NFL Grind Down: Week 8 - Page Five

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-10-30 17:18:13

Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints

Green Bay Packers						New Orleans Saints
Sun – 8:30 PM						Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		1.5	55	26.75				-1.5	55	28.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	28.4	4	4	18		Offense	25.8	10	5	5
Defense	25.8	10	5	5		Defense	28.4	4	4	18
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New Orleans Saints	25	23	31	2		Green Bay Packers	12	15	12	10
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Nelson	73	47	6	712		Colston	39	21	1	359
Cobb	48	35	8	452		Stills	20	15	1	244
Adams	26	17	2	188		Cooks	44	34	1	278
Quarless	19	13	2	116		Graham	49	34	3	376

Quick Grind

•Gary Oldman Seal of Approval: Target EVERYONE
•Monstrous Vegas total = scoring galore!…

Green Bay Packers

QB Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers relaxed his way to 255 and 3 TDs, with a fat 86% completion percentage against the Panthers. There’s not much to say about Rodgers’ play right now – he’s in complete control of both his offense and opposing defenses. His tour of collapsing defenses continues with the Saints this week, a generous unit allowing the 8th-most FPPG to QBs and sporting the 2nd WORST coverage grade in the NFL (per PFF). The Saints complete lack of a consistent pass rush basically ensures that Rodgers will pick them apart with ease. Rodgers is the top QB this week.

WR Jordy Nelson

Jordy casually ripped off 4-80-1 last week, including a 59-yard TD that was a thing of beauty. Go watch Jordy’s juke if you haven’t already. This week Jordy faces a bit stiffer test in former borderline-stud CB Keenan Lewis. Nelson has certainly torched tougher matchups than this, and even tougher matchups this season… but just know that if he has a somewhat quiet performance, it’s likely that Lewis played tight coverage and Rodgers simply decided to attack the Saints elsewhere (see below).

WR Randall Cobb

I said last week that Cobb ‘oozes upside’ in his matchup with the Panthers, and he indeed oozed all over the field en route to 6-121-1. His primary cover last week was even released in response to the whipping by Cobb. Cobb draws the friendliest set of matchups this week assuming Jordy draws shadow coverage, and should take turns beating up on what has become an island of misfit cornerbacks in New Orleans. Cobb is an elite play this week and the Packer receiver I want if I can only choose one.

WR Davante Adams

Adams followed up a 6-77 Week 6 with a 1-21-1 Week 7 and continues to be rewarded for his separation and route-winning. He’s in a great spot as a GPP WR this week as all the Packers receivers should eat this week.

RB Eddie Lacy

Lacy managed to punch in a TD last week… but again received an insufficient amount of carries to be of any real value to use (12 carries, 63 yards). Until his usage changes, and it doesn’t’ seem like it will, Lacy is a low-upside, TD-dependent #2 RB

New Orleans Saints

QB Drew Brees

It took him 8 weeks, but Drew Brees finally SHOWED us that he’s back, dropping 342-2-1 on a very tough Lions defense last week. Expect more of the same this week from Brees, who Vegas has pegged to put up oodles (scientific term) of points this week. The Packers have been somewhat tough on QBs – allowing the 12th-fewest FPPG, and forcing more INTs on average than average TDs allowed. The Packers also sport a dangerous combination of the 3rd-highest team pass coverage grade, and the 10th-highest pass-rush grade. It’s certainly a tough matchup for Brees and Co, but again, the sheer volume of scoring expected from the Saints suggests Brees will see the pass volume necessary for a monster day. He’s a top-5 play with a monster ceiling this week.

TE Jimmy Graham

It doesn’t appear as though Jimmy Graham will go full-decoy again this week, which means we should be getting at least a fraction of the elite talent we know and love if we roster him. I’m not sure I would recommend it given you can now choose a fully healthy Gronk instead, but there doesn’t figure to be many people on Graham this week due to this injury. So, if he’s the featured guy in the red-zone, as has happened before when he’s been limited, you could be getting access to a 2 TD ceiling that not many others are on this week.

Saints WRs

Choosing the proper Saints WRs this week might not be as difficult as in past weeks, because the volume of passing and scoring this game should be able to support additional receiving options. Colston had one of his blowup games last week against the lions, hauling in 6 catches for 111 yards and completely abusing the middle of the field. I don’t anticipate it being so easy this week against former All-Pro slot CB Casey Hayward. From the tall to the small, rookie Brandin Cooks fizzled last week, pulling in just 2 catches for 23 yards. The Saints seem to be steadily getting away from the high-percentage work they were giving Cooks to start the season, so be wary expecting a high floor from him right now. Finally, the deep ball maestro Kenny Stills had a big game last week, with 5 for 103 and a TD. When Stills is fully healthy, he converts big plays at a staggering rate, so keep him in mind if you’re stacking and looking for an extra GPP WR.

And Then There Were Two: the Saints RBs

It was only last week that the Saints backfield was basically back to full strength, and now they’re down to just 2 healthy members. Both Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas are already declared out for this week, leaving Travaris Cadet to handle PT’s pass-heavy work, and Mark Ingram as the lone grinder and goal-line maven. Cadet makes an intriguing option on full PPR sites, but I much prefer Ingram. Ingram will have all the early down work to himself, as well as goal-line opportunities that should be especially plentiful in this game. If Ingram manages any of the passing or third-down work as well, he’s going to be receiving monstrous volume relative to his price. And when you factor in the matchup with a porous

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys

Washington Redskins						Dallas Cowboys
Mon – 8:30 PM						AT&T Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		9.5	49.5	20				-9.5	49.5	29.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.6	23	13	16		Offense	28.0	5	11	2
Defense	28.0	5	11	2		Defense	21.6	23	13	16
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Dallas Cowboys	8	8	4	31		Washington Redskins	30	1	23	17
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Garcon	53	35	3	396		Bryant	69	45	4	590
Jackson	47	26	3	528		Williams	32	19	6	338
Roberts	41	22	2	237		Beasley	16	13	0	109
Reed	18	14	0	150		Witten	35	23	1	266

Quick Grind

•Higher Vegas total and plenty of tasty DFS options
•Be careful targeting Redskins with Colt McCoy at QB

Washington Redskins

TE Jordan Reed

The one thing that seems to ring true for most replacement QBs, especially those with arm talent limitations – they LOVE throwing to the TE. And Reed presents a unique evolution of the traditional safety blanket TE in that he can both gain separation with ease, and actually make plays after the catch. So simple high-percentage routes to Jordan Reed can end up being chunkier than the route itself would have yielded with an average talent at TE. But beyond Reed’s physical advantages, he seemed to clearly have a connection with McCoy last week, and was featured in high-leverage situations. Since Reed is both the easiest for McCoy to reach with his wimp arm, and is already being targeted by him, it seem pretty clear that Reed is the Redskin you want this week.

Redskins WRs

When it comes to the effect of Colt McCoy on the Redskins playmakers, I’m primarily worried about the WRs. Can McCoy even throw a deep ball to DJax? Can he force feed Garcon enough to make him relevant? The fact that we must ask these questions outlines just how risky the Redskins plays are. If I had to choose a Redskins WR, I probably would go with DJax, just because I assume McCoy knows to at least attempt play-action deep shots to the speedster. He took a couple shots at him last week at least. These deeper targets are likely to amount to more, quicker, than the handful of screen-like targets Garcon seems to be getting. In any case, be careful targeting Redskins WRs anywhere outside of GPPs

RB Alfred Morris

Morris has been a pretty colossal disappointment this season. He churned out 54 yards on 18 carries vs the Titans, but outside a 14-yard scamper, Morris averaged just 2.35 YPC on his 17 other totes. Expecting a monstrous workload probably isn’t realistic this week, as I think Washington could get blown out with ease. In that case we’ll unfortunately see a lot more Roy Helu. I would avoid Morris until the Redskins QB situation settles and the offense starts to click again.

Dallas Cowboys

RB DeMarco Murray

DeMarco Murray is the best running back in the NFL right now. He just eviscerated the Giants defense for 132 total yards and a TD. He is matchup proof. On we go.

WR Dez Bryant

I love Dez this week. He seems to be completely locked in right now, and is coming off a beastly 9 catch, 151 yard performance vs the Giants more-than-capable secondary. He even had a TD called a yard short. Now Dez gets the hapless Redskins secondary, who allow the 10th-most FPPG to WRs and have the WORST COVERAGE GRADE IN THE NFL (per PFF). Without CB DeAngelo Hall, who did an excellent job limiting Dez last season, the Redskins literally have no one capable of slowing Dez down. This could be a blood bath, especially if the run game stalls a bit and Romo leans on Dez to keep the chains moving. Dez is an elite top-3 option this week.

WR Terrance Williams

Williams was nearly a box score bust last week, but his lone catch was an 18-yard TD. It’s big plays/TDs or nothing for Williams, who doesn’t see consistent chain-moving targets, and is usually found flying downfield. But given the Redskins coverage ineptitude, this is as good a matchup as any to take a shot on Williams ripping off a big play. He’s in play as a #3 WR in GPPs.

QB Tony Romo

Romo continues to make people forget about his slow start with clinical performances like last weeks 279 yard, 3 TD effort where Romo completed nearly 74% of his passes. DeMarco Murray’s excellence frees up a lot of space on the outside, and Dez is simply unstoppable right now, which makes Romo’s decision-making awfully easy. He should have another smooth weak against the Redskins, as they allow the 3rd-most FPPG to QBs and have been beaten repeatedly for big plays this season. Romo probably won’t be needed to throw 40 passes, but he’s fully capable of putting together a top-10 performance against this secondary before he trades helmet for baseball cap.

Hope you enjoyed the #GrindDown this week. If you did, drop a comment below, tweet me, or just send me an unmarked envelope filled with Orange Starburst.

Good luck this week!