NFL Grind Down: Week 7 - Page Four

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-10-19 14:55:16

Tennessee Titans at Washington Redskins

Tennessee Titans						Washington Redskins
Sun – 1:00 PM						FedExField
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		5	46	20.5				-5	46	25.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	17.3	28	29	17		Offense	22.0	21	11	16
Defense	22.0	21	11	16		Defense	17.3	28	29	17
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Washington Redskins	32	6	22	21		Tennessee Titans	19	18	19	25
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Wright	39	26	3	229		Garcon	47	30	2	309
Washington	28	12	0	160		Jackson	42	23	3	479
Hunter	36	15	1	314		Roberts	37	20	2	219
Walker	44	29	3	421		Reed	12	9	0	96

Quick Grind

•Few core plays but interesting GPP targets in this game
•Target the Redskins offense

Tennessee Titans

WR Justin Hunter

Maybe Hunter will catch some highlights of Andre Holmes on TV this week and realize what a prototypical WR talent is capable of. This week is as good as any for Hunter to finally break out, considering the Redskins have the single worst pass coverage grade on PFF, allow the 11th-most FPPG to WRs, and don’t really have any talent to speak of in their secondary. Fire up Hunter as a GPP WR with Holmesian-type upside.

TE Delanie Walker

Walker had another serviceable effort last week, pulling in 3 of his 8 targets for 57 yards. He has been effective on routes at all depths, even with Whitehurst at QB, and makes for a safe and solid TE option this week against a Redskins team that allows the 12th-most FPPG to TEs.

RB Bishop Sankey

Sankey will likely get a shot at redemption this week with Shonn Greene unlikely to play. Sankey was unimpressive in his lead back audition vs the Jags last week. compiling just 18-61 on the ground. The Redskins present a curious matchup in that they allow the 6th-fewest FPPG to RBs but also have the 6th-worst run defense grade. We should see regression eventually, but the Redskins have held down some talented runners so far in 2014. I’m not sure Sankey will buck the trend, but as an NFL RB likely to receive the majority of his team’s carries, he’s worthy of consideration.

WR Kendall Wright

Wright caught one pass for six yards in a cake matchup with the Jags last week. Until he receives consistent supply Wright should be avoided in DFS.

Washington Redskins

WR DeSean Jackson

DJax is thriving as the featured WR and playmaker in this offense, and again went over 100 receiving yards on limited touches last week. His big-play potential makes Jackson a weekly GPP option.

TE Jordan Reed

What a return by Jordan Reed. The 2nd-year matchup nightmare promptly led the Redskins in both targets and receptions upon his return last week. His price has seen a jump on the sites where he was an awesome value last week, but Reed’s role and matchup vs a Titans defense that allows the 8th-most FPPG to TEs make him a top-5 TE option this week, especially on full PPR sites.

RB Alfred Morris

I wrote an awful lot about how I thought Morris could crack the Cardinals injury-depleted run defense, and instead he racked up a whopping 41 rushing yards. Morris needs both a favorable matchup and game script working in his favor in order to be a good DFS option. And hey, what do you know, he has both this week! The Titans allow the 10th-most rushing yards to RBs, even after stifling the Jags wimpy run game last week. The Redskins are also favored in this one, which should mean both extra clock-killing carries and goal-line opportunities for Alf. Fire him up as an upside #2 RB this week.

WR Pierre Garcon

SQUEEKY WHEEL ALERT. Garcon was again an afterthought in Week 6 but is enjoying a stroll down Narrative Street this week as HC Jay Gruden has talked about getting the underutilized WR more touches. Narrative Street has been awfully profitable for us thus far, and coupled with a favorable matchup against exploitable Titans CB, makes Garcon an intriguing GPP play this week.

QB Kirk Cousins

The good news: Cousins racked up 354 yards and 2 TDs against the Cardinals last week. The bad news: he also threw 3 INTs and cost his team the game. While most focus on the INTs and recent news that RG3 will likely get his job back upon his return, we should turn our attention to a Titans secondary that just allowed Blake Bortles to pass for 336 yards. In a vacuum, the Titans are a team we would target QBs against, so don’t forget about Cousins in your GPP lineups this week.

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers

Kansas City Chiefs						San Diego Chargers
Sun – 4:05 PM						Qualcomm Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		4	44.5	20.25				-4	44.5	24.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	23.8	16	21	6		Offense	27.3	5	3	27
Defense	27.3	5	3	27		Defense	23.8	16	21	6
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
San Diego Chargers	10	15	8	3		Kansas City Chiefs	11	9	16	15
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Bowe	23	14	0	195		Allen	41	28	0	296
Jenkins	6	5	0	19		Floyd	25	17	3	362
Hammond	3	1	0	22		Royal	34	22	5	325
Fasano	20	12	1	123		Gates	37	24	6	302

Quick Grind

•One of the highest Vegas totals and a close spread = fantasy goodness
•Branden Oliver is the real deal

Kansas City Chiefs

RB Jamaal Charles

With all the hype and praise of guys like DeMarco Murray, Matt Forte, etc, I think people are forgetting about Jamaal Charles. Last we saw him, he piled up 15-80 and 5.3 YPC vs a tough 49ers run defense. The early bye should mean the Charles will be fully healthy. The matchup with the Chargers seems tough, but keep in mind they were just cracked open for 126 yards by one of the league’s worst rushing attacks last week vs the Raiders. I think Charles feasts this week. He’s a top-5 RB that is almost $3000 less than the most expensive RB on DK.

TE Travis Kelce

Kelce predictably struggled vs the 49ers in Week 5, seriously burning the hordes of people who rostered him. Hopefully brain-dead HC Andy Reid realizes his usage failures and again schemes Kelce like he did vs the Pats, when Baby Gronk ripped off 8-93-1. Kelce is a risky play due to his unpredictable usage, but he has heaps of upside.

WR Dwayne Bowe

Bowe recorded an uninspiring 3-42 vs the 49ers, and this week will tangle with a tough CB matchup for the millionth week in a row. Chargers CB Brandon Flowers has been one of the best corners in the NFL this season, and could easily ball hawk one of the weak-armed Alex Smith throws that come Bowe’s way.

San Diego Chargers

QB Philip Rivers

Rivers continued MVP-campaign last week with a 313 yard, 3 TD aerial assault on the Raiders overmatched secondary. Rivers has been simply excellent this season, moving seamlessly in chaotic pockets and dropping dimes to his entire complement of receivers. Though QBs have struggled against the Chiefs of late and score the 10th-fewest FPPG against them so far in 2014, Rivers offensive scheme and skillset sets up nicely to both exploit the weak Chiefs secondary, and minimize the Chiefs pass-rush. Rivers is a top-5 option this week.

RB Branden Oliver

I said Branden Oliver was the real deal last week and got some push back – and all Oliver did was rack up 30 touches, 124 total yards, and a TD. He is truly maximizing his opportunity, and should continue his emergence against a Chiefs defense that allows the 5th-most rushing yards per game to RBs. Oliver makes for a top 10 RB option this week, and remains fairly priced throughout the industry.

WR Malcom Floyd

Floyd is an interesting matchup play this week as he should be able to exploit frequent burn victim Marcus Cooper, who has actually allowed more receptions, yards, and TDs than Floyd has even compiled himself (Cooper: 23-391-5 vs Floyd: 17-362-3). It’s an excellent matchup for the 6’5 lid-lifting WR.

TE Antonio Gates

Gates hauled in another TD last week and will continue to be one of the best TD threats at the TE position. Additionally, the Chiefs will again be without stud safety Eric Berry this week. Look for Gates to challenge the middle of the field regularly. He’s a top-10 TE option this week.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

New York Giants						Dallas Cowboys
Sun – 4:25 PM						AT&T Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		5.5	48	21.25				-5.5	48	26.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	22.2	20	20	13		Offense	27.5	4	12	3
Defense	27.5	4	12	3		Defense	22.2	20	20	13
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Dallas Cowboys	4	10	2	31		New York Giants	9	28	9	13
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Cruz	41	23	1	337		Bryant	57	36	4	439
Randle	49	28	2	247		Williams	29	18	5	320
Beckham						Beasley	16	13	0	109
Donnell	34	26	4	242		Witten	33	21	1	239

Quick Grind

•Higher Vegas total and plenty of tasty DFS option
•DeMarco Murray
•Giants WRs have added opportunity following Victor Cruz’s injury

NY Giants

WR Rueben Randle

Randle’s time is coming. He’s seeing consistent targets. He’s seeing consistent targets in the red-zone. He’s clearly having his name called in the huddle. And now the loss of Victor Cruz means a new primary receiver must emerge for the Giants. The matchup with the clock-killing Cowboys isn’t great, as they allow the 2nd-fewest FPPG to WRs, but Randle should see the most supply he has all season this week. He is an upside GPP WR this week

TE Larry ‘Legend’ Donnell

The Legend knows that his 1-6 performance in Week 6 is causing you to lose faith. But this is just a test. The Legend will rise again, perhaps as early as this week, as the absence of Victor Cruz should mean extra targets for Eli Manning’s favorite safety blanket and red-zone target.

WR Odell Beckham JR

Like the rest of the Giants receivers, ODB is in line for added supply and responsibilities in the wake of Cruz’s injury. Beckham runs good routes and generates separation with ease – he will have explosive weeks when he draws favorable matchups. ODB’s emergence might not happen in his first week as a starter, but his big-play upside makes him worthy of consideration as a #3 WR or FLEX in GPPs this week.

RB Andre Williams

Williams is a game-flow dependent bruiser that should have opportunities in what Vegas projects as a high-scoring affair where the sharps favor the Giants.

Dallas Cowboys

RB DeMarco Murray

DeMarco Murray is the best running back in the NFL right now. He just eviscerated the Seahawks defense for 146 total yards and a TD. He is matchup proof. On we go.

WR Dez Bryant

Dez tangled with Richard Sherman last week and managed a respectable 4-63, shaking Sherman completely a few times. Dez would be in store for another tough matchup vs Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie this week, but DRC is banged up and is questionable this week; he didn’t practice this week but did travel with the team. If DRC can’t go, Dez gets a sizeable boost to his already elite status.

WR Terrance Williams

Williams was relatively quiet last week, save for his excellent toe-tapping sideline grab. He finished 2-70. Versus a banged up Giants secondary, Williams makes for a GPP-only option.

QB Tony Romo

Romo had an impressively efficient performance against the Seahawks, dropping 250 yards and 2 TDs on the defending champs. He has an unfavorable matchup vs the Giants, who allow the 9th-fewest FPPG to QBs, but should manage another serviceable effort.

Romo continues to click along efficiently while the O-line and Murray grind the Cowboys to victory. It’s a wonderful scheme, but not on that will likely pay DFS dividends against the Giants at home. There’s very little upside in rostering Romo this week.

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