NFL Grind Down: Week 8 - Page Three

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-10-25 20:50:53

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

Buffalo Bills						New York Jets
Sun – 1:00 PM						MetLife Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	41	19				-3	41	22
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	19.3	27	22	29		Offense	17.3	28	31	10
Defense	17.3	28	31	10		Defense	19.3	27	22	29
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New York Jets	32	9	21	28		Buffalo Bills	13	2	24	14
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Watkins	61	35	4	433		Decker	41	24	3	323
Woods	48	25	1	244		Harvin	26	22	0	133
Hogan	14	12	1	162		Kerley	45	22	1	201
Chandler	34	22	0	278		Cumberland	26	15	1	154

Quick Grind

•Lowest total of the week limits appeal
•Will Percy Harvin have an effect in his first game as a Jet?
•Avoid RBs against both run defenses

Buffalo Bills

WR Sammy Watkins

So Sammy Watkins has officially arrived. The rook completely eviscerated the Vikings defense last week – burning up basically the entire Vikings CB group in man coverage and also tearing open the Vikings zone schemes as well. When the page turned on Week 7, Watkins had amassed 9 catches for 122 yards and 2 TDs. As I’ve mentioned before, and is especially obvious now – this kid’s ceiling is immense. Kyle Orton is capable enough to feed Watkins properly and give him access to his ceiling. And this week, Watkins has a pretty excellent shot at an encore against a Jets secondary completely devoid of talent at CB, and allowing the 12th-most FPPG to WRs. The only way the Jets can contain Watkins is if their pass-rush can bury Orton quickly. Fire Watkins up as an ideal GPP WR, with both a high floor and high ceiling this week.

Bills Defense

It’s kind of sad, but the 2nd-best Bills play this week is arguably their Defense. The Bills dual-threat defensive front has been completely stoning opposing run games, while also leading the league in sacks. Given Geno Smiths’ occasional absentminded ball handling, the Bills D could really start snowballing points if they’re able to establish their pressure early. They make for a top-tier play this week.

The Bills Replacement RBs

Given injuries to both Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller, it looks to be the Boobie Dixon and Bryce Brown show in the Bills backfield this week. Unfortunately we can only speculate on how the carries will actually shake out. Reports suggest the Bills coaches are enamored with Dixon, and given his prior usage it seems likely that Dixon becomes the ‘Fred Jackson’ type traditional runner. Bryce Brown had been inactive until this week but is eerily similar in running tendencies and skillset to CJ Spiller. Brown is the x-factor/wild-card in this backfield, with the talent to dominate even tough matchups like this one. Both backs carry substantial risk this week considering the unknowns in the carry distribution, and the imposing Jets front seven. Dixon seems like a high-floor but low-ceiling play; Brown is the opposite, risky due to a low-floor but hypothetically high-ceiling.

QB Kyle Orton

The steady Orton (283-2-1 last week) deserves mention here due to his matchup with a Jets defense that allows the most FPPG and passing TDs per game to QBs. He’s a sneaky GPP option.

New York Jets

RB Chris Ivory

Chris ‘Mini Beast-Mode’ Ivory singlehandedly kept his team in the game last week, repeatedly bashing through the Pats defense on his way to 21-107-1 on the ground and an unexpectedly awesome 4-18 through the air. Ivory has the strength and violence to his game to make defenses look soft. I’m not sure he can bring the same kind of pain to the Bills though, as they currently allow just 70 rushing yards per game and the 2nd-fewest FPPG to RBs. The Bills remarkable defensive front consistently punch holes in opposing run games and deserves every bit of their top-3 run defense grade on PFF. Ivory is a risky play vs this defense, but, as was the case last week, will be fed heavily as the Jets try to stay afloat offensively.

WR Percy Harvin

What should we expect from Percy in his first game as a Jet? Conflicting reports suggest anything from a limited number of snaps to more than a dozen touches. Depending on your risk tolerance, he could make for a theoretical GPP play – but keep in mind we saw basically none of his “upside” in Seattle. If you trust the Jets coaches to either use Percy correctly or even just prove that they are able to use him at all, then fire him up in a GPP lineup.

WR Eric Decker

We’ve been blessed with another Probable tag for Decker, and it seems like he’ll be about as healthy this week as we’ve seen him the whole season. Last week, he managed a respectable 4-65, not far off the line I suggested in last Thursday’s piece. This will likely be Decker’s floor most weeks. I think his production should see a bit of a boost with the arrival of Percy Harvin, starting this week. The Bills secondary is nothing to be scared of – they allow the 9th-most FPPG to WRs, and have been repeatedly whipped on the outside in 2014. Decker is a solid #2 WR this week, and is an interesting GPP stack target with Geno and Percy.

QB Geno Smith

It’s always dangerous to put extra trust in Geno following a solid effort, but I thought his performance vs the Pats was encouraging. He also got back to adding chunks of yards on the ground (7-37). Unfortunately, as a lover of the Bills defensive line, I have serious concerns about Geno staying upright this week. If the Jets OL can find a way to slow the onslaught, I do think the Jets playmakers can exploit the Bills secondary. Geno is a risky GPP play, but can reach value in a hurry if he continues to take advantage of his athleticism.

Jets TEs

Well, I was wrong about Amaro being the Jet to own last week, but at least I targeted the correct position. It turned out that forgotten man Jeff Cumberland was the receiving hero vs the Pats, racking up 3 catches for 50 yards and the crucial TD (yes, 3-50-1 is a big deal in Jets Land). Amaro managed 3-22 on 5 targets, so the Jets TE position as a whole was a very solid 6-72-1 on 9 targets. I still think Amaro is the DFS play on a weekly basis, but if this split continues you won’t want to roster any Jets TE.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

Houston Texans						Tennessee Titans
Sun – 1:00 PM						LP Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-2	42.5	22.25				2	42.5	20.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	22.1	20	29	9		Offense	17.3	28	28	21
Defense	17.3	28	28	21		Defense	22.1	20	29	9
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Tennessee Titans	17	14	18	29		Houston Texans	18	21	26	9
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Johnson	63	39	1	496		Wright	48	32	4	297
Hopkins	43	31	3	474		Washington	29	13	0	169
Posey						Hunter	38	16	1	320
Graham	17	12	0	122		Walker	49	31	3	438

Quick Grind

•Target Arian Foster as a top RB play
•Target weakness in Titans secondary

Houston Texans

RB Arian Foster

Foster is simply a beautiful RB to watch when he’s healthy, weaving through defenses with balanced power and deceptive burst. His skillset and mountainous carry volume basically make the Zen RB matchup proof in DFS. This week Foster faces a Titans defense that has Titan-ed (see what I did there?) against the run the last two weeks, but remains exploitable. The Titans have limited the Redskins and Jaguars RBs recently – yawn – but of course were bulldozed by Ben Tate for 121 yards in Week 5. Foster can easily outperform his former backup this week. He’s a top-5 option.

Texans WRs – Beating up on Blidi

Both Andre Johnson (5-77) and DeAndre Hopkins (6-108) are coming off strong weeks and are poised to beat up on the Titans porous secondary, so long as The Amish Rifle can get them the ball. As we do each week in the #GrindDown, we’re going to be trying to pick on Titans CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson. BWW has been notably awful this season, and currently sports the 7th-worst CB coverage grade in the NFL. If there’s a big pass play highlight against the Titans – you’ll probably see BWW trailing the receiver. Both Andre and Hopkins make strong #2-type WR plays this week, with Andre consistent enough for cash games and Nuk better suited for GPPs.

Texans Defense

With the QB Carousal continuing in Tennessee, expect the Texans Defense to be among the most popular this week. And for good reason: the Titans have yet to establish a run game, have little to no downfield passing attack (your time will come, Justin Hunter), and now are starting a rookie QB. And did I mention the Texans should get Jadeveon Clowney back this week? JJ Watt and the Texans pass rush shall feast. The Titans only hope is that Watt gets full early.

Tennessee Titans

QB Zach Mettenberger

The Age of Mettenberger has begun. And you know what that means! Oh, you don’t? Neither do I actually; and neither does anyone else. We’re all in the dark here in regards to Mettenberger’s potential this week and going forward, but what we do know is that for better or worse, Mettenberger will never again face a defense that has such little relevant film on him. Playing Mettenberger is certainly a risk, as the recurring struggles of this season’s other rookie QBs has taught us. But his upside is also a large unknown. So if you believe in this kid’s potential, don’t be afraid to target him in a GPP this week. You won’t get a similar opportunity again, and neither will he.

WR Justin Hunter

Hunter and the other Titans receivers basically get a clean slate now that they’ve got this new, big-armed QB at the helm of the offense. The combination of Mettenberger and Hunter almost makes too much sense – if their preseason hookups were any indication of how the Titans will attack defenses with Mettenberger running the show, then Hunter becomes a pretty obvious GPP play.

The Rest of the Titans Passing Attack

Beyond the encouraging possibilities of the Mettenberger-Hunter connection, I think rostering other Titans pass catchers is a risky proposition until we understand Mettenberger’s tendencies and whether the offensive philosophy will change at all in his stead. So unless you’re full-on stacking the Titans, or banking on Walker to remain his usual ‘QB’s best friend’ self, I would use caution with Titans playmakers this week.

RB Bishop Sankey

We’re still waiting on a Sankey breakout, as the rook ground out just 56 yards on 16 carries last week. Shonn Greene returns this week to make things more complicated than they need to be. The threat of Greeene siphoning even a handful of carries from the thus-far-inefficient Sankey has me leaning toward avoiding the situation altogether. The silver lining here is that the Titans will assuredly elect to lean on the run game as they break in their rookie QB, which could lead to plenty of carries for Sankey… if the Titans can keep this game close. You won’t have many people on an island with you if you’re rostering Sankey again this week.

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Minnesota Vikings						Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun – 1:00 PM						Raymond James Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	42	19.5				-3	42	22.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	17.1	30	32	11		Offense	20.0	25	26	24
Defense	20.0	25	26	24		Defense	17.1	30	32	11
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	29	27	32	25		Minnesota Vikings	3	29	15	5
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Patterson	36	19	1	213		Jackson	60	25	2	344
Jennings	43	26	1	345		Evans	35	21	2	258
Wright	34	22	0	273		Murphy	27	16	2	206
Ellison	9	5	0	81		Myers	18	15	0	136

Quick Grind

•Anemic offenses and low total = limited appeal
•Both teams have intriguing GPP plays

Minnesota Vikings

RB Jerick McKinnon

Jerick McKinnon’s upside bears mentioning despite a horrible matchup with a Bills team that boasts the 2nd-best run defense grade on Pro Football Focus. The Bills have had no problem shutting down opposing RBs in 2014, and allow just 13.3 FPPG, the stingiest mark in the NFL. However, McKinnon’s big play potential and increasing role in the passing game (6 catches for 42 yards last week) make him a contrarian GPP play this week.

I thought McKinnon had a bit of upside last week despite the rugged matchup, and he was able to churn out 103 rushing yards on 19 carries. Not bad for a rookie running behind a completely overmatched offensive line, against one of the stoutest run defenses in the NFL. McKinnon will likely have a confused look on his face this week, as he’ll be wondering how he’s able to hit the second-level so easily against this defense when it seemed so difficult last week. The Bucs have given up nearly 200 yards to RBs each of the past two weeks, and now sport the NFL’s worst run defense grade on PFF. McKinnon could go berserk this week.

QB Teddy Bridgewater

Teddy struggled yet again last week as the Vikings offensive line was demolished by another elite defensive front. With his DFS bandwagon basically empty, and a matchup with the QB pick-me-up known as the Tampa Bay Bucs on the horizon, Bridgewater re-enters the GPP discussion this week. The Bucs have of course been [insert synonym for being absolutely destroyed here] by opposing QB, and are allowing the most passing yards and 2nd-most passing TDs to QBs this season. They also have a bottom-10 pass rush, which should prompt a collective sigh of relief from the constantly embarrassed Vikings offensive line. Teddy can handle this matchup. He’s a viable punt QB in GPPs.

WR Cordarrelle Patterson

Patterson kind-of salvaged last week with a screen TD, but otherwise had another forgettable outing in which he wasn’t manufactured touches to a high degree, and also wasn’t able to create opportunities on his own. Nothing suggests that Patterson will be used any differently this week, making him an exceptionally high risk. It’s a shame, of course, because the Bucs defense has given up so many big plays and TDs to WRs that it’s fair to wonder if their defense is betting against themselves each week. The Bucs allow the most FPPG to WRs by a wide margin (a full 3.5 fantasy points more than the 2nd worst team). We know Patterson has hypothetical GPP-winning potential, and now gets the most favorable matchup in the NFL… the bold (or masochistic) will continue to fire away with CP. The sane jumped off this bandwagon weeks ago.

WR Greg Jennings

While Patterson gets top billing every week due to his big play flash, Jennings is the consistent option. He doesn’t offer much upside but is capable of solid full-PPR lines. As Teddy becomes more comfortable, Jennings floor and ceiling should increase.

WR Jarius Wright

Rounding out the Vikes passing ‘attack’ is Wright, who continues to flash the connection he’s built with Teddy Bridgewater. He hauled in 4-60 vs the Bills, as continues to make the most of his targets. If you’re on the Vikes as a GPP stack target this week, don’t forget about Wright.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

WR Vincent Jackson

I advised avoiding VJax back in Week 6, as he drew the coverage of prototype CB Jimmy Smith. Hopefully folks listened, because although Jackson still received a barrage of 13 targets, he converted them into just 4 catches for 66 yards. This week Vjax has escaped from the clutches of the 6’2, 209 lb Smith and faces the Vikings 6’1, 210 lb CB Xavier Rhodes. Jackson will again be pressed at the line, and Vikes HC Mike Zimmer will likely do whatever he can to bottle up the towering playmaker. Jackson is a strong #2 WR or FLEX in GPPs.

WR Mike Evans

Evans returned from injury in Week 6 and promptly got back to his 2014 norm, hauling in 4 catches for 55 yards and a TD. So far in 2014 Evans is averaging 4-51, a reliable floor that he can easily supplement with TDs in any given week. His TD upside makes Evans a weekly GPP possibility.

RB Doug Martin

Martin has demonstrated very little upside so far in 2014, but has also had little opportunity to do so as the Bucs are continually blown out. But if there was ever a week where Martin had a shot to be DFS relevant, it’s this week. The Vikings allow 115.9 rushing yards per game and the 4th-most FPPG to RBs. They’ve also been especially consistent in their generosity, allowing at least 110 rushing yards in 5 of their last 6, and at least 1 TD in 5 of their last 6 as well. It shapes up well for the game flow dependent Martin, as he finally should be fed consistent carries in a game that projects to be a low-scoring affair favoring the Bucs. If you can click his name without feeling too much shame, Martin makes for a matchup-based #2 RB play this week.

TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins

The ASJ Experience gained a tiny bit of steam in Week 6, with the monstrous rookie hauling in 4 catches for 58 yards. With an entire bye week to ponder how best to use their future matchup nightmare, will the Bucs coaches finally feed ASJ more targets? We can only hope, but the matchup this week doesn’t inspire confidence, as the Vikes allow the 5th-fewest FPPG to TEs. I fully believe ASJ will become a matchup-proof weapon within the next few years, but until we see a few more consistent weeks from him we should search for GPP treasure elsewhere.

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