NFL Week 8 - Dream Matchups
NFL Week 8 Matchup Rankings
Week 8 – Matchup Based Value Plays
A dream matchup is when you have an RB that consistently gets 17-plus touches per game or a WR that consistently gets 7 plus targets per game, is paired with a bottom five defense in their respective categories. This is when players become ‘must-plays’, and this week is a ‘dream matchup’ week. Each of the worst six rushing defenses is going against a featured running-back getting 17-plus carries, except for Jamaal Charles who is an exception to the rule since he leads the league with a beastly 6.0 Yards Per Carry. The following Running Back can be played with confidence this week, and better yet, a few of them could be really cheap!
- Jamaal Charles – He is the best Running Back in the NFL. It’s a shame he has to share touches.
- Frank Gore – Mr. consistency this season. Safe pick with huge upside.
- Marshawn Lynch – 24 touches last week vs. the Bears. He is locked in as the featured back in Seattle.
- Ryan Torain – He may not be explosive, but he proved he can exploit bad Rush D’s against Indy.
- Arian Foster – Last time Foster met Indy – things got ugly. With Indy’s injury situation, it might be worse this time. Try to find a way to afford Foster this week.
- Beanie Wells – After 1 and a half seasons of speculation, Beanie Wells is finally the starter. He’s got a great matchup to get started with.
For Wide Receivers, a ‘must-play’ is often harder to define due to the variety of lock-down corners and them receiving fewer attempts to make plays in general than running backs to make plays than running-backs. However, they do exist, and this is our list of WRs that are averaging 4.5 or more receptions per game and are paired against a bottom five pass defense:
- Calvin Johnson – Calvin has looked good the last 2 games, and he’s rested the shoulder. He’s poised for a monster game now that the Lions have Stafford back at the helm.
- Santana Moss – In PPR he is a great value pick this week (as is Armstrong). In non-PPR you have to make a decision
- Miles Austin – You might need to downgrade Miles a little with Kitna. I’m listing him because he meets the statistical criteria, but I wouldn’t blame you for passing up on him this week either.
- Reggie Wayne – If he doesn’t break 100 yards receiving, I’ll be a little surprised. Garcon should also have a mammoth game in this division rivalry
Analyzing Matchups
Knowing how to adjust a players value based on their matchup can be difficult, especially early in the season when you have less data on that player and their opponents. RotoGrinders Matchup Ratings make that process easier for you by quantifying the data for you. This matchup rater tool should provide an excellent resource for properly adjusting the value of your offensive players for this week’s matchups. This is not a tool for ranking Fantasy Defenses. This tool focuses on the defensive categories that related to offensive players. The scoring for Fantasy Defenses often include Special Teams and scoring is based on Points Allowed; these are not included in the Matchup Ratings below. The Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game column is the number you should use to gauge how to increase or decrease the value of your Offensive players.
Rushing
Best Matchups
| Projected Rank | Rush Defense | Projected Fantasy Points Allowed | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Bills | 24.5 | Kansas City |
| 2 | Denver Broncos | 21.5 | San Francisco |
| 3 | Oakland Raiders | 21.1 | Seattle |
| 4 | Detroit Lions | 20.3 | Washington |
| 5 | Indianapolis Colts | 19.9 | Houston |
| 6 | Tampa Bay | 19.9 | Arizona |
Worst Matchups
| Projected Rank | Rush Defense | Projected Fantasy Points Allowed | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Tennessee | 12.2 | St. Louis |
| 30 | Minnesota | 12.1 | Philadelphia |
| 31 | New York Jets | 11.9 | Denver Broncos |
| 32 | Pittsburgh | 10.0 | Cleveland |
| Week 8 Byes | Falcons – Ravens – Bears – Browns – Giants – Eagles |
|---|
Receiving
(These do not factor in how many total receptions a team allows, which could effect the rankings for PPR leagues)
Best Matchups
| Projected Rank | Pass Defense | Projected Fantasy Points Allowed | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston | 40.0 | Indianapolis |
| 2 | New England | 37.3 | Minnesota |
| 3 | Jacksonville | 37.1 | Dallas |
| 4 | Washington | 34.2 | Detroit |
| 5 | Detroit | 34.0 | Washington |
Worst Matchups
| Projected Rank | Pass Defense | Projected Fantasy Points Allowed | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Carolina | 25.0 | St. Louis |
| 31 | New Orleans | 24.9 | Pittsburgh |
| 32 | San Diego | 23.9 | Tennessee |
| Week 8 Byes | Falcons – Ravens – Bears – Browns – Giants – Eagles |
|---|
How we Rank the Matchups
We rank the weekly NFL matchups for opposing teams by looking at yards allowed and touchdowns allowed by defenses, then weight them based on recent performance. The number we wind up with is a reliable estimate of how many fantasy points a defense is giving up at the current point in time, per week, to all players on an opposing team. This estimate makes for a great indicator to project matchups in the future. Below are the defenses estimated to allow the most fantasy points headed into Week 3, and the ones you should steer clear of. The number in the third column is the estimated amount of fantasy points this defense is allowing currently per matchup. We project the fantasy points based on 1 pt. per 10 rushing/receiving yards and 6 points per TD. The ‘receiving fantasy points allowed estimate’ can also be used to gauge your QB matchups, and while the scoring settings may adjust the points allowed to QBs, the overall order of the rankings for receivers should be similar for QBs. These rankings utilize all data from the 2010 season, but we also include data from the 2010 preseason (first half only), and the 2009 NFL regular season. As each week passes this season, we scale down the older data increase the value of current season performance. By Week 12 of this Season, the data from the 2010 Preseason and the 2009 Season will be completely phased out.