Veon Bell is a no-brainer top RB option.

WR Markus Wheaton

Markus Wheaton’s performances have basically been trending in the wrong direction ever since his strong start vs the Browns. If Haden sits, Wheaton will be guaranteed a matchup with an atrocious corner, and should be open at will. Most will have given up no Wheaton by now, making him an interesting salary relief WR play this week.

TE Heath Miller

Aside from his Week 4 explosion, Heath Miller has been relatively pedestrian so far in 2014. It seems like he’ll soon settle into being a 4-5 catch, 40-50 yard guy each week. Miller’s floor could be in for a bit of a boost, though, as the Browns allow 6.3 receptions per game to TEs (5th-worst) as well as the 9th-most receiving yards. Miller is a fringe top-10 option with red-zone appeal and a good floor on full PPR sites.

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Big Ben disappointed DFS owner last week in a prime matchup vs the Jags. but did tally his 3rd-straight game completing more than 70% of his passes .Oddly, Ben was nearly perfect throwing to everyone except Antonio Brown, who accounted for 7 of his 10 incompletions. The duo should easily get back on track this week in their rematch vs the Browns. Cleveland has played uninspired pass defense since Ben last saw them — they are now allowing the 5th-most FPPG to QBs. Ben may not be able to replicate his yardage total from their Week 1 clash (365 passing yards), but I think he can easily top 1 TD. He makes for a sneaky GPP QB this week.

Cleveland Browns

WR Andrew Hawkins

It wasn’t a good week for ‘guys I made a table for’. Hawkins flopped in terms of production last week, but his supply remained intact:

Seems like last week was simply an outlier so far. The return of Jordan Cameron did little to impact Hawkins targets, so he should continue to be consistent option on full PPR sites

TE Jordan Cameron

Cameron didn’t produce (3-33) in Week 5 but he still received the 2nd-most targets. There’s not much in Cameron’s box scores that suggests he’s either a reliable or high-ceiling play, but let’s not forget what he did last season, especially with Hoyer at QB. This week Cameron faces a Steelers defense he tallied 2-47 against in Week 1 prior to leaving with injury. The Steelers have only allowed 3-33 to TEs the past two weeks but played teams with nondescript TEs (TB, JAC), and should be stretched by Cameron’s athleticism. Cameron is especially enticing on sites like DraftKings where his price has plummeted to just $3600 ($600 above minimum price)

RB Ben Tate

Say what you will about Ben Tate’s fragility – he’s still a hell of a runner, and he fits this scheme well. Tate bulldozed the Titans for 124 yards on 22 carries (5.6 YPC) in Week 5, and seems to have a chokehold on the Browns carries. Locked in behind one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in the NFL, Tate will be an excellent value for a few weeks until he gets hurt again. In their Week 1 clash, Tate was ripping this Steelers defense to the tune of 41 yards on 6 carries before injuring his knee. The Browns RBs racked up 175 rushing yards and 2 TDs that week. Their dominance has continued regardless of the running back used. It’s a testament to the strength of the Browns offensive line, which ranks as PFFs 4th-best run-blocking unit. This week’s rematch again pits the mauling Browns line against the Steelers 8th-worst run-defending unit. Sounds like a bit of a mismatch. With the Browns favored we should expect high doses of Ben Tate – he’s a high upside #2 RB.

Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins

Green Bay Packers						Miami Dolphins
Sun – 1:00 PM						Sun Life Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3	49	26				3	49	23
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	26.8	7	5	22		Offense	24.0	14	23	8
Defense	24.0	14	23	8		Defense	26.8	7	5	22
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Miami Dolphins	5	26	7	21		Green Bay Packers	7	21	10	5
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Nelson	52	34	4	525		Wallace	35	20	3	246
Cobb	34	24	6	273		Hartline	26	16	1	161
Boykin	7	2	0	17		Gibson	13	7	0	65
Rodgers	4	2	0	52		Clay	22	14	0	111

Quick Grind

•One of the highest Vegas totals and a close spread = fantasy goodness
•Target the Packers
•Be careful with the Dolphins RB situation

Green Bay Packers

QB Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers relaxed all over the Vikings in Week 5, racking up 3 TDs easily in the first half. The game was a route so let’s jump right into this week’s matchup. Vegas has the Packers as just 3-point favorites in this one, with a high total that’s been bouncing around 49. So we should see plenty of scoring from both sides in this one. On paper it looks as though the Packers could have a tough time with the Dolphins defense, which is stout vs both the pass and the run. The Dolphins boast both the 4th best coverage grade and the 8th-best run defense grade on Pro Football Focus. They also allow the 6th-fewest FPPG to QBs. I am still approximately 0% worried about the Packers passing attack in this one. I think this is a clear case of people taking a cursory look at the defensive rankings or DVP and dismissing Rodgers in light of his ‘bad matchup’. Take a look at what QBs and what teams the Dolphins accumulated these averages against – Rodgers will be just fine. and makes for a ‘contrarian’ pivot from the chalk elite QBs.

WR Jordy Nelson

Nelson will be moved around the formation this week to find the most favorable matchup. My guess is he ends up testing CB Cortland Finnegan. Finnegan is enjoying a bit of a resurgence this season after being torched repeatedly in St. Louis last year. I think his coverage ratings will dip a bit after this game though. The 6’3, 217 Nelson should have no problem exposing the 5’10 Finnegan. Jordy is an excellent stud WR for GPPs.

WR Randall Cobb

Another game, another TD for little Randall Cobb. I think we’ll be saying that again this week as well. So far in 2014, Cobb has worked 91.9% of snaps out of the slot. That will place him in the coverage of Jimmy Wilson. Wilson has bounced between safety and slot corner in the last few years, and was an especially effective slot corner in 2013, only giving up more than 50 yards in a game twice all season. I have a hunch that Wilson won’t be able to hang with Cobb’s separation and agility, but there’s no doubt it’s tougher than the average matchup. Still, I think Cobb makes an interesting contrarian #2 WR for GPPs on full PPR sites (what a mouthful!)

WR Davante Adams

If you’re a receiver, it’s probably a good sign when your QB is openly talking about how your separation skills pop out ono tape. Adams is already fresh off scoring his first career TD, and it sounds like more are on the way. I’m not sure we’ll see it in this game though, because I the matchups shake out how I suggest, that will leave Adams locked up by shutdown CB Brent Grimes. Because Grimes won’t leave his side, the Packers can basically employ the same tactic they used against Richard Sherman – ‘sacrificing’ a lesser receiver to his coverage and getting your best players in more favorable matchups elsewhere. The chance of Adams getting all Grimy in this one makes him a risky punt WR this week.

RB Eddie Lacy

Eddie Lacy got his groove back in Week 5, pummeling a weak Vikings defense for 105 yards and 2 TDs on 13 carries; he also added 3-27 through the air. I think that’s really all Lacy needed to ‘get going’, he was hitting holes with good burst, and displaying impressive vision. I don’t think he’s in a good spot to replicate last week’s performance here, however. The Dolphins are fairly stout against the run, with the 8th-best run defense grade, and an emerging star at LB in Jelani Jenkins. It would make a lot more sense for the Pack to focus on the pass instead of battering against this solid Dolphins front. Lacy is always a good bet for punching in TDs that the passing attack sets up, though, which will likely be overlooked this week.

Miami Dolphins

WR Mike Wallace

We last saw Mike Wallace and the Dolphins in Week 4, when they were trouncing the Raiders in London. Wallace himself actually had a quiet showing, because the game got out of hand so quickly. He corralled 3 of his 4 targets for 35 yards and a TD, then basically sat out the rest of the game. Expect him to again be the featured option in the passing game this week vs the Packers. The Pack are playing tough pass defense this season and are the 3rd-best coverage unit in the NFL. Though Wallace is moved around the formation, he will still likely see CB Tramon Williams in coverage most often. Williams is allowing just a 57.8 QB Rating on passes into his coverage this season. It’s not a favorable matchup, but Wallace will be moved all throughout the formation to create other mismatches. And I’m sure that Wallace and Tannehill will try to test Williams deep – he was beat for a 55 yard TD by DeSean Jackson last year. The deep ball connection between Wallace and Tannehill isn’t quite in sync yet, but eventually they will start hitting them. All told, this is a tough matchup for Wallace but his versatility makes him a #2 WR for GPPs

QB Ryan Tannehill

It took a trip to London and a date with the Raiders to get Ryan Tannehill back on track, but he did it. Tannehill completed 74.2% of his passes vs the Raiders, en route to 278 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT; he also picked up 5-35 on the ground. Yes, it was the Raiders, but it’s also an encouraging step for a QB who everyone with a microphone or keyboard was trashing prior to Week 4. Tannehill faces a much stiffer test this week in a Green Bay defense who has been extremely strong vs the pass so far in 2014. The Packers have the 3rd-best team coverage grade on PFF< and are also allowing just the 7th-fewest FPPG to QBs. They also have done a great job limiting scoring and forcing turnovers, as QBs average the 2nd-fewest passing TDs per game, while also throwing the 3rd-most INTs per game. So it doesn’t seem like a very friendly matchup for Tannehill, does it? Even though he comes with a very cheap salary, I would avoid Tannehill this week outside of maybe a Tanny/Wallace GPP stack.

RB Lamar Miller AND Knowshon Moreno

After a few weeks of clarity when picking Dolphins RBs for DFS, we return to a 2-man backfield of uncertainty. We don’t know what kind of carry split will go on Sunday when Knowshon Moreno returns to action. Prior to his injury, Knowshon seemed to have sewn up the lead RB gig, with Lamar Miller slotting in as a change-of-pace. But Miller played awfully well the past few weeks – I wonder if he hasn’t earned himself a larger share of the carries. Of course this is a situation to avoid in DFS. But if you have a sense of which way the carries will go in this backfield, it could be a profitable risk to put either Moreno or Miller in your lineup. I’ve been talking about how horrible the Packers are vs the run since before the TNF opener in Seattle. They certainly haven’t made much progress in the interim, sporting the 3rd-worst run defense grade, and allowing 124.6 rushing yards per game to RBs (4th-most). And the Dolphins O-Line is much better than you think: their 8th-ranked run-blocking unit should simply bulldoze the Packers front seven. I’m not saying to throw a Dolphins RB in your lineup willy nilly just because the Packers run defense sucks; I’m just saying that if you do you might win a million bucks.

Others

WR Jarvis Landry should be in for extra snaps as the slot WR this week, with Brandon Gibson doubtful.

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